I am sitting continuing to try to understand how the Board of Trustees and the AD at USC have chosen to retain perhaps the most over his head coach in all of NCAA Football, Clay Helton. Rudy mentioned that both Westwood and South Bend are cheering loudly, but my radar has all of the Pac 12 and South Bend laughing at this. Oh well, enough pity party for me. It’s time for Dodger Baseball.
But there is nothing going on. Not even a peep of some possibility. I couldn’t continue to just postulate possible scenarios for incoming and outgoing Dodgers. Therefore, I decided to take a look at how the farm systems look throughout MLB. It doesn’t come as much of a surprise that even with the numerous Dodgers trades of farm hands (Calhoun, Diaz, JDL, Holmes, Cotton, Montas, Peraza, Cruz, Davis, Dixon, Alexy) all top 30 and many top 10, and the graduation of 1 a year from Pederson, to Seager, to Bellinger, to Buehler, the Los Angeles Dodgers farm system is still a consensus top 10 farm system. Seager and Buehler are genuine stars, Bellinger is a defensive weapon with an offense that can and will mature, while Joc is a solid platoon LH bat and better than average defender in LF. Next up should be Alex Verdugo who is the Dodgers #1 minor league prospect, but he needs a place to play every day. Right behind Verdugo should be Gavin Lux, Dustin May, and reliever Marshall Kasowski. This is a critical year for Mitchell White. Does he stay a starter, or is he better suited for relief? It is also a critical year for Yadier Alvarez. Is he going to insist on starting where he cannot stay focused for a full game? Or can he be convinced that his stuff can absolutely dominate as a reliever? I am hopeful for the latter as he has a great arm. All eyes will also be on Jordan Sheffield as his conversion to reliever goes live for the year. He can move fast as a reliever.
Below is a chart of where the various teams farm systems line up with FanGraphs, Baseball America, and Bleacher Report as the three sources for this piece. I have also calculated where each team would fall in a consensus of the three publications. They all use different measuring tools. FanGraphs uses their 40-70 grade for the players, determines the number of prospects that reach at least 40 in their system, and then determine a Current WAR Value on these players. The teams are then ranked based on their WAR value, and range from the Padres 50.9 to the Mariners 4.8. The Dodgers rank #10 with 2 players with a grade of 55 (Verdugo, Ruiz), 3 at 50 (May, Lux, Smith), 6 at 45, and 13 at 40 for 24 prospects with a FanGraphs WAR value 23.1.
The second methodology was from Baseball America that ranks all of their prospects in order, calculates the number of top 100 prospects, makes an evaluation of the remaining non top 100 prospects, and generates a team ranking. The top team again was the Padres with 9 top 100 players, including the #2, Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS). The bottom team was again the Mariners as 1 of 2 teams without a top 100 prospect. The second team was Boston. Is it any surprise that the GMs that seemingly value prospects the least, Dave Dombrowski and Jerry Dipoto are the bottom two? With Baseball America, the Dodgers rank #9 with 4 top 100 prospects; Verdugo (26), Ruiz (27), Smith (80), and Lux (82). With MLB Pipeline, Dustin May replaces Will Smith in the top 100. Both are undoubtedly in the top 110 of both publications.
The third publication, Bleacher Report measures the prospects in tiers.
• Tier 1: Prospects who have an elite skill set and All-Star potential. This is the cream of the prospect crop.
• Tier 2: Prospects who have a good chance of becoming impact contributors at the MLB level. These are the prospects who can be found in the second half of league wide top-100 lists or just on the periphery.
• Tier 3: Prospects who profile as fringe MLB contributors or young players who are still too raw to project any higher. This tier represents the bulk of prospects around baseball, though more than a few are still capable of climbing up to the next tier.
