The Beginning of the End

Regarding fewer minor league teams;

A few days ago someone linked an article describing how MLB organizations are starting to value training their minor leaguers together in larger group settings rather than separate into remote teams all over the country. That way more players will receive direct coaching from the best coaches/trainers in one place, such as Camelback Ranch.

European soccer teams do this, and the Astros have already started doing it. In fact, the Astros already dropped two minor league affiliates. The training they receive directly from excellent coaches in one location is better than from some minor league instructor in Utah or Maine. The players actually progress better when they receive elite training at a development facility than they do from minor league instructors. They don’t waste time playing meaningless minor league games against inferior players, almost all of whom will never get close to the Majors.

So, the idea is to focus on quickly and efficiently getting your best players major-league-ready. It makes sense to focus on the best talent. Fewer players will play minor league ball, but the entire reason for minor league existence is to benefit the major league team.

The independent minor leagues will still get scouted. You never know when you’ll find the next Andy Dominique, Mike Piazza (62nd round), or Orlando Hudson (43rd round).

One FA reliever that I would hope AF would consider is Drew Pomeranz. When he went into the bullpen for Milwaukee he was very good. He cannot start, but he took to relief very well. In 28 relief appearances last year (28.2 IP), his numbers were .165/.226/.278/.505. His ERA was 1.88 and his WHIP was 0.837.

Dodgerrick mentioned throwing hard as a metric to be considered for relief. I will say again that the Dodgers should look at Michael Lorenzen. He is a Southern California kid and touches 100. He could also double as a RH bat off the bench.

The Dodgers could do worse than acquire both Pomeranz (LHRP) and Lorenzen (RHRP).

With Doc as the manager, I have a hard time believing the Dodgers will win a championship even if AF stacks the team with elite players which he won’t and I don’t expect him to.

Doc doesn’t identify reverse splits. Doc starts Pollock against both RHP and LHP even though Pollock was struggling against RHP all season long. Doc puts Kershaw in game 5 even though Kershaw’s season ERA in first inning pitched was 7.45 and first 15 pitches was 6.94. Doc puts Joe wild man Kelly in game 5 with the game on the line. I can go on and on.

Doc is the problem.

Before moving any player with a large contract, the Dodgers have about $40MM to spend. AF has never been in this position before, so nobody can say that this is not the AF way. The ownership group has said that they want to stay near the CBT (a little over or a little under). I can see AF spending on one high cost dope fiend contract. I stated last week that if I were AF I would not be outbid for Gerrit Cole. The problem is that Arte Moreno is not going to go down without a huge fight. He has never been shy about spending and with the Trout contract he is not going to let a pitcher from his back yard go without a huge offer that will undoubtedly test even the most aggressive front office. Cole is a Boras client so he is going to wait forever to get the last dollar he can get. Boras is going to get NYY and LAA bidding against each other. If Cole wants to be a Dodger, AF will make a serious bid. But if Cole wants to surpass Scherzer and Price, I would agree that AF is not going to get into that auction. We fans may want him to, but AF leaves his emotions at home and nowhere near his office.

I was all in on Zach Wheeler in the 2018 deadline, and I still see him as a quality starting pitcher. The problem is that he is from Dallas and Texas needs starting pitching and is willing to pay. They could use a high level FA pitcher for their new stadium. If Houston loses Cole, they will still have the dollars for Zach. I also believe that Rick Porcello is a good option to get the Brent Strom treatment. Houston is also going to get Lance McCullers back for next year. I absolutely believe the Astros will be a serious contender again in 2020.

If Strasburg opts out (very good chance), San Diego will be all over him. He is from San Diego and went to San Diego State. He would be the big name pitcher they are looking for. This is the perfect opportunity for Stras to opt and go where he wants to.

Jake Odorizzi is a quality starter, but not at the elite level. He is no more than a #3. He loved pitching in Minnesota and Minnesota says they will pay for pitching this winter. He is a likely candidate to be re-signed by Minnesota.

While I think it would be a coup to get MadBum at a reasonable deal, I see no way that MadBum would ever wear Dodger Blue, and while I do believe that AF would relinquish a draft pick for the right FA, I do not believe he would for MadBum. I see MadBum in the Atlanta rotation next year, making them even better.

So if the Dodgers are going to get a co-Ace to go with Buehler it is either going to need to come from within, or via a trade. I still like Corey Kluber for one year, and I do not believe that it will take a king’s ransom of prospects to get it done. Ross Stripling would be a good place to start. One year of Kluber allows the “kids” to develop at a less frenetic pace. One other option that is plausible is that Boras will oversell Ryu and not get what he wants for Ryu, and Ryu could come back to LAD on fair terms in both length and dollars. I think AF waits to see what develops with the Ryu market.

