State of the Starting Pitching

Mark, you started out talking about pitching and digressed to Casty. I agree with your pitcher thinking. I like a rotation of Buehler, Urias, Kershaw, May, and Stripling.

That puts Maeda in the bullpen. If Gonsolin didn’t have 4 good pitches I wouldn’t think twice about him not being in the rotation because I think he would be a great closer. I would use Maeda to close if the ninth inning had all righty bats coming up. Maeda’s is to lefties as Joc is to lefties. That makes him an 8th inning reliever or trade piece.

AC proposal of Strip and Rios for Leclerc and 3B prospect Davis Wendzel would be awesome if I were not such a Stripling fan. I would rather see White, Santana, and Rios for Leclerc and Wendzel. Basically, I like Stripling as a Dodger but if his career would be more lucrative for another team, then I could wish him a fond farewell.

Cole is not having a good first World Series.

When the dust has settled Joc will platoon with Kike’ or Pollock next year.

I will be more than happy with a Turner, Seager, Lux, Muncy infield.

The Dodgers need a stud Righty bat in LF or RF. Mookie works for me. One year of Mookie is not enough for me to get too excited but I wouldn’t blink if Boston would take Ruiz and Gonsolin. I know. They will want more.

Dustin May is a 1-2 starter on MOST teams?

HUH?? Like now, or there is a possibility……..one day……on a few teams?

Which teams are those? And are they MLB teams or MiLB teams?

Certainly no team that was even sniffing a WC berth would have May as their ace, or even a #2. MAYBE the Phils…….maybe.

Even your own thoughts have the Dodgers as a Top 10 staff, and if everything goes swimmingly, a Top 5. Even then you have May as a #4. I guess that logic would have Bueler, Kershaw, and Urias as sure fire #1s on EVERY staff. That just isn’t the case……….by a long shot.

Talk about overvaluing your own guys.

May is a nice piece of the puzzle. I am CERTAINLY glad he play for the Dodgers rather than any other team. I will hold off on penciling him in for a 2020 World Series Game 1 or 2 start at this point.

The world is littered with the Zach Lee’s and Greg Miller’s of the world.

From Ken Gurnick on the Dodgers website.

Why didn’t the Dodgers start David Freese and get him more at-bats in the playoffs? Why were rookies starting over him?

— Michael F.

I’m with you. Manager Dave Roberts said he preferred to save Freese for a specific high-leverage at-bat. But for a team with World Series aspirations, the Dodgers bucked conventional wisdom and leaned very heavily on rookies Will Smith, Gavin Lux, Matt Beaty and Dustin May. There’s a reason why so many postseason heroes are veterans, but the Dodgers chose to keep Freese and Russell Martin mostly on the bench during the NLDS. In his only playoff start, Martin drove in four runs.

———————————————————————————————

There you have it. It wasn’t because Freese was injured it was because it was Doc’s decision. A mistake I anticipated.

Looking back starting Hill in game 4 was another mistake (that I anticipated) because it automatically becomes a bullpen game unless you give the ball to a bonafide starting pitcher after Hill, which Doc did not do.

Starting Pollock against right handed pitching another mistake I anticipated.

And obviously game 5 that has been talked to death.

A lot of mistakes. But yet Doc returns.

Is Michael Wacha done?

Would he be worth a look as a bounce back candidate for 2020?

He’s only 28, and may benefit from a change of scenery?

I don’t see AF in the Cole bidding. Not his MO.

Pedro Moura at The Athletic wrote this about Cory Seager:

“But his approach to hitting is noticeably different than the rest of their roster. He was their only hitter this season to swing at the majority of pitches he saw — 51.1 percent, according FanGraphs.com. Max Muncy, for example, swung at 40 percent. Cody Bellinger: 44.4 percent.”

“It’s that the more you swing, the less likely you are to walk, and the more you swing, probably, the worse pitches you will see. The strategy can work for men like McNeil who are contact machines. He makes contact on 71.5 percent of the pitches he sees outside of the zone. Seager, this year, was at a much more pedestrian 57.2 percent.”

“Remember how Game 1 of the National League Division Series began? Patrick Corbin issued three consecutive walks, to Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor, and Max Muncy, after earlier walking A.J. Pollock. The bases were loaded and one run was already in. A single would break open the game.”

Corbin started Seager with a slider below the zone. Seager swung at it and missed. The next pitch was a similarly located slider. Seager passed on it. The count 1-and-1, Corbin threw one more slider, low but a likely strike. Seager grounded out on it. It’s easy to envision a different outcome had he stayed within the zone.”