Yes, once again the Padres lead all of MLB with two Tier 1, 6 Tier 2, and 4 Tier 3 prospects. And again #30 is the Seattle Mariners with 0 Tier 1 prospects, 2 Tier 2, and 8 Tier 3. The Dodgers remained right at that #10 spot with 3 Tier 1, 3 Tier 2, 4 Tier 3 prospects.
| Baseball | Bleacher | Cumulative | ||
| Rank | FanGraphs | America | Report | Consensus |
| 1 | Padres | Padres | Padres | Padres |
| 2 | Braves | Rays | Braves | Braves |
| 3 | White Sox | Blue Jays | Blue Jays | Rays |
| 4 | Rays | White Sox | White Sox | White Sox |
| 5 | Blue Jays | Braves | Rays | Blue Jays |
| 6 | Reds | Reds | Twins | Reds |
| 7 | Twins | Twins | Astros | Twins |
| 8 | Tigers | Astros | Phillies | Astros |
| 9 | Astros | Dodgers | Reds | Dodgers |
| 10 | Dodgers | Angles | Dodgers | Tigers |
| 11 | Pirates | Rockies | Tigers | Angles |
| 12 | Angles | Nationals | A’s | Phillies |
| 13 | Phillies | Cardinals | Rockies | A’s |
| 14 | A’s | Tigers | Angles | Pirates |
| 15 | Rangers | A’s | Rangers | Rockies |
| 16 | Indians | Pirates | Yankees | Nationals |
| 17 | Mets | Yankees | Pirates | Rangers |
| 18 | Nationals | Phillies | Orioles | Cardinals |
| 19 | Cardinals | Mets | DBacks | Yankees |
| 20 | Marlins | Orioles | Nationals | Mets |
| 21 | Yankees | Rangers | Mets | Indians |
| 22 | Brewers | Brewers | Cardinals | Orioles |
| 23 | Rockies | Giants | Royals | Brewers |
| 24 | Giants | Marlins | Giants | Marlins |
| 25 | Cubs | Indians | Indians | Giants |
| 26 | DBacks | Royals | Brewers | DBacks |
| 27 | Royals | DBacks | Marlins | Royals |
| 28 | Orioles | Cubs | Red Sox | Cubs |
| 29 | Red Sox | Red Sox | Cubs | Red Sox |
| 30 | Mariners | Mariners | Mariners | Mariners |
The Padres, Braves, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Tampa Bay Rays are each in the three publications top 5 in some fashion, with the Padres the unanimous #1 system. The Mariners are the unanimous #30 organization with the Red Sox #29 in two and #28 in one.
The Dodgers are seemingly in good shape with a young nucleus, except pitching, but they have a number of pitchers who are at the ML level or just below that can assume the mantle. Ross Stripling, Julio Urias, Caleb Ferguson, Dennis Santana, Dustin May, Mitchell White, Tony Gonsolin, and Michael Grove all considered close and in the top 14. The next level also may include some top talent that needs more experience to develop; Edwin Uceta, Braydon Fisher, John Rooney, Gerardo Carrillo, Robinson Ortiz, and Andrew Sopko. This does not include top converted reliever candidates like Yadier Alvarez, Jordan Sheffield, and Josh Sborz, or full-time relievers like Marshall Kasowski. I will include Joe Broussard in that group, because while I am not high on Joe, many fans and bloggers are.
While the Dodgers boast a couple of top ten OF other than Alex Verdugo, I am not sold on either DJ Peters or Jeren Kendall. I am hopeful that both will surprise me with a more productive 2019 with DJ probably in OKC and Kendall at Tulsa. They both need to be pushed to see if they can hit better pitching. The only other OF in the Top 30 is Starling Heredia. He seems lost but does still possess good skills. Whether he can take those skills and become a ML OF is a major question.
The middle infielders are well represented by one potential elite SS/2B (Gavin Lux), three utility players (Drew Jackson, Errol Robinson, and Omar Estevez), and two up and coming SS (Ronny Brito and Jacob Amaya). Even though Amaya is not in the top 30, he is a favorite of mine, so I am going to include him. Robinson did not have a good AFL season, but he should still garner sufficient interest as a good fielding defensive middle infielder/utility player. Can he ever become a Chris Taylor or Kike’ Hernandez? Doubtful, but he at least deserves a chance with somebody. I also would like to see Drew Jackson get a chance. It is possible that he will get drafted in the Rule 5 draft next month.
