What Actually Wins Baseball Games?
This was written by Bumsrap. When we start the new site, his name will appear as the author, but it does not here. Rob: I heard it again after last night’s game. Dawn: “The Dodgers buy championships?” Rob: Every. Single. Time. Ethan: Well…the Dodgers do spend a lot of money. Rob: Exactly! Why does everybody act like that’s some kind of secret? Dawn: Because it’s easier than having a longer…
This was written by Bumsrap. When we start the new site, his name will appear as the author, but it does not here.
Rob: I heard it again after last night’s game.
Dawn: “The Dodgers buy championships?”
Rob: Every. Single. Time.
Ethan: Well…the Dodgers do spend a lot of money.
Rob: Exactly! Why does everybody act like that’s some kind of secret?
Dawn: Because it’s easier than having a longer conversation.
Rob: Fine. Let’s have the longer conversation.
Ethan: Good. Here’s my first question.
What exactly does money buy?
Rob: Players.
Ethan: Only players?
Rob: Isn’t that enough?
Dawn: Not if you want to explain why some expensive teams win and some don’t.
Rob: You’re talking about the Angels, aren’t you?
Dawn: I wasn’t going to name names.
Rob: I’ll do it. They had Mike Trout. They had Shohei Ohtani. They signed expensive free agents. They spent money.
Ethan: And yet they struggled to build a consistent winner.
Rob: So payroll isn’t everything.
Ethan: No. But payroll definitely matters.
Dawn: Let’s not pretend otherwise.
Ethan: Since the Wild Card era began, almost every World Series champion has had a payroll in the top half of baseball.
Rob: So the critics are right.
Ethan: They’re partly right.
Rob: I hate “partly right.”
Dawn: Everybody does.
Ethan: Here’s what I think gets overlooked.
Teams acquire talent four ways.
They draft it.
They sign it internationally.
They trade for it.
Or they sign free agents.
Rob: That’s the whole menu.
Ethan: No.
That’s just how the ingredients get into the kitchen.
Dawn: I like that.
Rob: I don’t.
Dawn: Of course you don’t.
Ethan: Two organizations can draft equally talented players.
One develops an All-Star.
The other develops a career minor leaguer.
Rob: So now we’re talking about development.
Ethan: Coaching.
Scouting.
Analytics.
Biomechanics.
Medical staff.
Nutrition.
Technology.
Rob: None of those hit cleanup.
Dawn: No…
They help create the guy who eventually does.
Rob: Okay, I’ll give you that.
But money still buys an advantage.
Ethan: Absolutely.
It buys something fans rarely talk about.
Rob: What’s that?
Ethan: The ability to survive mistakes.
Rob: Explain.
Ethan: Imagine two teams each sign the same pitcher to a huge contract.
Six weeks later he needs Tommy John surgery.
Rob: Happens all the time.
Ethan: One team replaces him.
The other spends the next three years trying to recover from the contract.
Dawn: Big payroll doesn’t eliminate risk.
It changes how much risk you can afford.
Rob: So rich teams can gamble more often.
Ethan: Exactly.
Rob: I hadn’t thought about it that way.
Dawn: Most fans don’t.
They only see the contract.
They don’t see the safety net.
Rob: Okay, but what about the draft?
Everybody says the Dodgers always pick near the bottom because they’re good.
Ethan: That’s true.
Which means somebody else is picking near the top.
Rob: Because they weren’t good.
Ethan: Right.
And historically, the very top draft picks produce far more value than the average player drafted later in the first round.
Rob: So bad teams aren’t just getting first choice.
They’re getting a valuable asset.
Ethan: Exactly.
Dawn: Baseball has been trying to balance competition for decades.
Draft order.
Luxury tax.
International bonus pools.
Years of team control.
They’re all designed to keep the same teams from dominating forever.
Rob: So who’s got the bigger advantage?
The team with the biggest payroll…
or the team drafting first every July?
Ethan: I don’t think that’s the right question.
Rob: Then what’s the right question?
Ethan: Which organization does the best job turning its advantages into wins?
Dawn: Now we’re getting somewhere.
Rob: So let’s compare.
The Dodgers spend money.
The Dodgers develop players.
The Dodgers usually draft late.
The Dodgers trade prospects.
The Dodgers sign free agents.
They seem to do everything.
Ethan: That’s the point.
People argue about one advantage.
Organizations try to build all of them.
