What Actually Wins Baseball Games?
This was written by Bumsrap. When we start the new site, his name will appear as the author, but it does not here. Rob: I heard it again after last night’s game. Dawn: “The Dodgers buy championships?” Rob: Every. Single. Time. Ethan: Well…the Dodgers do spend a lot of money. Rob: Exactly! Why does everybody act like that’s some kind of secret? Dawn: Because it’s easier than having a longer…
This was written by Bumsrap. When we start the new site, his name will appear as the author, but it does not here.
Rob: I heard it again after last night’s game.
Dawn: “The Dodgers buy championships?”
Rob: Every. Single. Time.
Ethan: Well…the Dodgers do spend a lot of money.
Rob: Exactly! Why does everybody act like that’s some kind of secret?
Dawn: Because it’s easier than having a longer conversation.
Rob: Fine. Let’s have the longer conversation.
Ethan: Good. Here’s my first question.
What exactly does money buy?
Rob: Players.
Ethan: Only players?
Rob: Isn’t that enough?
Dawn: Not if you want to explain why some expensive teams win and some don’t.
Rob: You’re talking about the Angels, aren’t you?
Dawn: I wasn’t going to name names.
Rob: I’ll do it. They had Mike Trout. They had Shohei Ohtani. They signed expensive free agents. They spent money.
Ethan: And yet they struggled to build a consistent winner.
Rob: So payroll isn’t everything.
Ethan: No. But payroll definitely matters.
Dawn: Let’s not pretend otherwise.
Ethan: Since the Wild Card era began, almost every World Series champion has had a payroll in the top half of baseball.
Rob: So the critics are right.
Ethan: They’re partly right.
Rob: I hate “partly right.”
Dawn: Everybody does.
Ethan: Here’s what I think gets overlooked.
Teams acquire talent four ways.
They draft it.
They sign it internationally.
They trade for it.
Or they sign free agents.
Rob: That’s the whole menu.
Ethan: No.
That’s just how the ingredients get into the kitchen.
Dawn: I like that.
Rob: I don’t.
Dawn: Of course you don’t.
Ethan: Two organizations can draft equally talented players.
One develops an All-Star.
The other develops a career minor leaguer.
Rob: So now we’re talking about development.
Ethan: Coaching.
Scouting.
Analytics.
Biomechanics.
Medical staff.
Nutrition.
Technology.
Rob: None of those hit cleanup.
Dawn: No…
They help create the guy who eventually does.
Rob: Okay, I’ll give you that.
But money still buys an advantage.
Ethan: Absolutely.
It buys something fans rarely talk about.
Rob: What’s that?
Ethan: The ability to survive mistakes.
Rob: Explain.
Ethan: Imagine two teams each sign the same pitcher to a huge contract.
Six weeks later he needs Tommy John surgery.
Rob: Happens all the time.
Ethan: One team replaces him.
The other spends the next three years trying to recover from the contract.
Dawn: Big payroll doesn’t eliminate risk.
It changes how much risk you can afford.
Rob: So rich teams can gamble more often.
Ethan: Exactly.
Rob: I hadn’t thought about it that way.
Dawn: Most fans don’t.
They only see the contract.
They don’t see the safety net.
Rob: Okay, but what about the draft?
Everybody says the Dodgers always pick near the bottom because they’re good.
Ethan: That’s true.
Which means somebody else is picking near the top.
Rob: Because they weren’t good.
Ethan: Right.
And historically, the very top draft picks produce far more value than the average player drafted later in the first round.
Rob: So bad teams aren’t just getting first choice.
They’re getting a valuable asset.
Ethan: Exactly.
Dawn: Baseball has been trying to balance competition for decades.
Draft order.
Luxury tax.
International bonus pools.
Years of team control.
They’re all designed to keep the same teams from dominating forever.
Rob: So who’s got the bigger advantage?
The team with the biggest payroll…
or the team drafting first every July?
Ethan: I don’t think that’s the right question.
Rob: Then what’s the right question?
Ethan: Which organization does the best job turning its advantages into wins?
Dawn: Now we’re getting somewhere.
Rob: So let’s compare.
The Dodgers spend money.
The Dodgers develop players.
The Dodgers usually draft late.
The Dodgers trade prospects.
The Dodgers sign free agents.
They seem to do everything.
Ethan: That’s the point.
People argue about one advantage.
Organizations try to build all of them.
Rob: So when people say, “The Dodgers buy championships…”
Dawn: …they’re only describing part of the picture.
Ethan: They’re buying free agents.
They’re investing in player development.
