Throw Away Game or Investment

In a 401K portfolio, maybe you have only sufficient funds to NOT LOSE, but do not have that little bit extra to think about…what if. Or maybe you can invest your max in your 401K and want to keep that safe but have a little extra that you want to invest for something that may prove to be a very good return on your investment. Some of those investments will provide immediate short-term gains that may continue to grow and become a long term asset, or may start to dwindle and you need to think of an exit strategy. And sometimes they are losses from the get-go.

I think baseball is a lot like that. Sometimes your portfolio is maxed out at 25 and you have to compete with what you have. If all of the assets are working together, there are no outside interferences (injuries), and one or two or three of those assets are performing above expectations, you will succeed. Minnesota Twins come to mind. Sometimes your assets do not work well together, and your losses continue to mount. Phillies, Mets, Nationals? But sometimes you have the luxury of additional assets that you can exploit and maybe continue to separate yourself from the pack. Sometimes those player experiments fail. The most successful baseball executives know when to change that strategy or get out. I think the Dodgers are that team.

So was the Wednesday day game in Arizona a throw away game or an investment? At first blush, it sure looked like a throw away game, but I do not believe that AF or Doc believe in such a strategy but look at moves in longer terms. I know MT likes to use playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers analogy, and I believe that is exactly true. Tony Gonsolin needs to learn to pitch at the ML level. He has proven he can dominate in MiLB, so the team needs to invest some time for him at the ML level and get him to where he is comfortable on the big stage. Is the one game exposure right now all that is needed…just a taste of what is yet to come? Will that one game investment generate positive returns down the road? Regardless of the game outcome, he knows he can get ML hitters out. Now he just needs to command his pitches consistently. He and Caleb can work on that command down in AAA until they are back up again. Because those investments will be paying dividends, if not this year, certainly in the future.

Some are not convinced that Julio Urias is a top of the rotation starter, and others think he will be a CYA candidate with Walker Buehler in 2020 and beyond. Most of us remember his not so great May 27, 2016 debut against NYM in NY. 2.2 IP, 3 runs, 5 hits, 4 walks, and 3 strikeouts. His next start was June 2, and it may have been worse. 5.0 IP, 6 runs (5 earned), 8 hits, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts, and 3 HRs allowed. But his next start on June 7 at home against the Rockies went well. Everything started to click, and except for his July 4 start against Baltimore, his 2016 season was pretty good.

Urias’ shoulder surgery put that investment on hold, and it is back in ramp up mode, and we will soon see whether the Dodgers investment in Urias will generate a serious return (like a WS ring).

Most remember that Clayton’s initial foray into MLB did not portend of the multiple CY Awards and HOF career he eventually unleashed. In 2008, Clayton 5-5 with a rather pedestrian 4.26 ERA and 1.495 WHIP. He had two more good years before he began to showcase the Clayton Kershaw we have all come to enjoy. The Dodgers were in pennant races both 2008 & 2009. So the games were meaningful, and they stuck with him.

Last year’s phenom was Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell. He was always considered a top prospect, and last year he finally put it all together with a season worthy of a CYA. 21-5, 1.89 ERA, and 0.974 WHIP. This year he has been horrible. The Rays are hoping that the investment they showed in Blake Snell prior to last year will come back as they look to contend in the NL East and for a WC berth. They are going to need the 2018 version of Blake Snell.

This year’s phenom is Chicago White Sox Lucas Giolito. It took Giolito a while to meet his expectations, but this year that investment is paying off. He is tied for the MLB lead in wins (10) and complete games (2). Will Lucas provide plus benefits when the ChiSox become relevant again, presumably next season?

The other investment seems to be Joc at first. MT had nice post on the subject, and many were not shy from blasting the Joc 1B experiment. Until Wednesday, the Dodgers had not lost with Joc at 1B, and nobody being honest can lay Wednesday’s loss on Joc. He played poorly and cost a couple of runs, but certainly not the game. Does anyone believe that the Dodgers would have won with Joc on the bench and Belli at 1B? We all know that Joc is about as streaky of a hitter as there is in MLB. Just when everybody wants to dump Joc, he rolls out one of his patented streaks. Will he again, I have no idea. All of the negative comments were certainly warranted, but maybe the patience in that investment will start to flourish later this summer when he can certainly carry a team, or in a trade. Will he get better at 1B? Well he cannot get much worse, but he is certainly not the worst defensive player in MLB. If the Dodgers can win 3 out of 4 with Joc at 1B, I am okay being a little more patient. What did you expect? To go 162-0?