Does Cory’s swing first mentality hurt him to the point that the Dodgers try to move him?

Urias was babied last year. The most innings he’s ever pitched in a single season was 87 in 2014. There’s no way that they will increase his IP more than 50% from last year which puts him at about 120 IP.

Big difference from Ryu. He’s a grown man who pitched 192 innings in 2013 – he was 32 last year, not 22.

Same with Gonsolin – he pitched 80 innings last year. May threw 140. He might be ready to make the jump but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start the season in AAA.

If they sign or trade for a current MLB pitcher, then that’s a rotation of

Buehler

Kershaw

Maeda

unknown MLB pitcher

maybe Urias or Stripling.

Ryu worries me. He’s going to be 33 and has had 3 major arm surgeries. Odds are he’ll break down again. We have history with the old and infirm over the past 5 years (Hill, Anderson, Kazmir, McCarthy). To sign Ryu for more than 2 years, 3 at the outside is nuts. I would rather see them go younger.

I don’t see them signing Cole

1 – He is a Boras client and will wait until the end of the off-season to maximize his $$

2 – He will want a contract over 5 years – Friedman won’t give him one

3 – The Angels or Padres will overpay to get him

Keith Law recently:

QUESTION: Thoughts on Dave Roberts’ handling of the bullpen in Game 5 of the NLDS?

Keith Law: I thought using Kershaw for Eaton was fine, leaving him in past an inning break to face one of the best RHB in the game was questionable, and not going to Kolarek for Soto was even more questionable. Roberts managed as if Kershaw were still the 2016 model, but we have a full season of pitch data that says he’s not. Using Joe Kelly in the 10th was a white flag.

QUESTION: Jeter Downs potential star? How do dodgers sort out Lux Downs and Seager?

Keith Law: At least a potential above-average regular. I think you let it sort itself out, see how Seager looks his second year back from surgery, and if he has to move you put Lux at short.

QUESTION: Will Dustin May be in the Dodgers rotation next season?

Keith Law: At some point, yes.

QUESTION: pollack, gonsolin, and keibert for mookie make sense? rids LA of an extraneous contract, deltas what they’re going to have to pay mookie to extend him, and gives boston a bottom staff SP/potential closer and a starting catcher. figure betts + cole and LA is set for the offseason.

Keith Law: it makes sense for the Dodgers. It’s a terrible deal for the Sox.

FanGraphs chat recently:

QUESTION: If I’m trading Kris Bryant, could I realistically expect to get someone from that group in return?

Kiley McDaniel: so Bryant has 2 years left at something like $40M via arbitration projects to be worth $80-90 million broadly speaking. So something like $40-50M in surplus value, absent market forces like a lack of 3B, etc. and that equals a 55 or 60 FV prospect: so something like 20th-50th overall on the top 100

QUESTION: Any insights on Diego Cartaya? % chance he is a GUY?

Kiley McDaniel: Early returns are very positive in the AZL, but catchers always take weird, non-linear development paths. Probably a 45 FV this offseason with a chance to jump to 50 if he open strong in Lo-A in 2020.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Boras is going to totally screw up free agency this year. No GM is going to know if he can sign a Boras client until late January or sometime in February. That will cause total chaos in the marketplace. Just what Boras likes, but bad for everyone else.

The one exception I could see might be Ryu. If he really wants to come back here, I could see Andrew making him a 2 year offer right after the WS, take it or leave it. Maybe Ryu is so comfortable here that he would agree to that quickly. Otherwise, AF goes on to other possibilities and Ryu leaves. If that’s the case, the Angels had better get on board because what’s the closest franchise to Chavez Ravine? And the Angels could really use him.

The starting rotation you have theoretically projected has a lot of ifs in it. Buehler is an almost certain star, he is the one bright spot in it. . Kershaw is declining, maybe he could give us what he did last year, but no more. Urias has never done more than spot starts in the majors. He has ability, no doubt, but how would he hold up over a long season, how consistently effective would he be? No certainty at all there. May and Gonsolin are essentially rookies., each started a few games. Very few rookies have big years, even the ones who turn out to be top pitchers. Those two may or may not end up as stars, it will take three years to know for sure. Finally, Stripling seems like a great guy, but he has never impressed me as a starter, outside of his first great effort, plus maybe another start or two. He could suddenly become good, or more likely, he could be a journeyman starter. He somehow reminds me of Joe Moeller, who threw hard, was always hoped to become really good, but never did.