They’re expanding scouting.
They’re building depth.
They’re improving the chances that good decisions turn into good players.
Rob: Which still doesn’t guarantee anything.
Ethan: Ask the Angels.
Rob: Ouch.
Dawn: Baseball is full of expensive disappointments.
Rob: So after all this…
what actually wins baseball games?
Ethan: Talent.
Rob: That’s it?
Ethan: No.
Talent that’s acquired well.
Talent that’s developed well.
Talent that stays healthy.
Talent that fits together.
And talent backed by an organization that makes more good decisions than bad ones.
Rob: That’s a lot less satisfying than saying, “They bought it.”
Dawn: Maybe.
Ethan: But it’s probably a lot closer to the truth.
Rob: You know what?
Dawn: What?
Rob: Baseball would be a lot simpler if every answer fit on a bumper sticker.
Dawn: It would also be a lot less interesting.
Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Houston) 3 – OKC Comets 2
RHSP Cole Irvin pitched 5 scoreless innings to start the game. He allowed a double and single with 2 BB and 6 K.
OKC scored a run in the 3rd inning when DH Jack Suwinski singled and moved to 2nd on the sac bunt by C Eliézer Alfonzo. SS Noah Miller and RF Zach Ehrhard both singled with Suwinski scoring on Ehrhard’s.
In the 4th, both 1B James Tibbs III (19) and Suwinski (20) doubled to give OKC a 2-0 lead.
Irvin took that 2-0 lead into the 6th. He left the game with 2 outs in the 6th and 2 runners on. RHRP Griff McGarry walked the first two batters he faced, allowing 1 run to score. RHRP Keynan Middleton entered in the 7th
Inning to try to preserve the lead. He allowed a one out BB, and two out single before giving up a 2-run double and the lead.
Sugar Land did not allow a run after the 4th inning.
- Ryan Ward – 2-4
- Jack Suwinski – 2-3, 1 BB, 1 run, 1 RBI, double (20)
- James Tibbs III – 1-3, 1 BB, 1 run, double (19)
Tulsa Drillers 11 – Wichita Wind Surge (Minnesota) 7
Tulsa started the night off with 3 runs in the 1st inning. RF Josue De Paula doubled (25) and CF Mike Sirota singled JDP to 3rd. SS Elijah Hainline tripled (1) to score 2. Hainline scored the 3rd run on 1B Jake Gelof’s SF.
LHSP Adam Seerwinski had a stellar June. He had 5 starts and reached 27.2 IP. He had a 1.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .161 BAA, and 27 K. On this night, he had a forgettable game. He got through 3.0 IP, allowing 6 runs, 6 hits, 2 BB, 6 K, and FOUR HRs.
Tulsa started to climb back in the 4th, when LF Zyhir Hope hit a solo HR (14).
RHRP Roque Gutierrez relieved Serwinowski in the 4th. He pitched a scoreless 4th and 5th inning, but in the 6th, he gave up a leadoff solo HR.
Tulsa came to bat in the 8th trailing 7-4. Hope led off with a single and continued to 3rd on Gelof’s double (12). DH Kole Myers followed with a 2-run double, closing the score to 7-6.
Tulsa unloaded in the 9th. JDP walked and Sirota singled. Hainline walked to load the bases. Hope singled to score JDP with the tying run. Gelof followed with a grand slam (16) giving the Drillers a 4-run lead.
Gutierrez finished off a scoreless 7th and 8th for 5.0 complete IP. RHRP Antonio Knowles pitched a clean 9th to preserve the win for Tulsa.
- Zyhir Hope – 4-5 3 runs, 2 RBI, HR (14)
- Jake Gelof – 2-4, 2 runs, 5 RBI, double (12), HR (16)
- Mike Sirota – 2-4, 1 BB, 2 runs
- Josue De Paula – 1-4, 2 BB, 2 runs, double (25)
- Kole Myers – 1-3, 2 BB, 2 RBI, double (2)
- Elijah Hainline – 1-4, 1 BB, 2 runs, 2 RBI, triple (1)
Great Lakes Loons 6 – Ft. Wayne TinCaps (San Diego) 2
Four Loons pitchers pitched 8 scoreless innings with 3 hits, 4 hits, and 9 K. Then the 9th and RHRP Reynaldo Yean.
LHSP Jakob Wright started and completed 2.0 scoreless, hitless innings. He walked 1 and struck out 4.
In the 2nd inning, LF Samuel Munoz hit his 4th HR to take a 1-0 lead. In the 3rd inning with 2 outs, RF Eduardo Quintero was HBP and scored on 3B Logan Wagner’s double (13).
