Starting Pitching is Overvalued

Ps

Romo ain’t all that anymore.

Disappointing loss there.

1 run against Cain won’t cut it.

Home plate umpire not helping in the 9th.

Giants’ pen still a problem for them

OK, we’ve got them right where we want them!

I think Ryu pitched very well tonight – 6 IP, 1 Run.

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McCarthy pitched 7 yesterday.

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Kershaw almost always goes 7.

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3 out of 5 starters are pitching meaningful innings.

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Things are improving.

Ryu has stopped throwing his slider. Big curve, lots of changeups. Giant’s broadcasters said that their scouts say his fastball isn’t the same; they also estimated that he threw 65% changeups tonight.

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Cain hurt

Can we puleeeezzzee get a few hits and score a damn run! It’s Matt friggin Cain, not a right handed Sandy Koufax! We should have pounded this guy by now.

Justin Masterson just pitched 7 shutout innings as OKC won 3-0. He allowed just 1 hit.

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Move him to the head of the class!

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Rios went 5-5 and now is hitting .364 for Tulsa.

Dang, the Giants have that great starting staff which has the worst ERA in all of baseball – 5.02! Ouch!

A couple of early observations:

Ryu’s pitches aren’t crisp. Fastball doesn’t move much unless he elevates it. Hasn’t shown the curve much. Hitting 90 on the gun, but not much there.

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Dodgers letting a lot of hittable pitches from Cain go by. Lolllypop curve, nothing fastball, some right down the middle. Plate discipline doesn’t mean letting everything go by – they should hit the hittable pitches.

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Giants have brought up one of their top prospects, Arroyo, to play 3b due to injury and struggling offense. maybe the Dodgers should do likewise?

Does Puig have the best arm in baseball, and the most acurate

Test

Put Puig in the 2 hole and move everyone else down one spot. Agon clogs the bases in front of Puig, even though Yasiel has not been getting on base much lately. Eibner may be just keeping the seat warm for Gutierrez. I predict that Cain will get hit hard tonight and Ryu pitches a good game. Puig and Grandal are about to get hot.

I checked in on some old friends today:

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Jose De Leon still has not pitched.

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Jose Peraza – .217 with a .256 OB%

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Scott Schebler – .175 with a .257 OB%

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Zach Lee – 5.63 ERA

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I envisioned better!

I am a Doctor, well… a Water Doctor! 😉

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In retrospect, if Rich Hill indeed rested all winter to let his blister heal, that may have been a mistake. I can see him back at the end of the 10 days and pitching 2 or 3 innings a couple times a week to build a callous. Maybe a gradual stretching out. Hindsight? 20/20. Who knew?

Even though I’m as frustrated with Rich Hill and his blister-plague as everybody else, still gonna go out on a limb and say someone is going to figure out how to keep it properly healed. Then look out, the damn guy is just nails and flat out filthy when he is on and healthy. Would YOU want to face him in the play-off? Hey, I know he’s old, but he is a young-old, not alot of miles on that arm. Let’s not bury the guy yet, or we might be asking for some ketchup with our crow come September.

Also, gotta love Fox Sports, they just put out an article about the D-bags and Rock show taking over the NL West. Already kicking the Dodger Dog to the curb. I’m feeling kind of sparky because it seemed like we totally got our asses kicked in AZ over the weekend, yet we still only lost 2 of 3 and showed a pulse yesterday. Besides the butt load of problems everyone(including myself sometimes)keeps talking about that we have, figure this: The D-Bags and Rockies are playing lights out right now, we are still in transition, trying to figure some things out, and yet we are only 4 games out. 4 GAMES OUT! We can make that up in a week or less. And we will, The D-bag manager said the one thing he fears the most is injuries to his pitching or bullpen. Also, the Rockies now have 3 rookies in their starting rotation because of injuries this coming weekend if my info is correct. It’s already starting, the war of attrition, which we will win every time. Now, enough of this crap, on to Bagdad by the Bay tonight! (Still killin’ me Dodgerrick, that was classic)

Lineup:

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1. Toles LF

2. Seager SS

3. Turner 3B

4. Grandal C (you know I called that)

5. Gonzo 1B

6. Puig RF

7. Utley 2B

8. Hernandez CF

9. Ryu

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Against RH Matt Cain who has a decent 3.31 ERA but has been lucky. IMHO

DODGERS PLACE JOC PEDERSON ON DL,

RECALL BRETT EIBNER

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LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers today placed outfielder Joc Pederson on the 10-day disabled list with a right groin strain and recalled outfielder Brett Eibner from Triple-A Oklahoma City.

