In last years’ amateur draft, the Dodgers took Mitchell White in the second round from Santa Clara University. This prompted a response from a Dodger fan who said that they lived near Santa Clara, California and “had never even heard of Mitchell White.” The purpose of this post in not to ridicule that person, but rather to emphasize that Andrew Friedman and his gang know a hell of lot more about what they are doing that we do. Before this season is over, Mitch White might very well be a Dodgers Top 5 Prospect and I guarantee he will be in the TOP 100 MLB prospects… maybe TOP 50! That is FREAKIN’ ASTOUNDING!
People in Santa Clara’s backyard had never heard of him, but FAZ had and they targeted him! I think that is pretty cool! “Don’t try this at home – these are professionals.” In a little over two years , the focus of the Dodger organization has changed dramatically and the depth is astounding. On the ESPN broadcast of the Dodger – Ranger game last night, they said that the Dodgers had 35 to 40 players who deserved to make the team (the list I made a few days ago had 37 actually).
Mitch White has only pitched in 11 minor league games totaling 22 innings. He has 30 strikeouts verses 6 BB in that period. Opposing hitters have gotten 7 hits off him during that time and his ERA is 0.00 with a WHIP of 0.591. He is a man among babies at A ball. No doubt he starts the year at AA or even AAA – he’s that advanced. In fact, I think there is a decent chance we will see him in the majors THIS year. Mitch White and Walker Buehler are both very close to the the Big Show. Coincidently, both Buehler and White may make their Spring Training debuts against the Angels in the upcoming Freeway Series.
Dodger’s pitching coach, Rick Honeycutt says that Buehler and White have “Elite Stuff.” Then there is Alvarez and Urias who also have that “Elite Stuff” to go with Kershaw and back of the rotation guys like Oaks ands Stewart. The lower minor are just “packed” with incredible arms.
When it comes to FAZ, all I can say is “Watch and Learn.” Yes, they have made mistakes (Jim Johnson, Mat Latos, maybe Kazmir and McCarthy… maybe, maybe not), but they have also recovered from blunders (Hector Olivera). They also gotten players like Andrew Toles, Grant Dayton and Chris Taylor for a song. In a little over two years they have turned the Dodgers organization around, and fully two-thirds of the forty man roster are their acquisitions.
To top it all off, they have not traded the Top Prospects from the previous regime. Of course, there are total idiots who criticize every move FAZ makes. Man, were they blasted when they traded Holmes, Montas, Cotton and De Leon: “OMG, the sky is falling. What are they doing, trading away all these Cy Young Award winners? Let’s see where they are now:
- Montas – 8 IP, 6H, 1 BB, 9 K, 1.13 ERA – Looks to be a very good reliever if he can stay healthy
- Cotton – 11 IP, 7 Hits, 9 BB, 12 K, 6.55 ERA – Yawn!
- Holmes – Nowhere to be found – Zach Lee, Jr. – Not in Big League Camp!
- De Leon – 3.2 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K, 17.18 ERA, ouch!
Silly Rabbit! We have Rich Hill and Logan Forsythe to show for all that! Both have the ability to be BIG difference makers (yeah, I know Hill has had injuries). There might be a couple of nice pitchers in that group, but the Dodgers had no place for them, and on top of it, they had better guys pushing them. The Dodgers system is so deep with pitching that it’s stupid! If the team has a need, it has plenty of prospects to trade at the deadline this year, unlike in 2015.
It appears that the door is open for Andrew Toles to “seize the day” and he is trying to do just that. Actually, so is Trayce Thompson. If Andre Ethier starts the season on on the DL and Toles gets off to a good start, this could be the end of the line for Andre. I used to call Andre Mr. Softee when he was a moody locker room presence and got big hits when the game didn’t matter, but he has matured and is a good dude. I don’t call him that anymore.
Here’s the thing: Toles and Thompson (TNT) are dynamite (get it TNT?… nevermind)! THIS COULD WORK:
- Toles and Gutierrez platoon in LF;
- Thompson and Pederson in CF; and
- Puig in RF or
- If Puig falters, there are Thompson and Bellinger or Verdugo for RF. There will be some platoons in the OF unless Puig and Joc show it’s not necessary. They will get that chance, but Joc has to hit better than .125 against lefties. .210 would be better… not great! What about SVS? He’s on the team… maybe not Thompson.
