The Silver Lining

Great game today. Everyone filling up the strike zone. Baez our set up man? These games would have had better outcomes if Turner was playing. Turner went all out in a sim game. Feels good.

Well, that was easy.

Ryu pitched with great confidence. As though he is healthy and not afraid to cut loose. I liked what I saw. Murphy cost him about 10 pitches early in the game. On Pederson: he was doing the shuffle in spring training. Probably still is. He needs to be sent to the minors, play every day and try to find that key. He’s still young enough to keep around. The team really needs Turner. He is good enough to carry the lineup. I hope he can go 100% when he returns. Too many strikeouts. Bellinger doesn’t let striking out multiple times bother him. I guess that’s good.

Idiots! And the pitch count strikes again.

Bluto

I took a closer look at Joc’s second half numbers, in 2016.

He only played in ten games in July, and he only had 41 at bats.

So his July numbers look good, but that is a very small sample size.

And in August he didn’t do well, and he had 96 at bats, in August.

In September and October combined, he had just over 80 at bats, and he had good numbers then.

So actually Joc only hit well, in September and October combined, but the at bats he got those months combined, was more like a month of at bats, not two months.

Because he had 90 plus at bats, in August.

So actually Joc only hit well in the second half of that season, for a month and ten games, so he didn’t even hit well that entire second half of the season, in 2016.

So Joc only hit well, in about 128 at bats, in the second half, and he had about 228 at bats total, in that second half.

So Joc’s positive numbers in that second half, were based on only just over 100 at bats, and that is close to the amount of at bats, he has had this year.

That is to small of a sample size, in a two years plus career, to take seriously.

Grandal’s home/away splits are a little perplexing, given how Dodgers Stadium is considered a pitcher’s park.

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Right? Isn’t it?

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Home: 301 BA 858 OPS

Road 224 BA 667 OPS

Trying again:

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

Beyond the Box Score looks at some AAA starters, including Wilmer Font:

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www DOT beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/6/7/15706434/font-jurrjens-masterson-dodgers-pitching-depth?utm_campaign=beyondtheboxscore&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

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A part of this:

Perhaps most encouragingly, Font’s peripherals suggest that the top-line numbers are legitimate—he is running an higher-than-average BABIP at .333, and his FIP (2.52) and xFIP (2.83) are each more than a point below his ERA. While his age and injury history have kept the hype at bay thus far, Font is sure to get broader attention if he can maintain his early season performance.

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In other organizations, Font, Jurrjens, and Masterson might have done enough already to get a look at a major league start, but there are a lot of names in front of them on the Dodgers depth chart. Scott Kazmir is still around rehabbing a hip injury, and reportedly has begun to regain his velocity. Stripling has looked strong in the bullpen, and may be given an opportunity. Brock Stewart has already made three short minor league starts as he rehabs a shoulder injury, and Oklahoma City teammate Trevor Oaks (the Dodgers’ #16 prospect according to MLB Pipeline) has a 3.46 ERA and a K/BB over 5 in his first 10 starts. Yet, with Rich Hill’s blister situation, McCarthy’s injury history, and some early shakiness from both Maeda and Ryu, the non-Kershaw portion of the Dodgers’ rotation looks to be a revolving cast of characters again this year. If they were to match the last two years’ numbers, the Dodgers would be using 8 or 9 more starters this year. Just don’t be too surprised if you see Font, Jurrjens, or maybe even Masterson, jumping over the boards and onto the Dodger Stadium mound in 2017.

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Next, FanGraphs looks at Pederson’s struggles. It’s not exit velocity, it’s the swing stupid.

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www DOT fangraphs.com/fantasy/joc-pedersons-less-than-ideal-batted-balls/

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While Pederson displays well above exit average velocity, the problem he appears to be having stems from a combination of pop-ups and weakly hit ground balls (I say weakly hit, because, while exit velocity still his well above average on his balls hit below zero degrees, the launch angle is such that it is difficult for those balls ever to be valuable.) So the question becomes, is this a sample size issue?

