It’s on Kenta Maeda. Kenta signed an incentive-laden contract with the Dodgers before the 2016 season. It’s a very “team-friendly” contract that pays for performance. I’ll spare you all the details, but the more games Kenta starts and the more innings he pitches earns him some very significant bonuses. That’s how Kenta makes his money and his agent gets a percentage of that money. Do you follow where I am going with this?
Kenta won 16 games in his first year and pitched over 175 innings with a 3.48 ERA. This year has been a little rough but he has pitched every well at times. Nine times, he has pitched 4 or 5 innings this season and on three occasions he has pitched 7 or 8 innings, including last night. Even with Brandon McCarthy on the DL, the Dodgers still have plenty of pitchers and if Kenta does not stay in the rotation it is going to cost him some big time dollars.
I’m sure he is all about winning, but it’s also about the money (isn’t it always?) and his agent gets a slice of that as well. I have not heard that he has complained (except that he was not happy to have to go to the bullpen), but it only stands to reason that he is either going to have to be in the rotation or traded. I think his trade value is pretty high… especially after last night. Whatever his problems were, he seems to have conquered them. So, that begs the question: What should the Dodgers do?
Personally, I do not think they need another arm, especially after Rich Hill’s last outing. I realize there are some health issues on the starting staff, but the Dodgers could easily trade a starter and not miss a beat. Other teams are looking for starters and trading a starter who is doing well before the trade deadline could net a very nice return. That starter would likely be Maeda… or Ryu. My preference is Ryu, although Ryu will not be as appealing as Maeda to most teams. Maeda is also one of the few right-handed starters for the Dodgers so, my preference would be to trade Ryu.
There are a few weeks before this needs to be decided. I’m sure FAZ would like to keep all the starters they can, but I believe it is a potentially explosive situation to leave Maeda in the bullpen. That could cost him millions of dollars and his agent will argue that he bargained in good faith when he signed the incentive-laden deal. Last night, it became clear that Kenta Maeda has to stay in the rotation. How this plays out remains to be seen.
The Dodgers have Scott Barlow, Trevor Oaks and Brock Stewart – any one of them could step into the 5th starter’s role, if needed. Would someone overpay for Ryu? If he can pitch well for the next few weeks, they just might. However, it is true that you can never have too many starting pitchers. Would you trade Ryu or Maeda? If a couple of prospects were included (Calhoun?) could the Dodgers get a Big Power Bat? Stay tuned….
Ryu goes tonight.
By the way, do you really think McCarthy or Maeda would accept an assignment to the DL if they weren’t really hurt? I think not. I also heard that McCarthy was limping noticeably earlier this week. Just my two cents…
Dodger Notes
- Ken Gurnick of Dodgers.com reports Dave Roberts said this about Julio Urias’ surgery: “...all I know is in seeing the [email] thread from Dr. [Neal] ElAttrache, he’s a lot more optimistic than he was when he was first going to do the surgery.” Now we wait-Probably almost two years! The Dodger absolutely will not rush him. There is no need.
- It was good to see Joc Pederson hit a HR without swinging out of his shoes. Now, if Joc can learn to go the other way to drive in a run, like Cody did when he drove in the Dodgers first run last night, he will be very dangerous.
- The play Kike made last night on his knees was my Play of The Year! Wow! He has an arm – that is very hard to do.
- Eric Stephen of TrueBlueLA has a nice draft tracker. Check it out HERE. The Dodgers top 3 picks still have not signed. I have no clue of the status…
- Might as well read THIS MINOR LEAGUE REPORT. No need to duplicate it here. Craig does a nice job.
Discussion (91)
Disagree, not disagreeable
My error, but I’ll say ‘even’ the series..
No fingers should be pointed at anyone… 11-2 and winning as a team… Last night’s bottom of the 9th???
S___ happens…
Kersh on the hill and lets take the series…
Gut wrenching defeat
The throw wasn’t good, but it looked like an experienced 1b would have come off the bag and caught that one. I think Roberts outsmarted himself on that one, could have had Bellenger at first in the nineth inning.
Grandal:
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Hero
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Goat!
Yasmani shut the Angel fans up!
IM SORRY BUT THE FORSYTHE EXPERIMENT IS NOT WORKING
Puig saves Dayton!!
