Many sports journalists now rely on AI to do all their research... and take credit for it. There are tools that can identify what AI is and what isn't. I also do that. I just wrote a book, and one of the things the editors do is check for any AI-generated content; if there is, it is rejected. My book was AI-free. AI is a tool but not "the end." It is a "means to an end." So, I am not going to pretend to have written what follows - I just asked Claude AI a question... This question:

Mathematically speaking, what is the best lineup in baseball? To have your highest OPS hitter leading off or your highest OB% hitter leading off. What about Ohtani and Edman?

Here's the first answer:

If we strip away tradition and ask only, “What batting order is most likely to maximize runs?”, sabermetric research gives a fairly clear answer:

Your three best hitters should generally occupy the #1, #2 and #4 spots. The #2 spot is more important than the traditional #3 spot, and you generally want OBP emphasized at #1 and power emphasized at #4.

The important part for Ohtani and Edman

As of today:

Player AVG OBP SLG OPS

Ohtani.279.381.525.906

Edman.273.348.414.762

Ohtani also has a 149 OPS+, while Edman is around 111.

So, mathematically, I would NOT lead Edman off simply because he looks like a traditional leadoff hitter.

Ohtani is better at the two things that matter most at the top of the lineup: not making outs and doing damage.

But there is an interesting wrinkle.

Edman #1, Ohtani #2 isn't crazy

There's a legitimate mathematical argument for:

1. Edman
2. Ohtani

The reasoning is that Ohtani would come to the plate with somebody aboard about 35% of the time when Edman leads off, instead of beginning every game with the bases empty.

And because Ohtani hits so many home runs and extra-base hits, his power is worth more with a runner aboard.

This is exactly why modern lineup research has elevated the #2 hitter. The #2 hitter gets almost as many plate appearances as the leadoff hitter but comes up with runners aboard more frequently. FanGraphs' summaries of The Book specifically note that one of your very best hitters belongs at #2.

But here's the problem.

Edman's .348 OBP isn't high enough for me

If Edman were a .375-.390 OBP player, I'd be very interested in:

Edman → Ohtani → Freeman → Muncy

That's a run-producing conveyor belt.

But at .348, you're taking plate appearances away from a guy with a .381 OBP/.906 OPS and giving them to a .348/.762 hitter.

That's where the equation starts leaning back toward Ohtani.

Over a full season, the leadoff hitter gets roughly 15-20 more PA than the #2 hitter, and each successive lineup spot loses approximately that many opportunities. The broader sabermetric principle is simple: don't voluntarily give extra plate appearances to a significantly inferior hitter.

So here's my Dodgers answer

If I'm building the lineup from current production, I'm probably doing something closer to:

1. Ohtani
2. Freeman
3. Pages/Edman
4. Muncy
5. Pages/Edman
6. Betts
7. Teoscar
8. Rushing/Smith
9. Bottom hitter

That looks bizarre because we're conditioned to think “Freddie Freeman is a #3 hitter.”

Mathematically, that's precisely the kind of thinking lineup optimization challenges.

Freeman currently has a .379 OBP and .840 OPS, almost identical to Ohtani's .381 OBP in terms of getting aboard.

So I'd be fascinated by:

Ohtani – Freeman – Edman/Pages – Muncy

Ohtani and Freeman would get the most PA. Muncy's power gets leveraged in the cleanup position.

---

But there's another lineup I'd seriously consider

1. Freeman
2. Ohtani
3. Edman/Pages
4. Muncy

Now you've got a .379 OBP hitter directly in front of Ohtani without sacrificing plate appearances to a .348 OBP hitter.

That is much more interesting mathematically than Edman-Ohtani.

And Ohtani hitting second isn't remotely wasting him. In fact, sabermetric lineup theory says #2 is arguably the premier position for your best all-around offensive player.

My ranking

Best mathematical concept:
Freeman #1, Ohtani #2

Very close:
Ohtani #1, Freeman #2

Perfectly reasonable:
Ohtani #1, Edman elsewhere

I would not prefer:
Edman #1, Ohtani #2, unless you believe Edman's true OBP going forward is substantially better than his current .348.

And that's the fascinating thing: Ohtani's home-run power actually makes #2 attractive, but Edman's OBP isn't quite good enough to justify being the man who steals those extra plate appearances from him.

