Players are expected to report to camp beginning today and there are a couple of topics that have caught my attention. It has been close to 50 years since MLB moved from a four man rotation into the current five man rotation. However for 2020, in an abbreviated season, the six man rotation is being considered.
There are now a couple of teams coming out indicating that they are going to go with 6 starters to begin the season. First the Angels came out with a six man primarily because they wanted Shohei Ohtani to only pitch once a week. The LAA six man rotation figures to be:
- Shohei Ohtani
- Griffin Canning
- Andrew Heaney
- Julio Teheran
- Dylan Bundy
- Felix Pena or Matt Andriese or Patrick Sandoval or Jaime Barria or Jose Suarez or Dillon Peters
The Mariners are projected to send out in their six man rotation:
- Marco Gonzalez
- Yusei Kikuchi
- Justus Sheffield
- Justin Dunn
- Kendall Graveman
- Taijuan Walker
The Orioles are contemplating a six man rotation of :
- John Means
- Alex Cobb
- Asher Wojciechowski
- Wade LeBlanc
- Kohl Stewart
- Hector Velazquez
I would expect that there will be additional teams that will decide to begin the season with a six-man rotation. However, as of this writing, the Dodgers are expected to go with a five man rotation:
- Walker Buehler
- Clayton Kershaw
- David Price
- Julio Urias
- Alex Wood
Pitchers that could certainly fill that #6 role, and IMO, far superior to most of the above pitchers include:
- Dustin May
- Tony Gonsolin
- Jimmy Nelson
- Ross Stripling
Brusdar Graterol has also been mentioned as a starter, but he appears to be a future closer with his 100+MPH fastball and wipeout slider, and the number of starters ahead of him. Caleb Ferguson can also start if needed. Mitchell White who is on the 40-man is also considered a starter.
Not surprisingly, Dave Roberts has indicated that none of his starters will go more than 4 innings for at least their first start.
It has been three weeks since the draft. While teams have until August 1 to sign their draft picks, as of this writing, 125 of the 160 players drafted have either signed or have agreed to terms.
There is ample evidence that teams “recruited” players with signing bonuses in mind. I would not be surprised if 160 drafted players sign. But I expect that a handful of draft picks will opt to not sign. As an example, Baltimore surprised EVERYONE when they selected Heston Kjerstad as their #1 (overall #2) over LHP Asa Lacy and Vanderbilt OF Austin Martin. The O’s saved $2.6MM and used that to sign highly ranked HS players: 3B Coby Mayo and RHP Carter Baumler. They are still nearly $328K underslot, funds they can use to sign the lone remaining draft pick; 3rd round Anthony Servideo, SS, Ole Miss. The lowest rated draft pick (per MLB Pipeline) was their #4, Coby Mayo at 132. The Orioles have strategized the best way they can use their dollars.
Compare what the O’s did to what the Mets did. The Mets used their full slot amount in signing HS OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, but then went $1.5MM over slot to sign J.T. Ginn. How did they pay for that? They drafted and signed two players who signed for $20K each giving them the funds to pay for Ginn. They still went $324,300 over slot incurring an overage tax of $243,225. Or how about the White Sox who paid slot dollars for 1st round selection Garrett Crochet and then went significantly overslot to draft and sign Texas HS RHP, Jared Kelley for more than $1.4MM overslot. They paid for Kelley for well under slot draft and sign of 3rd, 4th, and 5th draft picks. The Mets will be happy with Crow-Armstrong and Ginn as their draft picks and the White Sox will be satisfied simply with Crochet and Kelley.
Further evidence comes in the names of two players some on this site felt the Dodgers missed on; Cole Wilcox and Jared Kelley. Most of the baseball journalist talent evaluators were not convinced that there was a huge (if any) difference between Wilcox and the Dodgers #1, Bobby Miller. Both are big hard throwing 21 year old RHP. Both started this season as full time starters for the first time, and both as Saturday starters. Both Georgia and Louisville had dominant Friday starters that were drafted top ten. Both have a secondary slider that could be plus, but not much else, except Miller does have four potential pitches. Both are considered to be huge reliever risks. The difference, Wilcox was drafted in 3rd round by San Diego and paid Wilcox $3.3MM or $1.1MM more than Miller. Jared Kelley obviously scared a number of teams away with his demands, but the White Sox are comfortable with “overpaying” for Kelley. The Dodgers are not going to pay anyone close to $3MM. Is that a mistake? Should they have simply drafted Wilcox and or Kelley and paid over their entire slot dollars? Are some fans more knowledgeable about the chances of Wilcox and Kelley over Miller/Knack/Beeter than LAD talent evaluators? I guess we will find out in 3-5 years.