No more Trayce Thompson please. Look at his career numbers including minors
http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=thomps003tra
Nothing here to suggest he’s really a prospect
ROCKIES JUST GOT SWEPT OUT OF CALIFORNIA!!!!
Meanwhile, Colorado just lost again, 5-3 to SF.
8 game losing streak now
Here’s the downside: The team is doing well… why mess with success?
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Let the farm alone.
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Maybe the team has everything they need.
I wonder what the Dodgers could get for Maeda and Ryu along with Verdugo, Calhoun and Alvarez in a three or four way deal?
I’m surprised by the strength of Kike’s arm. Never talked about before. The only “need” is a solid starter who can go 6-7 each start. Can you spell Verlander? Good idea if we could tie him up 2-3 years. I don’t miss all the drama surrounding Urias’ career. He’s been a huge distraction. Deals have been missed. Expectations not materialized. No offense to anyone, but I hope we don’t see him again in a Dodger uniform. The suits finally wised up and drafted college guys.
Thinking out longer range, Maeda could be a link to a better chance at Otani. If the FO thinks that possibility at all, Maeda won’t be going anywhere.
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Maeda’s contract, even with reached incentives, is favorable at the MLB level for the results produced. He occassionally pitches a great game, giving you much more than expected, but lines up well from all measures as 4 or 5. What’s not to like?
When I posited yesterday that Maeda’s contract had to be an issue going forward, I certainly did not mean to imply that FAZ masterminded a phony injury for McCarthy just to get Maeda into the rotation. I believed then, and I still believe that McCarthy does have a tender knee, but I believe that management feels that missing one start or two at the most right now going into the All Star break might help the knee, and give MLB (and Dodgers) a look at Maeda. It was a win-win scenario…rest through the All Star break for McCarthy and a showcase of Maeda. If this were September, I believe that McCarthy would remain in the rotation.
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I am also not advocating that Maeda be moved. He would be a solid #4 in the Dodger rotation. But if FAZ believes that there is a player or players that can make the Dodgers even more formidable, Maeda and his contract could be a very good component of a solid package. The AL has 9 teams within 3.5 games of the Wild Card. It would be very difficult for Oakland, Detroit, or ChiSox to jump over the nine teams, so they are probably the only AL sellers at this time. In two weeks who knows.
It makes a lot of sense – deducing that the Dodgers will wind up trading away a starting pitcher. I am still hoping that Kazmir rehabs to the point where they showcase him and get some interested buyers. Even without Kazmir, they should make room in the rotation for a combination of Brock Stewart, Scott Barlow, and Trevor Oaks. Even if we could get more in return for Maeda, I would still prefer to trade Ryu. With Maeda, there appears to be more upside if they can get him to be more aggressive and trust his stuff AND they are able to keep his workload light enough so his arm doesn’t fatigue. His seven scoreless inning last night indicate that he is making progress on both fronts. Not sure what kind of return we can get for Ryu – maybe a fistful of unknown prospects.
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I really like how they’ve brought Morrow along. For a guy drafted above Kershaw, it’s tough for him to live up to expectations but he’s showing us in spurts that the potential is still there.
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I read an article about Bellinger where he said his dad really doesn’t like how his swing has so much movement and that he uppercuts. Bellinger’s attitude is that if they are going to shift on him, he might as well hit it as hard as he can in the air since the shift will take away hard hits on the ground. Clay Bellinger’s take on his son’s swing makes me smile because his approach is the standard advice given to all young hitters. The coach on my son’s travel ball team says exactly that – take away all excess movement; level the swing plane; let it get deep. This is the right approach for high school ballers. But Cody is from another planet and I think his aggressive approach is infectious. He’s triggered a dinger binge across the whole lineup.
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I am waiting for the next Dodger rookie sensation to jolt the ranks. I think it will be Buehler but it just might be someone less touted who gets promoted rapidly through the system. Like how Bellinger ignited the Dodgers hitters, a hot rookie pitcher can have the same effect on the pitching staff.
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I’ve read several articles on the recent winning streak and they mention something that has been discussed and examined on this blog – that is, in spite of injuries and subpar performances from a handful of key players, the Dodgers are winning consistently. Said another way, FAZ and Roberts are still working to get better in areas that can realistically be improved. This team can still get better. And that’s a scary thought for the rest of the league.
Some good stuff on FanGraphs from a recent Dave Cameron chat.
