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The Last of the Mohicans

which is one of my favorite movies along with The Shawshank Redemption . but I digress. Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming: Is Starting Pitching Really Overvalued? I ll answer that question with one word: HELL YES! When Jim Bowden penned a blog on ESPN Insider this week about starting pitching being overvalued, it has created a firestorm among Dodger fans that is extremely polarizing. In particular, a quote by

By Mark Timmons8 min readJump to 58 comments

… which is one of my favorite movies along with The Shawshank Redemption…. but I digress.  Now, back to our regularly scheduled programming:

Is Starting Pitching Really Overvalued?  I’ll answer that question with one word:  HELL YES!

When Jim Bowden penned a blog on ESPN Insider this week about starting pitching being overvalued, it has created a firestorm among Dodger fans that is extremely polarizing.  In particular, a quote by Andrew Friedman outraged many fans:

“Starting pitching has become the most overvalued in the industry because, outside of the aces, they are pitching less innings, with less starts as more depth is needed,” Friedman said. “We have a tremendous amount of depth on the prospect side and at the major league end by design. Quantity is just as important as quality in today’s baseball.”

Now, Jim Bowden is not my favorite guy.  I live near Cincinnati and am fully aware of the damage he did to that organization.  However, we all need to realize that he was a MLB GM for quite a few years, which is a whole lot more than any of us.  When he took the GM position, he was the youngest general manager in the history of Major League Baseball. Bowden was named Major League Executive of the Year in 1999 by The Sporting News after leading one of the lowest payroll teams in baseball to 96 wins. He’s a bright out-of-the-box thinking guy.  Look him up – he was responsible for signing or trading for some amazing players, however he screwed up at the end of his career.

You can dislike what he said.  You can even disagree with what he said. You do have a right to believe what you want, but if you don’t believe it you are exercising your right to be wrong! Maybe borderline delusional.  Baseball is changing.  The methodology behind starting pitching is changing… for better or worse, but it is changing.  Here are the facts, like them or not, as presented by Jim Bowden:

  • Five years ago, most teams had 11-man staffs to start the season, with a few going down to 10. Today no teams opened the year with a 10-man staff, but on Opening Day six National League teams (Reds, Marlins, Rockies, Dodgers, Brewers and Padres) carried 13 with eight-man bullpens, and not a single National League team carried less than seven initially.

  • GMs used to build their starting rotations with the knowledge that they needed a five-man rotation at the major league level, and they’d prepare for one or two injuries and make sure that they were seven deep. Now GMs try to have 10 or more starters ready to take the ball throughout the season. The Los Angeles Dodgers won the NL West while using 15 different starters. The Los Angeles Angels and Cincinnati Reds used 15 as well, but the Atlanta Braves led the majors with 16.

  • The medical field also recommends not more than 120 pitches in any start, but many clubs like fewer than that. The average number of pitches per start has dropped from 96 pitches per start 20 years ago to 93 last year.

  • There is also simply too much data out there that says the third time through the order is when most starters get hit and give up the most runs. Twenty years ago, the spread in OPS between a first at-bat vs. a third was almost 60 points; last year that spread had expanded to almost 70 points. Therefore, general managers are building deeper bullpens, not just in quantity to get innings but also quality. Relievers collectively handle more innings than ever before, but they need to be good if teams are going to effectively “win” those games in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings with shutdown relief.

  • Another big change is that relievers are going maximum effort all the time because most face no more than three hitters. But this approach to bullpen usage brings more health risk. Dr. James Andrews, the renowned orthopedic doctor, always preached that pitchers should only go max effort in certain situations where it’s called for but pitch at a comfort zone of around 95 percent to give them a better chance to stay healthy. Accepting that risk for bullpen breakdowns means — you guessed it — a demand for GMs to acquire and develop more depth for their bullpens.