Without steroids, players are not aging well. A few short years ago, Ethier, Gonzalez and others would still be playing at a high level. Ummmmm, Chase Utley is a freak!
UPDATE:
Some people say “Well, Andrew Friedman has never won anything” and proceed to compare what he has done with what Theo Epstein has done. This is not meant to be derogatory to Theo (because he is brilliant), but let’s look at what they have had to work with: Theo has paid the players on the teams he directed $1.832 Billion Dollars (an average of $130 million a year) while Andrew Friedman was able top spend $1.064 Billion (an average of $97 million a year) and that includes the past two years where the Dodgers spent over half of that amount. If you deduct the two Dodger years, Andrew Friedman spent $521 million in 9 years with the Rays (an average of $57 million a year).
In head-to-head comparisons when the two were both in the AL, here’s the breakdown: In 2006 to 2010 
Epstein spent $750 million or an average of $150 million a year. Friedman spent $266 million or an average of $53 million a year! “Yeah, but they did not always draft that well.” OF COURSE NOT! When you are a small market team with limited funds, you don’t always draft who you want – you draft who you can sign. It’s a compromise. During that same five year span, Theo’s teams won 461 games (an average of 92 a year), while Andrew’s teams won 404 games (an average of 81 a year). That was accomplished on 1/3 of the salary. Theo spent $1.6 million per win while Andrew spent $658,000 per win!
Another telling stat is that in the two years before Friedman took over in TB, they averaged 69 wins a year. In the two year before Theo took over in Boston, the Red Sox averaged 88 wins. The purpose of this exercise is not to see who is the best but rather to show that comparing the two of term based upon wins is really, really stupid. Yet, some people persist. It’s obvious to me that Theo and Andrew are two of the brightest minds in the game today. Theo is on top because of his recent World Series title. If the Cubs win another one, his legacy is cemented. Congratulations to him for being named The Worlds Greatest Leader by Fortune magazine. Andrew is still hungry for his first and this just might be the year! It’s by far, his best shot.
DoubleDigit Mind sent me this:
“A little stupid is like a little forest fire. If you happen upon some stupid, please stomp it out before it spreads.” ― Quentin R. Bufogle
I wish!
Update #2
Eric Stephen of TrueBlueLA wrote an outstanding piece on Clayton Kershaw. Here’s a very telling excerpt:
Every season starts with Kershaw on the mound, something we have probably taken for granted by now. This will be the seventh season in a row Kershaw starts on opening day, tying Don Sutton and Don Drysdale for the most in franchise history, and joining Sutton as the only Dodgers to do it consecutively.
Sandy Koufax only started once on opening day, if you can believe it.
This is in many ways an important season for the Dodgers, who are trying to get over the hump in the playoffs. In each of the four full seasons under the Guggenheim Baseball Partners ownership, the Dodgers have won the division, but have yet to get past the National League Championship Series.
This is year three of the reshaped baseball operations department under Andrew Friedman, tasked with trying to build a long-term pipeline of talent while also keeping the major league club competitive. They have done that, possessing one of the best farm systems in the game while also becoming a fixture in the playoffs, but are still waiting for the franchise’s first World Series in 29 years….
… 2011 was a season that included two shining individual stars. Kershaw won the National League Cy Young Award, the first by a Dodgers starting pitcher in 23 years. Matt Kemp had a sublime season, finishing one home run shy of joining the 40-40 club; it was an MVP-caliber campaign, but Kemp finished second to Ryan Braun.
Kemp was only 26 years old, and after the season signed an eight-year, $160 million contract. Kershaw was just 23, still a few years away from his mega deal.
Any reasonable person at the time could have assumed Kemp would be the face, or one of the two faces of the Dodgers over the next five years, at least. But he was slowed by injuries and could no longer handle center field, and was gone just three years later.
Kershaw remains, and has gotten even better basically every season.
He has the lowest career ERA by a starting pitcher since 1920, with a minimum of 1,000 innings (2.37). The next-best starter is Whitey Ford, at 2.75.
Kershaw’s career WHIP will probably soon be under one.
