After losing the series 2-1 last weekend to the Dark Side the Dodgers are in fine shape. The hitters have been in a funk since after the All-Star Break, but it hard to keep focused when you are 20+ games ahead of the nearest team in your division and are about to clinch a playoff spot in August.
Dave Roberts has dialed-down the intensity and is resting players as much as possible… even encouraging them to come late to the ballpark and skip BP. The Dodgers are on Auto-Pilot for the next two weeks. It’s just impossible to maintain the intensity every day. If they did, they would be mentally exhausted by the playoffs. So, you are going to see some good things followed by bad things for the next couple of weeks. Let’s look at the different aspects of the team:
The Infield
Around the horn, the infield is in pretty good shape, save the fact that David Freese is still on the IL. It is hoped that he will be back in early September, still, Andrew Friedman believes in Plan B, Plan C and Plan D. That is why he acquired Jedd Gyorko who rakes against LHP. Well, really he acquired Tyler White, but when that didn’t work out, he went to Plan C. Freese is still Plan A at 1B against LHP, but Jedd is getting an opportunity in case he can’t make it back.
If Gavin Lux gets called up, it may not be until September or possibly, August 31st if they want to preserve an opportunity for him to be on the playoff roster. I can’t see the downside to that, but he appears to be a longshot right about now. Justin Turner has been utilized judiciously and is finally healthy as is Corey Seager who is quietly getting his stroke back. Seager is finally starting to hit like he is capable although the home run power is lagging – It may be next year when that returns, but he is tied for the lead in the NL for doubles.
Max Muncy alternates between 2B and 1B this season, but next year is likely to stay at 1B as Gavin Lux takes charge at 2B in what may be Justin Turner’s last season. This is likely David Freese’s last Dodger season as well, as the procession of youngsters arrives. Kike Hernandez and Chris Taylor are both semi-regular utilitymen in the infield and outfield. Hernandez is a little more flexible but both can play solid defense just about anywhere.
CT3 is the Dodgers’ best hitter with RISP and Kike is one of the Dodgers hottest hitters in the past week. Both will be on the playoff roster. Of course, that is barring injury. Matt Beaty also has a great shot at making the playoff roster but is not a lock. I could envision a scenario where he loses out to Gyorko. Cody Bellinger is a part of that infield alignment, but with his defensive value in RF, I would not be shocked if he played ZERO innings at 1B in the postseason.
Next year, besides Gavin Lux at 2B, I don’t see any infielders being ready. Jeter Downs is another year away as are several others including Cristian Santana.
The catcher is part of the infield the last time I checked and that position is in the hands of Will Smith, who has cooled-off from his incredible start. He has 12 HR and 31 RBI in just 96 AB’s but is hitting .217 in his past 7 games. Hopefully, he will heat up for the playoffs. Unless he is injured, Russell Martin will back him up as Austin Barnes is the odd-man-out!
Martin is talking retirement and Barnes will likely be traded or non-tendered, so the Dodgers will be looking for a backup catcher next season. It won’t be Kaybear Ruiz who is still working on transforming his swing. He is such a contact hitter that the process is entirely different from the process Smith went through. Smith took to the revamped swing-path like stink on a goat. It remains to be seen if he can be a high-average hitter, but I would not bet against it. If Bumsrap tells me he saw this coming, I am going to have him pick the lottery numbers for me.
Right about now, Smith is solidly entrenched as the Dodgers starting catcher going into the 2020 season. Ruiz could be ready by the halfway point, but that’s far from certain. Martin could be a possibility or any number of career backups.
The Outfield
Things are a bit cloudy here as Alex Verdugo is at least a couple of weeks away with his oblique strain. Of course, Cody Bellinger is the best RF in baseball and AJ Pollock is solid in CF. He can still go get it. Personally, I think Alex is better in CF, but AJ has the reputation and experience. If Alex is healthy, I can see Joc in LF, Alex in CF and Cody in RF against RHP. With lefties on the mound, it might be Taylor in LF, Pollock in CF and Belli in RF. This is especially true if Freese is healthy.
Again, Matt Beaty is part of the equation as is Jedd Gyorko who can play LF. Kike Hernandez can play all three spots and play them well, so he is the Swiss-Army-Knife. It will be a battle between Beaty and a man named Jedd.
The Starting Pitching
This week will be key to Rich Hill’s recovery as he starts throwing curveballs which creates more strain on his arm. He is making progress, but the curve will tell the tale. If he passes all the tests, he may make two or three rehab starts to get “stretched out” which means it will be late September before we see him. Four or five innings are about all we can expect from him. If he can’t cut it, Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin might get the call, but it could be Maeda.
