Two words sum it up: Scott Boras, whose photo is to the right. I’m not trying to say anything bad about him, but…. it’s all his fault. See, Scott Boras has some of the best free agents in baseball in his stable and there are two major factors:
- Boras is asking the moon for some of his clients; and
- He has swindled many a GM in the past.
It is rumored that he is asking north of $200 million for Jake Arrietta and JD Martinez – I believe that both will get closer to $100 million than $200 million. Scot Boras is a Master Salesman – he bring all the supporting documents, metrics and methodically puts on a sales pitch like a commissioned water treatment salesman at the kitchen sink with a seductive sales pitch!
You only have to look back and see how Boras boondoggled teams in the past. Case-in-point: Prince Fielder was a horrid runner and an ever worse fileder, but Boras convinced Mike Ilitch to pay $214 million for him, preying upon Ilitch’s desire to win a World Series before he died.
JD Martinez is also a horrid fielder, but Boras wants $200 million? Arrietta is clearly on the down-side of his career and Boras wants $200 million. IT AIN’T HAPPENING! He also controls Eric Hosmer. Those three free agents are the TOP ones and will set the market. It’s unlikely that any big names, including Yelich will move until that market is set. This also impacts the trade market as GM wait and see where the pieces fall.
Right now, Borasss is waiting to see who blinks first. I have read on other boards where fans are calling for Andrew Friedman’s head due to his failure to get Giancarlo Stanton or sign any other expensive Free Agents. These fans have their heads where the sun don’t shine, because when a teams signs a big name free agent to a big time contract, it almost always ends badly! It’s the path to losing… not winning!
- Carl Crawfish
- Prince Fielder
- Pablo Sandoval
- Josh Hamilton
- Barry Zito
- Albery Pujols
- David Price
- Zack Greinke
- Johnny Cueto
- Chris Davis
- … there’s more.
I don’t understand fans who want to make these big free agent signings. It almost always ends badly. It’s truly insanity to do the same thing over-and-over and expect different results. I am fine without Stanton, Arietta, Martinez and Darvish. I hear that the Astros are close to getting Gerrit Cole. OK, but I am fine with the team the Dodgers have. Christain Yelich makes so much more sense tha Giancarlo Stanton but the Marlins are trying to get a King’s Ranson for him. I’d love to see him in Blue… but first, someone has to blink!
Something to Consider
What if Walker Buehler is Lights Out in the Spring? He’s another year removed from TJ. I can see him pitching 150 innings. I can also see him making the team out of Spring Training. I’m not saying he will – I am saying he can! That’s a game-changer!
Discussion (65)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I hear the D-Bags are pushing hard for Machado. That would improve the Bags a lot. It should also empty their farm system. Do it, Kendrick!
If that idea didn’t drive you crazy, this one will–Kiebert Ruiz for Realmuto.
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Realmuto is Realgood, but Kaybear just might be Realspecial. NO! … and I would not blink. He’s the most untouchable prospect on the roster to me.
I saw video of Kemp working out at Dodger Stadium with the veterans then a photo of him with Kenley and someone else at the Lakers game. Kemp looked fat in the photo.
MLB Network this morning talked about AZ and Machado possibilities. Said now was the window for making that trade due to the Dodgers only getting better and Goldy and Pollock in their primes. Also, if they arn’t able to re-sign Goldy in three years it will be because of Greinke’s contract.
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Not that I want to see Machado with AZ but because AZ might have an interest in trading Greinke, I wonder if the Dodgers could be involved in a three team trade. Greinke has 4 more years on his contract averaging $34.5M annually. So, Kemp and Ryu to AZ, Greinke to LA, Grandal to Orioles, Machado to AZ, players from AZ to Orioles.
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If that idea didn’t drive you crazy, this one will–Kiebert Ruiz for Realmuto.
Mark; Read your first post and finally understood why you came to my house while I was considering water softener system—- you smooth seller. Seems to me that the major reason that the market for free agents this year is because everyone is so concerned about what might be available next year in free agency.
Grandal signs for $7.9 MM; Baez for $1.5 MM per MLB Trade Rumors.
This post got me to thinking more about Scott Boras. He has had some memorable contracts. While he does a great job for his client, that is not always the case for the teams. Some have worked out for the
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2014
Jacoby Ellsbury – 7 years $153M – This has not turned out well at all for the Yankees.
Shin Soo Choo – 7 years $130M – 2015 has been the only good year in the contract thus far. I think the Rangers would like to give this one back.
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2015
Max Scherzer – 7 years $210M – Back to back CY Awards. Nationals have to be happy how this one has turned out.
Elvis Andrus – 8 years $120M – 2015 not so good, 2016 and 2017 much better – So far the Rangers cannot complain. We will see what happens in the next five years.
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2016
Chris Davis – 7 years $161M – This is going to be problem contract throughout. Peter Angelos deserves this. He has had 2 good years in his career, and he gets this contract.
