Come gather ’round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You’ll be drenched to the bone.
If your time to you
Is worth savin’
Then you better start swimmin’
Or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’.
Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won’t come again
And don’t speak too soon
For the wheel’s still in spin
And there’s no tellin’ who
That it’s namin’.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin’.
Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside
And it is ragin’.
It’ll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin’.
Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don’t criticize
What you can’t understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is
Rapidly agin’.
Please get out of the new one
If you can’t lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin’.
The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin’.
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin’.
From the mouth of the great Bob Dylan to my keyboard: The times… they are a changing! This is the second straight winter in which the Hot Stove League has seldom been hot… in fact, the fire seems to have been extinguished. A few free agents have moved, but most of the big ones are still there. The biggest trade of the offseason was regarded by many as a salary dump, because the times, they are a changin.’
Look, I have been preaching for years that long, expensive contracts are dope-fiend moves for GM’s. Andrew Friedman and Jeff Luhnow were among the first to figure it out… probably long before I said it. It used to be that they would sign a player long-term deal knowing full well that the last two or three years would hamstring the team, but they wanted to win now and felt that they could “deal with it later.”
The Tigers under owner Mike Ilitch (God rest his soul) tried that and came close but no cigar! In 2016, they paid Verlander, Cabrerra and Upton $78 Million Dollars. Jordon Zimmerman and Victor Martinez were paid $18 million each and Abibal Sanchez made $16 Million. JD Martinez and Ian Kinsler weighed in at $11 million each and the final payroll was $207 million. Now they have crashed and burned and are in full rebuild.
Teams are looking deeply into analytics and realizing that those long-term deals are seldom successful and they are simply unwilling to pay what agents are asking… and rightfully so. The system is skewed so that teams underpay a player in his prime and overpay him at the end. I am suggesting that both of those situations are totally unacceptable. This is something that both sides are going to have to resolve in the next CBA.
Some fans… maybe most fans, believe that their teams (we are specifically talking Dodgers) should have accomplished a lot more this offseason, but the problem is “The Times, they are a changin’.” The Dodgers want Realmuto but they have an idea what they want to pay and the Marlins want a lot more. Corey Kluber would have been nice, but the Indians were not going to part with him without getting a King’s Ransom in return.
Agents can no longer drive up the prices to teams with their slick sales pitches. Scott Borasss is famous for his presentations using smoke, mirrors and common parlour tricks. Most teams, maybe every team, have huge analytics departments and if we think we see a lot of analytics… I guarantee you they have a lot more than that… a whole lot more.
Frankly, I am shocked that the Dodgers signed Kershaw, Kelly and Pollock to the deals that they did… but glad that they did. Add in Ryu and the money they spent this offseason was almost $200 Million. Yeah, thay haven’t signed Harper and they got rid of Puig, Kemp, Wood and Farmer – we will see how that works out later, but I still say that RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW, this 2019 Version of the Dodgers is better than last years version… maybe a lot better.
Who knows what will happen? So far, no one will pay the prices they are asking. Why should the Dodgers? This is not collusion, this is just a “market correction.” Good things come to those who wait.
That said, Stan Kasten should never be allowed to speak. That was dumber than a bag of hammers!
Finally, Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com quoted Justin Turner as saying this about Corey Seager’s comeback:
Having struggled when he returned from knee microfracture surgery in 2016, Turner offered Seager a cautionary message.
“Hopefully he doesn’t put too much pressure on himself to go out and try to be an impact guy,” said Turner. “There will be a little bit of a curve trying to build his way into it. Just the understanding it’s not easy — there will be good days and bad days.
“To expect to come back and be Corey Seager, All-Star shortstop, from Opening Day on is probably unrealistic after having the injuries he’s had. Just so he doesn’t beat himself up if he doesn’t feel right for the first 25 games. There is a period it will take to get back in the groove of things. Coming back from my knee, I didn’t feel myself for two months. You can still do things to help the club win, but you’re still not you yet.”
Carey Osborne of Dodgers Insider has a great interview with Rick Honeycutt on why he thinks the Dodgers pitching (which has been the best in baseball the past two years) can be even better in 2019.
If these two guys are smiling like this in October, every little things gonna’ be allright!