Ideally, Hill can regain his form and fill-out the starting rotation of Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, and Hill… in that order. Ryu looks tired right now and the Dodgers have gotten their money’s worth from him. Rich Hill will likely not be back, but May and Gonsolin arrived a year early and are both knocking on the door for a spot in the rotation, as is Josiah Gray. Across three levels this season (low A, High A, and AA), Jo Jo has an 11-2 record with a 2.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and has allowed but 96 hits in 129 innings to go with 145 K’s. The youngster has only walked 29 and allowed but 3 HR. I can easily see him in the rotation next year.
In fact, the Rotation could be Kershaw, Buehler, May, Gonsolin, and Gray. Three Rookies? Highly unlikely, but it could happen. Gray is way ahead of the curve and his MLB timetable. If the Dodgers win it all this season, I could see a “youth movement.”
The Bullpen
We watched the bullpen do their job last night, and Dustin May was very good last night until the 3rd time through the order. It was nice to see the bullpen do its job. May has amassed 130 innings over 3 levels this season which is the same number of innings he had his first two years. He may get another start, but I think he will pitch a lot out of the pen the rest of the season. In the future, he has “workhorse” written all over him.
For the playoffs, the best-case scenario is that Rich Hill returns and can be the 4th starter. That puts May, Gonsolin, and Maeda firmly in the bullpen, where they have a few weeks to get acclimated. Dylan Floro allegedly was drawing raves in his bullpen session on Monday. It turns out he has not been healthy all year. If he can get his 2018 form back, it will be a big boost to the pen.
By the way, the Dodgers just passed San Francisco and moved into Fifth Place (5th) in Bullpen ERA, and no inherited runners scored. I know this does not fit some of your narratives… so you have nothing to say, but it’s the truth! By the way, they are second in the NL.
Kolarek did his specialist job last night. Yimi Garcia looked very good and he seldom looks very bad… usually just 1 pitch! Sader closed out the Padres’ final inning. It’s possible all three of those pitchers could be on the playoff roster. Of course, Jansen, Baez, and Kelly are locks. Caleb Ferguson’s rester spot is up for him to seize.
Alexander, Chargois, and even Ross Stripling are unlikely to make the playoff roster. Next year: I look for Ross to be traded. He deserves to start and it won’t be in LA. Dennis Santana, Marshall Kasowski, Jordan Sheffield and maybe even Mitch White could be options in the bullpen.
There is a lot of baseball to be played in order to determine the playoff roster and injuries will undoubtedly play a role. The team is playing with a malaise right about now, but you also need to understand the Yankees were 3-6 in their last 9 games before they played the Dodgers. Players slump. Teams slump. You just hope they don’t slump in the Playoffs.
Rants & Raves
- Pollock, Muncy, Bellinger, Smith, and Taylor sounds like a high-powered law firm. Actually, they were and 0 for 19 and should be arrested for impersonating a hitter… which is a felony in this state of the union. I think Cody is mentally taxed. He should sit for two games to clear his head.
- Quick: Which NL Shortstops are having a better season than Corey Seager. Only three: Story, Turner, and Baez. Watch out, Corey is rolling!
- Gavin Lux took the collar and now sits at .400. The Dodgers should call him up tonight and preserve that.
- Estevez had 3 hits for Tulsa last night as did Conner Wong. PLaying 3B again, Wong went 3-5 with a HR and a double. He is hitting .326 with a .907 OPS after his promotion.
- Errol Robinson is quietly hitting .321 at Tulsa.
Discussion (58)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Magic number 10
Playing at Petco is almost like a home game for the Dodgers
What more does this Martin guy have to do to get himself a spot in the playoff bullpen!
Mark where are the stats that show our bullpen is the best in the league with a four or more run lead!
Who says JOC can’t hit lefties? Good sign guys are going with the pitches and not trying to pull everything for homers
So far, a great breakout game for the Blue. Lots of RISPect and Buehler pitching a shutout. How bout Matt Beaty?! He continues to make his case for PT.
I’m listening to the SD broadcast and I have to say that these guys are some of the best broadcasters I’ve heard this year. Don Orsillo and Mark Grant. Right on top of everything. They called the Hernandez double, fan interference, when everyone thought that the challenge was Smith being out at 3B. They stay focused on the game, are funny as Kruk and Kuip, and are comparable to them in being easy to listen, unbiased, and keenly observing the game and the players. They are not afraid to actually voice their opinions on elements of the game they think need looking at and changing. They don’t seem politically constrained by their network or team. Very refreshing, like two fans watching a game.
