- So, lots of times when trades are made, it’s because one team see somthing in a player that they believe they can “fix.” The Cubs signed Jason Hayward thinking they could “fix” his swing… they couldn’t. When the Tigers got JD Martinez he was already “fixing” his swing and they thought they could help… they did. On case worked, the other didn’t! The Gerrit Cole trade is a case where the Astros think they can “fix” Cole, by changing his pitch selection and adding a changeup, while the Pirates Ray Searage thinks he can “fix” Musgrove and Felix. The Pirates also believe that Moran and Martin will be very good players. Moran will likely even start at 3B THIS year.
- Some Dodger fans say “Well the Dodgers could have put together a better package.” A better package according to who? You don’t know how these teams value your players or how FAZ values Dodger prospects. Neither do I! I get tired of fans saying “The Dodgers could have easily beaten that package of players” when they have no clue how the other team values the Dodgers players. That’s moronic. Sure, the Dodgers could have beaten it, but the Dodgers’ system is much deeper and they are intent on keeping it that way. Houston has a window of opportunity that will close somewhat after 2018.
- Who will “fix” their players? Will the Astros fix Cole? Or will the Pirates “fix Musgrove and Felix? Maybe they will all be “fixed” or maybe none will be fixed. Some scouts think Cole can be an Ace. Others think he will regress even more in the AL. Time will tell.
- I have been willing to trade Alvarez for a while. FAZ hasn’t. I suspect they have a lot more insight into his body and soul than I do. More than you too! Hopefully, the trade works out for both teams. The Astros did not give up what they regard as their Top Prospects, but Martin and Moran were Top Prospects – just not ones they were loathe to trade, like Tucker, et al. Evidently the Pirates wanted more than the Dodgers were willing to give up. It’s likely as simple as that!
- We know that San Diego was considering Eric Hosmer… and maybe they will get him, but it they don’t they sure missed a great opportunity to bring back Adrian Gonzalaez who lives in San Diego. If he’s healthy, it would have been a great thing for him and the Padres. It was a chance they both should have taken. It just makes sense. The Mets aren’t going anywhere either.
- If the Dodgers sign Yu Darvish, I could see them trading Wood and Grandal…. even Forsythe, if they get Yelich (long-shot) Just saying… Sell high!
- The Giants could have gotten better yesterday. If everything goes right for them, they could be tough, but EVERYTHING has to go right and they have a lot of Old Bodies. They might win 85 games.
- Dan Szymborski of ESPN.com has a column on players who may “breakout” in 2018. Christain Yelich is atop that list and he compares Yelich to Joey Votto and Will Clark and expects to see him put up that kind of season. He also lists Danny Salazar as a breakout candidate. I happen to agree with both of those players. The next player he picks as a breakout candidate is one Joc Pederson – yeah, THAT Joc Pederson:
Pederson had a fairly miserable 2017 season, even earning him a stint for Oklahoma City (and typing that, it still feels weird that the Dodgers’ Triple-A franchise isn’t in Albuquerque). A lot of his offensive woes have to do with his .241 BABIP. ZiPS thinks he should have had a .296 BABIP in 2017 based on his hit ball profile and while he has underperformed the ZiPS BABIP in the past by about 15 points in his first two seasons, even a .280 BABIP would have put his OPS+ around 115-120 rather than 95.
The largest flaw in Pederson’s offensive game has been his plate discipline, but his overall weak season camouflaged his progress on that front. He swung at a lower rate of out-of-zone pitches than he did in either 2015 or 2016 and set a career high for swinging at the in-zone ones. Despite a career-high in overall swing rate, his swinging strike rate dropped to 9.5 percent, actually better than the league-average, a first for him. Two years ago it was at 14 percent.
Key breakout stat: 28 percent shot at a new career high for OPS+
Discussion (29)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Looking at that chart, it appears to me MLB might want to reconsider having 2 teams in Florida! Time to move one to Charlotte or Portland.
Here an itemization of operating income. The Dodgers actually lost $20 million.