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Eibner, 28, appeared in three games for the Dodgers going 1-for-5 (.200) in his first stint with the big league club. Eibner, who was first recalled on April 19, posted a .344 (11-for-32)/.389/.656 slashline with eight runs, a double, three home runs and eight RBI in 12 games with Triple-A OKC.

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Pederson, 25, left yesterday’s game against the Diamondbacks in the sixth inning with right groin tightness and finished the game going 1-for-3 with a run scored, a double and a walk. Pederson has appeared in 18 games with the Dodgers this season, batting .220 with six runs, three doubles, a home run and seven RBI.

Hey Mark,

I just did. There were several talented durable pitchers available on the market that wouldn’t have cost any prospects. Yes they were more expensive but hey the Dodgers can afford it being the richest club in mlb.

Otherwise you leave the 4th inning strugglers on the field while the kids develop on the farm and that can get really frustrating.

Wow. So let me get this straight. Anyone who complains about the obvious flaws of the Dodgers is instanly labeled as a “quitter” or deserter? If you point out areas that need to be improved in order for the Dodgers to win a championship then you are instantly labeled as “giving up on the season”. Can’t we point out flaws without giving up? It is possible for people to have two conflicting thoughts in their heads at the same time. Nobody should be telling anyone how to feel or what to think about the Dodgers. We all understand it’s a long season, and being a long season isn’t an excuse for poor strategies.

I don’t hate the front office, but I do hate some of the strategies and philosophies they have on the game. Starting pitching is overvalued? Perhaps it is only because it’s the name of the game and if you don’t have it you won’t get very far, or will struggle to the finish line.

Things don’t have to be this hard for the Dodgers. Look at things closely. Spouting off excuses like “Long term contracts to pitchers never work out”, or “there was nobody else available”. There were quite a few talented durable starting pitchers available during the 2015-2016 offseasons. Guys like Johnny Cueto, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jason Hammel are just a few that come to mind. And no Cueto is not going to have a 5. something ERA the entire season.

Those guys are expensive because hold onto your hats here, they are good, and you get what you pay for. Do you think the Cubs regretted paying 150 million for Jon Lester? You think they want that money back? Or perhaps maybe he was worth every penny based on the fact that he helped them win a World Series. We saw how dominant he was in the NLCS. Do you think the Giants regret signing Cueto after he had a Cy Young type season in 2016? He may lead them to another championship in future seasons. Yes some aces break down or are not worth the contracts they are signed to, but that does not mean teams should just forget about signing healthy pitchers, or forget about getting valuable innings from their rotations.

It’s just common sense, and hey this is the Dodgers here. They have the financial resources to sign like 10 Greinkes, or 20 Cuetos. We’re not talking about the Rays or Padres here.

Yet Dodger management decided to continually sign and or acquire injury riddled pitchers that can’t pitch more than 5 innings per start. That’s not a good strategy for long term success in a long baseball season no matter what economy you are in. This isn’t about value, or trying to reinvent the game. This is about not burning out your bullpen because the rotation can’t provide the adequate innings needed so that the relievers don’t have to pitch 5-6 innings every single game without their arms falling off.

It’s common sense. If you don’t want to spend the money in free agency, then you have to either make a trade and gasp give up a few prospects, or call up the prospects and let them pitch at the major league level. Leaving the 4th inning strugglers in at the major league level only makes things harder for the club. Again there is an easier way to win, it doesn’t have to be this hard.

The Dodgers need workhorses in the rotation and we should all be able to critique the club without being labeled quitters. There is no need to defend executives or their wallets. I root for the Dodgers, I do not root for executives, nor do I feel the urge to defend them as if they are my relatives.

Let’s see how this season plays out

McCullough has a good informative mailbag.

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He touches on Bellinger coming up (don’t hold your breath,) Maeda’s struggles, and (more obliquely) the Dodgers hitting woes.

