A Dodgers fan conversation about prospects, trades, panic, patience, and the baseball gods. Written by Bumsrap (even though it says I am the author – I am not!)
Rob: I’ve made a decision.
Dawn: That usually means something regrettable is about to happen.
Ethan: Let’s hear it.
Rob: Trade them all.
Dawn: All who?
Rob: The prospects.
Dawn: Every prospect in the organization?
Rob: Every last one.
Ethan: That’s an aggressive farm system strategy.
Rob: Look, I’m tired of hearing about prospects. Every year it’s the same thing. We hear about
some nineteen-year-old in Oklahoma, somebody in Great Lakes hitting .312, and some pitcher
whose fastball apparently bends space and time.
Dawn: That’s not how scouting reports work.
Rob: Then explain why every prospect description sounds like a Marvel origin story.
Ethan: You do have a point.
Rob: Thank you.
Dawn: Unfortunately, he does.
Rob: Every article says things like, “Elite bat speed. Tremendous upside. Projects as a middle-of-
the-order force.”
Ethan: That’s fairly standard.
Rob: Then three years later he’s playing for Pittsburgh and hitting .218.
Dawn: Also fairly standard.
Rob: Exactly! So trade them all.
Ethan: For whom?
Rob: Whoever is available.
Dawn: That’s not a plan. That’s a shopping spree.
Rob: Flags fly forever.
Dawn: Dodgers fans have turned that phrase into a universal answer.
Rob: Because it’s a great answer.
Dawn: Somebody could ask whether you should trade your car for a reliever and you’d say—
Rob: Flags fly forever.
Ethan: See? Reflexive.
Rob: Listen. The Dodgers are built to win now. Ohtani is here. Betts is here. Freeman is here.
Yamamoto is here. Every season matters.
Dawn: Nobody disagrees with that.
Rob: Then why are we protecting prospects like they’re national treasures?
Ethan: Because some of them become national treasures.
Rob: Name one.
Dawn: Corey Seager.
Rob: Fine.
Dawn: Will Smith.
Rob: Fine.
Dawn: Cody Bellinger.
Rob: Fine.
Dawn: Clayton Kershaw.
Rob: Okay, that’s enough.
Ethan: You forgot Joc Pederson.
Dawn: Russell Martin.
Ethan: Matt Kemp.
Dawn: Eric Karros.
Rob: Stop helping each other.
Ethan: You asked.
Rob: Those are exceptions.
Dawn: No, those are examples.
Rob: Same thing.
Ethan: Not remotely the same thing.
Rob: Here’s my issue. Every prospect is always described as the next great thing.
Dawn: That’s because nobody writes scouting reports that say, “Projects as a slightly
disappointing utility infielder.”
Rob: They should.
Ethan: I’d read that report.
Dawn: “Strong fundamentals. Limited upside. Could someday become the answer to a difficult
trivia question.”
Rob: Exactly. Let’s get some honesty in the process.
Ethan: The truth is that prospect evaluation is hard.
Rob: That’s the understatement of the year.
Ethan: Historically, most prospects don’t become stars.
Rob: Thank you.
Ethan: But some do.
Rob: There it is.
Dawn: That’s the entire problem.
Ethan: Every prospect is basically a lottery ticket.
Rob: Then cash them in.
Dawn: Except some lottery tickets are worth more than the prize you’re trading for.
Rob: Now you’re talking in riddles.
Ethan: Let me simplify.
Rob: Please.
Ethan: Imagine it’s 2014.
Rob: Okay.
Ethan: Somebody offers to trade Corey Seager for a veteran pitcher.
Rob: Depends on the pitcher.
Dawn: That’s not the point.
Ethan: The point is that Seager eventually became one of the best players in baseball.
Rob: Sure.
Ethan: At the time, though, nobody knew exactly what he’d become.
Rob: Right.
Ethan: That’s why teams struggle with these decisions.
Dawn: You’re choosing between certainty and possibility.
Rob: I choose certainty.
Dawn: Of course you do.
Rob: Every time.
Ethan: Most fans do.
Rob: Because certainty wins championships.
Dawn: Sometimes.
Ethan: Sometimes possibility wins championships.
Rob: That’s annoyingly reasonable.
Dawn: That’s Ethan’s specialty.
Rob: Here’s another thing.
Dawn: Go ahead.
Rob: Dodgers fans fall in love with prospects they’ve never actually watched play.
Ethan: That’s definitely true.
Rob: We watch a three-minute highlight video and suddenly we’re experts.
Dawn: Ah yes, the sacred ritual.
Rob: One home run. One diving catch. One slow-motion bat flip.
Ethan: Then the comments start.
Rob: “Untouchable.”
Dawn: Every time.
Rob: I don’t even know if the kid can hit a curveball.