Other than catchers, the remaining top 30 consist of good stick questionable defensive position players. Edwin Rios, Matt Beaty, Cristian Santana, and Connor Joe. Again, Joe is not a Top 30 prospect, but I am including him anyway. He is another potential Rule 5 draft loss next month. The Dodgers will give Rios and Beaty every opportunity to showcase their talents in ST next year. I hope both of them work extra hard on defense in the winter to be able to someday make the 25 man.
Finally, the Dodgers are absolutely loaded with catcher prospects. When FAZ came to LA there was absolutely no catching at the ML level or minor leagues (okay they had AJ Ellis). They now boast far and away the best group of catchers in MLB. They have two top 10 MLB prospect catchers in Keibert Ruiz (#3), and Will Smith (#8), both MLB top 100 prospects. Behind these two is soon to be top 100 catcher prospect Diego Cartaya (Dodgers #11), and top LAD prospect Connor Wong (Dodgers #16). They also have multiple potential ML backup catcher prospects, including one of my favorites, 2018 draftee Hunter Feduccia. DC and I have chronicled multiple catching prospects that will continue to provide the Dodgers with solid catching for many years.
For the 2019 Amateur draft, the Dodgers will continue to look at pitching, but I am hopeful that they will give strong consideration to good bat to ball skill OFers. They will continue to look at players who can play multiple positions and provide that depth they covet, and they will draft pitchers with an eye of turning some of them into quality relievers at some point. Where they draft, it is hard to project elite pitchers. Sometimes they drop (like Buehler), but generally the best we can hope is that a Dustin May type comes through and surprises. Then there is Caleb Ferguson. Who knew? Maybe Logan White. Caleb will go down as his last draft pick (2014 – #38) that signed as a Dodger while Logan was the Director of Player Personnel with LAD. I am sure that after the 1st of the year, both DC and I will begin to look at the possible selections. But for now, LAD has a solid foundation with a solid nucleus of potential elite performers. While I love prospects, I would like to see some of them packaged for perhaps a lower level but higher ceiling prospect with solid bat to ball skills. They will not look at anyone in the Rule 5 draft, as nobody that is exposed is better than what they already have.
Below is link to all three publications and their ranking of the minor league systems.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2018-mlb-organizational-talent-rankings/
Discussion (74)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Check out Muncy’s defensive metrics at second.
Muncy had better defensive metrics at second then Taylor this year, but with twice the innings at second.
Like Mark has said for sometime, Taylor is better at shortstop, then at second.
I also think Cody will hit better if he is playing first.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/howardcole/2018/11/26/8-candidates-most-likely-to-play-second-base-for-2019-dodgers/
It’s being reported by Pedro Moura of The Athletic that the Dodgers will hire Robert Van Scoyoc to be the new hitting coach. He is currently the Dbacks hitting strategist but before that he was an hitting consultant for the Dodgers. He is the one who worked with Chris Taylor on revamping his swing when he first came to the Dodger organization. He also has worked with JD Martinez and several other players.
Sounds like the Dodgers are officially going all in on the launch angle. I personally wish they would focus more on bat to ball approach. I guess AF really digs the long ball.
With the reported hiring of Robert Von Scoyoc as the new hitting coach, I’m speculating that CT# may not be a trade candidate this off-season.
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While I have no objection to either Dino Ebel or Von Scoyoc, like AC I was hoping that Haselman or Hennessey might be given a shot at a major league role. They may have and turned the opportunity down for all I know, I am a sucker for promoting from within the ranks.