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http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-mailbag-cody-bellinger-20170424-story.html

Mark, the font is getting too small IMO. I’m eating carrots but…

I think this was from MLB Rumors:

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A Major League team can control a player for six seasons after the player accrues 172 days of service time. As long as they call him up sometime after April, they can play him as much as they want without the risk of losing a year of control.

Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias “might” make his first big league start of 2017 in the coming week, manager Dave Roberts said Saturday (via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). Urias would step in for Alex Wood, who Gurnick notes would return to the bullpen after making a start in place of the injured Rich Hill on Friday. The 20-year-old Urias tossed 5 2/3 scoreless innings and 93 pitches Friday with Triple-A Oklahoma.

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As for Hill, who has dealt with chronic blister issues since last year, he has “tinkered” with a new grip during his latest DL stint, per Roberts. Hill has also tried to cure his problems with pickle juice and rice, among other methods mentioned by Gurnick. It seems the 37-year-old has made progress in his recovery. “It’s toughened up for sure,” Hill said of the blister.

Stewart is in the long-toss phase of his throwing program and is scheduled to start throwing off a mound next week. Stewart said he has been told May 20 is the target for him to be pitching in games for one of the Dodgers’ minor-league teams.

Here’s our complete Prospect Team of the Week:

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C: Will Smith, Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Class A Advanced). Dodgers’ No. 14 prospect)

7 G, .440/.548/.920, 4 R, 3 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBIs, 5 BB, 5 K, 4 SB

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Smith tallied a hit in all seven games last week for the Quakes, with six of his 11 hits going for extra bases. Three of those hits were home runs, largely thanks to his first career multi-homer game on Sunday, and he also stole four bases in as many attempts. And though he started a majority of his games behind the plate, Smith started two games at second base, as well as one at the hot corner.

MJ: “Bum

I remember you mentioning Scherzer.

And I remember you talking about the opt out, and back loading his contract.

Dodger patch had the same type of idea that you had, about signing Cueto too.

And actually, both you and Dodger patch, seem to have had a smarter way, to fill our rotation with another quality pitcher, without having to make a long contract agreement, so our young pitchers, wouldn’t be blocked.

And neither one of you, have the info the front office has, or the experience they have either.”

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Well before you give the job to Bum or Dodgerpatch, consider this:

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Scherzer is signed through his age 36 season with his current $210M/7yr contract, it runs for another 4 years after this year. While Scherzer has looked good the first two years of the contract, WILL IT CONTINUE???

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Cueto is signed through his age 35 season and owed another $84M after this season and an additional $5M to buyout his age 36 season. His current ERA is 5.25!!

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Backloading Scherzer’s contract makes it HARDER to move him if he starts sucking. Opt-outs benefit the player ONLY, what is the current betting line on Cueto opting out?

From Houston Mitchell of The LA Times

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The e-mails have been coming in really fast, and very furious. “This team will never win.” “Management obviously doesn’t have winning as a priority.” “The season is basically over at this point.”

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Those are actual quotes from actual e-mails I received Friday and Saturday after the Dodgers got blown out by Arizona twice.

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Now, most of you are still on board with the Dodgers, and realize that you can’t really judge anything by an 18-game stretch. So, this next part is not for you. You can go ahead and skip to the next section of this newsletter. I will meet you there after I talk to the 20% or so of Dodgers Dugout subscribers who seem to think that 2017 is a disaster,

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Now, most of you are still on board with the Dodgers, and realize that you can’t really judge anything by an 18-game stretch. So, this next part is not for you. You can go ahead and skip to the next section of this newsletter. I will meet you there after I talk to the 20% or so of Dodgers Dugout subscribers who seem to think that 2017 is a disaster,

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OK, you 20%: Calm down. Relax. You can’t judge a team by 18 games. I can pull an 18-game stretch from almost any team in history and make them look bad. But here’s the real problem: If you are giving up already, then you might want to find a new hobby, because following baseball is not for you. You are the type of person who complains about the taxes after winning the lottery. And I’d hate to be one of your children. “Son, I was really proud of you the last three or four years. Really proud. Told everyone what a big fan of yours I am. But, that last report card had a ‘C’ on it, so your mom and I are going to have to let you go. You are obviously a total loser, and we want you to find someplace else to live. Don’t worry though, we’ll be back as soon as you get an ‘A’ and say we were behind you all the time.”