If we actually start that rotation, there is a wide variance between possibilities for the outcome. I would anticipate a lot of erraticism, some good efforts, some bad ones, a number of games where we have to take the starter out after a few innings.. This would surely be the most iffy starting rotation we have had for many years. Ryu had a very good year, and we lose him, plus Hill, who was out most of last year, but a pretty effective pitcher for the two seasons prior. And we replace them with untested starters? I can scarcely believe that the Dodgers would start next season with that kind of staff, but I suppose it is possible, if they don’t want to spend for Cole. I think that this projected rotation would be such a gamble. that this might actually cost them a few hundred thousand in attendance. But they’d make that up in lowered payroll, of course.

I would absolutely want us to go after a high-end starter; if not Cole, than a trade for somebody else,. Imagine if we do not, and Buehler gets hurt? We would be lucky to win 85 games. With a healthy Buehler all season, we might possibly win 90, but unless we spent the money on a complete restructuring of the bullpen, plus at least one power bat, we will fall behind St. Louis, Atlanta, maybe a couple of other NL teams, including possibly SD if they get Cole. Not a happy prospect for the fan side of the equation. It would certainly not look like an organization which was determined to win a title any time soon.

Rendon is a free agent this winter. What it will take is $$$$ and a draft pick. If, as rumored, he is looking for shorter term with high AAV then we have a shot.

Mark,

I think Rendon would be the most important signing the Dodgers could accomplish, but I don’t think they’ll get him. The Dodgers need that relentless bat as the only other hitter of that calibre is JT. Neither Bellinger nor Muncy are consistent enough to be that class. Good, but not great. Getting Rendon would take Seager +++. That’s okay with me. Rendon, Lux, Muncy, &JT. Bellinger could steadily improve his consistency and re-learn what Van Scoyoc taught him the first half of the season.

As far as the rotation, Stripling should be traded. He has value and he could bring a different piece to the BP or possibly to the starting rotation. Will they get Cole? I don’t see it. So your starting rotation would be minus Stripling. They would have to either slot in Gonsolin or trade for another starter. This is not a championship rotation. Buehler got his ass kicked a few times last season and knows what it’s like and know how to push through. No doubt, he is our #1. Urias is not a #2, CK still holds that title until proven useless. Urias is a strange animal. His history is tainted, somehow. I like him but he still needs ripening. May and Gonsolin don’t know yet what it is to have hard times in the MLB. May has good stuff, but he will get his ass kicked good but you have to let him learn how to improve and improvement is what both May and Gonsolin still need. Great potential in those 3, but need to go through the gauntlet of MLB batters. Your Dodger rotation will encounter difficulties and will not be as steadfast because of the loss of Ryu and having no bonafide replacements for him and Hill and a great Kershaw in decline.

So my desire for strong bats will help to bolster the beating that the Dodger pitching will get at times as they will need real run support with RISPect. They will have to choose between the Bats and the rotation as to who they go after. If they don’t get Cole, they must get a respectable bat that will add that different dimension to our team.

AF needs to do some real work. So far, he hasn’t. Not sure if he’s the guy to do it. As I’ve said before, he has too much power and is weak in the FA market. He needs to share power with a GM.

Sorry Mark, you can try to deny that Pollock exists, but with his big second half, he’s coming back next year. You are doing yourself a disservice by pretending that he’s not going to be a starter next year. He finished with a 795 OPS, just 5 points below what he finished with the DBags the year prior when they decided to give him a 4 year deal. Do you have a pen and paper ready? Write this down. Pollock isn’t going anywhere!!!

Castellanos might be a fit if they don’t get a third baseman, but a third baseman is the better fit. Justin is losing a step in the field and they can deal with Muncy at 2B for another year. Still have your pen and paper ready? Write this down. Lux will NOT be a utility player next year. Lux will be developed on the Farm and will come up when Turner, Muncy or Seager go on the DL. Or, they strike out on a free agent third baseman and then Lux will compete for the second base job.

Speaking to the rotation, the Dodgers mismanaged Urias’ inning this year. As a result, it’s doubtful that the training wheels really come off. Maybe just one of those training wheels come off as he isn’t going from 80 inning this year to 180 innings next year. What a shame. You can blame AF and Doc for this blunder as well. We would probably still be playing if they gave up on Rich Hill and built up Urias as the game 4 starter.