It’s funny, because I was listening to MLB Radio the last couple of days and this is a theme that is carrying true throughout all of baseball. Manager after manager and GM after GM is saying the same thing.  The Dodgers may have been at the forefront of this, but everyone is on board… like it or not! It’s easy to see that too.  Look at the contracts starting pitchers have:

  • David Price got 6 Years/$217 Million from the Red Sox and proceeded to put up a 3.99 ERA in his first year in Boston and is currently on the shelf with elbow issues.  On the table is Tommy John or other unconventional rehab.  The Red Sox clearly overvalued this guy.  He is on the downhill side of his career.
  • The D-Bags signed Zack Greinke for 6 Years/$207 Million and got a guy in clear decline because they overvalued starting pitching.  Zack’s fastball velocity has dropped dramatically and while he is a very smart pitcher, Arizona is saddled with a contract they will not be able to move  – a contract they already regret.  Look at him last night – he’s no longer a dominant pitcher. He’s the same guy he was last year:  a smart middle-of-the-rotation guy.
  • Then look at what the Red Sox paid for Chris Sale.  Sale is 28 and is guaranteed just $37 million the next three years, so the Sox traded two MLB TOP 5 or 10 Prospects (Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech)  and another (Luis Basabe) who is currently #8 for the White Sox for Sale. Moncada and Kopech both are “star material” and Basabe is a very good prospect.  Clearly the Red Sox overvalued starting pitching based upon what they gave up.  I think Sale will be very good for 2-3 more years, but the Sox gave up a lot.  The big question is whether Sale can continue to be healthy.
  • Maybe the biggest exception to overvaluing starting pitcher is none other than our Clayton Kershaw who was signed for 6 Years/$211 Million, but that started when he was 27 and goes until age 32 with an opt out after 2018. I think it is quite possible he will not opt out of his deal in 2018, as GM’s will realize that starting pitching is overvalued and will likely quit giving out stupid, dumbass contracts.  It’s quite likely Clayton will be a Dodger for life.  He is a different breed.  That said, he is still susceptible to injury and missing 1-1/2 seasons.

That’s why you build a team with starting pitching depth just like Friedman did with the Dodgers last year.  They are even deeped this year with Jurrjens and Masterson in the mix at 12 or 13.  It’s not likely that the Dodgers will need 15 starting pitchers again this year as overall health is better and the youngsters are more experienced.  There are fewer and fewer pitchers like Kershaw, Sale, Bumgarner and guys of that ilk.  Jake Arrietta, Greinke, Price, King Felix and others are declining  and/or experiencing injury.  You may not like it, but you better get used to it because it’s here to stay.  In fact, I see baseball expanding to 26 or 27 men rosters, which means even more pitchers.  Instead of having 1 guy pitch 9 innings, you will see 3 guys pitch 3 innings each.  Clayton is one of the last of the Mohicans.

From Doug Padilla/ESPN:

  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts continues to say that LHP Julio Urias could join the Dodgers at the end of April. Urias is scheduled to pitch for AAA Oklahoma City this weekend, where he is expected to go five innings and throw 75 pitches.  I think we will see him the week of the 24th.
  • Dodgers LHP Scott Kazmir (left hip strain) rehabbed Friday with four innings and 75 pitches as he attempts to return from the disabled list. Manager Dave Roberts said Kazmir’s velocity was between 84-88 mph. The starter’s potential return date remains unknown. For a guy who hit 94-95 last year, this is devastating! 
  • Dodgers LHP Rich Hill will return to the rotation Sunday against the D’backs when his 10-day stint on the DL is complete. So, when Rich Hill returns who goes down?  I think Ryu will be DL’ed as a precaution.  That’s my story and I’m sticking to it!

Rants & Raves

  • The offense was patient and hit what Greinke gave them.  He really isn’t nearly the pitcher he once was.  All of those bombastic FAZ-Bashers who proclaimed that Greinke is a pitcher who will age well were so full of it that if you gave them an enema, you could bury them in a shoebox.  In retrospect, even Ray Charles can see it was the right move to walk away from Greinke.
  • I like Padilla’s Headline:  Kershaw Sizzles, Greinke Fizzles!
  • If you have not listed to this interview with Andrew Friedman with Mason and Ireland, you are dumber for it!
  • Andrew Toles is tied for the team lead in HR with Yasiel Puig!
  • Corey Seager is back to over .300 and like Nomar said last night:  “He’s a SS.” Stop this moving to 3B talk already.