If you want, I can take the current Dodgers roster and mathematically construct the optimal 1-through-9 batting order using 2026 OBP, SLG and wRC+.

So, I said: "OK, Do it!" Here's the response:

My mathematically optimized Dodgers lineup

Assuming everyone is healthy:

The exact numbers can move a few points day to day, but the big picture is unmistakable. Ohtani, Freeman and Muncy are the Dodgers' top three offensive performers, with Ohtani at .906 OPS, Freeman .840 and Muncy .826. Edman is currently around .273/.348/.414, which makes him a useful offensive player but not the Dodgers' best leadoff option.

Why Freeman-Ohtani makes so much sense

This is where I would change my answer slightly from simply saying "put Ohtani leadoff."

Sabermetric lineup research says your three best hitters generally belong at #1, #2 and #4, with OBP emphasized toward the top and power emphasized somewhat more at cleanup.

The Dodgers have an almost laboratory-perfect situation:

Freeman: .379 OBP / .461 SLG
Ohtani: .381 OBP / .525 SLG

Their OBPs are virtually identical.

But Ohtani has 64 points more slugging.

That screams:

Freeman → Ohtani

Rather than:

Ohtani → Freeman

Why?

Every game Ohtani leads off, we know one thing with 100% certainty:

There is nobody on base for his first plate appearance.

Put Freeman ahead of him and, very roughly, Freeman reaches base nearly 38% of the time.

Now Ohtani's first-inning homer sometimes becomes:

2 runs instead of 1.

And you're barely sacrificing anything in the leadoff position because Freeman himself has a .379 OBP.

That's the key.

---

Where does Edman fit?

Here's where I would disagree with putting Edman leadoff.

Edman's .348 OBP is good.

But:

Freeman .379
Ohtani .381
Edman .348

That's a 31-point OBP gap between Freeman and Edman.

You're voluntarily giving more plate appearances to an inferior offensive player.

That isn't what lineup optimization tells you to do.

FanGraphs' summary of the research puts it neatly: the top three hitters generally belong 1st, 2nd and 4th, with the higher-OBP players pushed upward and more power tending toward #4.

So I don't want:

Edman
Ohtani
Freeman

I'd rather have:

**Freeman

Ohtani
Edman
Muncy
Pages**

That is a nasty little run-manufacturing machine.

---

The most controversial part: Betts at #7

If we're really doing this mathematically, reputation can't get a vote.

Mookie is currently around:

.247/.309/.418/.727

Meanwhile, Edman is:

.273/.348/.414/.762

And Pages is:

.272/.338/.458/.796.

Therefore, based upon 2026 performance, I can't mathematically justify hitting Mookie second or third merely because his name is Mookie Betts.

His career says something different.

His 2026 production says:

Move him down until he earns his way back up.

And that's one place where I think lineup construction gets tangled up with clubhouse politics. A computer doesn't care that Mookie has an MVP trophy. It sees a .309 OBP.

And Tucker?

Even more dramatic.

Tucker is sitting around:

.225/.326/.357/.683.

A lineup optimizer isn't putting that hitter fourth or fifth because the contract says "$240 million."

The spreadsheet is a coldhearted little beast.

---

So what about Ohtani vs. Edman?

This is my strongest conclusion:

Edman #1 / Ohtani #2: defensible.

Ohtani #1 / Edman #2: better than a traditional weak #2 hitter.

But Freeman #1 / Ohtani #2 is better than either.

The Dodgers happen to possess almost the ideal player to hit in front of Ohtani: a .300 hitter with a .379 OBP who doesn't need to steal bases and doesn't strike out excessively.

Then Ohtani gets nearly all the plate-appearance benefit of hitting leadoff while getting substantially more opportunities to hit with someone aboard.

And here's the kicker:

You don't need speed in front of Ohtani.

When Ohtani hits one 430 feet, Freddie's 90-foot times become remarkably unimportant. 😂

If I were Dave Roberts, Freeman-Ohtani would be the first two names I wrote on the lineup card. Everything else would be built underneath them.

One caveat: Pages is presently listed on the IL, and Rushing's elbow flared up this weekend, so the actual available lineup differs from the healthy-roster exercise.