Ian Kennedy – 5 years $70M – Nobody is knocking on the Royals door to take Ian Kennedy with this contract.
Wei-Yin Chen – 5 years $80 – What were the Marlins thinking?
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2017
Adrian Beltre – 2 years $36M – He is still producing at 38. He needs about a 1 WAR in 2018 to for this contract to value out. I think he does that and MORE.
Stephen Strasburg – 7 years $175M – Still early, but this looks like it could be a very good deal. He is 29 and has 2 opt out years (after 20109 & 2020). Right now, neither party is complaining.
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Out of the nine, Scherzer, Strasburg, and Beltre seem to be good deals for the team. Andrus is still a wait and see, and Ellsbury, Choo, Davis, Kennedy, Chen are not good deals for their teams. Teams need to be very skeptical when dealing with Boras.
I just read that Cody Bellinger has put on 15 pounds of muscle through conditioning and nutrition.
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Yikes!
Houston Mitchell and La sports writer for the Dodgers says there was a radio interview in Texas with Clayton Kershaw stating that he might opt out after 2018 and sign with Texas or Houston.
If Jeter is looking for something like I posted the Dodgers will walk away because there is absolutely no reason to overpay. We disagree on Thompson and Pederson, especially Thompson.
If the Dodgers want Yelich they can make the trade happen but it will cost 4 or 5 players that Jeter will not ask for but more likely demand, why not he doesn’t have to trade Yelich and if he does he must get as much as he can. Thompson, I don’t see him as any help just more reason for Miami fans to stay away. Pederson, maybe but not sure Jeter sees him as much help, so he goes most likely after Verdugo and Alverez to start the conversation and see if the Dodgers are still listing. If they are then why not go after Will Smith, Toles, and another high ranking pitching prospect. It will take something like that to get Yelich.
I don’t think Kemp would be a draw anywhere, but with Miami maybe just a painful reminder of what they lost.
OK, the Marlins need to unload salary… but they could use a draw… a draw like Matt Kemp.
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So here’s the deal:
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Dodgers Trade:
Matt Kemp: $21.5 mil in 2018 and $21.5 mil in 2019;
Joc Pederson: $2 mil in 2018;
Will Smith
Dustin May
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to the Marlins for:
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Christain Yelich – $7 mil in 2018, $9.7 mil in 2019, $12.5 mil in 2020, $14 mil in 2021
Wei-Yin Chen – $10 mil in 2018, $20 mil in 2019, $22 mil in 2020
Martin Prado – $13.5 mil in 2018, $15 mil in 2019
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The Marlins save $7 million in salary in 2018, $22 mil in 2019, $24 mil in 2020 and $14 mil in 2021
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Maybe Prado and Chen can provide something…
Sun Su
“Have patience and no one can hurt you “
FAZ has Patience and will deal with Boras.
In almost every one of Boras’ negotiations, he does not involve the client. He also does not like to have his clients sign extensions beyond the 1st year of free agency. The only one I remember where the client got involved was with Stephen Strasburg who insisted he wanted to resign with the Nats and before he became a free agent. Boras knows that players get emotionally involved and that could create a negative negotiation scenario so he insists that clients stay out of the negotiation process. Boras agreed, but built in 2 opt out clauses for Strasburg.
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I am in the middle of reading “The Big Chair”, and Chapter 5 is about the negotiations between the Cubs and Greg Maddux’s before his walk year and then when he became a free agent. Boras would meet with Cubs’ management (including Ned Colletti), but always without Maddux. The Cubs made what they believed was a very fair offer and Boras told them that it was a non-starter even though it was just below what Clemens and Gooden were making who were the two best pitchers in the game at the time. The offer was later increased to be more than both Clemens and Gooden and was also turned down. Boras wanted to make a statement with Maddux. Not just to get Maddux to get the best contract (financially) he could get, but also to show other potential clients what he could do.
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Cubs ownership told Colletti that the case was closed and they have moved on from Maddux. Even when Colletti learned that Maddux would accept the last offer the Cubs made so he could stay in Chicago, the Cubs told Colletti the case was closed and to never bring it up again. Maddux signed with the Braves for 5 years and $28M after Boras turned down the Cubs non-starter offer of 5 years $28M all the while Maddux professed to have wanted to stay in Chicago.
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Boras represents his clients extremely well and gets the best financial deal they can get, but not necessarily the best deal from the player’s standpoint. Boras is a Class A egotist whose self importance is just much of an influencing criteria as anything else.
Manny and Bryce. No? Prolly right.