Ethan: Neither does half the internet.
Dawn: Prospect videos are baseball’s version of online dating profiles.
Rob: That’s perfect.
Ethan: Nobody posts the strikeouts.
Dawn: Nobody posts the routine grounders.
Rob: Nobody posts the night he went 0-for-4 and forgot where second base was.
Ethan: It’s a carefully curated experience.
Rob: And somehow we all buy it.
Dawn: Every year.
Rob: You know who the smartest people in baseball are?
Ethan: Who?
Rob: The Dodgers front office.
Dawn: That’s a bold statement.
Rob: Think about it.
Ethan: I’m listening.
Rob: Every deadline, fans demand trades.
Dawn: True.
Rob: Half the fan base wants to trade everybody.
Dawn: Also true.
Rob: The other half wants to trade nobody.
Dawn: Very true.
Rob: Then the front office makes a move nobody predicted.
Ethan: That’s happened a few times.
Rob: And somehow they’re usually smarter than all of us.
Dawn: That’s a surprisingly humble observation.
Rob: Don’t get used to it.
Ethan: The Dodgers have actually become good at both things.
Rob: What things?
Ethan: Developing prospects and trading prospects.
Dawn: That’s the key.
Ethan: They don’t seem emotionally attached to either strategy.
Rob: Unlike fans.
Dawn: Fans get attached to everything.
Rob: We do.
Dawn: A prospect hits .340 for two weeks in Double-A and suddenly people are naming future
Hall of Fame plaques.
Rob: Optimism is part of being a fan.
Ethan: So is overreaction.
Rob: Especially overreaction.
Dawn: The funny part is that fans only remember the prospects who succeed.
Rob: That’s not true.
Dawn: Name five failed Dodgers prospects from ten years ago.
Rob: I can barely remember what I had for breakfast.
Ethan: Meanwhile everybody remembers Kershaw.
Dawn: Exactly.
Rob: So what’s the answer?
Ethan: There isn’t one.
Rob: Helpful.
Ethan: Seriously. Every prospect is a different calculation.
Dawn: Some should be traded.
Ethan: Some should be kept.
Dawn: Some are overrated.
Ethan: Some are underrated.
Rob: That’s not satisfying at all.
Dawn: Baseball rarely is.
Rob: Then let me ask the real question.
Ethan: Here it comes.
Rob: If the trade deadline arrives and there’s an ace available…
Dawn: Yes?
Rob: And the other team wants three top prospects…
Ethan: Go on.
Rob: And the Dodgers have a legitimate chance to win another championship…
Dawn: I know exactly where this is going.
Rob: Do you make the trade?
Ethan: Depends on the prospects.
Dawn: Depends on the pitcher.
Rob: Wrong.
Dawn: Wrong?
Rob: Completely wrong.
Ethan: What’s your answer?
Rob: I make the trade.
Dawn: Of course you do.
Rob: Then I spend the next ten years hoping none of those prospects become superstars.
Ethan: Now that is the most honest thing you’ve said all day.
Dawn: Every Dodgers fan understands that feeling.
Rob: That’s because deep down, we all believe the same thing.
Ethan: What’s that?
Rob: The prospect we trade away is guaranteed to become an All-Star.
Dawn: Baseball superstition.
Ethan: Fan psychology.
Rob: Reality.
Dawn: Not reality.
Rob: Then explain why every former Dodgers prospect eventually appears on television hitting a
home run against us.
Ethan: Confirmation bias.
Rob: I prefer my explanation.
Dawn: Which is?
Rob: The baseball gods have a sense of humor.
Ethan: You know what?
Rob: What?
Ethan: On that point, I might actually agree with you.
Jeff Dominique’s Minor League Report
DSL LAD Mega 7 – DSL Orioles Black 6
RHSP Yadier Zamora completed 3.0 innings. In the 2nd inning, he gave up a triple and then unleashed a WP for the run. He gave up 3 hits and 3 BB to go with his 4 K.
In the 3rd, 1B Ezequiel Aparicio doubled (1). After 2 outs, 3B Hendry Arvelo had a RBI single. RF Erny Orellana doubled (3) to score Arvelo. 2B Juan Macero singled and after a throwing error Orellana scored.
Orioles Black scored two in the 5th on a 1-out BB. With 2 outs the batter reached on a fielding error, and both moved up on a WP. A double brought home both runners to tie the game.
In the 6th, the Orioles Black took the lead. A single, SB, and single put runners on 1st and 3rd. The runner on 3rd scored on a WP for the lead.
In the bottom of the 6th, LAD Mega retook the lead. C Roberto Saucedo walked, and he moved to 3rd on LF Jesus Villaflor’s double (3). Aparicio walked with Saucedo scoring on a ball 4 PB. Aparicio stole 2nd. SS Antoni Urena walked and Villaflor scored on ball 4 WP with Aparicio moving up to 3rd. Aparicio scored on another WP.
