DISCLAIMER: I‘m writing this very slowly for those of you who are not stupid, but just have bad luck when it comes to thinking. For the ones who just have an irrational hatred of Andrew Friedman, I suggest that you seek professional help. I can’t help you.
Why AJ Pollock?
First of all, I was not someone who really wanted AJ Pollock. He was way down on my list. but was way above Bryce Harper. AJ Pollock was signed just to be a piece for the 2019 Dodgers, not a solution. Actually, in retrospect, he made perfect sense: a RH bat for a LH heavy lineup, a great athlete and a good guy in the clubhouse.
Yes, he has an injury history, but the Dodgers have him for 4 or 5 years and the odds are he will produce during some of that time. Maybe he misses the rest of this season… or not. They are better with him, but are fine without him. Odds are, he will be back for the playoff push.
Because they are still LH heavy, Friedman will be looking for another RH hitter who can play in the outfield, but it’s not an absolute necessity. To those of you who wonder why I like Nick Castellanos, I say “Watch and learn.” I have “vision” while some of you just have “sight.” Some of you just look at the “Flavor of the Week” who is the guy who is doing great at some point in time… most likely now. I look for that guy BEFORE he becomes that guy. Now, I realize that Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings may hurt his chances with being traded to the Dodgers… so there is that.
However, some fans think Andrew Friedman should have signed Bryce Harper or Manny Machado to a deal that is about three times what AJ Pollock makes, I have this to say to them:
I am not sure that Andrew Friedman will ever give out a contract like Bryce Harper or Manny Machado signed… and I am extremely happy about that. I think he will try and re-sign players like Bellinger and Seager but I can’t see him breaking the bank for someone like Manny who is simply not worth the cost. Machado is hitting .235 and OPS’ing .709. AJ Preller would have been much better off saving that money for a pitcher or actually, several pitchers. That deal will come back to haunt him as Manny will never (NEVER) approach the numbers he had in that bandbox in Baltimore.
Bryce Harper is hitting .231 with the Phillies. Their owner said that were going to spend “stupid money” and he was correct. Bryce Harper will have his moments, but I don’t think he’s anything special. Historically speaking, giving out big deals (I call over $120 million a big deal) is the wrong way to build a team. The right way is with young players. Friedman is doing that with Gray and Downs, both of whom have a legitimate shot at being pretty good players. Someone said they wanted Trevor Bauer. The fact that Cleveland did not trade him tells you what they wanted. It would start with Verdugo, May and Ruiz and that might not be all. I like Bauer, but no way Friedman is giving up a heist like that.
In AJ Pollock, I think Friedman got exactly what he wanted: A manageable AAV for 4 or 5 years for a player who will be injured at times and very good at other times. With the Dodgers breadth and depth and the fact that Verdugo looks like a star in the making, he is not vital. He also replaced clubhouse problems with clubhouse character. Character counts a lot with these Dodgers and they stress it throughout their system.
So, while I think Castellanos might be a steal (he’s playing on a bad team and has sought a trade, so he’s not motivated like he might normally be), it’s more likely that Friedman will look to trade some LH bats that are blocked like Toles, Rios an/or Beatty, for a younger “projectable” RH bat. He likes to get that guy before he become THAT guy. To pay for a Free Agent who is in his late 20’s or early 30’s AFTER he has become that guy is insanity and seldom the path to success.
The JD Martinez signing by Boston for $105 million was a much better all around move. Dombrowski had a number and Martinez had to take it. Sometimes, you just have to be a little lucky as well. JD was a big part of why they won the World Series. You watch: San Diego and Philly will soon regret the deals to Machado and Harper. Those were the “panic” moves. As your youngsters mature and maybe become stars, you can’t sign them all because you have Old Man Manny or Bryce rolling around in their wheelchairs collecting $35 million a year while your own home-grown Free Agents are walking.
I have hopes that CT3 will turn his ship around and at least be what he was last year, but let’s say he doesn’t. Verdugo has shown he can hit lefties, so have Bellinger and Max Muncy. Pollock was hitting .333 against lefties, even with his slow start. To those of you who think Joc should hit against LH Pitchers, he has been given a few opportunities and is 2-14 this year, after going 9 for 53 last year.
CT3 hit .297 against LHP in 2017, but dropped to .232 in 2018. He is at .212 this year. They have to keep rolling him out there against LHP now that Pollock is out for an extended period. They need a RH bat to go with Joc. If CT3 can’t be that guy, the the Dodgers need to find that guy. How about Evan Gattis – he remains unsigned and might be a nice platoon partner to Joc… in case CT3 doesn’t get his mojo back?