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Don’t get me wrong, because there are flaws on this team (Scott Van Slyke? Chris Hatcher?) and it is entirely possible that this team will be a disappointment. It is also entirely possible that they will right the ship and be in first place at the end of the season. It is far too early to tell. If you want to throw in the towel now, then the exit is over there. And there are no re-admit privileges.

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Amen Brother!

There are two ways of looking at value; in terms of pricing, and in terms of ability/success. It is clear to me that Friedman was referring to value in terms of pricing. It is somewhat incredulous that some would think that Friedman was actually referring to starting pitching and its influence on winning as to being overvalued. IMO, Friedman was saying that the price for that starting pitching is over-valued. Is he wrong? There are 11 players currently with an annual salary at $25M or more, and 8 are pitchers; Greinke, Price, Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, Lester, Hernandez, and Strasburg. Of those pitchers, only four have WS appearances; Price (1 with Tampa Bay in 2008 as a rookie reliever), Scherzer (1 with Detroit in 2012), Verlander (2 with Detroit in 2006 and 2012), and the only pitcher in that group with a WS ring, Jon Lester (3…2 with Boston in 2007 & 2013, and 1 with the Cubs in 2016). There are six more pitchers making $20M or moreannually; Hamels, Sabathia, Cain, Tanaka, Zimmerman, and Cueto. Four of these pitchers have WS appearances, Hamels (2 with Phillies in 2008-2009), Sabathia (1 with Yankees in 2009), Cain (2 with SF in 2010 and 2012), and Cueto (1 with Royals in 2015).

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Of the eight with WS appearances, Lester is the only pitcher to win with two teams, the one he was drafted by (Red Sox) and the one he signed as a FA (Cubs). Price, Verlander, Hamels, and Cain also made the WS with the team that drafted them. One was a FA (Sabathia), and two were with teams they were traded to (Scherzer and Cueto). Cueto was the only deadline trade pitcher to make it to the WS in this group. Of that group, 4 appeared in multiple WS (Verlander/Lester/Hamels/Cain), and all four appeared in multiple WS with the team that drafted and originally signed them. Only Lester went on to win with another team.

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It would appear to me that the best results come from the combination of pitchers and the teams that drafted them, rather than via deadline trade or FA. IMO, Friedman is doing it correctly by stockpiling the farm with potentially outstanding starting pitching, and waiting for it to develop, rather than signing FA pitchers or trading those prospects. I know a lot of FAZ critics wanted the Dodgers to go after Sonny Gray in 2015. That would not have worked out too well back then. So which #2 is available? It is easy to complain, but determining a solution is not as easy. Chris Archer and Jose Quintana seem to be the two closest to the #2 level that may be available. And no, you are not going to get either one with a package of Grandal/SVS/Kike’/Hatcher/AGon/ Thompson/Toles. Not only is it not comparable value in terms of baseball talent or financial cost; there are not enough 40 man slots open to fill 5 or 6 or 7 players. So the idea of quantity for quality trade is not going to come unless you include players not on the 40 man; in other words high level prospects. Think Cole Hamels and Chris Sale. Trades for Archer and Quintana are going to start with some combination of Urias/Bellinger/Verdugo/Buehler/White/Alveraz. How many of those are you willing to move for a chance. You might be willing to trade high level prospects for either because of their current contracts, but how high and how many?

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FAZ traded Cotton/Montas/Holmes for a chance with Hill. They almost got to the finish line. I know close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, but they did not leverage their future for that chance. I am okay with the decision. Regardless as to how well any of the three do with the A’s, none of the three would have given the Dodgers a chance last year or this year, and probably not next year or the year after that. That is the cost for a pitcher that was leading the league in ERA, regardless as to how fragile.

Wow – what a straw man argument. Are you trying to say that during the life of his contract, Brandon McCarthy has provided more value per dollar than the others on your list?

