You may think that the Dodgers WANT to get under the Luxury Tax Threshold purely to save money and that is absolutely true, but there’s another aspect to getting under the $197 million number: If they don’t, they will likely be in violation of baseball’s “Debt Service Rule.” Major League Teams must comply with certain debt to asset ratios, and while the Dodger assets are high, so is their debt. I’m sure AC can explain it better than me, but the Commissioner will not let the Dodgers slide on this one. The other MLB owners do not think it is fair that the Dodgers can outspend them by tens of millions of dollars, and they are making sure that MLB is forcing the Dodgers to HAVE to get under the threshold.
It’s not like the Dodgers are poor or in any financial crisis… far from it! Actually, from what I hear, other owners have complained about this for some time. So, the Dodgers simply HAVE to cut payroll. Now, this is not “official” – I doubt that either side wants it public, but I have read it in The LA Times and heard it from a couple of other sources. I believe that it is true. So, it’s truly moronic to criticize FAZ for not spending this winter. If Yu Darvish is available for $80 or $90 million, then the Dodgers might be motivated to trade Grandal or Wood or Ryu. Frankly, I could see them moving Wood after the year he had in 2017. Sell high!
With Buehler nearing ready and Urias ready later in the year, I could see the Dodgers trading Wood, Grandal and Pederson or Kemp (If they could just get someone to pay even $6 to $8 million a year of his deal. I happen to think that Hyun-Jin Ryu will have an excellent year… and then he walks for 2019. It’s almost a certaintity that Buehler and Urias will be in the 2019 rotation… maybe the 2018 version.
Kenta Maeda is a marginal starter in my opinion, but if he hits his marks, he could make $10 million in 2018, so he is a trade candidate if Darvish were signed. What if the Dodgers traded Wood, Maeda, Grandal, Pederson and Kemp and $7 million a year of his deal? Not to the same team, mind you: Maybe Wood and Kemp (you want Wood, you have to take Kemp) in a package and Pederson, Maeda and Grandal in another for just prospects, then flip the prospects to Miami (maybe Pederson goes there) for Yelich.
Trading all those players for Yelich and prospects would weaken the team depth, but with an outfield of Yelich in LF, Taylor in CF and Puig in RF, the offense and defense would be crazy. Actually, the team would be loaded at every postion.
Here’s the rotation in 2018
- Kershaw
- Darvish
- Hill
- Ryu
- Stripling/Buehler/Urias (later)
2019 Rotation
- Kershaw (if he’s healthy, FAZ will not let him walk, if he’s not, he won’t walk)
- Darvish
- Hill
- Buehler
- Urias/Ferguson/Santana
There’s a solid chance that Yasiel Puig takes another big step forward in 2018. When he came up in 2013, it was just too easy and the next year he backslid a little, because it came to easy to him. He wasn’t a student of the game, he was not serious about it and he did not work at it. His demotion to OKC was a wakeup call in 2016 and he has minimized his knuckleheadedry! Once you have tasted success from hard work, you want to work harder… at least most people do.
Yasiel Puig is one of the TOP Right Fielders in baseball. He’s not going anywhere soon. The trades I mentioned would constitute a BLOCKBUSTER, but the team depth would still include Hernandez, Toles, Peter, Farmer and oh… they are talking about bringing Chase Utley back.
Things could suddenly get very hot, but the thing is: Any moves have to (1) Keep the team under the Luxury Tax and (2) The moves have to improve the team. It’s going to be interesting this last month before pitchers and catcher report.
Discussion (61)
Disagree, not disagreeable
FAZ will not be trading Forsythe, Grandal, Ryu, Wood, Hill, or any of the regulars. FAZ will be just fine with going to battle with 7 of the 8 spots in the lineup set:
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Bellinger
Forsythe
JT
Seager
CT3
Puig
Barnes/Grandal
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FAZ will not sign Darvish. They will not exceed the luxury tax threshold. The rotation will be Kershaw, Hill, Wood, Maeda, & Ryu. Buehler and Urias later in the season. Maeda to the bullpen, probably in September to get ready for the playoffs.