It seemed like a great game to put Tony on the bump for his ML debut and keep Joc at 1B. After all the Dodgers had just split with Greinke and Ray, and now were about to face RHSP Taylor Clarke who has been hit often and hard. Including Wednesday’s game, Clarke has a 7.29 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and a .310 BAA for the month of June. For the year, he has a 6.10 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and a .289BAA. How can you not believe that your bats are going to light this guy up. They didn’t.

I read all of the comments about the game and agree that games count the same in June as they do in September. I agree that to experiment with a position change in the middle of the season does not make a lot of sense. But again, thinking long term investment (chess vs checkers), and knowing that this front office does not do anything that is expected, nobody knows what the thinking is with Joc at 1B, or whether the Dodgers would have been better starting Buehler on regular rest. Or will the investment of one extra day rest pay dividends until the AS Break? How many honestly believed that the RVS experiment would work? I know many if not most on this site were giving the RVS experiment a chance to succeed or fail. So far this is a different offensive team than last year. Would they have been better without RVS, we will never know, but the evidence suggests that RVS has been a positive influence on the offense.

AF and Doc were not thinking about June 26, but were thinking of July/August/September. Some remembered that the Dodgers were so hot in 2017, and then suffered an 11-game losing streak. Many said that it was not the time to take the foot off the gas, just as it is not this year. Beat them all into submission. That 11-game losing streak in 2017 had absolutely zero impact on the playoffs. They beat the hottest team at the time, AZ DBacks 3 games to 0, and the Cubs 4 games to 1. That 11-game losing streak played no part in the WS loss. Just like the one game played on June 26, 2019 game will have no bearing on the playoffs this year.

Some are saying that the Dodgers have to continue to win to get home field advantage in the playoffs. The Brewers had home field advantage in 2018 NLCS and the Dodgers won. The Dodgers had the home field advantage in 2017 WS and lost. I understand that the Dodgers are a much better team at home, especially with Ryu on the hill. But one game played on June 26 is not going to decide if the Dodgers win the 2019 WS.

I am more interested for AF to concede that his investment in relief pitchers have not provided the necessary return far more than Tony Gonsolin starting a game and Joc playing 1B.

DC’s Minor League Lowdown

DSL Dodgers Shoemaker 4 – DSL Rays (2) 9

Pitching did not rule the day for the Shoes. Yamil Castillo (2 IP), Eli Moron (3 IP) and Jose Mendez (1.1 IP)  all gave up three runs. Juan De la Cruz stranded 2 runners in his 0.2 innings pitched .

The offense with only 6 hits collected one run in the first inning on a Marlon Cairo home run and another in the 4th inning on a Juan Diaz single. Two runs came home in the 7th inning, both on Rays error. 

DSL Dodgers Bautista  8 – DSL Athletics 2

The Bautistians’ pitching did rule the day. Starter Abel Moya gave up the only 2 runs in 4 innings on 4 hits and 4 strikeouts. Denverick Martines pitched 2 scores innings with no hits and three strikeouts. In his 8 innings pitched in 2019 he has allowed no earned runs and only 4 hits. He has struck out 7 and walked 3. Carlos De Avila finished up with 2.2 scoreless innings of his own with just one hit and 3 strikeouts. The trio allowed only 2 walks.

At the plate they had only 7 hits but scored 8 runs. One came in the first inning on a throwing error. Seven came in the 7th inning with a little bit of everything except an extra base hit. Eleven Dodgers went to the plate in the innings with the game log showing 4 singles, 2 walks, a HBP, a SF, a stolen  base and a wild pitch.

AZL Dodgers Mota 8 – AZL Dodgers Lasorda 2

The Dodgers played the Dodgers and won and lost. Mota’s team got the pitching and hitting.