Maybe a Mount Rushmore equivalent would be a better equivalent than trying to choose a single face of the Dodgers. But if forced to pick just one, I have to stick with the best pitcher in baseball.
Bottom Line: Clayton Kershaw is the Greatest Pitcher the Dodgers have ever had with all due respect to the Great Sandy Koufax!
Today’s Music
Discussion (66)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Will UCLA Keep their coach?
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Do they want to?
Good points by all…at least there was a thoughtful discussion! That hindsight being 20/20 makes us all seem smarter than we really are. To me Faz is at about 80/20 good decisions to bad ones. UCLA needs to get busy!
I had no problems with the Dodgers backing away from either Chapman or Iwakuma last year. OK – so both pitched well, but the Braintrust has worked to get rid of most of the “character questionable” guys from the clubhouse (Puig excepted), and a guy who shot at his girlfriend has no place on the Dodgers. Iwakuma survived last year but if there was enough in his scan to scare them off that’s OK with me too.
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I also applaud their signing of Maeda. At $3MM/year plus incentives they don’t lose much if he is injured.
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As to the rest of the walking wounded…
You got it! I called Chapman a knucklehead the other day but it worked out well for the Yankees and Cubs in hindsight. I know Kenley wasn’t too thrilled but those two in the pen would have been nails. I understand why they pulled back, no one knew what his suspension would actually be. I was surprised too that Anderson accepted the QO, along with Rasmus and Weiters they were the first to ever accept. Faz thought they would get an easy pick back but settled for the one for Greinke. Brett earned his pay the 1st year when McCarthy went down. Not all of the young arms will pan out but I really like the odds of several of them! I really hope McCarthy holds up and Ryu comes all the way back. I hope Kazmir is healthy enough to be the bad contract for bad contract trade bait. If he’s toast shut him down and collect the insurance on his contract.
I tend to agree with Rick that with a do over the Dodgers would not have signed McCarthy, Anderson or Kazmir, and the injury issues could well have been predicted. I agree with Mark that the intent was good and a shorter term bridge to the younger arms but the risk was there and it manifested. I think with a do over they would not have backed out of the Iwakuma or Chapman deals either. Maeda wanted to be a Dodger with similar arm concerns but signed an incentive laden deal. Jansen’s reaction to Chapman and sharing closing duties may have caused part of the offer pull back with his own free agency looming. I would think a team with a pitching need might take a bad contract if they could unload one of their own. I still would prefer McCutcheon to Braun but some RH sock would really help the batting order. I’m weary of platoons but that may be the most production they can get with the current OF.
Per Fangraphs for this year’s Dodger rotation:
“Those efficiency calculations get even wilder when you exclude Clayton Kershaw. He’s been responsible for 15.1 of the 34.1 WAR the Dodgers rotation has produced over the last two seasons, and even though the team is paying him in excess of $30 million per year, that only comes out to around $5 million per WAR. To surround Kershaw with a decent enough staff to rate as one of the top rotations in baseball, the Dodgers have spent more than $200 million for the remaining 19 wins, or around $11 million per WAR over the last two years.”
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In other words, the Dodgers’ staff is highly rated because of Kershaw. A non-Kershaw Dodger staff has produced 19 WAR in 2 seasons at a cost of over $200MM. Not too good.
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It’s like saying that the Braintrust has put together a great pitching staff because Kershaw was there when they were put in charge.
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You mention all of the prospects in the minors as if they will be the second coming of Kershaw. Prospects are prospects – not proven major leaguers. I hope that, as a fan, some will prove to be fantastic players but there is no way to know that now. What we know now is what the Dodgers’ staff has been over the past few seasons and what it is now.
MJ-I think UCLA will handle Kentucky, but the probable next round opponent North Carolina has the offense to go toe to toe. I’m rooting for Butler to pull off the upset.
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Bobbie-It’s not 3-0 for the Giants it’s 5-3 for the dodgers: 59,63,65,81, and 88 in LA.
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Mark-How about this trade? Richie Allen for Tommy John and a throw in? Allen won the MVP the next year and has 2 HR titles and 3 All Star Games in 3 years with the Sox. John won 87 games and lost 42 in 6 years with the Dodgers and won 20 twice with the Yankees after that. He was in two World Series with the Blue, had a surgery named after him and won 20 games just 2 years after the surgery. That trade was a winner for both teams. Or Rocky Colavito who had won 2 straight HR titles for Harvey Kuenn the reigning batting champion? Colavito found out about the trade standing on first base in spring training 2 days before the season. Some Cleveland fans are still mad about that trade!