I think the numbers make a much stronger case than the usual "more RBI opportunities" argument.

OKC Comets 3 – Round Rock Express (Houston) 1 

Going into this week’s series, OKC and Round Rock were tied with 33-24 record.  After the 6-game series, OKC opened up a 6.0 game lead on the Express after sweeping them.  OKC now has a 9-game winning streak, and has won 10 out of 11. 

The game was scoreless going into the 7th.  OKC had 1 hit and 2 BB.  In the 7th, 2B Hyeseong Kim hit a 1-out double (11).  SS Noah Miller and LF Chris Newell both walked to load the bases.  With 2 outs, CF Zach Ehrhard hit a 2-run single to break the scoreless tie. 

In the 9th, Miller and Newell both drew walks again.  With one out, Ehrhard stroked an RBI single, recording all three RBI. 

RHSP Christian Romero pitched 5.1 scoreless innings.  He allowed 1 baserunner (single) over the 1st 5.1 IP.  He then allowed a pair of singles putting runners on 1st and 3rd.  LHRP Ronan Kopp was summoned to relieve Romero.  He got the final two outs of the inning. 

The next two pitchers for OKC were on rehab assignments.  RHRP Edwin Díaz pitched a scoreless 7th allowing only 1 BB, while striking out 1. LHRP Kris Bubic pitched a clean 8th inning, striking out 1. 

RHRP Jerming Rosario was called to relieve Bubic in the 9th.  He allowed a BB and 2 singles for one run, but got the final out before anyone else crossed the plate, earning his 3rd save. 

·      Zach Ehrhard – 2-3, 2 runs, 3 RBI

·      Hyeseong Kim – 2-4, 1 run, double (11) 

Box Score 

Wichita Wind Surge (Twins) 13 – Tulsa Drillers 7 – 10 innings 

Interesting 3rd and 4th innings in this one.  The teams scored 14 runs in 9 innings, and 12 were in those 2 innings.  

LHSP Luke Fox pitched 2.0 perfect innings with 3 K.  RHRP Roque Gutierrez relieved Fox in the 3rd.  The first three batters reached on 2 singles and a BB.  Another BB brought home 1 run, and a SF brought home a 2nd run. 

Tulsa took the lead in the bottom of the 3rd.  RF Jose Izarra reaches on a fielding error.  2B Taylor Young was HBP, and LF Josue De Paula walked to load the bases.  Izarra scored on a groundout, with JDP moving to 2nd.  3B Jake Gelof singled to move JDP to 3rd.  Gelof stole 2nd.  C Griffin Lockwood-Powell reached 1B on a fielder’s choice with JDP being thrown out at home as Gelof moved to 3rd.  Gelof scored on a WP, and a 3-2 lead. 

In the 4th with Gutierrez still pitching, he allowed a one out double and single to put runners on the corners.  The next batter hit a RBI single. A single loaded the bases. The next batter hit a 2-run single, giving Wichita a 5-3 lead. 

The Drillers took the lead again in the 4th.  SS Elijah Hainline reached 1B on a fielding error.  1B Joe Vetrano singled with Hainline to 2nd.  A flyout moved the runners to 2nd and 3rd.  Taylor plated both runners with a single.  JDP singled and Taylor scored on a F7 fielding error.  JDP stole 2nd.  CF Kole Myers and Gelof both walked to load the bases.  JDP scored on a GLP SF. 

After a scoreless 5th, LHRP Alex Walsh came back out for the 6th.  He gave up a 2-out HR.  

RHRP Jacob Kmatz, pitched 2 good innings allowing a pair of hits and 4 K, keeping the lead 7-6.  

RHRP Lucas Wepf came in the 9th inning looking for a save.  He loaded the bases with 2 hits and a BB.  The tying run came home on a WP.  Wepf got out of the jam without any further damage.  

In the 10th, RHRP Cam Day came in to pitch.  This was a disaster of an inning. Between Day and LHRP Christian Suarez, the pitchers inherited a placed runner, walked 2, gave up 2 singles, and 2 doubles. With that traffic, Wichita put up 5.  

Ontario loaded the bases with 1 out in the 10th, but a GIDP ended the threat and game.    