Minor League Report by DC
Great Lakes Loons 6 – Beloit Snappers 5 (Oakland)
The Loons came into the Thursday afternoon contest on a modest five-game winning streak looking for number six against the Snappers. They managed a 6-5 win and a three-game sweep of Beloit. It was a bit of an unorthodox win as the Loons scored six runs on five hits. A Hunter Feduccia double was their only extra base hit. The unorthodox part came on seven walks, five stolen bases and some gifts from The Snappers in the form of five wild pitches, a hit batter and two errors. The winning run came across in the bottom of the eighth inning without a base hit. The Loons have walked 152 times in 26 games and now lead the league with an OBP of .356.
On the mound Jeronimo Castro started and did not have his best outing of the year. He gave up four earned runs on five hits and two walks in 4.2 innings pitched. He did record seven strikeouts. He was followed by Alfredo Tavarez who went 2.1 innings and allowed one run in 2.1 innings. That run in the top of the eighth inning brought the Snappers even with the Loons at five. Joel Inoa finished up with two innings in which he gave up one hit, no walks and struck out two.
At the end of the day the Loons had moved within one game of the division leading Bowling Green Hot Rods.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 5 – Lake Elsinore Storm 6 ( San Diego)
The Quakes carried a 5-3 lead into the top of the eighth inning but gave up three in that inning to fall 6-5 to the Storm. They still hold a three-game lead over the Inland Empire 66ers.
None of the three pitchers for the Quakes could shut down Lake Elsinore. Starter Bryan Warzek gave up three runs in four innings, Kevin Malisheski gave up three in 3.1 innings and Jordan Sheffield took the loss and registered a blown save. They did strike out 10 but also issued seven free passes.
The Quakes did score five runs on five hits. The big blow was a three-run home run by Brandon Montgomery in the seventh inning. Carlos Rincon continued a bit of a surge with two hits, one a double, and now has hit safely in his last four games bringing his batting average up from .194 to .225.
Tulsa Drillers 6 – Midland RockHounds 1 (Oakland)
Starter J.D. Martin had by far his best outing of the year with seven shutout innings on two hits and one walk while striking out seven. Marshall Kasowski followed with a scoreless inning striking out three and walking one. Nolan Long did give up a run in his lone inning. Together they struck out 12 and walked three. The RockHounds were limited to three hits.
The Drillers started quickly with four runs in the bottom of the first inning on a DJ Peters ground out, a Chris Parmalee double and Cody Thomas single. They tacked on two more runs in the third inning on a Christian Santana double and Josh Thole single. Parmalee, Thomas and Thole each had two hits with Thomas driving in his team leading 19th run.
The Drillers are on a five-game winning streak and now are two games back of division leading Arkansas.
OKC Dodgers 4 – Round Rock Express 10 (Houston)
Right-handers Michael Bowden and returnee Logan Bawcom both made their season debuts with the Dodgers. Bowden tossed three innings of one-hit ball while striking out three. Bawcom also pitched three innings giving up two runs on three hits and striking out four. Louis Head followed Bawcom and gave up two runs in his two innings allowing Round Rock to tie the score at four. The game went into an extra inning and, as they say, the wheels came off. Right-hander Jaime Shultz surrendered six runs on five hits and two walks.
At the plate the Dodgers did have nine hits with Kyle Garlick posting a double and a triple. Cameron Perkins had three hits including a double and two runs batted in.
The Dodgers have fallen to eight games back of Round Rock and currently sit at 8-18.
Discussion (67)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The long range Dodger future will greatly depend on their ability to extend Seager and Bellinger. Otherwise they have plenty of young and controllable players in Lux, Buehler, Urias, May, Verdugo, Smith, Ruiz, and others. I would lock up Joc for a couple of extra years as well.
Taylor has looked better this last week but he needs to back off from that big swing.
The Madres will be a team to reckon with in the NLW.. That being said, they will surely be a perennial 2nd plc team with bonafide WC possibilities……
The game of baseball will drive you completely nutso!!! I attended 5 ST games after St. Patty’s day and JT just tore up pitchers and now!??! Go figure..
As I often say he will wake up from this slump and opposing pitchers will pay dearly…
Do you think CT3 reads LADT???
It is just 4th inning but I had never seen padres overpower dodgers like this before
Many of us have written about the bright future of the Padres. I have stated quite often that the Dodgers’ window is closing because of the Padres. Mark has advised us not to worry because AJ Preller will blow it. This is the same AJ Preller who traded James Shields to the ChiSox for Fernando Tatis Jr., and Fernando Rodney to Miami for Chris Paddack. Both Tatis Jr. and Paddack are with the big club and in the early discussion for NL ROY. Not a bad return for a GM who is going to blow it.