MINOR LEAGUE REPORT

  • OKC BOX – Won 3-2   Jair Jurrjens  went b6 with 5 hits, 5 K’s and 1 ER.  His ERA is 1.50  What do they do with him?  Dickson is still raking(1.362 OPS) and Bellinger is at 1.057 OPS.  Verdugo was 0-4 but is still OPS’ing 1.007.  Calhoun is a little overmatched right now.
  • TULSA BOX  – Won 3-0   Locastro was 2-4 (.400 BA. 1.103 OPS). Shibuya went 5 and allowed 2 hits, no runs.  Cash pitched 2 shutout innings and Broussard got his second save.
  • RC BOX – Won 5-4  Estevez was 3-5 ands is heating up after a slow start.  Peters was 3-4 and Santana pitched 4 strong innings allowing no ER.  Istler got his first save.
  • GL BOX – Lost 2-0  Davis was 2-3 and is batting .409/1.276 OPS. Rincon is right there too. Smeltzer pitched 5 shutout innings with 1 hit and 5 K’s.

UPDATE

Tonight’s Lineup

  1. Forsythe  2B
  2. Seager  SS
  3. Turner  3B
  4. Puig  RF
  5. Gonzalez  1B
  6. Thompson CF
  7. Hernandez  LF
  8. Barnes  C

GAME  NOTES

TODAY’S MUSIC

Discussion (58)

Disagree, not disagreeable

Be civil — moderation is real. Links may need a moment of review.

  1. SCDodgerFanApril 16, 2017

    What must Fields be thinking he needs to do to stay on the team in the bullpen? 3IP, 1H1BB, 6 K’s, .100 BA.

  2. BobbyApril 16, 2017

    Walker Buehler today: 3ip, 2hits, 8k.

  3. HawkeyeDodgerApril 16, 2017

    Thompson should go back down to AAA. They sent him down for a reason and getting 10 or 11AB’s doesn’t accomplish their goal. He’s not a good enough defensive player to warrant finding his timing at the big league level. If there is still a spot on the 40-man, Dickson can’t be any worse defensively than Guetierrez these days.

  4. BobbyApril 16, 2017

    I have so much confidence when Alex Wood comes into the game as a reliever. I hope he realizes that this may be his ticket to becoming big time. I trust him!

  5. Mark TimmonsApril 16, 2017

    Did someone say Puig could not hit cleanup?

    I didn’t think so.

  6. Mark TimmonsApril 16, 2017

    That’s the Kike Hernandez I know and love. His love for the game is back and he is a very unique player.

  7. Koufax 32April 16, 2017

    Mark, I just discovered that you were back online. Boy have I missed your comments. You are spot on about how pitching is baseball is changing. I’ve been going to games since my dad took me to see the Dodgers in 1958. I live in Reno with my XM Radio and MLB package so I watch or listen to every game along with my wife, 4 kids, 14 grand kids and 2 great grand kids. You notice the XM and MLB package were listed first. Drives my wife nuts. But when you have the Dodgers in your Blue Blood, I can’t control the passion.

    Welcome back!!!!

  8. Mark TimmonsApril 16, 2017

    If you have been watching you might have some idea why Kike is on the team…

  9. HawkeyeDodgerApril 16, 2017

    https://www.google.com/amp/deadspin.com/jim-bowden-caught-stealing-from-fake-twitter-account-d-1614081824/amp

  10. Mark TimmonsApril 16, 2017

    Update above.

    Lineup and game notes.

  11. dodgerdennyApril 15, 2017

    Mark, are my comments always going to require moderation before posting? Do I need to do something on my end?