More draft tidbits:
Fifteen teams have signed all of their draft picks, while 15 still have players to sign.
Of the fifteen teams that have signed all of their draft picks, nine teams have bonuses paid in excess of their slots, while six are underslot. Tampa Bay came the closest to their slot values by being in excess of $400. The Nationals not far behind at being only $700 under slot. The other extreme is the St. Louis Cardinals who are currently tabulated at $423,900 overslot which is greater than 5% of the budget putting the in danger of losing a first round pick in 2021. We will have to see where those amounts are once the final contract dollars have been published.
There remain only four unsigned first round picks and four unsigned CBA rounds.
First Round
- Austin Martin – Toronto
- Patrick Bailey – San Francisco
- Nick Yorke – Boston
- Garrett Mitchell – Milwaukee
CBA
- Carmen Mlodzinski – Pittsburgh
- Slade Cecconi – Arizona
- Drew Romo – Colorado
- Tanner Burns – Cleveland
To make up for the lack of draft picks, each team can sign an unlimited number of undrafted free agents, but the maximum amount of bonus of $20,000. To date 142 players have signed with 26 teams. The Angels, Rays, Tigers, and White Sox have not yet signed any. Three teams have signed one; Dodgers, DBacks, and Pirates. At the other extreme, the Red Sox have signed 14. Not all (but certainly most) are college seniors.
With the MiLB season cancelled for 2020, this could be a precursor of things to come for MiLB. Many teams are already projecting a reduction in their affiliates. The 2020 draft was five rounds, and instead of going back to 40 rounds, the 2021 draft will be reduced to 20. I can see signability being more of an emphasis for top talent becoming more of a consideration as we move forward. Scouting and signability!!!
Discussion (49)
Disagree, not disagreeable
MLB knew that this would happen… thus the COVID Squad.
It could get rather dicey!
And so it begins:
From Dodger Digest
Sources: Dodgers top prospect Keibert Ruiz has tested positive for “Coronavirus”, according multiple sources. Ruiz is right now in isolation in LA. More than 10 players are believed to be positive for Covid-19.
Since most are suggesting that starters be limited to 3 or 4 innings to begin, what is the rationale of a starter having to go 5 innings to be eligible to get a win? A reliever can get a win without even throwing a pitch!
After 30 days it will only be like carrying one extra player. But they also have the taxi squad on the road, and the pool of players working out. So a possible rotating roster. But with the 26 man roster, they can only carry 13 pitchers. Try figuring out who those 13 will be and I would bet they would be the same 13 who would have broken camp with the team in April.
My grandson has tested positive for the virus. He has no symptoms. He is 20. His friend got it first and that is why he was tested. He is a college student at University of Idaho. However, in the Boise valley, they will not test you until you have symptoms. My son, daughter in law and their other two children cannot be tested until they show symptoms. Seems stupid to me. If you been exposed, you should be able to get a test.
One more point (OK actually 2 points) on the 6 man rotation. In a normal 162 game season the argument for keeping you pitchers fresh as the season grinds on is one of the selling points of a 6 man rotation. With a 60 game season (think the seasoning over in June with no July/August/September grind to tire players out) pitchers should break able to stay fresh on a 5 man rotation schedule.
I think there are 2 main reasons you don’t see a 6 rotation more often is
1) roster size. In a normal year with a normal roster size, to add a 6th starter you have to decrease your BP strength from 8 to 7. The initial 30/28 man roster makes that viable for the first month but then we are back to 26 man rosters. Not sure using that extra 26th man this year as another starter would be the ideal choice.
2) not that many teams actually have 6 quality starters (not to mention 7,8 or 9) which would be needed to maintain a 6 man rotation when the injuries happen.