Hey Mark, when you get chance, check out an article by Travis Sawchik who writes for FiveThirtyEight. Great piece on all the “dope fiend” contracts you have been talking about for years, and there it is, bigger than crap, the D-Bags trying to dump Grienke as he is taking up 34.5 million of their 77.5 mill committed payroll this year. And to think only 3 years ago alot of people were ready to tar and feather FAZ for not going the extra year and millions more to keep Greinke. Some of the best moves are the ones you don’t make. Damn, some of the contracts in this article are nuts. Who in the hell green lighted those?
Just got message from Bleacher Report that Kenley Jansen is out of surgery, and in the video they included of Jansen, it appears that he came out OK.
I keep hearing that Arizona is aggressively shopping Goldschmidt. I’m having trouble thinking of a match for him. He’s a strange entity in that he’s a completely elite hitter who is due to test free agency after the season so you have to assume you are getting him for one year only. Teams that match up [as opposed to who would want him because who wouldn’t?] have to be: close to serious contention, fairly loaded with prospects, have an opening at 1b, willing to go all-in.
Man, former Dodger prospect Oneil Cruz is now listed as 6’7″ and primarily a CF. I have to admit I’m curious to see this guy make the majors just so I can watch the show.
Mark, if you add DJ lemay then the Dodgers would have 3 gold glovers in Bellinger, DJ, Seager, and would have 4 in Turner if not for Arenado. Having said that I wouldn’t be too quick to sign him. He would need to fall into our lap. If they do sign him somebody would probably have to go.
Fangraphs with a good piece on DJLM. They provide a range of potential contracts from 2y/$18m to 2y/$22m to 3y/$36m.
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I have to admit I really like him at those numbers and am starting to think–failing a larger move–that this is smart move that could come together fairly quickly. He doesn’t have a Q.O. attached to him either.
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If we have to move Alex Wood to free up some money, so be it. Thinking this could be a good step forward in our low-key refiguring of the roster.
Donaldson at 33 signs for 1 year at $23M. With McCann at $2MM, that is $25 MM in FA signings for the Braves, and it appears that they may be out of the Harper/Machado auction. Scott Boras and Dan Lozano are going to be on the phone with Philly admonishing them that they cannot let Atlanta get away with that, and that Philly needs to sign one of their guys (or both if they are spending crazy). Boras is going to go directly to Ted Lerner now and advise him that the Nats must sign Harper if they have any shot at getting back to the playoffs. The Braves just opened up the Harper/Machado bidding in the NL East.
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I still think that Atlanta will be in on Brantley. If they get that RF replacement for Markakis, they are going to be very tough next year. They could dangle Swanson and some pitching to get that RF, or use Camargo out in LF and Acuna moving to RF. 3B Austin Riley will be ready 2020. CF Cristian Pache 2021 at the latest. With their pitching surplus, they can find a pretty good RF bat out there even if it is a slight overpay, and create a super utility player out of Camargo. I like what the Braves are doing.
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It also looks like with the addition of McCann, that the combo of Flowers and McCann may rule out Realmuto for the Braves may. I still think that Atlanta is a logical landing spot with their pitching surplus, and they can always trade Flowers. But there is no longer any reason for them to pay an inter-division surcharge.
holy crud. donaldson to braves for $23 mil.
wow that’s a lot of green
All things considered, do we want Kemp on the roster next year? I’m torn, as I like him for his “veteran presence” and RH power bat; in some ways, he fits the weak side of a platoon quite well and is a ready-made DH for the handful of such games per year. On the other hand, he’s a bit one dimensional on a team that values versatility; in some ways, Freese has taken some of his usefulness away. I like Kemp but I have to think we’d be open to moving him, even for payroll relief.
Perhaps a DJLM signing would lead to a trade of Keekay, Taylor or Muncy or 2 of the 3. There are too many redundant players on the team maybe package them for a bat or an arm.
There are rumors we are talking with Lemaheiu’s representatives. I wonder if he will sign before I learn to spell his name.
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As much as I would support either Taylor or Keekay playing 2b “everyday,” I can see the logic in upgrading the position. There really aren’t that many places we could play an everyday player. (Muncy at 2b is the F.O.’s call but I’m sensing they don’t like it.)