AF has done a great job building the minor league system and keeping us extremely competitive during his rein of NL West titles. But, he ain’t perfect and deserves some criticism for bad post-season roster decisions and some of the in game mis-management that we attribute to Doc. Let’s see if he finally makes a move to put us over the top now that he’s got some payroll flexibility.

Front end Starter

RH Bat with 30 HR ability

Reliever that can get saves

Get it done!

I have been steady in my desire for AF to sign Gerrit Cole. But I am becoming increasingly pessimistic that Cole will be donning Dodger Blue in 2020. I see Cole very similar to Bryce Harper. He will not be in any hurry to sign, knowing some team will break at the end and give him what he wants. This is not a game that AF plays, and I do not blame him. Patrick Corbin was one of the very first to sign last winter, and it set up the Nats to do whatever else they needed to. The Dodgers usually do most of their business late December and early January. I think the Pollock signing last year (late January) was partially due to the impasse with Bryce Harper. If Cole (Boras) wants to stretch things out, I do not expect AF to be in for the long term. Arte Moreno and AJ Preller (Ron Fowler) are two that will wait and spend. Moreno is also very quick to overpay just to end the negotiations. Think Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton both early December signings for a considerable overpay. When Joe Maddon signed, he mentioned at his press conference that Arte has never been afraid to spend. Eppler did not sign Maddon to then become reticent about signing players. If the Angels do not exercise Kole Calhoun’s option, as expected, that will free up $13.0MM (net of $1.0MM buyout).

Cole would be fantastic, but there are other potential starting pitchers available, although nowhere near his abilities. Zach Wheeler would be a good #2 candidate, but not at the co-Ace level. Not a bad fallback. Ryu is still favored to re-sign with LAD. I still hear that Ryu wants to end his playing career in Korea. That would seem to give credence to Ryu agreeing to a 2 year deal, and LA is as close to a home outside of Korea that he has.

If AF has an Achilles Heal it is in his loyalty to the players in his organization. It is not necessarily a bad trait or strategy, but it can leave the team short of the 11 post season wins needed to bring home a championship. It is more likely that AF will pick a mid-rotation type pitcher to bolster the overall rotation, most of us will never think of. Thus, it is more likely than not that LAD will go into 2020 with at least 4/5 of the rotation Mark has indicated. The 5th pitcher could be someone in the Jake Odorizzi category. Not necessarily Jake, but at his level; a decent #3. I am still going to be an advocate for Corey Kluber for one year. He will not block any of the Dodger starting pitching prospects. Would Cleveland entertain any possibility of also making RHRP Nick Wittgren available?

I think Gonsolin is a potential closer, and Jo Jo Gray will not be a candidate for the rotation until 2021. If Gonsolin proves he is a better starting pitcher candidate than Dustin May for 2020, there are worse scenarios than May returning to AAA for another year. It could be where Lux is headed, and it did not hurt Verdugo. Starting pitching and catching are the two hardest positions for prospects to fill right away. Also, maybe some here already have, but I do not believe that AF or Brandon Gomes have given up on Mitchell White. He may never reach the top of the rotation as was expected, but he is a candidate that could surprise by 2021.

If you look at the organization as a whole, starting pitchers and middle infielders are organizational strengths. If the Dodgers do nothing with starting pitching, I agree with Mark that they will still have a formidable rotation. The Dodgers will still have a significant opportunity to go bold on the corners. Anthony Rendon seems like a very likely candidate for LAD to sign. He fits in the LAD model of shorter term even with high AAV. I thought that 5 years $175MM was a fair contract yesterday, and I still do. Will it be enough? I do not believe that LAD will offer 6 years for Castellanos. They may go 5 years with an option as they did with Pollock. But in order for the Dodgers to sign Castellanos they would need to trade AJ Pollock, and I do not believe they will be able to. Maybe Josh Donaldson for three years does make sense. Kody Hoese should be ready by then, if not sooner. Cristian Santana (22) and Miguel Vargas (19) could also be candidates. One of those three can replace Josh in three years. Or someone still playing college ball somewhere. The Dodgers have options to go bold at 3B if they want. I also like their options to add to their bullpen. Now will they?