The first TWO are my favorites:
Matt: Most likely reason the Dodgers do NOT get to the WS: 1) Another frontline SP, 2) A dominant setup guy, or 3) Young bats regressing (Taylor, Bellinger, etc…)
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Dave Cameron: The playoffs are mostly random
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Alex: Can you see the Dodgers working a 3 team trade where they add a SP while flipping one of their many SP to another buyer?
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Dave Cameron: I doubt it would be that complicated. I could see them doing a Ryu for someone better than Ryu deal with less control, like the Cespedes/Lester trade a few years back.
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John: Would it not make more sense for the Dodgers to enter a buyer friendly 1B market (Yonder, Adams, Duda) and keep Bellinger in the OF? Only really competing with the Yankees there (for a 1B)
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Dave Cameron: You just named three LH hitters. I think they’d prefer a RH.
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primantis: I hate how the Dodgers are clearly manipulating the DL. Why aren’t the other teams complaining and getting MLB to disallow it?
12:45
Dave Cameron: Because this is the primary reason the DL was reduced to 10 days to begin with. The Dodgers previously were just doing this by optioning guys to Triple-A after starts; this is less weird than that.
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BB guy: Verdugo has a 17 game hitting streak, Calhoun hit another HR yesterday. What are the Dodgers going to do about promoting them?
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Dave Cameron: They’re going to trade them. They already have too many position players.
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Sean: Why would Maeda, a well-paid, seasoned starter, stand for the quasi-swingman way he’s being used in LA?
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Dave Cameron: “Hey, we’re going to move guys around so that we effectively have a 7 man rotation, and everyone is going to take turns making up injuries or pitching out of the bullpen. This will keep you healthy, hopefully, and you’ll get to pitch in October.”
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Quinn: Re: Maeda: you make a good point, but the way Maeda’s contract is structured means he stands to lose $10 million or more each year he’s not starting; I could see him (or perhaps his agent) requesting a trade if the Dodgers don’t move him back to the rotation eventually.
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Dave Cameron: I would imagine the Dodgers and his representatives have already talked about re-working the incentives.
I agree with putting CT3 at 2b, trading Forsythe, and bringing up Verdugo for LF. Trayce can also platoon with Joc and or Verdugo for the time being.
I also think plenty of starters who I’d be more comfortable with starting a game 2 will be available. Question is, do we trade the Verdugo/Calhoun/Alvarez types or not
I do not think we need to trade for a bullpen pitcher. We have Morrow, Baez’and Jansen for the 7-8-9 innings. Two of these three lefties, Dayton, Avilan and Liberatore. Stewart and Ravin to fill out the bullpen. I would rather have Ravin than Stripling.
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Thompson still looks like a player to me. I know he is a good athlete. If he can hit he will be fine.
It seems to be somebody different each night. Last night is was Maeda, Pederson and defense.
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Morrow looked really good last night. He throws harder than Baez. That surprised me.
I don’t think that anyone better than the Dodgers’ current starters will be available at the Deadline. There may be someone but someone that will be too expensive (cost too much in prospects).
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I don’t trust Ryu’s arm any more. While Maeda is only a so-so pitcher (he had an ERA over 4.00 after April in 2016 – look it up), he is more trustworthy than Ryu is at this point – especially arm health. I would be reluctant to trade Maeda over Ryu but the Dodgers will have much more difficulty trading Ryu.
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I like the idea of trading Forysthe and moving Taylor to 2B. Kike remains the Swiss Army Knife who plays everywhere, and the Dodgers grab a right-handed banger to play OF and a set-up option to go with Baez in the 7th or 8th, preferably a lefty.
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Agree with Rudy about Hill – I’m not sold after 1 good start in 10.
Best line-up
Best weblog name
Top 2 dashboard and IQ (maybe 1….I can’t tell)
Most player credit….accurately given
Most on topic commenting
Best adult fans…tightest ship.
Most bases covered
Best remodel/most improved
….thx
“Maybe it knocked some sense into me, I don’t know,” Pederson joked of the collision. But he also noted that while on a brief rehab assignment, hitting instructor Shawn Wooten spotted a flaw and the result is a better swing.