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Catcher is obviously one place, but expecting offense out of the position might be a luxury for us, especially with Smith/Ruiz on the horizon. The outfield is crowded, especially assuming Bellinger will be in CF to make room for Muncy’s bat at 1B. In fact, even if we do nothing, we still have an extra starting outfielder in Verdugo to find room for.
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That leaves 2B as the main place we can add a bat. Go defensive/short-term at C, use what we have in the OF, expect better seasons from some of the regulars, and save Taylor/Keekay for what they do best.
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I’ve been resisting this kind of rosterbation because I know once we settle on the best course of action a trade will come from nowhere [like the Kemp one] and make us all look foolish for pretending to know what the F.O. might be thinking.
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Long story short: I’d be fully in favor of adding DJLM.
Enjoyable post AC! I love following our prospects and appreciate the in depth insight you and DC provide us.
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I’m excited to see how some of the 2018 draft picks perform next year. Deacon Liput, Drew Avens, Luke Heyer, Devan Mann. James Outman ( despite the horrible baseball name, a particular favorite of mine), Dillon Paulson (I always root for USC guys), Josh McClain, Hunter Feduccia and Meaux Landry (he has to make it on the name alone) all have the opportunity to rise up the prospect rankings next year. There are several pitchers as well, Drudy, Kolek, Fisher, Rooney, Warsek and Grove come to mind.
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AC perhaps you know, but is Morgan Cooper still with the organization. If he is, do you have any information where or if he might pitch next year?
In the past, he pitched well out of the pen… until last year. I would not give him a choice “You are pitching out of the pen. PERIOD!”
Back to Brock Stewart. If they start him in the pen and don’t stretch him out, I think his velocity will return to 97+. He has a good slider and a 4-seam fastball may produce better results than his 2-seamer. He sucks as a starter but could be a nice piece in the pen.
MBTR says Dino Ebel will be the Dodgers 3B coach. He was formerly on Mike Scioscias’s staff with the Angels and was a minor league coach for the Dodgers spending 6 years with the organization. Didn’t expect that hire, but it seems rather solid. Nice job Andrew!
Great read. Do you have Kasowski listed where he is for proximity to joining the club or potential impact? Not used to seeing him so highly regarded. And why do you resign Estevez to the “utility” category? Love the Monday prospect talk.
The Dodger rotation for 2019 is probably Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, Hill, and Maeda. Two of them won’t return in 2020 (Hill and Ryu), and one (Maeda) could get traded this off-season. Wood would be first up in 2019 if one of the starters were to go down but Wood is a likely trade candidate this off-season as well.
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There is therefore a lot of opportunity for Ross Stripling, Julio Urias, Caleb Ferguson, Dennis Santana, Dustin May, Mitchell White, Tony Gonsolin, and Michael Grove to get into the Dodgers 2020 rotation.
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If the Dodgers go with Taylor and Hernandez at second base to start the 2019 season then Lux has a great opportunity to move into the 2019 lineup by mid-season, especially if Muncy is traded. Also, if one or two outfielders are traded it would create space at second base by moving Bellinger or Taylor to CF. There is a good chance that we will see a lot of Lux by mid-season 2019.
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If the Dodgers do not trade for a catcher and instead go with Barnes and Farmer then there is a good chance we will see Smith with the Dodgers by mid-season.
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It could be a good time to be a top 30 Dodger prospect.
Very nice minor league survey of top 30 prospects AC.
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The Dodgers still are are not strong on 3B position players but are capturing the market with catchers. Will be interesting to see how 19-year-old Miguel Vargas adapts to A-ball for a full season.
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It is also interesting that Starling Heredia has keep his top 30 standing. However, he is still only 19 and missed about five weeks with injury during the 2018 season.
The only player I worry about losing in Rule 5 is Cristian Santana. Some rebuilding team could take a chance and stash him…