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It will be open competition for LF amongst Kemp, Toles and a Joc/Kike’ platoon. I am not a Kemp fan, but if he does bounce back offensively, that is what would personify a corner OF in my opinion. If Kemp is still with the team after the Freeway Series, Kemp will be the everyday LF and Joc could be a late inning defensive switch. Toles would go back to AAA to play everyday and would be recalled once Kemp gets injured, as he will undoubtedly do. If Kemp is still with the team in July (and playing regularly), he probably becomes a very big potential to trade.
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The only area that I see possible changes is in the bullpen and bench. But I think all of those players would be signed to minor league contracts with a ST invite.
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The only player that appears to be available that I would have any interest in a trade for would be Christian Yelich. I agree with Mark that it will require an overpay, something FAZ will not do. So very little chance that Yelich becomes a Dodger.
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I am looking forward to seeing Jake Peter, Max Muncy, and Henry Ramos in ST. I think one of Peter and Muncy make the 25 man, and I think that Ramos has a chance to make some feel a little uncomfortable. Joc, Toles, and Ramos are all within one month in age. Ramos is at a huge disadvantage, but he had a wonderful spring last year, and what if he duplicates it?
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The Cardinals had two reserve outfielders that they moved this winter. Piscotty to the A’s for Yairo Munoz (Cards #10), and Max Schrock (Cards #11, and #8 2B prospect per MLB Pipeline). The Cardinals already good farm got two good additions that moved to #10, and #11. Then they traded Grichuk for a reliever who may have found it last year, Dominic Leone, and a RHP who turns 23 in April with a fastball that grades a 70. He has a lot of questions, so he is a lottery pick, but he does have that 70 grade fastball to work with. Plus he slid in as the #23 prospect for the very good Cardinals farm system. If Henry Ramos or Trayce Thompson have a good spring, it could indicate a trade of one of the Dodgers #4 OF. I like the return the Cardinals got for two OF’s they were not going to use.
If the Dodgers cannot trade Kemp before the Season, then they almost have to let him start in LF, provided he is not blind, crippled or crazy (and he may be). That would send Toles and Verdugo to AAA to hone their skills.
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Joc and Matt platoon in LF:
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Here’s what can happen:
1. Kemp cannot cut it and is released;
2. Joc cannot cut it and is sent to AAA;
3. Kemp rakes and you either leave him there or let his value build and trade him then; or
4. Joc rakes and you either anoint him or trade him.
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You still have Verdugo and Toles at the ready. There is no reason to trade any of those players now… UNLESS someone really wants to overpay! I am optimistic about Grandal and Ryu. They are critical cogs. I look for big seasons out of both.
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Yelich would be great – everyone is expecting him to become a superstar. He has a small salary. The Marlins will want the world for him. You will be “buying high.” How smart is that?
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Also, I do not think Chris Taylor will ever play 2B… except in some strange emergency. He is not a good 2B and stats bear it out – 2B is his worst position – he has a .944 fielding % there.
Bumsrap (IMO) is just stirring the pot a bit with some creative trade ideas, nothing wrong with that. I do disagree with Puig being a hazard to the CF’s but whoever plays there does have to take charge early because Puig will go all out to make the spectacular play, nothing wrong with that either.
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I don’t believe the Dodgers are going after starting pitching at this point but can’t rule anything out. I agree with Ron Fairly’s take earlier that Toles and Verdugo start the season in AAA and Joc and Kike or Kemp platoon there. Either Thompson or Kemp will be the odd man out and Thompson is easier to deal but has little value. It may take awhile to see how it all shakes out. Buehler will also start the season in AAA barring injuries or a truly lights out showing in ST. The other real battles will be in the bullpen for the final two spots and who is the final bench player.
Bumsrap, First I very much doubt you will come close to getting any prospects from the Mets for Forsythe and Ryu that Miami would accept in a trade for Yelich. The Dodgers have better prospects then the Mets have so all the players for Yelick will come from the Dodgers.
I disagree with you about Puig, he is the best defensive right fielder in baseball, so including him in a trade for Yelich and placing Verdugo in right field is not going to happen, if anything the Dodgers will trade Verdugo along with other prospects to Miami for Yelich and have Taylor in center and Puig in right which would be an outstanding defensive and offensive outfield.
I haven’t heard anything about Alvarez and his attitude, please let me know where you read that.