That’ll work!
Finally, Bellinger just goes with the pitch!!
He’s on the IL but Tatis is having a better year than Seager too.
I finally broke down and signed up for The Athletic yesterday. Awesome site, great writers for $3.99 a month for a one year subscription paid in full in advance and it’s already paying dividends…
Yes, the baseball is different – an article that scientifically examines the differences with the 2019 balls compared to previous years….
“Lower seams, smoother leather, greater spherical symmetry” are all contributing to less drag on the ball. The smoother leather has also caused a slippery ball and a corresponding rise in walks and HBPs.
https://theathletic.com/1044790/2019/06/25/yes-the-baseball-is-different-again-an-astrophysicist-examines-this-years-baseballs-and-breaks-down-the-changes/
Why is Turner appealing? He’s got the night off anyway
Today:
Joc (RF)
Muncy (3b)
Pollock
Belly
Seager
Beaty
Smith
Kike
Buehler
Ok thanks . Mark, I entered a comment but put an extra space in my name DodgerBlueMom. It told me I was being moderated or something like that. Sorry I am not the hacker or not being hacked. The comment was allowed with my name showing an extra space. I will be more careful in the future.
Did anyone hear of Justin Turner being suspended for 1 game?
If Santana and Ferguson pitched “kinda like” Gray, then I’m “kinda like” Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise.
SoCalBum,
That was another hacker using your name. I deleted it.
We are tracking him. Every time he comes here we get closer. He’s in the vicinity of Poughkeepsie, NY.
Any luck, Mark, on catching the person hacking the names, like what happened to 59inarow, SoCalBum and others?
Some interesting takes Mark. I don’t think you have to be on the 40-man roster by September 1st. You just have to be in the organization. Unless they changed that rule last year, I’m pretty sure that I’ve heard Ned Coletti and others over the years clarify that.
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Barring a trade, I fully expect Barnes to be the backup catcher next season. He knows the pitching staff, he’s cheap, he can play multiple positions. He has value. I don’t see Gray in the rotation next year. No need to rush another guy when they’re arguably rushing May right now. I expect Ryu to be brought back not the case with Hill. I see next season’t rotation as CK, Buehler, Ryu, Urias, Gonsolin to start the season with May waiting in the wings. May might have more electric stuff, but Gonsolin has more command and finishes batters more easily. Until May conquers command, I see him as the 6th guy. Maeda is in the pen or dealt. Same with Stripling. He may deserve to start somewhere but he hasn’t proven that he can stay healthy doing so.
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I’m not a big fan of the 6 man rotation. Usually it means guys who are less sharp with their stuff. Anyone know what was the official first day of the 6 man? The Dodgers have a lot of off days in September. They will be fine, but they must get Freese back. JT can expect a suspension for making contact with the ump last night. I don’t think he meant to , but he cut him off which led to the contact. MLB will almost always take the umps side.
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I watched Screwball on Netflix. It is amazing to me the A-roid has a job announcing Sunday night and still has his name on the field at the U of Miami.
No predictions, just enjoying a great regular season.
How is it that two can have the same nickname? The above is most definitely not my post, or thoughts
DODGERS ACTIVATE CATCHER RUSSELL MARTIN
CATCHER AUSTIN BARNES OPTIONED TO TRIPLE-A
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers announced that they have activated Russell Martin from the bereavement list and have optioned catcher Austin Barnes to Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Martin, 36, returns after missing three games. He has appeared in 69 games for the Dodgers, hitting .207 (36-for-174) with four homers and 15 RBI. The backstop has played in 1,679 games, recording 189 homers and 766 RBI in his 14-year Major League career.
Barnes, 29, played in one game in his second stint with the Dodgers, going 1-for-3 on Sunday night. In 71 games with the Dodgers, he batted .198 (41-for-207) with 11 doubles, five homers and 23 RBI. He played in 20 games for Oklahoma City, batting .250 (19-for-76) with six homers and 16 RBI. In parts of five Major League seasons with the Dodgers, he has amassed 17 homers and 78 RBI with a .227 batting average.
59, interesting comp there on Dreifort. I recall Tony Gwynn saying Dreifort had some of the best stuff he’d ever seen , which is probably the greatest compliment any pitcher has ever received, considering who it came from!
Mark, I read (actually skimmed through it) your post earlier this morning, and don’t remember enough specifics to comment on. However, when thinking about next year, I think it’s really premature to predict what roles a lot of people are going to have, especially a lot of the young guys. We have no idea what will happen during the off-season, and, in fact, what the Dodgers do during this upcoming post-season my well influence the off-season.