RHRP Robby Porco entered in the 3rd. He pitched 2.2 scoreless innings with 2 hits, 1 BB, and 1 K.
In the 5th, with one out, CF Charles Davalan walked and scored on Quintero’s 2 run HR (6).
With 2 outs in the bottom of the 5th inning, LHRP Justin Chambers came in to get the last out. He got through 2.0 additional scoreless innings without a hit.
In the 7th, Davalan tripled (1) and Quintero singled him home.
In the 8th, SS Emil Morales homered (9) to finish the Loons scoring.
After RHRP Seamus Barrett pitched a scoreless 8th, allowing 1 hit, and struck out 3. Yean entered the 9th to bring the win home. He faced 3 batters. Walk, single, single to load the bases. RHRP Davis Chastain came in to try and shut down the threat. He induced a flyout, gave up a 2-run double, and struck out two to end the game.
- Eduardo Quintero – 2-3, 1 HBP, 2 runs, 3 RBI, HR (6)
- Samuel Munoz – 1-4, 1 tun, 1 RBI, HR (4)
- Emil Morales – 1-3, 1 BB, 1 run, 1RBI, HR (9)
- Charles Davalan – 1-3, 2 BB, 2 runs, triple (1)
Ontario Tower Buzzers 10 – Fresno Grizzlies (Colorado) 4
RHSP Hyun-Seok Jang was not able to replicate his last outing. He had a rough 1st inning. He allowed 3 singles, 1 BB, 1 WP, 1 SF producing 3 runs.
3B Easton Shelton hit a leadoff HR in the 2nd to trim the lead to 3-1.
Ontario tied it up in the 3rd, when 2B Kellon Lindsey walked and RF Jaron Elkins singled. Shelton doubled both runners home.
In the 4th, Ontario took the lead when DH Landyn Vidourek hit his 6th HR.
Ontario picked up a pair of runs in the 5th when CF Kendall George reached on an error and scored on Elkins 2-run HR (9).
Up 5-3, Ontario scored 5 in the 6th. LF Brendan Tunink and Vidourek singled. C Bryan Gonzalez-Garcia singled to load the bases. 1B Mairo Martinus and George both hit RBI singles leaving the bases loaded. Lindsey hit a SF and Elkins walked to reload the bases. Martinus scored on a groundout and George followed home on a throwing error, and a 10-3 lead.
After 4.0 scoreless innings, Jang gave up a solo HR and was relieved by RHRP Jose Cabrera who got the final two outs in the 6th.
RHRP Angel Cruz (0.2 IP) and RHRP Jhonny Jimenez had an adventure in the 7th. Cruz struck out 2 but walked the bases loaded for Jiminez to come in. Jimenez allowed back-to-back doubles to give the Grizzlies 4 runs.
Ontario got an unearned run in the 8th. George walked and stole 2nd. With one out, Elkins reached on an error. George scored on a ground out and throwing error.
RHRP Jholbran Herder entered in the 8th. He gave up a single and issued a BB to the 1st two batters. Herder struck out the next two batters, but gives up an RBI single. RHRP Jecsua Liborius came in to get the final out of the inning.
Ontario came up in the 9th inning with a 11-9 lead. Vidourek drew a one out BB and scored on Gonzalez-Garcia’s double (4).
Liborius went back out to get the save. But it came with drama. Liborius allowed a BB, single, and BB to load up the bases with nobody out. He got a SF, but struck out the next batter and got a ground out to end the game and secure his 6th save.
- Easton Shelton – 3-5, 1 run, 5 RBI, 2 doubles (17) HR (23)
- Jaron Elkins – 2-4, 1 BB, 2 runs, 1 RBI, HR (9)
- Landyn Vidourek – 2-4, 1 BB, 3 runs, 1 RBI, RBI (6)
- Bryan Gonzalez-Garcia – 2-5, 1 run, 1 RBI, double (4)
ACL Cleveland 8 – ACL Dodgers 2
DSL Tampa Bay 13 – DSL LAD Mega 11 – Completion of June 25 game
LAD Mega jumped out to a 9-4 lead after 5 innings. They were outscored 9-2 over the last three innings.
- 1B Ezequiel Aparicio – 3-4, 1 BB, 2 runs, 1 RBI, double (2)
- 2B Juan Macero – 2-3, 1 BB, 2 runs
- CF Helvin Mendoza – 2-5, 1 run
- LF Jesus Villaflor – triple (2)
- RF Erny Orellana – 1-6, 1 run, 3 RBI, HR (3)
- C Roberto Saucedo – 1-4, 1 BB, 1 run, 1 RBI, HR (2)
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Discussion (110)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Ardaya:
Dave Roberts said the Dodgers will do a “deep dive” on Roki Sasaki, including trying to rule out pitch-tipping after seeing the Padres were “on everything.” Sasaki will still make his next turn through the rotation, Roberts said.