This could be the off season that Boras is finally caught overplaying his hand. Then again the owners and GM’s never fail to amaze me with the silly contracts they agree to. There are a number of factors at play here as others have laid out well and Boras is not alone among agents trying to extract the most $$ for their clients. The easiest solution is for teams to not go beyond 3 to 4 years for guaranteed contracts and not agree to opt outs or full no trade clauses. There are only a handful of players worthy of that in each off season and NONE in my opinion are worthy of that this year. The fact the players like Lynn, Cobb and Cain turned down $17.4 M to test the market is mind boggling to me as none are worth that much $$, again IMO. Jay Bruce just signed for 3 years and $39 M to go back to the Mets and that’s about what I think those 3 will get, especially when they cost draft picks.
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It is still a ways off but the Dodgers could buy out some arbitration years of Cory and Cody and lock them up to a long term deal like the Angels did with Trout who would have been a free agent this season. When the time comes the team will spend to keep their own and Boras may blink.
You know Mark, it still amazes me that some Dodger fans think we missed the ship on Stanton. My son checks out alot of other sites and listens to sportstalk radio at times, and he had a great analogy. “You know pops, one thing I have noticed is there are a lot of just Dodger “Fans” out there, who don’t see the behind the scenes thinking of the front office, or how the market is set. They just want the shiniest jewel in the box, regardless of the consequences years down the line. I really think that all of us, you included, have really found out some interesting lessons from FAZ and how they think. One thing I have noticed, is they are PATIENT. It drives me friggin crazy sometimes, but they are right about 90% of the time on some of these deals, or even lack of deals. Then, BAM!!! They unload a bunch of salary on the Braves in return for Kemp, who trust me, already has about 10 or 12 scenarios played out for him by FAZ. Love watching how these guys work. Borass has met his match with FAZ. Aint’ gonna happen, cap’n. They won’t get suckered by him.
Never once hast Scotty Boy ever been charged with assault… That being said I think he’s an a– h—…
It was a pleasure watching Brown pitch for us!!! He must have read your blog M.T.
Enjoy Seager, Bellinger, and Urias because they’ll only be Dodgers for a few years. FAZ will never give in to his demands for free agent contracts.
Boras is doing his job for his clients and himself, if the owners and GM’s fall for the sats he gives them about his clients and what they are worth then that is their fault. Going forward the GM’s of today with the sats they have and believe in will not fall for his sideshow tricks. The wrong side of 30, strike one, 6 or 7-year contracts, strike 2, making the sats of the past as part of the players future, strike 3 and goodbye to the Scott Boras tell them what they want to hear. Maybe the rest of MLB is catching up to the thinking of Friedman and Zaidi.
The frigidity of the hot stove is multi-factoral:
1 – The luxury tax is dissuading teams with money to spend it
2 – The free agents who have received a qualifying offer have the additional problem of teams not wanting to lose draft choices
3 – As in the NBA and the NFL, structural changes to the free agent system is keeping the “middle class” free agents from making money. Cheap FAs get signed and superduperstars will get paid, but the guys in the middle have a problem
4 – Teams are getting smarter about long term guaranteed contracts. The length of the contract is the problem. Players want to get paid a premium for their unproductive years and teams don’t want to do that; players aren’t getting paid for their early productive years though
5 – Teams that are “tanking” aren’t going to sign anyone either
6 – Some teams are just cheap. Guys like Derek Jeter are going to get paid based on how much money the Fish make, so it’s better for him to have as close to a zero payroll as possible, since national TV money and revenue sharing will ensure that the Fish will make money even if no one goes to game
In case you wonder who Jake Peter is…
Mark Prior on being a Dodger – he sounds like a natural in LA.
Rich Hill is truly one of the leaders in the Dodger Clubhouse! Ask Alex Verdugo!
I don’t think Boras has all of the top free-agents though. This is more of a market correction. Owners are no longer going to overpay for players on the wrong side of 30 years old. Some teams are trying to re-set themselves under the soft cap/luxury tax and some are saving money for the big free-agent class of next year. Throw all that together with teams purposely tanking and that adds up to more than Scott Boras’ role in this. Sure, he has guys like JD Martinez and I’m sure he’s trying to milk one more year on his contract, but there is a lot more going on this year that is causing a lot less movement so far.
Bore-ass has been a bane to the MLB since his, as I recall, first big splash with ARod. The man has single handedly made baseball the target of the ‘men playing kids sports for millions’ meme. Hard to believe there was a time in professional sports when playing ball was just a job. It did get to be a well paying one but up until the 80s, the salaries were rational. If you are one of the best at something, you should be paid well but not exorbitantly. Scott B took that idea and mutilated it to the tune of creating the age of 600 bucks a game for a family of 4. He truly is the Devil of the MLB.
Capitalism at work. Whatever the owners will bear. Boras gonna get his cut. At least the bargaining is fairly transparent. In these days of corruption at the highest levels as normal procedure, baseball seems almost refreshing in its business practices. Of course the owners are beside themselves having to pay such high amounts of money to people they consider little more than common cannon fodder. Riches are too valuable and precious to be trusted in the hands of the rich.