·      Josue De Paula – 2-5, 1 BB, 1 run

·      Elijah Hainline – 2-5, 1 run

·      Double – Jose Izarra (8) 

Box Score 

Lake County Captains (Cleveland) 2 – Great Lakes Loons 0 

This was a game that was necessary to complete the regular season, but after clinching the 2nd ½ Divisional Championship, the game certainly lost a lot of the luster. 

RHSP Hyun-Seok Jang was asked to start this game.  This is a game that figures to see a lot of pitchers getting ready for Tuesday for relief.  Jang last pitched August 11, so he will certainly not be ramped up to start a playoff game.  In the 1st inning, Jang allowed a 1-out single.  The runner stole 2nd, stole 3rd and continued to score on a throwing error. 

In the 2nd, Jang walked the first batter.  That was followed by a single, RBI double, and bases loading BB.  RHRP Joseilyn Gonzalez relieved Jang with the bases loaded and nobody out.  Gonzalez struck out the first two batters and got a groundout to end the inning. 

The Loons had one baserunner for the first three innings, a 2 out BB in the 3rd.  In the 4th, DH Nico Perez led off with a walk.  He stole 2nd and scored on a single from 3B Eduardo Guerrero.  

In the 5th, the Loons took the lead.  RF Jose Meza led off with a single, and C Anson Aroz followed with a 2-run HR, his 1st of the year for Great Lakes. 

The Loons scored an insurance run in the 9th.  Meza led off with a BB and moved to 2nd on a 1-out single from CF Jaron Elkins.  Both runners moved up on a groundout.  Meza scored when Guerrero hit his second RBI single.  

Four additional pitchers went to the mound for GL and held the Captains scoreless over the final 7 innings. LHRP Jacob Frost pitched 3.0 innings, allowing 0 hits, with 2 BB and 2 K.  The announced starter, RHRP Isaac Ayon, pitched the final two scoreless innings earning his 3rd save. 

Good end of season run for the Loons before they begin playoffs on Tuesday at Great Lakes. 

·      Eduardo Guerrero – 2-5, 2 RBI

·      Anson Aroz – 2-4, 1 run, 2 RBI, double (3), HR (1) 

Box Score

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (LAA) 8 - Ontario Tower Buzzers 3 

Delayed Start due to rain.  An unusual system bringing unseasonable rain and thunderstorms to Southern California has hit the region.  Thinking back, perhaps they should not have played this one. 

When it did start, Ontario scored 1st.  2B Kellon Lindsey led off with a HBP.  LF Ching-Hsien Ko and 3B Joendry Vargas both walked to load the bases.  1B Easton Shelton and SS Caleb Johnson hit SF to give Ontario a 2-0 lead. 

RHSP Jack O’Connor pitched a scoreless 1st two innings.  In the 3rd, O’Connor gave up a lead off 1B.  A WP and groundout scored a run.  In the 4th, he allowed a leadoff HR before being relieved by RHRP Accimias Morales. 

In the 5th, RHRP Jesus Tillero relieved Morales.  He allowed a solo HR to give the Quakes a 3-2 lead.  

In the 7th with Tillero still on the mound, he allowed a double and walk before RHRP Javier Bartolozzi was summoned to relieve him. Bartolozzi got the first out but then walked two to force in one run.  A ground ball forceout got the 2nd run across.  

In the 8th, Bartolozzi gave up a 2-out single and run-scoring double. 

RHRP Jose Vasquez was called in to relieve Bartolozzi for the 9th. Not to be outdone, he gave up a single and 2-run HR. 

Johnson hit his 5th HR in the 9th.  Johnson was a 13th round draft pick this year from Jacksonville State. That is 5 HR in 82 AB.  He also stole 9 bases out of 10 attempts.  He had a .912 OPS in 96 PA.  I did not see him play, so I have no idea how his fielding is.  As a 13th round pick, he is certainly not going to get many top 30 lists, but I will be looking forward to watching him next season. 

C Connor O’Neal had 2 hits including his 14th double.  He was the only Ontario batter with a multi-hit game.  Johnson’s HR was the other XBH. 

Not much to play for.  Methinks they were looking forward to Tuesday for the start of the California League playoffs.  My biggest concern will be the relief pitching.  The same with Great Lakes. 

Box Score