The Mets would have zero interest in Forsythe and Ryu. The Mets could always bring back Walker or deal for Harrison or Castro.
At the risk of annoying you, let me summarize what I think you proposed. Trade Forsythe, Ryu, Kemp, Puig, Alvarez, Toles, White, and Grandal for Yelich, a couple of prospects, and a chance to sign Darvish. First, Puig will not be a free agent next year. He has one year of arbitration. His contract only covered 2 years of arbitration. Next, it would then appear that your outfield would be Thompson in LF, Joc in CF, and Verdugo in right. Your trade eliminates the Dodgers #2 and #3 pitching prospects. Your bench would be Kike’, Farmer, Peter, and ? for the other two. I am surprised that you did not include Verdugo and Thompson so as to eliminate any competition for Joc. So we hurt the team offensively, defensively, ML bench, and depth just to let Joc be the Dodgers CF.
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I think a better idea might be to let Joc compete for LF and CF, and if he does not win it, trade him to Miami for Kyle Barraclough, or Ziegler and cash. St. Louis and Toronto just set the market for #4 OF’s. Donnie loves Joc, and he would start for sure in Miami. He would probably hit better in the NL East since there are very few quality LHP other than Gio in that division.
Mets still want an infielder. Forsythe should be of interest to them. Add Ryu to the deal to get player(s) Miami would want.
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Boston still wants a big bat like martinez but might not be able to sign him. Martinez does not want to DH. Kemp probably would be happy at DH. There is still a chance for Kemp going to Boston and nothing going back to LA but partial payroll relief.
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Puig is a free agent after this season. If he does as great as some are saying here, the Dodgers would probably go with Verdugo in RF instead of giving Puig a monster contract. He is not the same attitude challenged person he was when he and Mattingly were together. He would draw fans in Miami. He would love to play CF. Mattingly would only have to live with him one year and should be able to stomach one year. Puig loves Miami. It could happen. Puig, Alvarez, Toles, and White or replace one or two of the the those prospects with players obtained by trading Grandal and or Forsythe for Yelich.
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Sign Darvish with payroll saved with the Kemp, Forsythe, Ryu trade.
Mark, Because the Twins are going to lose Dozier to FA next season getting Fields and Foresyth is not the worst that could be expected. Buxton, considering his ongoing underperformance mirrors that of Peterson and, that both were similarly rated at their entry into the majors, seems an even swap option. Unless Hill is considered overpriced at 16M per year in 2018 and 2019 then the cost for the Twins to assume this expense and acquire a #2 starter seems fair. That leaves Matt Kemp. You’re a fan of keeping him and I favor moving him. The market for early to mid thirties power hitting former all-star outfielders with declining skills seem to be in the range of between 12-16M per year and Kemp’s stats seem to demonstrate that he could help the Twins as a DH and fill-in LF, I’d even also throw in Thompson to give them more defense in the OF. Let’s say the Dodgers have to throw in $7.5 M per year and wouls save 32.5M in 2018
Cardinals made another good trade today. They moved a #4 OF (Randal Grichuk) to pick up a key reliever (Dominic Leone) and a lottery pick pitcher (Conner Greene). Grichuk was being squeezed due to an OF of Ozuna, Pham, and Fowler and with two OF who are in the MLB top 100 and major league ready (Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader).
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Dominic Leone is a 26 year old RHRP who came into his own last year. 70.1 IP, 2.65 ERA,1.05 WHIP, 81 K, and 23 BB.
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Grichuk gets a great opportunity to join an OF with Granderson and Pillar as the other scheduled starters, with only one top OF prospect close to ML ready, Anthony Alford.
The MLB debt service rule is not as hard and fast as some like to make it. Is it a rule? Yes. Are they ways around the rule? Yes. Do some teams get more leeway than others? Yes. When a team is not deemed to be in compliance, MLB is looking for a PLAN to get into compliance. The CBA gives MLB the option of granting 5 year waivers for new owners to get into compliance. That 5 year waiver has come and gone for LAD, and if there was any real concern by MLB, the Dodgers would not have been able to commit $200M for three players last year. Kasten and Manfred have both said there is no concern. All parties have said that LAD is working towards the PLAN that was presented. The Dodgers have an $8.35 billion television contract to counter any debt, and that is very much taken into consideration.