Kershaw

2016 – 149 IP, 97 H, 11 BB, 172 K, 12 – 4, 1.69, .72, $34.6MM

2015 – 233 IP, 163 H, 42 BB, 301 K, 16 – 7 , 2.13, .88, $32.6MM

Lester

2016 – 203 IP, 154 H, 52 BB, 197 K, 19 – 5 , 2.44, 1.02, $25MM

2015 – 205 IP, 183 H, 47 BB, 207 K, 11 – 12, 3.34, 1.12, $25MM

Greinke

2016 – 159 IP, 161 H, 41 BB, 134 K, 13 – 7, 4.37, 1.27, $34MM

2015 – 222 IP, 148 H, 40 BB, 200 K, 19 – 3, 1.66, .84, $25MM

Strasburg

2016 – 148 IP, 119 H, 44 BB, 183 K, 15 – 4, 3.60, 1.10, $10.4MM

2015 – 127 IP, 115 H, 26 BB, 155 K, 11 – 7, 3.46, 1.11, $7.4MM

Hamels

2016 – 201 IP, 185 H, 77 BB, 200 K, 15 – 5, 3.32, 1.31, $23.5MM

2015 – 212 IP, 190 H, 65 BB, 212 K, 13 – 8, 3.65, 1.23, $23.5MM

McCarthy

2016 – 40 IP, 29 H, 26 BB, 44 K, 2 -3, 4.95, 1.38, $12.5MM

2015 – 23 IP, 24 H, 4 BB, 29 K, 3 – 0, 5.87, 1.22, $12.5MM

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And if it’s so dumb not to sign pitchers for more than $48MM, what about Kershaw? Didn’t Lester help get the Cubs to and through the Series? Do they get there without him? Do the Rangers make the post-season without Hamels? The Dodgers got 6 innings from their starters 66 times in 2016 and 102 in 2015 – do you think that Zach Greinke’s absence has anything to do with that?

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Max Scherzer is signed for about $200MM – is that a bad deal? Is it possible to sign a pitcher for big money and have it work out for the team?

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On the other hand, have the Dodgers really gotten value for the bulk of their “old and infirm” pitchers? I think not.

White was so-so yesterday. Lots of balls. Sborz got lit up at AA.

A bitcher’s reply: Stop being fixated on 100 pitches or 150 innings and start developing starting pitchers to pitch 9 innings. I would start with college kids only, and only those who are front line, Friday pitchers. Forget high school kids. It takes too long for them mature. No pitcher younger than 21 will be drafted. Friday college pitchers, I think, are supposed to complete games. Once drafted, they continue to pitch once a week and are only taken out when they suck. At the second year, they go every 5 days, with 7 innings the goal. The third year, the same with 9 innings the goal. This would be an organizational thing starting with rookie ball. Don’t even think about pitch counts. Pitch counts don’t matter; getting hitters out into the 8th inning matters. If arms blow, so be it. After one TJ, you are on probation, and there is no 2d TJ for the organization. Let someone else deal with it. The pitch count is the worst thing that has happened to starting pitchers since lowering the mound. All teams, including ours , have starters whose goal it is to pitch to 100, not to win and complete games. It stinks.

Mark

I think what upset me about Hill, is that I showed faith in the front office with his signing, because I thought he had more upside, then the other pitchers they signed.

And when he couldn’t pitch that far in his last start, the Dodgers went straight to saying, Hill can be used in the bullpen very quickly, after that game.

So I thought there has to be more with Hill, that we don’t know.

And he never pitched well in spring training before his first start, either.

And that didn’t worry me, but to say he can be used in the pen, right after his first game, made me lose faith, with this signing, and made me wonder, if there was more to this.

Why did they jump to that, so quickly?

What kind of gas mileage are you getting? I think I have that same twin turbo Ecoboost engine in the Ford Flex I just bought used and I’m average 13.5….something seriously wrong.

I’m fond of asking the naysayers what their VAS, or Viable Alternative Strategy is. “So…you’d rather have Greinke right now?” “Do you still think signing Samardzija was a good idea?” “Ok….if not Hill or Maeda then who?”

That usually ends the conversation.

Only problem is Taylor is playing 2B with Forsythe out along with Utley. SVS can still split LF with Toles and Kike has more experience in CF. I agree there are better options than calling up Thompson until he starts hitting. I have heard nothing about when Gutierrez is returning from the DL. Sliding Puig over puts SVS in RF and weakens the defense in 2 spots. Puig was ok there and can cover a lot of ground but the routes are different. With more time there he would be a good center fielder but he is great as a RF.