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Finally, a look at Ozuna (a potential trade target as per Rosenthal)

www DOT fangraphs.com/blogs/another-marcell-ozuna-breakout/

Beyond the Box Score looks at Badger’s new boy, Wilmer, amongst others:

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http://www DOT beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/6/7/15706434/font-jurrjens-masterson-dodgers-pitching-depth?utm_campaign=beyondtheboxscore&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

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A part of this:

Perhaps most encouragingly, Font’s peripherals suggest that the top-line numbers are legitimate—he is running an higher-than-average BABIP at .333, and his FIP (2.52) and xFIP (2.83) are each more than a point below his ERA. While his age and injury history have kept the hype at bay thus far, Font is sure to get broader attention if he can maintain his early season performance.

…

In other organizations, Font, Jurrjens, and Masterson might have done enough already to get a look at a major league start, but there are a lot of names in front of them on the Dodgers depth chart. Scott Kazmir is still around rehabbing a hip injury, and reportedly has begun to regain his velocity. Stripling has looked strong in the bullpen, and may be given an opportunity. Brock Stewart has already made three short minor league starts as he rehabs a shoulder injury, and Oklahoma City teammate Trevor Oaks (the Dodgers’ #16 prospect according to MLB Pipeline) has a 3.46 ERA and a K/BB over 5 in his first 10 starts. Yet, with Rich Hill’s blister situation, McCarthy’s injury history, and some early shakiness from both Maeda and Ryu, the non-Kershaw portion of the Dodgers’ rotation looks to be a revolving cast of characters again this year. If they were to match the last two years’ numbers, the Dodgers would be using 8 or 9 more starters this year. Just don’t be too surprised if you see Font, Jurrjens, or maybe even Masterson, jumping over the boards and onto the Dodger Stadium mound in 2017.

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Next, FanGraphs looks at Pederson’s struggles. It’s not exit velocity, it’s the swing stupid.

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http://www DOT fangraphs.com/fantasy/joc-pedersons-less-than-ideal-batted-balls/

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While Pederson displays well above exit average velocity, the problem he appears to be having stems from a combination of pop-ups and weakly hit ground balls (I say weakly hit, because, while exit velocity still his well above average on his balls hit below zero degrees, the launch angle is such that it is difficult for those balls ever to be valuable.) So the question becomes, is this a sample size issue?

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Finally, a look at Ozuna (a potential trade target as per Rosenthal)

http://www DOT fangraphs.com/blogs/another-marcell-ozuna-breakout/

I forgot to say that McCarthy pitched better then I thought he would, so I want to give him credit when credit is due!

Rick – the collective funk is something the Dodgers have excelled at over the past few seasons.

This from the Dodgers’ website:

“Logan Forsythe is in an 0-for-20 slump and, in 13 games since coming off the disabled list, is 4-for-42 with 16 strikeouts, including two by Scherzer. Cody Bellinger, in the last 13 games, is 8-for-46 with 22 strikeouts, three by Scherzer. Yasmani Grandal, in the last 10 games, is 6-for-38 with 17 strikeouts, three by Scherzer. Corey Seager, who snapped out of a 3-for-23 slide with three hits Monday night, was 0-for-4 on Tuesday night. Franklin Gutierrez, who did not play Tuesday night, is in an 0-for-12 funk.”

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In June, the Dodgers are last in team batting average of all 30 teams in MLB (.175). They are last of 30 in OPS (.517). They are 27th in runs (15), but 10 of those were scored in 1 game, so they have scored 5 runs in 5 games otherwise. They are last in HR (3).

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Here are the OPSs of the Dodgers who are playing much in June:

Gutierrez – .000

Forsythe – .056

Kike Hernandez – .192

Eibner – .282

Grandal – .333

Seager – .535

Utley – .536

Barnes – .558

Gonzalez – .739

Bellinger – .781

Puig – .899

Taylor – .914

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In short, 2 guys over .800 in June so far, and Stasburg tonight. The team faces the Mets, Rockies and Indians this month as well. This group slump thing that they tend to do drives me crazy. The all utility player lineup that they roll out against lefties (Taylor, Kike, Eibner, Gutierrez, Barnes) drives me crazy. It’s nuts that they will score 6 runs/game for several weeks and then everyone stops hitting all at once.

We are missing Turner’s all-around play, but also Toles in the lead off spot, where he was a spark plug. The lead-off role is a dilemma right now with Forsythe, Utley, and Pederson not cutting it.

It wasn’t lack of pitching that cost us the game last night.

Had to leave for Chicago at 5 AM this morning. I’m not back until late tonight so today the inmates can run the asylum!

Disappointing defeat.

Batters gone to sleep.

So, the Dodgers didn’t listen to me and the Giants got Sam Dyson., I’m pissed!