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Baseball teams are subject to a rule that “limits debt to no more than 12 times annual revenue, minus expenses”. The big question is, what represents expenses. The purpose of the rule is to see what Net Operating Income is available to satisfy debt payments. Therefore, expenses should exclude interest, depreciation, amortization, and taxes. This is also referred to EBITDA, Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization. I have no idea if that is how MLB considers “revenues less expenses”, but it is exactly how most lenders look at companies and their debt structure. “What is the amount of revenues less expenses required to meet debt service”. Since the Dodgers have not made a profit since the purchase, it would appear that only zero debt would be in compliance if it considered all revenues and all expenses.
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One other consideration is that the original purchase included Guggenheim Baseball Management, Inc. assumed $412M of McCourt debt. How does that figure into the MLB debt service rule?
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I am sure that the financial statements are subject to audit, therefore the reporting would be compliant with GAAP. Guggenheim Baseball Management, Inc. is not a publically traded entity, so everyone is guessing at what their debt is. Forbes is guessing at $400M. Even if that is the true amount, what is not known is what the terms of that debt are.
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Kasten has always been enamored with building from within, but realized that they needed to make a splash. They dropped below 3M in attendance and lost credibility with the fanbase, thus the need (in their mind) for “The Trade”. The trade had to be approved by MLB, thus ownership was able to convince them that moving payroll to $300M was necessary to rebuild arguably the best franchise in sports. After 2014, Kasten wanted a proven baseball executive who could build a team through the farm system and keep salary under control. Thus the hiring of Andrew Friedman and his hiring of Farhan Zaidi, two top executives who knew how to build from within and within a budget. Yes all teams/entities have budgets. Guggenheim and MLB also recognized that costs of the trade would go away after 2018 and were willing to accept the elevated salaries, even with the $200M committed after 2016.
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Fortunately FAZ was able to manufacture a workaround that finally gets the Dodgers to a salary level under the luxury tax threshold for 2018, and regardless as to who is going to become free agents next year, there will be no 10 year $300M – $500M contracts signed. If they re-sign Kershaw they will not need Keuchel. They would consider Keuchel if Kershaw opts out and moves on, but not at a $200M contract. While Harper would be nice for any lineup, he will not be a Dodger. Machado is a no with Seager. And Donaldson is a no with JT. I do not see the Dodgers going north of the luxury tax of $206M in 2019. But even if they do, the tax will be decreased to 20% rather than 50%.
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I am sure that the Dodgers have shared their vision with MLB that includes major investments in the farm system, international operations, and the physical facilities in Chavez Ravine and Glendale, AZ. MLB obviously was aware that the capital needed to invest in those areas could have been used to reduce debt, but Guggenheim knew they needed to invest heavily up front and worry about the debt later. The Dodgers plan appears to be acceptable to MLB.
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One other consideration is that clubs are allowed to renegotiate debt to ensure that the team revenue is not used to repay that specific debt or use it as collateral. We do not know how much of the original $412M assumed debt falls into that category. One thing I am comfortable with is believing that MLB was undoubtedly more than willing to work with the Dodgers, as most of that McCourt debt would probably have to have been assumed by MLB. The team is more than competitive, and not a lot of salary is needed to upgrade the team. The Kasten plan is coming together, and I am sure MLB is okay with whatever non-compliance may exist. At least for now, and as long as they continue to formulate a plan.
Baseball America says this:
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One of the top pitching prospects in baseball, on his best nights Buehler pitches with three above-average or better pitches. His fastball is a top-of-the-scale monster with good late movement.
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Read more at https://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/expect-walker-buehler/#ZqGKqSh0sop4yxz8.99
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I have watched him and his fastball “explodes.” I don’t know who wrote he had no movement. Now, when he was called up, his fastball looked flat, but I chalk that up to just being nervous.