Rob: So when people say, “The Dodgers buy championships…”
Dawn: …they’re only describing part of the picture.
Ethan: They’re buying free agents.
They’re investing in player development.
They’re expanding scouting.
They’re building depth.
They’re improving the chances that good decisions turn into good players.
Rob: Which still doesn’t guarantee anything.
Ethan: Ask the Angels.
Rob: Ouch.
Dawn: Baseball is full of expensive disappointments.
Rob: So after all this…
what actually wins baseball games?
Ethan: Talent.
Rob: That’s it?
Ethan: No.
Talent that’s acquired well.
Talent that’s developed well.
Talent that stays healthy.
Talent that fits together.
And talent backed by an organization that makes more good decisions than bad ones.
Rob: That’s a lot less satisfying than saying, “They bought it.”
Dawn: Maybe.
Ethan: But it’s probably a lot closer to the truth.
Rob: You know what?
Dawn: What?
Rob: Baseball would be a lot simpler if every answer fit on a bumper sticker.
Dawn: It would also be a lot less interesting.
Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Houston) 3 – OKC Comets 2
RHSP Cole Irvin pitched 5 scoreless innings to start the game. He allowed a double and single with 2 BB and 6 K.
OKC scored a run in the 3rd inning when DH Jack Suwinski singled and moved to 2nd on the sac bunt by C Eliézer Alfonzo. SS Noah Miller and RF Zach Ehrhard both singled with Suwinski scoring on Ehrhard’s.
In the 4th, both 1B James Tibbs III (19) and Suwinski (20) doubled to give OKC a 2-0 lead.
Irvin took that 2-0 lead into the 6th. He left the game with 2 outs in the 6th and 2 runners on. RHRP Griff McGarry walked the first two batters he faced, allowing 1 run to score. RHRP Keynan Middleton entered in the 7th
Inning to try to preserve the lead. He allowed a one out BB, and two out single before giving up a 2-run double and the lead.
Sugar Land did not allow a run after the 4th inning.
- Ryan Ward – 2-4
- Jack Suwinski – 2-3, 1 BB, 1 run, 1 RBI, double (20)
- James Tibbs III – 1-3, 1 BB, 1 run, double (19)
Tulsa Drillers 11 – Wichita Wind Surge (Minnesota) 7
Tulsa started the night off with 3 runs in the 1st inning. RF Josue De Paula doubled (25) and CF Mike Sirota singled JDP to 3rd. SS Elijah Hainline tripled (1) to score 2. Hainline scored the 3rd run on 1B Jake Gelof’s SF.
LHSP Adam Seerwinski had a stellar June. He had 5 starts and reached 27.2 IP. He had a 1.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .161 BAA, and 27 K. On this night, he had a forgettable game. He got through 3.0 IP, allowing 6 runs, 6 hits, 2 BB, 6 K, and FOUR HRs.
Tulsa started to climb back in the 4th, when LF Zyhir Hope hit a solo HR (14).
RHRP Roque Gutierrez relieved Serwinowski in the 4th. He pitched a scoreless 4th and 5th inning, but in the 6th, he gave up a leadoff solo HR.
Tulsa came to bat in the 8th trailing 7-4. Hope led off with a single and continued to 3rd on Gelof’s double (12). DH Kole Myers followed with a 2-run double, closing the score to 7-6.
Tulsa unloaded in the 9th. JDP walked and Sirota singled. Hainline walked to load the bases. Hope singled to score JDP with the tying run. Gelof followed with a grand slam (16) giving the Drillers a 4-run lead.
Gutierrez finished off a scoreless 7th and 8th for 5.0 complete IP. RHRP Antonio Knowles pitched a clean 9th to preserve the win for Tulsa.
- Zyhir Hope – 4-5 3 runs, 2 RBI, HR (14)
- Jake Gelof – 2-4, 2 runs, 5 RBI, double (12), HR (16)
- Mike Sirota – 2-4, 1 BB, 2 runs
- Josue De Paula – 1-4, 2 BB, 2 runs, double (25)
- Kole Myers – 1-3, 2 BB, 2 RBI, double (2)
- Elijah Hainline – 1-4, 1 BB, 2 runs, 2 RBI, triple (1)
Great Lakes Loons 6 – Ft. Wayne TinCaps (San Diego) 2
Four Loons pitchers pitched 8 scoreless innings with 3 hits, 4 hits, and 9 K. Then the 9th and RHRP Reynaldo Yean.