I do like tonight’s lineup.
Doc is giving peace a chance,
Doc is showing confidence in Joc and CT3 – sometimes that’s a big deal.
I think many of you forget how good CT3 was in 2017… and while he wasn’t as good in 2018, he was still way above average. I have to call out Bumsrap, who has stuck with Joc through thick and thin, but said he had given up on CT3, after 1/10 of the struggles Joc has been through. WHAT?
In the Spring of 2018, MLB ranked CT3 as the 5th best Centerfielder in baseball! Do you all forget that?
Congratulations on the lineup Doc:
1. Enrique Hernandez (R) 2B
2. Cody Bellinger (L) 1B
3. Justin Turner (R) 3B
4. Corey Seager (L) SS
5. Chris Taylor (R) CF
6. Alex Verdugo (L) RF
7. Austin Barnes (R) C
8. Joc Pederson (L) LF
9. Clayton Kershaw (L) P
1. Ian Kinsler (R) 2B
2. Franmil Reyes (R) RF
3. Manny Machado (R) SS
4. Hunter Renfroe (R) LF
5. Eric Hosmer (L) 1B
6. Ty France (R) 3B
7. Wil Myers (R) CF
8. Austin Hedges (R) C
9. Eric Lauer (R) P
I was at lunch today and the restaurant was showing the Cubs and Cardinals game. Was impressed by Kyle Hendricks who pitched a complete game. Not saying we should get him but he was good.
And Mark no way AF is trading May. He’s the next rookie of the year candidate in 2021!
In response to 59 assertion that the Dodgers could have won maybe 2 WS’s with a better manager. Hogwash. It wasn’t Robert’s who gave up the homer in the 9th inning of game 2 in 17. Jansen closes that out we’re up 2-0 and win the series. Roberts didn’t pitch game 5 and we score 10 runs and lose with the best pitcher of his generation. The pitcher for dame3 was Yu Darvish not Dave Roberts. Players win championships not managers! And Roberts was phenomenal last year holding the Ball club together after a 16-26 start! Stop whining about Roberts!
I think that the Dodgers have to ride with Taylor until June and then if he still isn’t hitting he will have to go to AAA for the rest of the year. Hopefully, it doesn’t come to that, but he is royally screwed up now.
Logan Forsythe is hitting.275 with a .372 OB%. Some guys just can’t play in LA, I guess.
OK, how about this guy? Hunter Pence. He’s doing well in a part-time role for Texas.
On the other hand, how about just changing the narrative? Trade Pederson, Muncy, May, Gonsolin and Taylor (3 or 4-way deal) for a stud Leftfielder. Ours all have warts.
Dodgers Digest on why Taylor isn’t hitting:
“Of players with 80 or more plate appearances so far this season, Taylor’s 39 wRC+ is 11th-worst in baseball. He has a -0.4 WAR, thanks in part to being a solid defender at every position he plays. But the offense is the big problem here.
You might think it’s strikeouts, but his K-rate is actually down 3 points from last season. He’s walking a little more, but the real issue is contained in the batted ball and plate discipline numbers.
Taylor is sporting a paltry .212 BABIP. That’s bad. It isn’t as bad as Joc Pederson‘s .194, but Joc has 10 dingers and is one of the more productive overall hitters on the team. Taylor also has seen his ground ball rate spike to 50.9 percent after settling at 33.6 percent last season. His line drive rate is down to just 15.1 percent and his hard-hit percentage is down almost 18 percent from last season. The big takeaway here is he’s not hitting the ball hard and he’s not hitting the ball in the air — two staples for him over the last couple seasons.
As far as plate discipline goes, it supports some of these struggles. Taylor has chased pitches at an increased clip of 2 percent, which has actually led to an increase in contact on pitches outside the zone. But since pitches outside the zone don’t foster as much good contact, that could help explain the decrease in the hard-hit rate. He’s also swinging at more pitches in the strike zone (up 4 percent), but not making as much contact when he does (down 5.5 percent). Overall, his contact rate is down about 3 points and his swinging strike rate has jumped by 2 points, but it hasn’t negatively impacted his strikeout rate.”
Only posting as Kluber was in off season conversation.