And when it comes to young players, the hardest thing to predict is the level of maturity they may or may not achieve.
I for one just prefer to wait for things to play out. But I also understand that speculating is just a lot of fun.
A nicely optimistic take on things., which is always appreciated. However, from my perspective, the Dodgers are not as good as either the Yankees or the Astros, and would not beat either of them in a World Series, so there goes the potential title, unless somehow neither of those make it to the Series. Right now, I’m not at all sure that we will get out of the NL playoffs.
This is not just because we’ve lost a few games lately. It’s because this roster with its many renovated players, is simply not as talented as NY or Houston. When Bellinger stops hitting, you can see the limitations of the lineup. There’s no one else hitting over .270, and there is some lack of speed. Defensively, I thought we were good, but we insist on moving so many players around, that I don’t see much defensive continuity, although maybe that could return. Our starters were great, but is Ryu regressing to his historical mean? Kershaw has done a fine job in revamping his approach, but he is clearly no longer dominant. We’ve got Buehler, and then either Maeda, or rookies, or the one hope, Hill, who likely will not be ready to start in the postseason. The bullpen is not a strength, the best we can hope for is that it is not a weakness.
For us to win it all, we would need great starting pitching, adequate enough relief, and then Bellinger to somehow get back to his play in the first two months, plus someone else stepping up in a big way. This may sound very unfair to him, but it has occurred to me that any team which needs to play Kike’ Hernandez for at least half the games, is never going to win a championship. It’s not him, per se, it’s just that really good teams do not have to use players like Hernandez or Pederson in the starting lineup. This is because they strive to have a solid player at every position, not to save money by keeping lower-paid players who hit .240 on the roster.
Finally I am wondering about the leadership on the club. Who are the players who can inspire or lead, particularly when things are not going well? Bellinger and Seager are remarkably taciturn, and no else but Turner has the status to motivate or kick a few rear ends, and he seems to use most of that energy criticizing the umpires, which is futile. Catchers lead, but not rookie catchers. And as for Roberts, well, he doesn’t cause problems, but he’s not inventive or strategic. Obviously, we’re very good, or we would not have won all those games. But I don’t think we are the best, and so I am expecting either a surprise flameout against the Braves or even the wildcard game winner; or more likely, to see us pretty much dominated in the World Series by the Yankees or Astros. If I am wrong, and of course I hope I am, I will certainly be happy to admit it.
With his favorable contract Maeda isn’t going anywhere next year. He’ll be our #5 starter and if Hill is healthy I bet AF brings him back for another year. Gonzo and Grey start in OKC next year. And May is long relief waiting if injury happens.
I remember in 2013 we lost 8 in a row late in August. 2017 we lost 17-18. Last year we went thru our struggles in Aug. This seems normal now. I wouldn’t be shocked if we stunk it up the rest of this week. Perhaps it’s because we have a 20 game lead, a magic number of 11 by Aug 27, and experts have handed the Cy Young and MVP to our guys.
Whatever it is, eventually we’ll get out if and then get geared up in Sept. This is the norm, so I accept it.
There is no mention of Urias in the starting rotation.
Good morning all. I agree it must be very hard to maintain intensity with a 20 game division lead. Resting players is fine but if they are scheduled to play in the game, and are in a hitting slump, should they bypass BP? Gyorko over Beaty for playoff roster? I will take Beaty any day. I think he has earned it.
These are just my inexperienced opinions and do not wish to sound too negative. Good things about last night? I was truly mesmerized by the movement on May’s pitches and thought Kiks home run was awesome along with a good job by the bullpen. Put aside this disappointing loss and forge ahead to win the series.
Good stuff. There is still a way for Lux to be on post season roster (if needed) if he is not added until Sept. 1 or later if he replaces a player on the IL (MLB has to approve). The upcoming Hot Stove League will be interesting
Good analysis M.T. but I thinks as I said a couple daze ago the Blue are in a dreaded slump… We have been blessed to haven’t had many slumps this year…
52 K’s in 4 games!!! Ouch..
Auto pilot for the next couple weeks??? I’ve got expletives for that!!! You play out of a slump… Check some of the old videos of your hitting and stay away from the 3 musketeers of hitting…
Relax and this too shall pass..
This is and will continue to be the Dog Days of Summer…
P.S. We have 5 more games with Madres… Put the boot on the neck… Don’t let them go into the off season with confidence… They will be a pain in our arse for the next couple years…