Orioles Black scored 2 in the 8th to tie the game.
In the bottom of the 9th. With one out, Urena and CF Helvin Mendoza both walked. Both runners moved up on a WP, and after 2 outs, Urena scored the winning run with a Orellana walkoff RBI single.
• Erny Orellana – 3-5, 1 run, 2 RBI, double (3)
• Doubles – Ezequiel Aparicio (1), Jesus Villaflor (3)
DSL Royals Ventura 5 – DSL LAD Bautista 0
DSL LAD Bautista were shutout with 2 singles.
Discussion (72)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I want to take back everything I ever said negatively about Chuckie. Which would all be today, since I never mentioned him before.
And great job handling Worcs who was great.
I apologize, Chuckie. I loved your couple of knocks and especially the Safety Squeeze, which was perfect.
Looks like LA will keep its 9-game lead over SD. Tatis Jr. hit his 3rd homer of the year in the 6th to tie it at 6. Braves left sacks loaded in the top of the inning. SD has used 5 pitchers so far.
Mets lost again today. They are now 34-44, 10 games under .500. Padres presently trailing the Braves 6-5 in the 6th inning in SD. Machado is hitting just .183. His OPS is .683. He is 0-3 with a K.
Trade Rushing and Smith for more young outfielders. Chuckie is da man!
Pages may have forgotten how to hit, but man, he plays a great CF!
Love Wrobo settling down and pitching a strong game. Love his changeup. Needs to throw it more, especially against righties. He doesn’t let a bad stretch derail him. Something Sheehan and Sasaki can learn from
I thought by now that Betts must be leading the league in strike out looking. But he is not even on the ‘leaders’ list
Chuckie
RHRP Nick Robertson has been promoted to AAA. About time.
Didn’t mean any disrespect towards Barnes or chuckie. But i agree, you have to put the ball in play with runners in scoring position. But I guess that should apply to the entire lineup! I would love to see Chuckie blast one out, especially with runners on base! Probably another low scoring game again tonight. (If it isn’t raining). Would be nice to see them score 7-8 runs in a game again!
Wow, I’ve never read a blog about four backup catchers and two slightly injured regular before. lol. But let me jump in a bit. Barnes would have been replaced five years earlier if Kershaw didn’t demand him as his catcher. But that’s OK because Kershaw could have any catcher he wanted. To his credit, Kershaw has some good years after that with Smitty behind the plate but the friendship was special. And that’s great for baseball.
7:40 PM ET
Dodgers (50-29)
Twins (38-42)
SP Justin Wrobleski L
8-2 2.72 ERA
SP Kendry Rojas L
1-0 1.26 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
DH S. Ohtani L
CF Andy Pages R
1B F. Freeman L
SS Mookie Betts R
LF Tommy Edman S
3B Max Muncy L
RF Alex Call R
2B A. Freeland S
C C. Robinson R
88% Rain
72° Wind 8 mph R-L
I did not understand the animus directed at Austin Barnes and I do not get the animus directed towards Chuckie Robinson. Barnes was loved by his pitchers, especially #22. That endorsement is more than good enough for me. Chuckie is an emergency backup catcher; not a MLB backup catcher, but an emergency backup catcher.
In the 1-0 game against Tampa Bay, Wrobo went out of his way to credit Chuckie with his game calling and management. Last night, it was Lauer and Doc who credited Chuckie with his game calling and management, and Doc with his digits comment.
That is Chuckie’s job, especially for being a backup to the backup catcher. The rest of the team is supposed to hit. He controls the pitching game on the field, and apparently does very well at it. There is a reason for a player who cannot hit has stuck in MiLB for 10 years, and has played in parts of 4 seasons on a MLB roster. It is not his hitting that is keeping him in the game.
Once Smith comes off the IL, Chuckie will be DFA. He may not get picked up off waivers, but I will go out on a limb and say that some team will want him and sign him to a MiLB deal as a backup to the backup emergency catcher, and someone to work with their pitchers.
When his playing time comes to an end, he will be an excellent bullpen coach.
I predict Chuckie will connect once before he’s sent down.
Just finished a workout and a protein smoothie with fruits and nuts. Fred, I put the dental floss in the smoothie so I won’t need to do that again the rest of the day. The good news on my workout is I can still easily bench 240, the bad news is it takes 3 reps of 80 to do it.
Edman won’t keep this up. Pages is sinking like a rock. It’s a flat rock, kinda swinging back and forth on its way down. Betts looked like maybe he was snapping out of it. Nope. .665 for the month of June. .710 for the last 365. Basically an average MLB hitter for the last year. Sad to see.