(Photos by Jon SooHoo and Juan Ocampo/Los Angeles Dodgers)
Discussion (92)
Disagree, not disagreeable
… and there is this:
https://dodgerblue.com/rich-hill-believes-dodgers-have-really-good-chance-to-win-world-series-in-2019/2019/01/31/
Dodgerpatch was making he hungry and thirsty for a beer. I had to grab a Daredevil Liftoff IPA. By the way, that’s what we do: We do more craft beer breweries in the USA than anyone.
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Water is Life
Beer is 90% Water
Therefore Beer is Life!
I can’t find the guy who posted this yesterday, but he referred the article in the wednesday sports section of the LA Times. Andy McCullough had a must read about the current status about free agency. Read that and you will see that the Dodgers so far have awarded the biggest contracts to free agents,(Kelly, Pollack). Times have changed, and while the players don’t like it, teams through analytics have finally figured out what Mark has been preaching for the past 2 or 3 years about the “Dope Fiend” moves. Long term contracts are going the way of the dinosaur. The industry will adjust, but like David Freese said in the article, he was so glad to accept the Dodgers option rather than test the free agent market over 30 years of age. So let’s not rag on Freidman not going for Harper( Who in my opinion is straight up poison in the Dodger clubhouse). If he or Manny Moe were so wanted, how come they haven’t signed yet? Sign of the times… Both Harper and Machado linked to the Pads and White Sox? Really? In my neck of the woods that’s called sloppy seconds…
Wade Miley to the Astros.
Kaybear is going to be very popular in LA.
What does he have left to tighten up with his game?
From a Logenhagen chat today:
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Jack: I’m a Dodger fan and my brain has been melted by the last two World Series losses, pessimism is all I know. Can you convince me that Keibert Ruiz isn’t Dioner Navarro?
Eric A Longenhagen: I have a 7 on his bat and he has the most accurate arm I’ve ever seen.
`
Sir Nerdlington: Do you believe in the changes Gavin Lux made? He’s not on the 40-man but is there a chance he plays in Chavez Ravine this year?
Eric A Longenhagen: Buy that he’s made offensive progress, don’t think he’s a SS anymore tho
`
NotGraphs Revivalist: Very random question – which pitchers in the top 100 prospects would you expect to have the heaviest ground ball rates?
Eric A Longenhagen: uh, Kyle Wright or Dustin May?
`
From Keith Law chats:
`
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Joe: Would it make any sense for the Dodgers to trade Ruiz in a deal for Realmuto?
Keith Law: Definitely not. And I don’t think they will.
`
Kevin: I believe Mitch White made a midseason list or was at least a name to watch for you previously, did you get to see him last season? Any chance he ends up getting a spot start with the Dodgers this year?
Keith Law: He was on my midseason list over in 2017. Has had trouble staying healthy, and when he’s pitched his stuff has varied widely.
`
Bilal: who’s getting the bulk of the starts behind the plate for the Dodgers by the All-Star break: Barnes, Smith or Ruiz?
Keith Law: Smith.
`
Nook: Is Bellinger still young enough to make significant strides offensively, or do you think 2018 was a realistic showing of who he is?
Keith Law: He’s still 23 so age isn’t a concern, but the way he swings leaves him vulnerable to a couple of pitching plans and he has to show he can adjust and shorten up if he wants to be more than he’s already been.
`
Kimmy: Dennis Santana: 4th-starter ceiling?
Keith Law: More likely reliever for me. I feel like if he starts he’d be more than that, but the odds are he’s a reliever.
`
Ave Maria: Is there a pitcher in the Dodgers system you’re particularly high on at the moment?
Keith Law: Several. You’ll see a couple of those names Monday-Wednesday.
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Kip: Arenado or Machado?
Keith Law: Machado.
`
Mike: Thoughts on Dodgers trading away Puig (and friends) and replacing him with older and injury prone AJ Pollock?
Keith Law: Puig was a free agent after the year, so your question is leading, omitting a critical detail – and Pollock may be older but he’s a better all-around player right now.
`
Shane: Have you heard any whispers about what type of punishment the Dodgers face for their international issues and if that is playing a hand in their offseason moves?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard a word about it nor have I asked. Not really my department.
`
Jason: Is Pollock better than Joc Pederson over the next two years?
Keith Law: Yes.
`
Anuj: Is Ruiz and J. Gray for Realmuto too much, fair, or too little?