LHSP Jakob Wright started and completed 2.0 scoreless, hitless innings. He walked 1 and struck out 4.
In the 2nd inning, LF Samuel Munoz hit his 4th HR to take a 1-0 lead. In the 3rd inning with 2 outs, RF Eduardo Quintero was HBP and scored on 3B Logan Wagner’s double (13).
RHRP Robby Porco entered in the 3rd. He pitched 2.2 scoreless innings with 2 hits, 1 BB, and 1 K.
In the 5th, with one out, CF Charles Davalan walked and scored on Quintero’s 2 run HR (6).
With 2 outs in the bottom of the 5th inning, LHRP Justin Chambers came in to get the last out. He got through 2.0 additional scoreless innings without a hit.
In the 7th, Davalan tripled (1) and Quintero singled him home.
In the 8th, SS Emil Morales homered (9) to finish the Loons scoring.
After RHRP Seamus Barrett pitched a scoreless 8th, allowing 1 hit, and struck out 3. Yean entered the 9th to bring the win home. He faced 3 batters. Walk, single, single to load the bases. RHRP Davis Chastain came in to try and shut down the threat. He induced a flyout, gave up a 2-run double, and struck out two to end the game.
- Eduardo Quintero – 2-3, 1 HBP, 2 runs, 3 RBI, HR (6)
- Samuel Munoz – 1-4, 1 tun, 1 RBI, HR (4)
- Emil Morales – 1-3, 1 BB, 1 run, 1RBI, HR (9)
- Charles Davalan – 1-3, 2 BB, 2 runs, triple (1)
Ontario Tower Buzzers 10 – Fresno Grizzlies (Colorado) 4
RHSP Hyun-Seok Jang was not able to replicate his last outing. He had a rough 1st inning. He allowed 3 singles, 1 BB, 1 WP, 1 SF producing 3 runs.
3B Easton Shelton hit a leadoff HR in the 2nd to trim the lead to 3-1.
Ontario tied it up in the 3rd, when 2B Kellon Lindsey walked and RF Jaron Elkins singled. Shelton doubled both runners home.
In the 4th, Ontario took the lead when DH Landyn Vidourek hit his 6th HR.
Ontario picked up a pair of runs in the 5th when CF Kendall George reached on an error and scored on Elkins 2-run HR (9).
Up 5-3, Ontario scored 5 in the 6th. LF Brendan Tunink and Vidourek singled. C Bryan Gonzalez-Garcia singled to load the bases. 1B Mairo Martinus and George both hit RBI singles leaving the bases loaded. Lindsey hit a SF and Elkins walked to reload the bases. Martinus scored on a groundout and George followed home on a throwing error, and a 10-3 lead.
After 4.0 scoreless innings, Jang gave up a solo HR and was relieved by RHRP Jose Cabrera who got the final two outs in the 6th.
RHRP Angel Cruz (0.2 IP) and RHRP Jhonny Jimenez had an adventure in the 7th. Cruz struck out 2 but walked the bases loaded for Jiminez to come in. Jimenez allowed back-to-back doubles to give the Grizzlies 4 runs.
Ontario got an unearned run in the 8th. George walked and stole 2nd. With one out, Elkins reached on an error. George scored on a ground out and throwing error.
RHRP Jholbran Herder entered in the 8th. He gave up a single and issued a BB to the 1st two batters. Herder struck out the next two batters, but gives up an RBI single. RHRP Jecsua Liborius came in to get the final out of the inning.
Ontario came up in the 9th inning with a 11-9 lead. Vidourek drew a one out BB and scored on Gonzalez-Garcia’s double (4).
Liborius went back out to get the save. But it came with drama. Liborius allowed a BB, single, and BB to load up the bases with nobody out. He got a SF, but struck out the next batter and got a ground out to end the game and secure his 6th save.
- Easton Shelton – 3-5, 1 run, 5 RBI, 2 doubles (17) HR (23)
- Jaron Elkins – 2-4, 1 BB, 2 runs, 1 RBI, HR (9)
- Landyn Vidourek – 2-4, 1 BB, 3 runs, 1 RBI, RBI (6)
- Bryan Gonzalez-Garcia – 2-5, 1 run, 1 RBI, double (4)
ACL Cleveland 8 – ACL Dodgers 2
DSL Tampa Bay 13 – DSL LAD Mega 11 – Completion of June 25 game
LAD Mega jumped out to a 9-4 lead after 5 innings. They were outscored 9-2 over the last three innings.