I’m going to keep beating the drum for a “piggyback” rotation a little longer.
In a normal year (boy, that sure sounds nostalgic), one would go with a 5 man rotation (Kershaw, Buehler, Price, Urias and Wood) with your 6th man (Stripling) in the BP as a long man. Your 7-9 starters (May, Gonsolin, Nelson) would be stretched out in AAA.
This year there is no AAA for them to get the work pending call up. I don’t think you can get the needed work in with just practice sessions (@USC/Rancho) with the “COVID” team. Practice is just different than real games. Give them (May, Gonsolin, Nelson) game experience in three innings after your starter.
They won’t be available for 5 days if we look at this as another starting slot, but with the initial 30 man roster we can carry our 7-9 starters on the roster and still keep adequate BP strength. After two weeks it is likely 1-2 pitchers will need a IL stint/COVID illness rest which will take care of the decrease to 28 man rosters. Same for the decrease to 26 man rosters.
I think that during “Summer Training” there will be some COVID-19 outbreaks and some teams will have to rotate COVID-19 Squad players in. It will also happen throughout the season, but by the playoffs, hopefully, “herd immunity” will be reached or a vaccine will be available.
This is a damn strange time. The death rate is down to 4.7%, but if the CDC is to be believed, it is 0 .47% or lower. That’s much nearer to the flu, even though it is more virulent.
I still think the rotation (barring injury) will be Kershaw, Buehler, Price, Urias and Wood. In regards to Urias not pitching deep into games, that is by design. The Dodgers have been limiting his exposure. I would expect him to be able to go 5 or 6 this year and ramp up next year. No innings limits will apply to anyone.
I know this season is going to be a sprint to the finish but there are going to be some blowout games the youngsters can get into games. I’m looking forward to Cody Thomas, Zach McKinstry, and DJ Peters in the field. On the mound the 3G’s Graterol, Gray, and Grove.
Jeff, if you don’t mind, I’d like to share this article from The Athletic. It should bring back lots of memories to those of us who grew up in So. Cal.
https://theathletic.com/1902110/2020/07/01/from-baja-to-the-canadian-rockies-an-oral-history-of-xtra-sports-690/
Good post Jeff! I think the 6 man rotation will be a big part of this season, should it actually happen (which I still doubt).
I hope both Clayton “Egg” Beeter and Jack “The Bird” Vogel get signed. The Dodgers have a history of being last minute in revealing their signed players. I was hoping this year they would be different.
You all make some good points. If the 4 lefty’s were Koufax, Ford, Spahn and Carlton, I would be down with that. But obviously, I do not have a whole lot of faith in either Wood or Urias. I like Stripling as the long man and spot starter. But I prefer May or Gonsolin, or even Nelson if healthy in the rotation. Just the way I roll I guess.
I would look at 8 starting pitchers with a 4 man starting rotation. A starting pitcher goes 4 innings with another starter to go 4. Then 1 inning for the closer. You will need at least 2 closers to go every other day. Then as the season moves along, move to a 5 man rotation. At the end of the season use a 6 man rotation. They will have to think out of the box this year. I do not think baseball, basketball and football will survive the season. This virus is very contagious. Players will become infected and they will quit even though it does not kill many young people. If I had some medical condition, I would not play.
AC, I like your breakdown and article. I, myself, would not mind a 6-man rotation especially if the pitchers can only go 4 innings at first. Maybe it would help to save the bullpen? If they go to a 6-man rotation, I would add Stripling to your starter list.
Not a huge fan of the lefty heavy rotation. So a 6 man with a RH in there would make more sense. As for Price, he was looking pretty good in the early workouts and games, I trust a pitcher of his caliber much more than I do scatter armed Wood. But, if both are healthy, then they can be assets. As for Urias, he has shown flashes, but not much in the way of stamina. After 4 innings he loses something. But he is young, has something to prove, and does have some nasty stuff. I would like to see if Nelson is healthy. The guy can be really nasty if he is. Of course that is if. May and Gonsolin are the next wave. I liked what I saw from both last season, and I think they will be contributors this year. Yep, we definitely need a sarcasm font…..