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http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/blog/index.ssf/2010/04/50_years_later_colavito_trade.html
I hate this zero sum thinking.
We should hope all trades work out best for all parties. That Hill pitches well, and that Cotton (whose numbers are skewed by a single poor outing) and Montas (who I’m still bullish on) do really well for the Dodgers and As respectively.
You set yourself up for favor if you try to position every trade as a win for the Dodgers and a loss for the trading partner.
The year that Cey had about 29 RBI in April, I was at the game in late April of that year when Cey hit a grand slam against Tom Seaver. The Stadium was absolutely pumped up with people stomping their feet, pounding their hands, and screaming before he hit it and someway even crazier afterwords. Can’t forget that experience.
Here are 3 good article from Fangraphs on the Dodgers’ practice of signing injured pitchers. It does make you wonder…
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-rotation-is-risky-expensive-and-fantastic/
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dodgers-pitching-depth-begins-to-erode/
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scott-kazmir-the-dodgers-and-health/
The franchise’s previous longest stretch without at least playing in the World Series was 1920 – 1941. It has now been 1988 – 2017? Longer?
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Since moving to LA, the Dodgers were in the Series once in the 50’s, 3 times in the 60’s, 3 times in the 70’s, twice in the 80’s. There has been a history of excellence which has been absent in the recent past.
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You can say that getting to the post-season is the only important thing and that after that it is a crapshoot, but I am reminded of Branch Rickey’s saying that “Luck is the residue of design”. The question is whether the team, as currently constructed, is set up to get to the Series. Last year, the answer was no.
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I know – they won 91 games in spite of 28 trips to the DL and 2 months without Kershaw (how about that depth!) but anyone looking at the starting pitching staff from last year could see that it wouldn’t be as good as Chicago’s and probably not as good as SF’s, Washington’s or NY’s either. The team tried to make up for lack of quality with “depth” – but then all of the “depth” was injured.
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As pointed out yesterday, the leading indicator of injury to a starting pitcher is – wait for it – a prior history of injury! A staff based on the McCarthys, Andersons and Kazmirs of the world is a staff just waiting to crumble due to injury.
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I look at this year’s rotation and darned if they haven’t done it again. Hill? Kazmir? McCarthy? How many of these guys will spend time on the DL this year? Who here thinks that Hill won’t be there? Or McCarthy or Kazmir?
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The point is – if luck is the residue of design, how good is the design that contains the same flaw year after year?
We have a lot of catching up to do re the giants. Division titles don’t do it. Beating them head to head is great; finishing ahead of them in the final standings is ok; but a World Series title is the only thing that may shut up the pathetics. I say “may” because they have 3 to our 0. 3-1 feels a lot better, but it, too is just a start. For me, not winning the World Series is a failed season. With that definition, the front office really hasn’t done much to prevent that failure. I love the minors, the prospects, etc. etc., but the front office has yet to deliver the goods, all the while “playing” with gobs of $. Show me the ring.
Mark
I like the way that you wrote your column, today.
I think when you mention the mistakes that the front office has made, the makes everything else you say, seem more significant.
And the truth is every front office is going to make mistakes.
And when you mention the difference in the money that Friedman, and Epstein have had, it explains not only how well the money was spent, it also shows both guy’s strengths and weaknesses, because of the money.
I think Friedman and company, are still learning how to use there money, to sign free agents, because they didn’t have the money to do that before.
But I think they did a really good job, signing Turner, Kenley, and Hill this year.
Even you, didn’t think they were going to be able to sign Turner, and Kenley, but they got them both signed, and for a very good price, by the price of players, in baseball today.
And signing these players, should have gave the fans a little more faith, in the front office.
Because that gives everyone hope that they do want to win it all, and that they will try to sign any of our young players, to make them a Dodger for a long time.
But I know it will be hard to sign Urias, Corey, and Bellinger, with the agent they have.
But the Dodgers do have the money and the minor league system, to do almost anything, so maybe there is hope with these three.