10 Ks for Dodger hitters already and we’re not out of the 4th. Can’t anyone on this team hit?

Bum,

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I was looking at your stats that you posted earlier. You can’t cherry pick stats.

Bellinger:

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April – .286

May – .245

June – .294

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Pederson:

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April – .220

May – .182

How about we take on Stanton’s contract and Osuna for Pederson, Puig, Oaks, Kazmir, Alvarez? I would rather have Yellich than Stanton but would settle on Stanton. Of course the real piece there is Osuna.

I’ve seen some of these rumors floating around.

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Puig to Mets for Harvey. Yes, other players would be involved.

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Osuna to Dodgers or Cards. Marlins need pitching and prospects. Marlins are out of it this year so maybe Toles, Verdugo, Oaks, Hatcher, Maeda for Osuna.

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Outfield = Osuna, Pederson, Bellinger, Taylor

Infield = Turner, Gonzales, Forsythe, Taylor, Utley, Bellinger

I’m sorry friends but I can’y help it. I’m not the boy who cried wolf or did I see some Dutch boy with a finger in the dyke, but so many others have that it’s making me wonder. But I am hearing nothing from trusted sources and I think I probably trust those here more than elsewhere. My own eyes are seeing some of the evidence that something extremely major is happening but I learned to doubt my own eyes. Thusly I’m asking you all to look into this planet X thing somewhat open minded and give me some feedback. I’m not with fear, actually I don’t even really give much of a rats ass about the ‘me’ in this issue. I’m not in panic at either side of the line but there’s too much to simply ignore.

This from MLB.com about the Dodgers’ rotation:

” The rotation, while effective, has durability concerns. Among the seven pitchers to start at least one game for Los Angeles this season, six have spent time away from the active roster due to injury or assignment to the Minors.

Rich Hill has had two stints on the disabled list due to a blister on the middle finger of his left (throwing) hand. Kenta Maeda had a tight left hamstring, Brandon McCarthy a dislocated left shoulder, Hyun-Jin Ryu a left hip contusion. Lefty Alex Wood is idled by an inflamed joint in his throwing shoulder. Julio Urias is pitching well, albeit with a high walk rate, at Triple-A Oklahoma City.

The group of six has combined for one Major League regular season of 200-plus innings — by McCarthy in 2014. And then there is Clayton Kershaw, who’s done it five times.

Thus, the Dodgers must ask themselves: Are they comfortable with the risk that two of the aforementioned starters won’t be available in October due to injury? The group’s collective history suggests it’s reasonable to expect that level of attrition.”

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The article, which is on the Dodgers’ website, suggests that the Dodgers’ starting pitching is not reliable enough to take them to October and that they need – you know – someone who can actually take the ball every 5 days and pitch.

Rudy, I agree with you 100 %. Three guys need to go. They are Gutierrez, Romo, and Hatcher. Why Eibner is on the team I do not know. Joc will be sent to AAA. He will have to find his hitting stroke there or will be traded. We really do need a strong right handed outfielder. Ozuna looks better all the time.

Wood is coming back. We need him. I thought Ryu pitched well last night. We need McCarthy to have a good game.

MJ, I agree with you on Kike. He did not look good last night.

Roster management will be a challenge. I think that they signed Gutierrez because of his history hitting lefties, but his physical condition is such that he isn’t reliable. He can’t play defense any more and you never know if he will be able to hit, given his ankylosing spondylosis. Eibner isn’t a big leaguer. He is just taking up space, but given the number of utility infielders that the Dodgers have playing OF these days, they have to do something.

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When Turner returns, he plays 3B. I assume that Forsythe plays 2B (although he hasn’t done anything since returning from the DL). Eibner returns to AAA where he belongs. This still leaves the Dodgers with a utility INF playing CF (Taylor). He doesn’t look like a CF to me. There are times that he is the only guy hitting though, so I understand why he is playing.

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Bellinger has mostly stopped hitting. They have to keep playing him to see if he will adjust, and of course he does lead the team in HR, so there is that. Gonzalez appears to be done. Will he pick it up in the 2nd half?

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Romo should be gone. When Avilan is ready to return from the DL I would DFA him.