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“He definitely found something in my swing that I was doing last year and wasn’t doing this year, and it’s definitely paying off,” said Pederson. “It sort of clicked right away and things have been going well with it. Just getting back to something I wasn’t doing before, I was hitting a lot of balls really hard on the ground and he showed me something I wasn’t doing that was causing it.”
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Joc was in 11th place in entire MLB in average exit velocity when he went on the DL. His OPS is already back over .800. He finished last year with a full year OPS over .800 and after the all star game it was over .900.
How about Ryu/Maeda, Calhoun and Logan F (perhaps Dickson also) for Schoop. Would Balt. even consider that?
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Something that I have noticed is the number of foul balls on two strike counts. It seems to me to be unusually high this year. Does anyone see this or am I having hallucinations ? I hate it when opponents keep fouling off pitches and run the pitch count up.
If the Dodgers want to pick up an impact player through a trade, Maeda is the only one with enough value to bargain with. Still, most of the sellers out there probably would want more in the way of prospects for a rebuild and might not be too keen on a Japanese expat in his late 20s with some question marks concerning his medicals.
I don’t think there are really any impact bats available who aren’t going to cost a fortune (forget about Ozuna), and Pederson and Puig both are looking better. Maybe the likely scenario is the Dodgers pick up another bullpen arm. I’d love for the FO to pick up Felipe Rivero from the Pirates, but he’s quickly turned into one of the best relievers in the game and he’s under team control for a while, so even sellers like the PIrates probably won’t part with him. Maybe Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox. Both of these teams want parts for a rebuild, not aging veterans.
Everybody see this?
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http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/19754861/cubs-c-miguel-montero-calls-jake-arrieta-nats-7-stolen-bases
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Looks like trouble in paradise as the finger pointing begins!
As much as I would like to see Cody in the derby I cringe at the thought of it effecting his performance afterwards. Joc has finally made adjustments and they are working. If he starts taking pitches the other way ala A-Gon or what Cody did last night he becomes that much more valuable. I don’t think we should/will trade Forsythe. Unless we do make a trade for a bat in left both Taylor and Forsythe will be the primary starters by the end of the season with Kike being the super sub and Thompson being the 4th outfielder.
I think a starter is at the top of the list.
Archer or Quintana, who’s valu may b down
I see Verdugo extended his hit streak to 17 games at that “Minor League Report” link you posted. Talk about pounding on the MLB door! Should FAZ let him in? Taylor at 2nd and Verdugo in left could be very nice.
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Very nice play by Kiki last night. I guess FAZ knew what they were doing playing him at SS instead of Taylor. Also nice catch by Thompson in right, maybe he is ready to replace Gutierrez permanently . I guess it is too much to hope for, that Thompson will be that right handed masher we all want. But I can dream!
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2017 year of the youngsters!
Most teams would love to have the pitching problems the Blue…
There are really good young players and then there is Cody B.!!!
Watching him hit to the opposite field last night brought my old arse out of the easy chair… What we have in Cody is something very special…
Sure makes a lot of sense that being deadline sellers would be the next step in the FAZ plan.
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Ryu, Maeda even McCarthy might go in my opinion. Kazmir would be FAZ’s wet dream, but unfortunately aint going to happen, unless he is attached to something good. Kind of like the Lakers did with Mozgov going with D’Angelo Russell. Don’t see many of those kind of moves in baseball, but why not?
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How about Dodgers being 2nd base sellers also. With Utley, Taylor and Hernandez could Forsythe be flipped to someone like the Red Sox?
I don’t know Mark, Brandon McCarty had the yips during his last outing. Management is trying to save face with him. He may have had some knee sortness, however if he is throwing the ball over the plate, he’s not on the DL today. You and the Dodgers can try to sugarcoat this but we all saw what happened and it’s not fake news. I was encouraged by Hills last outing after he finally dialed in his pitches. Maeda looked better last night as well. I would hate for the Dodgers not to look for another starter that can help them in the playoffs when we are this close to winning a Championship. (Maybe there isn’t one). I am hoping for someone more seasoned in the playoffs. Just my take…………………………
That was a some strong throw Kike made from his knees…and a nice pick by Bellinger (he really has a great glove).
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I would trade Ryu over Maeda. Good contract, right-handed = extra brownie points for Kenta.
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Joc just needs to stay within himself…participating in that home-run derby a few years back was a huge mistake.
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Need to see a couple more good outings from Hill before I jump completely on board.