I believe I expressed reservations about Buehler some months ago, based on my observation last year that his fastball appeared to be straight as an arrow, despite the velocity. That observation was reinforced when I read the following in a Baseball America scouting report. “The one shortcoming of his fastball is it doesn’t have a ton of life, making it easier for hitters to square up when he misses his spot, a problem that was exposed during his September callup in the Dodgers bullpen.” Mind you, they do have a lot of good things to say about Buehler, such as his fastball “jumps on hitters quickly”, and they consider his slider and curveball to both be “plus pitches”. And they do rank him as the Dodgers top prospect.
So while I understand that Buehler is no doubt a legitimate top pitching prospect, I would not be reluctant to include him in a deal, especially if it brought back a player of Yelich’s caliber. Of course, I’ve only seen him a limited number of times, and I trust that Dodgers’ management has a pretty good handle on his overall worth.
How about this trade???
Dodgers: Hill/ 16M, SP; Kemp/ 20M, LF/DH, Forsythe/ 8M, 2B; Peterson/ 5M, CF; and Fields 2M, CL.
Twins: Dozier/ 9M, 2B; Buxton/ 2M/ CF/LF
Dodgers receive $40M in salary relief for 2018. With this money, they could sign Darvish, and be close to $40 mil under the 2019 limit.
Twins have a decent team and plenty of cap room and need to make a move this year. They need at least one SP a late inning reliever, a DH, and replacements for Dozier and Buxton due to trade. This does all of this and would make them a better deeper team.
Rose colored glasses: Beuhler and /or Urias in the rotation any time soon. Stick with what we know: Wood is probably better than either of them will ever be. POTENTIAL again. Bad word like “Hope.” The only problem with Wood, long term, is his health. But Beuhler and Urias are probably in worse shape than he is.
FLASH: The Dodgers will not trade for Yelich as they would be buying high!
Mark,
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This point isn’t accurate, and is well-refuted by the Effectively Wild crew with Jeff Passan (“The Arm.”
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The incentives to get under the luxury tax are not onerous. Most teams can spend much more than they do. Heck, the Pirates have ludicrous cash flow and asset appreciation.
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The incentive to get under the luxury tax is, more likely than not, pure greed.
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https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/category/effectively-wild/
When did the Dodgers sign Darvish and how did I not hear about that and how do they expect to get under the luxury tax limit with Darvish’s contract and why are we talking 2019 and who the hell wants Kemp anyway(nobody) unless Dodgers pay and…aw, never mind.
I understand you are just ‘stirring the pot’ with blockbuster trade proposals but these are huge! I am NOT in favor of moving Wood, he made huge strides and figured out how to keep the ball down with movement. He became a swing and miss pitcher that still gets a lot of ground balls. He has 2 years before becoming a free agent and at $6 M is a bargain this year. All the other guys: Grandal, Joc, Kemp and Maeda can go in the right deal, Ryu too. But I don’t think the Dodgers are after starting pitching, they want to see what Buehler, Urias, Stewart, Santana, White and Font have to offer first and save some serious money. Maybe they move some salary to fit Darvish (Kemp) but not likely with 5 other teams bidding.
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Yelich is a difference maker but the Marlins asking price must be too high. They may want to move Castro as well and don’t need Grandal with Realmuto around. How about Joc, Thompson, Alvaraz and Forsythe for Yelich and Castro? If they want another major league ready pitcher pick one from Stewart, Stripling or Font. If they want another OF we have plenty to choose from that Yelich makes expendable. The Dodgers take on a little salary but upgrade 2 positions.
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The team has been so quiet it seems most likely they go into spring training with the team they have, however they are not prone to leak details out so there could be explosive things going on behind the scenes. I also am not in favor of bringing Utley back and do not want Puig moved-he is worth more to us than anyone else.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/minor-mlb-transactions-11918.html
Too bad the Dodgers don’t own a billion dollars worth of land close bye…
Chemistry is an elusive term but important for a winning team. Trades tend to change chemistry, sometimes for the good and sometimes not. With this many players changing it is always a gamble.
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That being said, I don’t think the trades so far have adversely change the chemistry. It has mostly been a noun era shuffle and restocking after some free agent losses.
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This trade proposal also leaves most of the current players with the addition of known quality players. Grandal will be gone next year – free agent who likely won’t be resigned given our org depth at that position. Wood being replaced by Darvish would likely be a wash from the chemistry perspective. We can’t have both.
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Yelich is a quality player from all perspectives