This isn’t a reason not to have pursued him, but it is another illustration why depth is important
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/05/corey-kluber-indians-fractured-forearm-ulna-comebacker.html
I’ve been reading this blog since before Andrew Friedman was hired in LA and I remember distinctly that Mark was extremely upset with the excessive spending during the beginning of the Guggenheim era. The Dodgers had just come out of the embarrassing and humiliating McCourt divorce disclosures where it came to light how much Frank and Jaime lived excessively at the expense of investing in a winner. Mark Walters and the new owners wanted to make a statement to wipe out that old narrative and they gave Coletti a blank check.
I bring this up because if Mark was just a Dodgers “homer” he would have defended the big purchasing and large contracts. However, he consistently cried foul and warned there would be a day of reckoning for contracts like Carl Crawford, AGON, etc. He railed against large long term contracts to aging veterans BEFORE the Dodgers hired AF.
Just because Mark agrees with the way AF runs the team does not make him a Dodgers “homer” or an Andrew Friedman “homer.” He made his opinions clear before AF and before the Dodgers started operating like this.
Regarding some of the “missed opportunities” to trade for right handed hitting… I seriously doubt the Mariners were ever going to trade away Hanniger in a fire sale. He would have cost the Dodgers at least a current young (cost controlled) stud on their MLB roster PLUS one or more top rated prospects.
Regarding Realmuto – remember the Marlins said any discussion of a trade with the Dodgers for Realmuto would START with Bellinger. Are any of you seriously upset AF walked from those trade negotiations? Even if the Marlins were just posturing with the Bellinger statement, how much talent would the Dodgers need to concede so that the Marlins could save face after making such an outlandish opening trade demand? In my mind, the Marlins were giving the Dodgers the middle finger when they insisted on a trade package STARTING with Bellinger for Realmuto, a .270 hitter.
What would you give up for a player currently hitting, .356, 1.182 that is a RH power bat and can play 2nd base? Assuming the Nats continue to tank, what is Anthony Rendon worth in terms of prospects as a rental? Guy is an absolute stud.
Pederson L
Turner R
Bellinger L
Rendon R
Seager L
Pollack R (if healthy)
Muncy L
Barnes R
It seems like Pollock will be out until after the July deadline and Taylor may not rediscover his hitting talents any time soon, so if AF is going to get a right handed hitting outfielder to platoon with Joc he needs to do it now and not at the deadline.
I’m guessing it won’t be a big time name. It may be someone who is about is obscure as Taylor and Muncy were when they arrived, but I’m betting he does something to bring someone in by the end of this month. Taylor, Muncy – can lightening strike three times?
1 – Pollock is a very good to elite player when healthy. He has rarely been healthy however. For those who say he has no power, I would remind them in only 413 AB last year he hit 21 HR and slugged .484. He is a very good CF who was the best hitter on the D-Backs when he got hurt last May. He didn’t hit well for several months when he came back. In his 1 healthy season, he hit .315/ .367/ .498 /.865 with 20 HR and 39 SB.
2 – Those who said that Pollock isn’t hurt but sick don’t understand his injury. Surgical hardware, once implanted, can become infected. When that happens it is usually removed. I expect that to happen here and for Pollock to be out for quite a while. This is part of his injury in 2016.
3 – The Dodgers don’t win against lefties. Part of the problem is that Pollock hasn’t gotten going yet (I think he was playing hurt), Turner hasn’t gotten going yet, and part is the same thing that happened last year – with all of the Dodgers’ platooning, Pederson and Muncy don’t usually play against LHP and the right-handed part of the platoon isn’t as good.
4 – The Dodgers wouldn’t be talking about needing another RHH if Taylor could hit, but he can’t. Freese should pinch hit and play sparingly at 1B.
5 – The Dodgers have platooned more than they said that they would. Is anyone surprised?
6 – There was no way that this Dodger Braintrust was ever going to sign Machado or Harper for a long term deal. After moving Kemp, Wood and Puig I thought that there might be a chance that they would sign Harper, but I should have realized that this would not happen. If Seager comes back to his pre-injury self, they didn’t need Machado. (He was never that good in LA and frankly I don’t know that the Dodgers need his attitude anyway.) Harper is another LHH – not a really good fit.
7 – No to Castellanos. He is as bad a defender as any player in baseball at multiple positions. Same to Evan Gattis. There will be better choices available at the deadline.
8 – There was an interesting post in The Athletic this morning and one of the subjects was Cory Seager.
“Five weeks and 130 plate appearances into 2019, Corey Seager is hitting .228 and slugging .351.
He has particularly struggled against left-handed pitching, and so the last two days against the Giants did not go great for him. What is wrong with his swing, he said, is making him especially susceptible to left-handed pitching.