Keith Law: Too much, and the Dodgers are not trading for a terrible framing catcher.
Dodgers draft order: 25, 31, 79
http://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-updated-draft-positioning/2019/01/31/
From Heyman.
Padres, Rays, Reds, and Braves are still in the running for JT Realmuto.
The Dodgers are still in too, but they are not as engaged, as these other teams are.
That sounds bleak, but maybe Friedman is playing hard to get.
The GM who was formerly rebuilding the Braves, said he thought two top twenty prospects, and an major league player, would be a fair amount for two years of Realmuto.
This is a steep price to pay:
1:44pm: The Lakers let Demps know that one of their potential scenarios for Davis would include Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, Ivica Zubac, and a first-round pick, a source tells Turner (Twitter link). ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne (Twitter link) hears that it’s “common sense to assume no one but LeBron James would be untouchable.”
Barnes’ baby is due in May.
As long as Pollock is healthy, I think this will be lineup:
C – Barnes/Martin
1B – Bellinger
2B – Muncy
SS – Seager
3B – Turner
LF – Pederson/Taylor
CF – Pollock
RF- Verdugo/Kike
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Kike will move all over too and Toles and Freeze will be bench players.
https://www.dodgersnation.com/the-dodgers-zips-projection-model-is-out/2019/01/31/
Interesting projections for the team this season. Maeda and Hill project higher than Ryu. Catching higher than I thought.
A Dodger Legend with a Future Dodger Legend:
I really like the Rick Honeycutt interview. I totally agree that our pitching has the chance to be better. Adding Kelly and Urias back into the mix is like adding a premier starter and reliever to an already dominant staff. If Kershaw and Ryu are healthy we’ll get more innings of top shelf starters compared to last year. I also think we’re much deeper with high upside guys like McCreery, Thieren and Kasowski nearly ready. We can also use a healthier Garcia, Cingrani, Santana and Fields. But, it’s hard to say that all of them will be healthier this year, or if their injuries will get worse and require surgery. Floro and Alexander are candidates to refine their skills and get even better. Baez can step forward or regress back to El Gasolino. Ferguson will be available whenever they need him to step in. Stripling could be deadly out of the pen. I can’t say that I follow other teams as closely as the Dodgers, but it’s hard to image anyone other team being this deep. And this doesn’t even include possible surprises with quality arms that could be promoted during the season like Alvarez, Gonsolin, May, White, Sborz, Sheffield, Holmes. And I’m probably forgetting some.
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Our pitching is better and hopefully our lineup can step up with the loss of Kemp, Grandal and Puig. Kemp and Grandal carried the Dodgers at times during the season. Unfortunately, they also went into deep slumps at times and couldn’t hit at all. Lefties were our kryptonite, so hopefully all this can be counter balanced with more consistent hitting and a better approach. Pollock makes up for the loss of Puig, that’s a wash. We really need Barnes to help make up for Grandal. Kike and Joc maybe makes up for Kemp. Second base will be better to start the season as Forsythe was horrible. Seager is going to be a welcome addition back into this lineup. I’m hoping Verdugo is ready to step up, for Mark’s sake!
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I’m sure ready for the season to start!
Dammit, not quick enough!! Lets give Harper 100M for 3…. yep, that’s the ticket…
Great stuff M.T. – Gotta jump in quick before the doomsday folks chime in…
If Harper were willing to sign a contract for 3 years, Dodgers should make an offer? First year at $20 millions and the next 2 years at $40. That would create flexibility this season, of course there would have to be some adjustment, but could it be possible, or not?
So the fans would be happy, he would be motivated to play in a contending team and would not be tied a long-term contract
Great read!! I believe those two home grown kids will be just fine!! Do I have faith in our players, absolutely, but do I have faith in the dodgers front office, not quite so much!! I feel these two boys are gonna have a great year.
I must say I liked that one.
Impressive birthday list for today (from Houston Mitchell, LA Times):
*
Notable births on this date
1914: Heavyweight boxing champion Jersey Joe Walcott.
1919: Baseball legend Jackie Robinson.
1931: Baseball Hall of Famer Ernie Banks.
1947: Baseball Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan.
1957: Gold medal winning swimmer Shirley Babashoff.
2016 seems like a long time ago.
Well done Mark.