Smith and Rushing. Rub some dirt on it and get back in there.
Anyone have Rortvedt or Austin Barnes on speed dial?
Braves working Kyle Farmer in as a catcher.
Once again the old adage, giving up solo homers won’t beat you, is proven wrong.
Attendance at Target Field was 35K and change, and looked pretty full. Apparently the capacity is 41,800 but the place looks way bigger from the drone shots. Nice crowd.
I’ve been quiet on Tucker, except for comments breaking down his unusual swing. But it would suit me fine now if he went on the 150 day IL and let Call patrol right field. Sorry Matt and Dad, I lack your optimism at this point.
(yeah, I know, his salary)
Gawd, Lance Barksdale is brutal behind the plate, especially on pitches north and south. He missed 13 pitches and had 8 calls overturned out of 9 challenges. The ABS Challenge System worked last night especially for the Twins who had 8 successful challenges out of 9. After 20 years in MLB, I would hope ole Lance would be better. Maybe he just had a bad night. And maybe not.
Any word on Rushing’s concession and what the plan is if he is out for a while? Chuckie can’t hit.
I like 2 to 1 and 2:30 games, personally.
Congrats to Oklahoma who found their bats when it counted in the MCWS. I though the Tar Heels would win it coming in but once again, I was wrong.
Just curious. I haven’t given up on Tucker just yet. But I do like Buxton. Tucker has to start producing! This lineup is stagnant right now. Will Smith is someone that is sorely missed. Nobody’s giving them the clutch hit they desperately need. Pages in the 2 hole is not working. Smith fills that spot perfectly. They need Tucker to solidify the 5th spot in the lineup. Hopefully Teo’s bat is hot and ready when he gets back!
And I thought Barnsey was terrible at the plate! At least he made contact! Poor Chuckie!
How about moving Edman into the 2 spot? Freddie? Max? Andy is not a number 2 guy!
Any word on Tucker? Dalton? Who gets called up if Tucker goes on IL? Kim?
Lauer was very good last night. Defense saved him a couple of times. But overall he’s been a blessing.
Still concerned about Klein. Clean innings are becoming rare. Tanner Scott is still money!
Hopefully the Dodgers get healthy soon. 5 runs in their last three games? Not scaring anyone are they?
Looking back, Would you take Buxton and his game for 120 games, or Tucker and his game for 145?
“The Dodgers Prospect Problem”
by line Mark Timmons, (with nod to Fred)
Wish I’d written that. Sums up coherently what’s been scrambled in my head for some time now.
As you probably know, I’m with Rob – make the trade.
Was it my imagination or did Freddie look pretty glum yesterday – even after he hit his homer? I hope everything is okay.
Minor League Report added (above)
Chuckie can’t jump out of a boat and hit water.
Tucker and Rushing leave the game with injuries. Rushing for concussion protocol and Tucker with back spasms. Smith got a cortisone shot in his neck; they will wait to see how he responds. If he responds well, he will go on a rehab assignment. Teo starts his minor league stint today.
Bravo!
Chase Harlan, 3B, Dodgers: The Dodgers are promoting their 2024 third-rounder to High-A Great Lakes. The soon-to-be 20-year-old third baseman batted .329/.438/.571 with 10 home runs in 57 games for Low-A Ontario.
Harlan ranked second in the California League with a 1.009 OPS. He hit seven of his 10 homers in home games in an Ontario park that is playing homer-friendly initially. The Tower Buzzer are a new Cal League franchise playing in a new park, so the data is far from complete—but to date, Ontario home games have featured more than twice as many home runs as Ontario road games.
This is a guy who ncould rise quickly! But, the Tower Buzzers Park is a Bandbox!
Fans are greatly underestimating Eric Lauer. He might be better than Joe Ryan. The Dodger Coaches are making him a better pitcher… and it is working.
I maintain that Skubal will cost one of Sirota or DePaula and I would not do that. I would do Hope, Tibbs, Ehrhard (or Davalan) , and Leiter. I think it will take four prospects, as Shubal is a generational talent.
Chase Harlan was promoted to Great Lakes. This is great. I will be in the Fort next week to see the Loons play the Tin Caps. As you know, my daughter lives there and maybe she will be my cameraman. I plan to get some interviews.
I got the best Fathers’ Day Gift ever this year, from my daughter with whom I was estranged for 26 years. We have been back together for 16 years and are very close. Thi is living proof that good things come to those who wait!
Tight game last night, nice to get a 2-1 win and the first team to win 50 games this year.
Miggy Rojas, as usual, with a real nice play in the bottom of the 8th to get the lead runner out on a close play at 2nd. Alex Call on the next play with a diving catch in RF.
Little things make a big difference. Then Tanner Scott closes it out. It’s always nice to win the first game of a series especially on a 9 game road trip.