I do think they need to bring a World Series, to LA.
Because not only has it been a really long time, it is of what is the ultimate objective of what Major League Baseball, is about.
Not to mention, we have had to watch are biggest rivals, win three World Series, even after winning the National league West, in the last four years.
And about yesterday’s game, not only did Kershaw look great against a line up, that was close to the Ranger’s regular major league line up, our players, had a really good offensive day.
Great post today Mark! The members of the scouting department responsible for signing Olivera (and also Guerrero and Arruebarrena) were shown the door, international scouting guru Ismael Cruz and others were brought in and signings like Alvaraz, Diaz, Estevez and Sierra are impressing. The organization has also tried hard to help assimilate these players into their program. Faz also cleaned up the Olivera contract mess as well as they could by trading him to Atlanta where his personal issues reared their head, like Arruebarrena before him. Here is a great link:
http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20160311/the-dodgers-and-cuba-past-present-and-future
Kershaw has to be my face of the Dodgers, no contest really with Seager the heir apparent. I am excited for the Dodgers chances this year but am even more excited for the wave of young cost controlled talent on the way, especially the pitching. Now power and speed can be addressed in upcoming drafts, possibly 3rd base. There was just a championship trophy hoisted in Dodger Stadium Wed night, is another on the way later this year? UCLA gets a big test tonight against Kentucky, are they up to the challenge? Oregon was, and Arizona was not last night.
I agree Bumsrap. I don’t need the Dodgers to win the World Series, though about 3 or 4 in a row would be nice. I just want the Dodgers to win more than they lose and finish above the Giants. It also helps that they spank the Giants every time they play them. I live in the midst of Giant country and it makes my soul rejoice at the agony of Giant fans when the Dodgers beat them and when the Dodgers finish ahead of them. Giant fans get strangely quiet when those things happen. 🙂
Every once I see a player’s name who played for the Dodgers since 1988 and it surprises me that I either totally forgot about him or surprised me that he was ever a Dodger. There have been some thin years since 1988.
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The Dodgers have now won 4 consecutive NL West championships. Things are moving in the right direction. I interrupt this message to say dammit its snowing again here in New Hampshire. Back to regularly scheduled programming. FAZ and the Dodgers now need to win a World Series. Enough with the talk. Who cares which GM/President is better or smarter. SCOREBOARD.
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I like this team and I like the players that will be coming up soon. I hope the win lots of World Series. But I don’t need them to for me to be a Dodger fan if they have a fun team to watch and have young players that I can watch evolve into good players. Hope is good enough for me, well that and keeping the players that we watched getting into their primes, otherwise we would suffer like Oakland fans suffer.
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It does not bother me that someone doesn’t like FAZ.
By the way, the photo with myself and the Penguin was taken 4 years ago in the Dodgers Suite.
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Ron Cey and I have a lot in common:
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1. We were both great third basemen (he was in the Big Leagues, I was great in Little League);
2. We both have had a hip replaced; and
3. We both are in our sixties (he is 69 and I’m 63)
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OK, it’s a big stretch! The penguin is almost 70? YIKES! I’m old!
Update #2 on Clayton Kershaw
Very very nice Mark! Throw It Down Big Man!!
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Mark Timmons: “When you are a small market team with limited funds, you don’t always draft who you want – you draft who you can sign”.
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So true, how about this one? “When you are a small market team with limited funds, you don’t always “sign the scouts” who you want – you “sign the scouts” who you can sign.
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I always thought Logan White was pretty good, so I was a little nervous when FAZ “cleaned house” in the scouting department in 2015. Dodgers organization did need new blood there, but sometimes change for change isn’t always good. Looks like a “home run” in the scouting department makeover. Good job FAZ!!
Update above!
There is more and more evidence that FAZ is doing what we hoped they would do and in particular, find the hidden nuggets that would shine after they were Dodgers.
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I like Wil Smith as well. I would like to see Barnes and Smith sharing catcher duties soon. I would even go with Barnes and Wilson this year if Grandal, Puig, and McCarthy could be packaged for a Christmas present not named Braun.
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I have been feeling that Thompson would make the 25 even if he had to wait for May and that Gutierez would not be on the 25, again maybe by May.
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Utley is going to be hard to keep out of the line up in the first half of the season.