Because Seager is striking out at the same rate he did in 2017 and walking slightly more, it is probably too early to be worried about the lack of power. The difference is in the batted-ball data: He is hitting one-third fewer line drives, and hitting balls to the opposite field when he used to pull them.”
My observation is that Seager is swinging with his arm and isn’t turning his hips and getting his lower body into his swing. This explains the lack of power and his failure to pull the ball. I think that he is still bothered by his hip. I wonder if he will get it back?
Wow Mark, for a guy with vision you’re pretty short sighted when it comes to non-Dodgers…Homer.
I guess you felt that using BA instead of OPS for Harper would help you prove your delusional point that he ins’t good.
Casty, a guy you claimed to have “vision” about is doing worse than Harper this year. Casty’s best year is only slightly better than this year’s Harper with worse defense.
Evin Gattis will never be a platoon partner with Joc because of his crappy defense. I’m sure you can “See” that with the excellent “Vision” you claim to have.
I think you worked yourself up to a point where you’re losing your noodles.
You say “To pay for a Free Agent who is in his late 20’s or early 30’s AFTER he has become that guy is insanity and seldom the path to success” Then your very next sentence is about JDM who signed as a free agent ahead of his 30 yo season. Here’s some notable free agents that worked out just fine.
Vlad Guererro – age 29
Nolan Rayn – age 33
Dave Henderson – age 29
Roger Clemens – age 34
Matt Holliday – age 29
There’s tons more.
You’ve been telling us all year to be patient and you throw Bryce and Manny under the bus for not starting well according to you. What about Seager? Does he suck now? Are you gonna give up on him?
Bryce and Manny both improved the clubs they went to and sold a boat load of tickets. Padres are SOLD OUT for the next three games against the Dodgers. They probably haven’t SOLD OUT a series in years. Guess what? They’re also right behind us in the standings.
You can try to convince people that AF is awesome for not signing big name guys, but he tried. So, that is a “DUMB ASS” argument fitting for the graphic you posted apparently about yourself! He didn’t get the right guy yet, but that doesn’t mean he never will. Just like he will never spend on a bullpen arm until he did. Just like he won’t go over the CBT until he does.
AF is awesome because he’s smart enough to not do stupid things. But, he’s going to have that cloud over his head until he wins a WS. You can argue all these other things until you’re blue in the face, but he needs to be like Dell Taco and Go Bold to get them over the top! He did it last year with Machado, but it didn’t work out because of many things including Dumb Doc, who you constantly defend.
Hell, he might have 2 WS if he was smarter about hiring his manager.
Managing risk is very smart for long term goals, but sometimes you have to be a little stupid and a little reckless to achieve the highest results in the short term. You love to point to the Cubs, but they won a WS recently.
So, if you want to be the 90’s Braves and go to the postseason 14 out of 15 years and only have 1 WS to show for it, then what were doing is perfect for you. If you expect more, be more objective.
I think Castellanos is the guy at the trade deadline to pair with Joc in left depending how Joc and Verdugo perform and if Pollock can come back. AF has shown he’s willing to go for a big move at the deadline. Time to put the Pads in their place this weekend starting with Kersh who had the best odds at winning the CY award after one month According to betonline in a Houston Mitchell article today! My son and I are going down with the Pantone 294 group on Saturday. Can’t wait!
Maybe Bums should take a closer look at DHLM’s stats for hitting and compare them to AJ’s, then realize that he is also a GGer and comes at half of what Manny went for and has an overall BA that is better. The factor, once again, that the FO was mesmerized by was the POWER that they thought Pollock would bring. They love the HR. Compare the slash lines.
I was replying to Bums when the comments closed on the last thread:
Realmuto was not necessary with Smith and Ruiz and Cartaya in the pipeline, and the Marlins seemed to want to make up for getting fleeced in the Yelich deal. Haniger would have taken the sun and the moon in a trade and Machado was always going to be a rental because well Cory Seager. One thing I like about AJ is he really wanted to be here and he will likely produce numbers to justify his contract over time, plus a true pro and clubhouse plus. Him going down opens the door for Alex and I don’t think he gives the job back. You don’t want to hear this but I think he takes the LF job from the Joc/CT3 platoon at some point after AJ returns.
Responding to your post today: Evan Gattis? That guy is a butcher in LF, way below average and the ball always seems to find him. He is really just a DH at this point. Casty might not take a ton in a trade in his final contract year but do they sign him long term and at what cost? I like the thinking though, get a lefty masher to pair with Joc but Alex is going to be young, good and cheap for a long time to come.
Gattis ?? That big White bear cant play any defense. What about bringing back The Bison at Deadline , LA is paying him anyhow or not??? What about signing Kimbrel ?