Yesterday, Jeff wrote in response to Bluto’s posting of an article in The Athletic written by Peter Gammons. “Bluto. Everyone wants to be like the Dodgers. Haha. 32 years of hope, no WS rings, 2019 Worst Disappointment Award.” While Bluto is extremely capable of handling snarky comments, he did not personally make that observation. Peter Gammons wrote: “I didn’t find anyone who didn’t think the Dodgers right now are the best organization in the business”. Gammons did not say anything about the playoff roster. He said the best organization. I do not know Jeff’s network of baseball executives, but my guess is that Peter Gammons has a far more extensive network, and if his contacts say the Dodgers have the best organization, I am going to pay more attention to him. While nobody is happy about how the last three years have gone, no team can go into 2020 with a better chance to win without making any moves better than the Dodgers. No team has been better than the Dodgers over the last five years. They can continue to contend and still have one of the top five minor league systems in all of MLB. No organization can match that. None. If anyone thinks otherwise, I would love to hear their rationalization. Now can AF turn that advantage into a 2020 championship? He has a plethora of quality minor league prospects and at least $40MM to $45MM of available sub-CBT cash available to make it happen.

I would expect Boras to start at a minimum of $200 mil for Rendon, even if the contract is only for 5 years. Not saying that anyone will give that to him, but someone might come close. I guess what I’m saying is if AF makes your 5/175 offer it won’t be accepted any time soon. I think it’s going to take something like 6/210 and that’s only because Rendon has indicated he might not want to play past his mid 30’s. Otherwise they’d be asking for 8 years.

At this point I would take AF at his word and assume that Maeda will start the year in the rotation, even though I would much prefer him in the bullpen. I expect Stripling to be traded. At this point I think he has more value to another team than he has to us. I think this back and forth they’ve done with him has really screwed with his head (even though we never hear a complaint out of him). He needs to be allowed to become a starter OR a reliever and I guarantee you the results will improve. I see that happening somewhere out of L.A.

If we actually get Rendon, I don’t see us signing Castellanos also. That would give us the righty bat we need and, if we don’t dump Pollock he’s going to get a fair share of playing time. If no Casty, that means starting the year with Lux at second and letting him prove he should be out there.

Depending on the market for Wheeler, I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see us make him an offer.

I do not see Stripling as a number 5. I think Maeda is better. I think Gosolin is better than Stripling. I would like to see Hill sign and pitch out of the bull pen. He could also pick up some starts to protect Urias and May. I think Ryu walks. He likes the Dodgers and may sign a Dodger friendly contract. Stripling and Joc should be used as trade bait along with some others.

I think you’ve got the four right, but I’m guessing Maeda slots in the rotation somewhere. Stripling will get some starts, so will Gonsolin, as the Dodgers attempt to make sure the young pitchers are fresh for the playoffs. Eventually Maeda ends up in the bullpen.

Listening to Ned Colletti talk about the risks of signing a pitcher like Cole, the miles on his arm, and the fact that you really don’t know a pitcher, history, potential physical issues, work ethic etc. unless he already plays for you or one of your coaches knows him, may give pause to a Dodgers pursuit. The Dodgers may explore a deal, but there will be other teams willing to pay a $200 million plus deal and the Dodgers may consider that too much risk, especially considering that starting pitching is not really an issue for the team.

Maybe they pursue Rendon. He certainly would make them better and that may make more sense considering Turner is getting older and can slide to first. The risk would certainly be less with a position player.

If they do sign Rendon, I agree, that Lux would have to wait another year. I do see Turner remaining with the team beyond that.

I think Pollock’s second half will keep him in the outfield, still see him as a valuable asset and I’m not sure they’ll trade Joc, lot of production against right handed pitchers and the power plays.

But they will trade somebody and try to pick up a young reliever or two. A Morrow or somebody like him may be in the cards. The Dodgers will try to find a potential bounce back or two in the recycling bin.

And the wild card, will the Dodgers find an opportunity in the trade market for a hitter or starting pitcher? Maybe they look at a Zack Wheeler, lot less money, big upside.

Definitely agree with Gammons, no team will start next year in a better place than the Dodgers. No question, the best organization in baseball. But my guess the discussion for the Dodgers will focus on what it takes to win it all. Is there any specific deal to be made that could potentially put them over the top? The answer is probably no. How many teams have made that type of deal or two and won the World Series? Houston Astros. Will Cole be that player this year?

The Dodgers made deals (Manny Machado, Yu Darvish) but still ended up short. No easy solutions, no guarantees.

Me three on the on the Cole $$$, and the wailing wall gets higher every season… God knows it would be nice, but his $$$ could go a long way to support not only the offense, but pick up a couple quaity pitchers…

I’ll go with Caste…

Our SP right now tickle the s— out of me… With health and a lil luck, were looking at matching anyone in baseball… Don’t sell Gonso short…