  12. Always CompeteApril 15, 2017

    This is something I have been preaching for some time now. The game is changing and change isn’t always bad. It is not just that we do not see 300 IP pitchers any longer, we don’t see 250 IP pitchers. Soon the 200 IP pitcher will be gone. I do not have to like the trend, but I do accept that is where the game is headed. The Dodgers organization is extremely deep in starting pitching. All will not make it, but with the number of current pitching prospects, there will be more than a handful that will. Ross Stripling and Alex Wood would be the #4 or #5 in most rotations in baseball, but they are not with the Dodgers. The Dodgers are very fortunate to have them both in the bullpen ready to start if need to, but more than capable of being a shutdown reliever in a high leverage situation. Hello Andrew Miller. I acknowledge Stripling/Woods/McCarthy/Maeda are not Aces. But the last time I checked, games where the #3, #4, and #5 pitchers started, those games counted just as much as the games #1 and #2 started.

    .

    I also acknowledge pitchers like Kazmir will end up being salary busts for the Dodgers. It is highly doubtful that even as well as McCarthy has started this year, that he can makeup for the two years that were lost. Probably the best he could do is to continue to excel, and allow the Dodgers to trade him. Baltimore has two years to win before their Cinderella Carriage turns into a pumpkin. They need starting pitching. I know some have, but I am not willing to give up on Rich Hill. He has a better chance of fulfilling his contract value than Greinke does. Kershaw and probably Scherzer seem to be the anomaly in the $200M 6-7 year contract starting pitcher. Lester at $155M, and for one year and three games, Cueto and his $130M seem to be decent investments. Greinke, Price, Verlander, Zimmerman, and Felix Hernandez, are not earning their Ace contract money. Strasburg is an unknown right now.

    .

    If Kazmir is still in the 84-85 MPH range, it is more than mechanics that is affecting his velocity. It sure seems like he is an extreme longshot to make the roster this year. 60 Day DL him, and hope the year off helps him, and he can somehow try to comeback next year. It serves no purpose to DFA him this year. 60 Day DL serves the same purpose. The same with Ethier.

    .

    Looking at the roster, I see no other choice for the Dodgers other than place Ryu on the DL when Hill comes back. Ryu has worked exceptionally hard to come this far back, but he is not back to being an effective pitcher. I think the bigger question is who is moved when Urias comes back. One of the relievers will undoubtedly have a meltdown and become the logical choice.

  13. dodgerdennyApril 15, 2017

    MJ, Grandal “wears” down; not wares down. I wonder if you pitched a LH pitcher in innings 1-3 then a RH pitcher in the 4th to 6th inning whether this would force the opposition to start pinch hitting sooner. If so, this would impact the ability of the opponent to have enough hitters to account for situational pitching substitutions in the later part of a game. The pitching change forces the opposing manager to have to make more choices which potentially increases the risk of making bad decisions and, hopefully gives our team an advantage. I’m all for giving the other team the chance to screw up in a key situation and then taking advantage of the error. Also, I’m a big fan of a 27 man roster, and expansion to 32 teams. Let’s give another 120 players the opportunity to earn ML level pay and provide an opportunity for a multitude of players, coaches, MLB managers and executives, etc.

  14. Vegas DodgerApril 15, 2017

    I didn’t see the whole game but saw Grandal take 2 bad swings on a strikeout off Greinke on breaking balls in the dirt. I would like to see the same lineup go tonight as went last night, just don’t think it will happen. Grandal being a switch hitter seems like he could get just one day off a week. Puig is playing every day and Joc should too for his defense alone. I do like Barnes though, he’s a scrapper.

  15. BumsrapApril 15, 2017

    Baez hit 98 mph and 45 seconds between pitches. Maybe they could show baseball bloopers between pitches.

  16. Vegas DodgerApril 15, 2017

    I see your point about Ryu, Mark and Box, the team has a lot more info than I do on where he is right now. Wood is not really stretched out either and is great out of the bullpen. Maeda could probably use some rest here and there too, they were giving him extra days between starts last year. It gets more complicated when Urias is activated too. Hatcher has pitched well and Avilan too, nice problems to have! Let’s see how Maeda pitches today and if Hill has good command tomorrow. Corbin is a tough leftie and pitched 6 shutout innings against Cleveland in his last start. It will be a stiff test and Toles and Joc probably sit and maybe Grandal who had some bad at bats last night.