After watching the two LCS, I am convinced that there is no reliever that is a lock, and that good hitting can beat them. Anthony Rendon seems like the logical candidate as he fits the Dodgers plan for a shorter term higher AAV contract with no deferred money. Washington will not lose both Strasburg and Rendon. So I can see them offering Rendon a contract to stay. Rendon is also a Boras client, so he is going to let teams outbid each other, and that is not a game that AF plays.

I do believe that AF will call Boston and try to work something out for Mookie Betts for one year. But he will not be snookered. Gavin Lux and Dustin May will not get traded for one year of Mookie Betts. If he does work something out, it will hurt, and it will involve names that many here will complain about.

By the way, Mark can pontificate all he wants about how DJLM would not hit in LA. There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that that is true. I can say that DJLM would hit .340 with a .950 OPS in LA and I would be just as correct as Mark saying he couldn’t. We will never know because IMO, the biggest mistake AF made last year was not signing DJLM. Instead he signed AJ Pollock for more money and more years.

Good takes today from Mark and AC on what the Dodgers should or should not do. Thanks,

AC….what do you think of the proposed plan to restructure the minor league system? It seems to me there needs to be improvements on some facilities, travel and hotel accommodations and especially salary and if some of the players are making below minimum wage, it needs to be rectified. Do you think by eliminating teams is the answer? And, also how bad, if you know, is this the situation with the Dodger’s minor league teams?

I have only been to a few minor league parks to watch games, Raley Field in Sacramento and one in Salt Lake City. Both park facilities were first class but others may not be.

After watching ALDS Game 6, it is becoming increasingly clear that relief pitching is no longer an art. It is more of a mess now than it has ever been in the years I have been following baseball. There is not one reliever out there, FA or otherwise that I believe is the answer. I would not pay $10MM + for any of the FA pitchers including Will Smith. I might give Dellin Betances an incentive laden one year contract that will allow him to prove himself for another FA run in 2021. I would not offer any difference maker with multiple years of team control even for Aaron Bummer. If I was AF I would offer Joc, Edwin Rios, and maybe a lottery pick pitcher for him, but there is no way I would offer Strip in that trade. I might trade for Ken Giles, but I would not include any top ten prospects. Maybe 2 from the 20-30 range, and an unknown lottery pick.

I have been saying for the last several years that the Dodgers have continually ignored the bullpen, and I still believe that. But the bullpen was setup to win Game 5 until Doc thought he was smarter than the game that we were all watching. You cannot say that you have a championship bullpen on one side of your mouth and then say you are okay with how the 8th and 10th innings worked out in Game 5. If it is a championship bullpen, then let them show it.

Mark brought up Mariano Rivera yesterday, indicating even he had a bad year. I am assuming he was referring to his rookie year. But Mariano started more games than he relieved in 1995. He did not become a full time reliever until 1996. From 1996-2013 (18 years) he had a 2.03 ERA and 0.972 and averaged 41 saves. His worst year in that group was in 2007 (at age 37), he had a 3.15 ERA and 1.121 WHIP, with 30 saves and 4 blown saves. In 2013 (his final year at 43), he had 44 saves. Mariano stands alone. Maybe it is time to sit down with Tony Gonsolin and ask him to take the Mariano route. Mariano was 25 in his rookie year, same age as Tony. It is time for Caleb Ferguson to realize that he is not going to get that third pitch and look more to become an Andrew Miller. Maybe it is time for AF to rip up Maeda’s contract , and give him more in guaranteed dollars to work permanently from the bullpen. Maybe he can become a closer. Maybe not. Maybe KJ turns it around in 2020, but he is going to need to adapt to his decreasing velocity and movement of his cutter. Regardless, AF has to have a plan for the bullpen which has been an Achilles heal for LAD the last few years.

As hard as I have been on AF with respect to the bullpen. I am giving him a pass on the last deadline. He tried for Vazquez, and thank goodness Neal Huntington is a dope. They were interested in Giles, but there were arm concerns at the time. He allegedly received a cortisone shot in his elbow right at the deadline and they passed. Shane Greene failed as a closer for Atlanta, although he did well as an 8th inning setup. Melancon cost way too much. Who else was available or moved? Is there anyone this winter? I am not sure the answer is $10MM+ for Will Smith or a 3 year contract for Will Harris. Just as I think that Clayton realizes that he needs to adjust his game, I do believe AF realizes that a solid bullpen is a huge benefit and will find the pieces necessary to create one. It is not enough to say that we can move 4-5 starters to the pen for the playoffs.