I have zero confidence in Sasaki. None. Last night he looked like a deer in the headlights, and as a former truck driver I can assure you that I have seen plenty of those. Missed most of them, but one poor soul in Kit Carson Colorado met his maker. Both Sasaki and Sheehan need to be better. Sasaki had gotten his ERA down to just above 4. After the last couple of debacles, it is back up to 5.41. Dude has surrendered 17 homers in 75 innings. In 75 innings, Sasaki has allowed 105 baserunners. 32 walks and 73 hits. And to tell the truth, he looks like he is scared of throwing a pitch in the strike zone. He does not attack hitters, he nibbles. The problem lies in the fact that there is no one to replace him in the rotation until either Snell or Glasnow gets healthy. Even Lauer is pitching better than Sasucki. I cannot listen to Jessica Mendoza. Last night, I found out I could listen to the radio feed instead of the TV side, so I listened to Charlie Steiner and Mo. Nelson took over in the 7th inning. As for last night’s comeback, it was a team effort. The only guy who did not get involved was Teo. Freddie now flirting with .300, Mookie up to .248. Freeman has passed Pages for the team lead in hits with 94, in 20 less at bats than Andy.
We will next see will smith in spring training…..,.at 2nd base.
Mark, Off Topic;
How did the Grand Opening go??
Well Sasaki threw another masterpiece last night! 88 pitches inn3 innings! Don’t believe that I’ve seen that before. Seriously, I agree with Badger, how much longer can this go on? The bullpen has been much better as of late. But, there’s no way it can continue to carry this kind of work load. I suspect that AF does something pretty soon.
Muted last night’s game for the most part! WHY? I expect Joe Davis to be on fox this weekend, so that pairs Nelson and Jolly Jess! Please give me a break! And just when I thought Nelson was starting to win me over. The constant giggles are so obnoxious. Yeah she knows a bit about the game, but I prefer someone, anyone else.
The bats were just what the Doc ordered last night! Especially after that dud in Sacramento the night before! Hard hit balls all night! Tucker 4-4! Mookie smoking the ball. Dalton with 4 hits! Edman is scalding the ball! Freddie is on another planet right about now! That looked more like what they are capable of! Alex Freeland may have a hard time finding playing time the way Edman is playing. One last thing. When Will Smith comes back, it won’t be a platoon situation. If healthy, he’s the starter behind the plate! Dalton will get AB’s, but Will Smith is the starter!
Fred is a terrific writer. I haven’t been to his blog in a while. Might have to drop in again.
Peter Brand said it best: “Your goal shouldn’t be to buy players, your goal should be to buy wins. And in order to buy wins, you need to buy runs.” The organization is currently structured to produce runs. Most of the top prospects are run producers. It appears to me what they may need to get better at is preventing runs.
I wonder if Sasaki’s leash is getting shorter. I also wonder why at this point in his career he has so little command. He’s a professional pitching at the highest level in the world. There are four corners and four edges to the strike zone. Find them.
Three recent concerns for the Dodgers, Betts, Rushing and Tucker, are quickly being resolved. All are hitting.250 with good OPSs which has to scare the hell out of the rest of baseball. With Smitty questionable as to when he is coming back, Rushing is shouldering the majority of the catching and after a few conversations with Doc, is performing above and beyond recently. Mookie looks like his old self, barreling and turning in plus defense. Tucker, over the last nine games has performed like the guy AF thought he signed and nobody is more relieved than Tucker. And throw in Edman coming back and hitting around .400, and providing versitility and speed and this team could be the greatest team ever assembled in baseball history. The 3peat is looking better every day.
All the naysayers on the site still want to trade Rushing for his anger,immaturity and intensity? He is the BEST overall backup catcher in baseball and the BEST offensive backup catcher in baseball.
Great comeback win. The Preller Padre Punks bring the BEST out of the Dodgers everytime we play them. The Dodger lineup last night against right handed pitching with Edman batting 9th will matchup against ANY playoff lineup. As stated many times on this site the Padres have NO starting ptching except King and where will Preller find some at the deadline with so many teams in the hunt for a Wild Card?
Well one thing I know for sure about winning.
Not gonna happen with the McCourts.
Thank you Guggenheim!