Hyun-il Choi started for the Motans and gave up one run in 5.1 innings one 2 hits with no walks and 7 strikeouts. Daniel Cruz continued to pitch scoreless ball with 2.2 innings pitched and 8 on the season with 12 strikeouts. It is time for the 21-year-old to move on up. Yasiel Sierra gave up a run in his inning.

They scored 2 in the 2nd on Romer Cuadrado’s home run  and 6 in the 5th innings on a combination of an Omar Estevez double, an Alex De Jesus single, a Luis Yaniel Diaz triple and an Albert Suarez double.

Tommy’s boys scored one in the 6th on a ground out and one in the 9th on a wild pitch.

On the mound Israiky Berroa did not have a fun time. He gave up 6 runs in 4.1 innings on 9 hits. Orlandy Navarro surrendered  2 runs in his 2.2 innings  while Reinaldo De Paula pitched a perfect 9th inning.

Ogden Raptors   – Grand Junction Rockies (Colorado)

Game postponed – make up game Friday, June 28 as part of a double header.

Great Lakes Loons 3 – Bowling Green Hot Rods (Tampa Bay) 4

The Loons game on Wednesday was suspended due to rain with the score tied 2-2 after 5 inning. Jon Rooney and former Dodger minor leaguer Caleb Sampen were duking it out with a variety of pitches and both giving up 2 runs.  Long man Justin Hagenman came on and pitched 4 inning unfortunately giving up what appeared to be the winning run in the bottom of the 7th inning. A Bowling Green error in the top of the 9th allowed the Loons to tie it up at 3. That error was changed to a hit for Miguel Vargas. Brett de Geus could not strand the runner starting at second in the bottom of the 10th inning although he induced a ground ball and fly out.

The Loons first 2 runs came in the 4th inning on a Luke Heyer sacrifice fly and a James Outman single. The tying run in the top of the 9th came in courtesy of Miguel Vargas. The Loons had two runners thrown out at home in the top of the 8th inning, one on a single and one on a double.

Great Lakes Loons  – Bowling Green Hot Rods (Tampa Bay)

The regularly scheduled game was suspended due to rain to be played as part of a double header on Friday, June 28.

Ranch Cucamonga Quakes 10 – Lancaster JetHawks (Colorado) 2

Josiah Gray continues to make the so-called blockbuster trade look like a great one for the Dodgers He tossed 7 innings with 4 hits, one solo home run, no walks and 8 strikeouts. Gray’s stat line for the season stands at a 2.57 ERA over 70 innings pitched with 16 walks and 86 strikeouts along with a 1.07 WHIP. Austin Drury followed Gray and gave up a run while Connor Strain finished up with a scoreless 9th inning.

The Quakes had 13 hits with every player including a DH having at least one hit. The big inning was the 3rd as the Quakes put on a sound and light show for JetHawk starter Garrett Schilling. Devin Mann , Jeren Kendall and Jordan Procyshen all homered and Niko Hulsizer chipped in with a double. Kendall had a second home run the 8th inning while Hulsizer and Deacon Liput had 3 hits.

Tulsa Drillers 2 – Arkansas Travelers (Seattle) 3

Justin De Fratus started for the Drillers and gave up the 3 Traveler runs in 6 innings while Andre Scrubb gave up only one hit in his 2 innings.

Tulsa had but 2 hits, one a 2-run homer by Jared walker in the 2nd inning. The three hits on the night matched a season-low for Tulsa.

OKC Dodgers  6 – New Orleans Baby Cakes (Miami) 5

Rob Zastryzny pitched 5.2 innings giving up 4 earned runs while striking out 4. Justin Grimm pitched to one hitter stranding 2 runners. Adam McCreery allowed one more run in his inning while Shea Spitzbarth and Kevin Quackenbush tossed a combined 2.1 innings of scoreless relief.

The Dodgers scored one run in the 5th inning on a Gavin Lux double and a Cameron Perkins single. In the 6th inning they scored four times with all the runs being driven in by doubles  – Angelo Mora, Errol Robinson pinch hit, Connor Joe. The walk-off run came in the bottom of the 9th on a DJ Peters walk and a Jon Kemmer double.

It was Kemmer’s first game with the OKC Dodgers after signing out of the Mexican League where he was hitting .355 with 21 home runs, 16 doubles and 49 RBI in 58 games. He was a former 21st round selection by the Astros in 2013.