- 1B Ezequiel Aparicio – 3-4, 1 BB, 2 runs, 1 RBI, double (2)
- 2B Juan Macero – 2-3, 1 BB, 2 runs
- CF Helvin Mendoza – 2-5, 1 run
- LF Jesus Villaflor – triple (2)
- RF Erny Orellana – 1-6, 1 run, 3 RBI, HR (3)
- C Roberto Saucedo – 1-4, 1 BB, 1 run, 1 RBI, HR (2)
More from Dodger Talk
Dodgers Food Trailer
I did this interview a couple of weeks ago with Chef Mike, who runs the Dodgers Food Trailer for the Great Lakes Loons. They are there for every home and road regular season and playoff game. They prepare three meals a day for approximately 50 people (players and coaches). Since games end late most evenings, they do not prepare breakfast. Many of their hotels have a complimentary breakfast anyway. However,…
Meet LAD 2026 Draft Picks 1-12
3 picks were High School players (2 SS and 1 OF). There was a college OF, college catcher, college SS, and 10 college pitchers. Of all the talk for a need for a catcher, the only catcher the Dodgers selected was Luke Bard, son of LAD bullpen coach Josh Bard. Bard was a 4th year senior from Houston Christian University. He is not a prospect, so the Dodgers are still…
Interview with Paul Beachy – Team Bus Driver For The Great Lakes Loons (LA Dodgers Minor League Team)
It’s been a few days since I did this interview. We have evidently been working my son-in-law (the video guy) like a rented mule at US Water Systems. However, I am taking him to London with me in a few days, so maybe Watford will buy him a pint as a tip, but he’s a dang Red Sox fan, so there is that! I thought that it would be interesting…
Thanks for Your Service: Chris Taylor
I was going to do this post when Chris announced he was retiring, then he changed his mind, but since the chances of him ever playing for the Dodgers again are slim and non-existent, I will go ahead with this post. He unretired, went on the IL, then decided to call it quits on May 24th. Taylor was born in Virginia Beach VA on August 29th, 1990. He attended Great…
Discussion (110)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Yankees Place Carlos Rodón On the 15 day IL With Elbow Inflammation. The injuries keep mounting up for the Yankees.
Dodgers outrighted Hernandez to AAA OKC.
Another great farm report, Jeff.
It’s comforting to read when the Dodgers lose. And a joy when the Dodgers win.
Just so much talent in the pipeline.
This is soooooooooooooo gooooooooooood:
I have no problem with Rushing’s personality, assuming he mellows a bit with experience and age. He seems to be willing to listen to his teammates so it’s just a matter of controlling his behavior on the field and that should come with maturity.
When the team gets into it’s annual funk, lots of us complain that they seem to be sleep walking and disinterested. Maybe Rushing is the one guy on the roster who always plays with passion.
That said, if Smith’s injury isn’t really serious, I’d like to trade Rushing between now and the end of the year. My thinking is as follows:
Mr “I’m Dalton and I play with a firecracker up my ass” will be very unhappy if he is still a part time player when Will comes back. Even if he DH’s or plays first base once in a while, that still means he’ll only play about 3 times a week. That will make him very unhappy. And he isn’t going to be willing to twiddle his thumbs until Freddie decides to retire. I know some here are convinced that Will is going to be moved to 2B or 3B at some point. I don’t expect that to happen.
Rushing’s trade value is probably quite high right now so maybe it’s time to take advantage of that, and if Andrew needs to play it safe, then wait until Smith is back and shows he can catch 5 times a week. In the meanwhile go out and bring back Rortvedt. The Mets are paying him 1.25 mil to play at Rochester. They’d probably be happy to trade him even up for Chuckie.
10:10 PM ET
Padres (43-43)
Dodgers (57-31)
SP Michael King R
5-7 3.55 ERA
SP Shohei Ohtani R
8-2 1.58 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
DH S. Ohtani L
CF Andy Pages R
1B F. Freeman L
SS Mookie Betts R
3B Max Muncy L
RF Kyle Tucker L
LF T. Hernandez R
C D. Rushing L
2B A. Freeland S
71° Wind 9 mph Out
More good stuff from Mookie and Max:
Anyone here missing the game tonight because they’re at Swift-Kelce wedding?
Yikes!! King 38 pitches (30 strikes) thru 4 innings
Hernandez has been low key amazing at home.
only 5 hits, but only 5 Ks