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They still have too many SP who give up too many runs early and don’t pitch enough innings. Goody – Ryu went 7 IP yesterday but had given up 4 runs in 4 innings and the Dodgers never got back into the game. It’s like Maeda giving up 3 runs in the 1st two times in a row, or Hill walking too many guys and struggling to make it 4 IP. Something has to change. The only starters that I have faith in now are Kershaw (natch) and McCarthy (I never thought I’d be writing those words).

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I still think they need a RH outfield bat and a more reliable starter. This series against the Nats reveals what I have been concerned about. We have Kershaw against Strasburg but Ryu vs. Gonzalez wasn’t a good matchup and neither is McCarthy vs. Scherzer.

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The 7 man rotation/10 day DL shuffle might get them through the regular season but won’t work in the postseason.

I feel Forsythe will come around but Gutierrez and Eibner are simply taking up space, along with Hatcher and Romo.

Turner will take one spot on the roster when he returns this weekend, but that still leaves three spots that need to be upgraded.

Mark

I felt exactly like you did, about Ryu’s performance, last night.

All Ryu needs to do, is bare down in those RBIs situations, better.

If he would have done that last night, he would have only gave up, a couple of runs.

He was out two years, so it is going to take him a little while, to get where he wants to be.

Ryu is a pitching better, with each start he gets.

And he was pitching against a team that has a lot of players, hitting the cover off the ball, so Ryu’s outing, wasn’t that bad, and the increase in his velocity, is a really good sign, just like Mark said.

I really think Ryu is pitching better, then both Hill and Maeda.

Because those two guys, are only pitching five innings or less, most of the time, and they are giving up three runs on an average, or more, in the five innings, that they pitch.

I still don’t like having our utility players, playing against the Nats everyday line up, especially with the great offensive start, the Nat’s players have had, from the beginning of the season.

It is just to hard to win like that!

I also think our utility players, except for Taylor, are all over exposed, right now.

They have been playing to much, because of Turner, Logan, and Joc being out.

Kike and company, are getting to many at bats, and they are showing their deficits, right now.

Kike has stopped hitting, for the same reason, he didn’t hit well last year.

The pitchers have stopped throwing Kike fastballs, and that is why he is not hitting, like he was.

I didn’t see Kike adjust once last night, to the off speed pitches, that the pitchers were throwing him, and the only fastballs I saw Kike get, was from the Nat’s wild fill in closer, at the end of the game.

Kike should have tried to go the other way, but he continued to just try to pull the ball all night.

Kike of course is not the only utility player that is over exposed, , I am just using him, as an example.

Gutierrez has not looked very good lately either, and it looks like his injury issues, and time off, has started to get to him.

I know we need another good right hand bat, but I rather we get a one year rental, because that will cost us less.

And remember how Reddick played, we just don’t know what a player from a team that isn’t in the spot light, will perform in LA, with the pressure of a pennant race, and playing under the lights, for a big market team.

Great article on Logan White and the 2002-2003 drafts.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/06/inside-the-draft-room-the-2002-2003-dodgers.html

I was the first one here to get behind Osuna and Taylor which helps me trust my gut more about Joc than I do other’s gut.

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I find it comical when I read that Bellinger adjusts and Joc does not. Let’s look again at the end of June.

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I admit that Joc needs to do well in rehab games but Forsythe has to keep Taylor from taking his spot at second base as well and Taylor has to prove he isn’t the second coming of Billy Grabarkewitz.

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As it goes that 73% of all statistics are made up on the spot it holds that the gap between Joc’s defense and an elite CFer’s defense is smaller that the gap that exists between Joc’s defense and Taylor’s defense.

Yadier Alveraz – He was reinstated from the temporarily inactive list for yesterday’s game. I have no idea as to what that means. But he’s pitching again. That is what is important!!

Great post Mark, ESPN did talk for awhile about the Dodgers inability to hit LHP will ultimately be there undoing in the playoffs, Marcell Ozuna sounds great.

You have to like what you saw from Ryu last night, it is def encouraging.

Christ Taylor is here to stay, wait, did I say Christ?

“Pederson is batting .200 with two home runs. Although the Dodgers largely have shielded him from left-handed pitching, his .623 on-base plus slugging percentage is the third-lowest of any National League outfielder with at least 100 plate appearances, better only than Hunter Pence and Gorkys Hernandez of the San Francisco Giants.”

Joc is a career .222 hitter, does not play against lefties and is very bad against righties. Just end the Joc experiment already, I’ve pulled enough hair out watching him play over the past two years, CHRIST TAYLOR.