  17. Knights27April 15, 2017

    I think a lot of starting pitchers get overpaid because they hit free agency after they’ve pitched at their peak and put a lot of wear/mileage on their arms. Their bloated contracts reflect the bidding among clubs hoping they will sustain their performance but these days it’s nearly impossible to sustain such a high level of performance over the lifetime of these contracts (6-7 years! in some cases). Kershaw is indeed a rare case. As many of you, I fear his opt-out, but I am hoping the FO values his “intangibles.” I don’t know how many articles I’ve read where young Dodgers pitchers speak in amazement about the uncompromising dedication Kershaw has for hard work, preparation and attention to detail.

  18. Bobbie17April 15, 2017

    I understand the evolution of pitching. So why all this fuss over protecting young arms? Finding an ace is like finding a needle in a haystack. Should anyone even bother? Let ’em pitch and see what happens. So I guess the thought is there will be a never ending search for that ace, which few will successful at. So how do you find an ace? By letting him pitch. The sooner the better so that if he isn’t one, you can trot out another ace-in-waiting. I think the Bowden philosophy is classic dumbing down. The bell curve turned upside down. The C student that now gets an A. The starting pitcher who really is a reliever for the first 3 innings of a game. Sad, but probably true. Our suits are the leaders in overpaying these guys. How can you defend them when they violate there own philosophy. Or are they learning on the job? I always felts these guys are guessers, with no accountability. Tomorrow they may say that starting pitching is the most important part of the game. Sounds like Washington D.C.

  19. BobbyApril 15, 2017

    I liked what I saw from Baez last night. Granted we’ve seen this before, and then we’ve seen a 95mph fastball right in the wheelhouse too.

    I’m really intrigued by Wood/Strip handling the 7th and 8th and being interchangeable.

  20. BumsrapApril 15, 2017

    I would hope the League would allow teams to use the 10 day DL to ease pitchers like Ryu back onto the active roster. Ryu would not technically be injured and I assume doesn’t have options.

    .

    I am not sure I want to expand the 25 to the 26 or the 27. If a team needs more pitchers then they won’t have the players to platoon. That makes teams like the Dodgers to have more of a set lineup and use bench players mostly as pinch hitters and defensive replacements for injured players.

  21. Mark TimmonsApril 15, 2017

    I think Ryu is trying to “push” through fatigue and 10 days on the DL would give him a needed rest that might save injury later.

    Remember, he has hardly pitched for two years.

    McCarthy at least logged some innings last year.

  22. Vegas DodgerApril 15, 2017

    Nice post today! I do think rosters should be expanded by a couple of spots as teams have a short bench, especially in the NL. The Dodgers have great depth in starting pitching and performance will as it should determine who gets the starts this year.

    Kershaw was himself and looked on a mission against his old teamate! Baez looked good too. I liked the lineup last night, it was long with Grandal, Joc and Puig hitting 6-7-8 and Roberts should try it against a leftie. There were some clutch at bats that were grinding type.

    I believe when Hill is activated Wood goes back to the bullpen and Ryu gets a couple more starts to stretch out. Hatcher should go down but is out of options so it could be Avilan who was up and down multiple times last year and has an option left. Dayton and Wood still gives them 2 LHP in the pen.

  23. SoCalGrinchApril 15, 2017

    In my pre caffeine haze, I thought the picture was of Zach Greinke being chased by the Dodger hitters last night

  24. Boxout7April 15, 2017

    Yes, even a cursory examination of the MLB situation shows that the importance of “starters” is going down. The 300 innings per season starter has gone the way of the dinosaur. 200 inning starters next? Increasing the roster to 27 or 28 players might just do it.

    .

    The 2016 Dodgers are a text book example of “not putting all your eggs in one basket” when it comes to starting pitching. We may not like it, yeah, I would rather have 5 Kershaws, but risking the whole season when a Kershaw goes down, by not having enough depth, is foolish.

    .

    When you add in “facts” like the decreased starter production the third time through the order, the writing is on the wall. Goodbye Mohicans.

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