Ok, I guess the math was too much for me this morning causing duplicate posts!

Looking at the 40 man roster a move would have to be made to bring up any of the 3 starters mentioned above. Joe Gunkel is the obvious candidate unless Ethier or Kazmir is moved to the 60 day DL. My gut is Wood gets another start and he is really just getting stretched out and Maeda gets another start as well then a decision is made. They are trying all sorts of things with Hill and if successful that would help a ton.

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What to do if Joc goes to the DL? Thompson can handle CF but has yet to have a hit this year. If Toles can handle CF maybe he slides over and Puig has done it in the past. Kike can play there for now or bring Eibner back but Bellinger would look good there, arbitration clock or not. AC posted a great link yesterday that bringing a first year player up before June 1st could make them ‘Super Two’s’ with 3 years of arbitration control instead of 4. I don’t think it makes sense to call up a guy early and start the clock if they won’t be everyday players and this is just a short term situation until Joc is healthy and he may just need a few days.

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Huge test for Ryu today and the Giants are reeling. He can keep them off balance with breaking stuff and spot the fastball low in the zone and gut out a win if the bats give him 4 or 5 runs to work with. Kershaw going tomorrow means the bullpen can be used early if needed and Roberts will go all out for the win and Jansen could come in for more than 3 outs.

Yeah, I would like to start hearing about the “better way” from the complainers.

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We all know 7 inning studs would be welcome and .300 BA, 30 hr, 100 RBI two-way players would also be nice. But where were those guys for FAZ to pick up at less than the cost of Denali XL? Can’t believe Mark doesn’t have butt warmers though.

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Even last season’s 20/20 hindsight FAZ blooper, J.A. Happ, is now at sickbay, with FOREARM inflamation, replaced by long-time favorite Matt Latos. Happ’s rotation mate 24 yr old Aaron Sanchez is also on the shelf with blisters. Seems like pitcher injuries can happen to ANYONE!

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Maybe there is something to the FAZ pitcher DEPTH plan. Make that the whole organization DEPTH plan.

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https://jaysjournal.com/2017/04/22/blue-jays-j-happ-suffers-setback-20-pitch-side-session/

I still believe that Kasmir will bounce back. I haven’t read anything that says his hip tightness is arthritic or irreversible.

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McCarthy’s stuff is impressive. I love that he is earning his paycheck as too many have repeatedly commented that signing him was an example of FAZ wasting money that could have been better used elsewhere.

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I have liked Stewart for quite awhile now and look forward to see what he will do in May.

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Oaks could be a good #5 and be an innings eater. It would be great if he were more than that.

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Jurrjens briefly showed that he has the stuff to be a #2 but that was a few years ago. If he is pitching well now, why not give him the ball until he regresses if he does.

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Between Dixon, SVS, Segeden, and Thompson, it seems like Dixon needs to get a chance. If Joc goes on the 10 day DL, why not showcase Puig in CF. It might add to his trade value. While Joc is out, maybe Toles, Kike’, and Puig could be the outfield.

I am not sure about Hill. I saw an interview and he said rest is the only cure. That is fine, but he is a curve ball pitcher. That will put a lot of stress on the finger and more blisters.

One DL I forgot is Forsyhe. I would cut Utley. I know that is not popular, but he is batting under 100. He is a great guy and great player, but h has lost it. If no one picks him up, I would assign him as a roving infield instructor.

I agree with almost everything you say Mark. Ryu is a pitcher and not a thrower. He can survive with a slower fastball. Wood and Stripling need to be in the pen. Right now we need two starters. Urias will be one. Jurrjens or Oaks will be the other. My bet is it will be Jurrjens. They always go with the experience over youth.

The one that still makes me mad is Hill. We signed a 37 year old to a 3 year contract with blister problems. Dumb.

They have decisions to make when some come off the DL. Dayton for Hatcher. Segedin for SVS. Segedin can play first and left field. Taylor can play center. You have to keep those two as bench players. Now my two problem children. Joc and Puig. Those two are a disappointment to me. I think you have to keep running them out there, If they continue on the path they are on we will see Bellinger and Verdugo. Toles needs to play every day.