I would give up a draft pick for Rendon in a split second, a New York minute or whatever other time frame you want to measure it in. There might be other reasons I wouldn’t ultimately sign him (length of contract, dollars, etc.) but I sure wouldn’t let a draft pick stand in my way.

I’m not saying I wouldn’t sign Castellanos under any set of circumstances, but I don’t think there is any comparison between the two in player value. Rendon is miles ahead of him. I realize, however, that Rendon would come at a much higher cost.

Yes, the Astros used the crash and burn method to become good, but because they had a lot of young players, they were also opportunistic in acquiring Verlander, Cole and now Greinke. Verlander has been a difference maker, but without Cole, Houston is just not the same team. Unless they can figure out a way to keep Cole or replace him, good luck with that, they’ll take a step back. Verlander and Greinke are good, but will they continue to be at the elite level. I’m not sure Greinke is there now. In order to succeed they may need to alter the approach, which kind of puts them into the same approach used by the Dodgers the past seven years. More than one path to get there.

Realistically, the Dodgers really don’t have to change anything to win the NL West and the NL championship. They could walk right in, get hot and win the World Series with pretty much the same team and a minor tweak of two. This year they hit an incredible hot Washington Nationals team, led by two top line starters, and lost a game they should have won. Life goes on.

So, if the Dodgers do not land Cole or Rendon, it won’t be the end of the world. They’re still a championship level team with a great young core and more on the way. The question is really … does signing Cole or Rendon, on paper, make them better? No doubt. Does it win them a World Series? Maybe. Does it make the fan base happy? Absolutely. Will it make all the people who follow and post on this site happy? Probably, but it’s a tough group.

Mark, I agree with you about the sustainability model, and always have. However, there is nothing wrong with supplementing it with occasional high end free agents or trade pieces when the farm system is not quite ready to produce championship caliber replacements when they’re needed. Now, I believe is such a time.

The Dodgers are close to being championship caliber. But there are some areas of concern. Although he is still mostly productive, JT is clearly not quite the player he was, and it would seem that a move to 1B is called for. Hence, Anthony Rendon, especially since there is no 3B alternative in our farm system that is close to being ready. And of course Rendon would help mitigate our vulnerability against lefthanded pitching. And so would another right-handed bat, be it Castellanos. or someone else I’m not thinking of or aware of.

We have a bunch of young, talented pitching. But youth brings inexperience, and there is little doubt that an experienced addition or two would be welcome. Cole fits that bill, and so might Wheeler, and any other names that I am not aware of now. That won’t throw a roadblock in front of our young pitchers, but simply make it necessary for them to earn roles, be it in the rotation or in the pen. Remember, you can never have enough pitching.

If the Dodgers have the financial flexibility to spend, and spend wisely, then they need to do it.

The Astros should re-sign Cole and trade Greinke. They would still be the class of the AL.

Sporting News’ Dan Bernstein differs with you, Mark:

“Houston, historically far from baseball royalty, is everything New York and Los Angeles wish they were. A third straight ALCS appearance and second World Series showing (clinched by a walk-off 6-4 win over the Yankees on Saturday) in three years underlines that point, as do the recent failures of its top rivals.

The Astros have struck at the right moments in recent years to stack the deck in their favor come October, while the Yankees and Dodgers have repeatedly disappointed in that regard…

Los Angeles, meanwhile, did not add an elite relief pitcher before this year’s trade deadline despite its bullpen being an obvious flaw given the decline of Kenley Jansen. It had plenty of prospect ammo from which to deal. It did nothing. In Game 5 of the NLDS, its bullpen melted down, sending it out of the postseason two rounds earlier than in 2017 and 2018.

There have not been stunning managerial mistakes like the ones Dave Roberts made in the NLDS this season. There have not been inexplicable mid-career declines such as Sonny Gray in New York that were made to look bad by success elsewhere. Rather, most players have improved upon joining the Astros.

The Yankees and Dodgers, given their esteemed histories, are expected to do what it takes to be a step ahead of the league. They are not at that level right now.”

If the “window” is closing on the Astros, they will have at least 1 and possibly 2 World Series titles to show for it. The Dodgers?

That DJ LeMehue HR was not struck as well as Will Smith’s warning track shot. Altuve’s a stud! I love that little guy. But, Chapman served him up a marshmellow.

MT, I think you’re right. Houston is in the decline phase after this year. Losing Cole is going to be pretty tough on them. I also agree with you about the Yankees. The entire pitching staff is a mess with those starters being mediocre and the bullpen losing key pieces. No one else is the AL look like they will be as good next year as these teams were this year.

If AF does his job this offseason, we’ll be in a good position to finally get that ring in 2020. I can’t see the Dodgers spending less than the $200M mark on payroll next year.