I’m not that knowledgeable on pitching, but it seems to me that piggybacking a 5 man rotation would make more sense this year than a 6 man rotation.
With the short training (3 weeks) pitchers are only expected to go 3-4 innings the first couple times around. With our 8-9 starters, pair L/R for the first 7-8 innings for the first month or so as the pitchers build up.
The inevitable injuries should thin things out as they build up.
As the season continues, the occasional insertion of a 6th (spot) starter when there are not many off days would keep everyone fresh before the fall contraction to a 4 man rotation for the playoffs.
Of course injuries and COVID will blow everything up.
Thanks for the deep dive into the post draft status of the various teams AC. Really interesting stuff. Apparently most teams won’t be signing many of those $20k guys (including us) but for whatever reason, the Red Sox have gone in the opposite direction. All 14 of their signings together only cost them $280k. If even one of them becomes a major leaguer it will have been worth it.
As Mark said, this could be a spectacular starting rotation and if any of the first five don’t produce, we have a lot of guys just waiting to step in. I’m very anxious to see what Price does. He was supposedly not happy in Boston, almost from day one there. The L.A. atmosphere (both clubhouse and city) could make a huge difference. We shall see.
GREAT BLOG, JEFF!
Like every season, the key to this short season will be injuries. We have already had a glimpse of what Kershaw, Price, and Wood have been able to do with the help of Driveline Baseball and Rob Price. They have all added 2-3 MPH on their fastballs and looked extremely fit. What has happened in the interim remains to be seen. However, if they are as advertised in March, by the playoffs they should just be hitting their stride. Clayton will not be tired after throwing 32-35 starts and IF HEALTHY, the starting pitching could be some of the best ever!
It seems like Julio Urias has been around forever. but he is only 23 and has 4 pitches, including a 98 MPH Fastball with late movement. He had a 2.49 ERA last season in a very unfortunate year for him. The same person who told me about Andrew Toles months ago (I could not repeat it) has also told me that the assault charges against Julio are BS. It’s just the time we live in. You have to appease the media. As good as Striker Buehler is, Julio could be right there with him and Kershaw is far from done. Price and Wood looked renewed in March and this rotation could be one of the best in baseball – EVER! They also have the depth to withstand injuries… or COVID-19!
Speaking of COVID-19, the cases are still spiking in many states (not Indiana), but the death rate is spiking down. We had ZERO deaths in Indiana yesterday! We could get into the hows and whys, but while more are testing positive (well duh… more are being tested), the percentage of deaths is down dramatically… and that my friends, is a good thing!
On May 5, there were 24, 805 new cases and 2,701 deaths. On June 20, there were 43, 865 new cases and 613 deaths. Almost double the cases and 25% of the deaths. It’s sad the media doesn’t report that, but then again, I think the whole premise is to keep people in fear. Where are those damn murder hornets?
In terms of building up pitchers after a long layoff, I am curious whether it’s better to go with a 5- or 6-man rotation. It seems that the trade-offs are avoiding injury versus taking longer to build pitchers up to handle longer outings (e.g., 6 or more innings per start). Curious what you all think!
It seems to me that in light of this ‘throwaway’ season, it could be a very useful time to give the 6 man rotation a try. OTOH, given that there is a finite amount of games to be played, long looks at some of the starters could be very useful for future seasons.
For example, how will Price fit in and hold up. The same for Wood. Price is on a downward trajectory in his career. Will it continue, and if it does, what will be his future with the team? Wood has yet to make a real statement anywhere as a starter, mostly due to his fragile health. We saw the potential he has here in one season, but this was a small sample size. He needs to shine in order for the team not to replace him with the young guns ready to move up, and we have those young guns, already.
Urias is in essentially, a make or break position. We’ve yet to see a breakout but the potential is there. His endurance and ability to manage as a starter is kind of an unknown. Again, for the future rotation, he has to produce at a pretty high level to be in the running after this season. It will be interesting to watch how this plays out after losing two starters, Ryu and Hill.
One thing should be watched carefully, and that is how do these pitchers do when runs scored by our offense is at a standstill? We should have some dominant offensive production for many games but that is not how we should be judging our pitchers who wind up the win. Did they earn it? Many fans don’t care how we get the win.