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https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall
Here’s the best article that I have read on the reason that free agents aren’t being signed and how the money thing works in baseball now.
https://sports.yahoo.com/heres-baseballs-economic-system-might-broken-224638354.html
When 1/3 of the teams have decided to tank before the season starts then there is no place for free agents to go. Trying to lose should not be allowed. The minimum salary floor needs to be reconsidered. Teams shouldn’t be getting money from the league or from the “competitive balance tax” if they aren’t going to spend it on players. Teams like the Dodgers shouldn’t be penalized when there are guys like Derek Jeter who stand to make $6 MM for blowing up his team and being as bad as possible.
Esteban,
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There’s a difference between not being a fan and not liking him. I think the Dodgers paid to much for him and he was not a great leader, but he was a good guy and hard worker. He helped Puig a lot, I like him, but didn’t love him. He was a very good player and I would have thought he might want to end his career in San Diego.
I agree with you Mark on CF defense rankings. I just am not a Pederson fan. Never have been one. At best he is a platoon player. It is either a HR or KO. I just think we can do better. I would like someone who can play LF every day. That is why I hope for Toles or Verdugo.
1. Taylor
2. Yelich
3. Toles
4. Pederson
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My Ranking of Centerfielder Defense.
Stuff from around:
1. Old friend Willie Calhoun is now the TOP PROSPECT in the Ranger system. Let’s hope he does great.
2. Interesting column in today’s NYPost about Adrian Gonzalez and how he’s not necessarily well-loved in the baseball dugout.
3. mlb.com predicts the Astros and Dodgers as the best teams for the coming season.
4. Sickels’ blog takes a look at Dodgers sleeper prospect, Caleb Ferguson.
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/1/9/16869616/sleeper-prospect-caleb-ferguson-lhp-los-angeles-dodgers
5. Bryce Harper is 5 months younger than Aaron Judge.
If we like a player we see more of the good, if we have given up on a player we see the bad. Many have said that Joc still swings hard at everything. Joc just needs to put a whole season together.
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I would love to see both Joc and Yelich in the Dodger outfield. The Dodgers want a full time center fielder. Joc needs to hit lefties better before the Dodgers will want to put him back in CF. If he does, I think Taylor will move to second base, but not before.
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I have said several times before when I was being serious that the Dodgers are already good and don’t need to do anything more. If they sign Darvish though, I suspect Grandal and Forsythe could be traded. To get Yelich, my preference would be to trade Puig to make room for Yelich’ salary. I don’t think Puig would go to Miami because of Donnie.
Good takes, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I don’t think the Dodgers were ever in on Cole and certainly not Cutch. Even though it’s been a slow off season there have been some big trades and LOTS of FA have not signed. Aside from the big names look who is still out there for a bargain signing:
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Starters: Buchholz, Cashner, Colon, Dickey, Feldman, Garcia, Garza, Hellickson, Jiminez, Lackey, Liriano, Miley, Nolasco, Norris, Peavy, Sanchez, Tillman, Vargas, Volquez.
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Relievers: Axford, Benoit, Cahill, Chavez, Clippard, Collmenter, de la Rosa, Duensing, Feliz, Grilli, Perez, Perkins, Qualls, K-Rod, Rosenthal, Siegrist, Storen, Street, Uehara, Watson, Travis Wood.
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Big Names: Bautista, Melky Cabrera, Duda, Espinosa, Frazier, Carlos Gomez, Cargo, JJ Hardy, Holliday, Austin Jackson, Lind, Lucroy, Montero, Napoli, Nunez, Peralta, Phillips, Reyes, Reynolds, Suzuki, Walker, Werth.
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I see why it is difficult to move Kemp with so many others still out there. Same with Grandal and Ryu. The Dodgers have enough room to add a couple more players, maybe a SP and RP if they choose to and the price is right. But they don’t NEED to. Still the bargain nature of the market has to be making them think about it.
Most fans overhype their own prospects and are underwhelmed with their perceived value of other team’s prospects. I am as guilty of that as anyone, maybe moreso. And while I do believe that the Dodgers could have put together a better package, I know FAZ would not have. There is a big difference in could and would. To your point, Pittsburgh wanted ML or ML ready cost controlled players, and got three for sure, with a potential 4th in Jason Martin. Musgrove and Feliz will be on the 25 man for sure, but with David Freese on the roster, I do not think Moran will start for the Pirates, at least initially.
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Timing is also critical in looking at the trade. The Pirates thought they had 3B under control with Jung Ho Kang, but he is no longer on the roster, and probably will never be again. The Pirates had two 3B in their Top 30 prospects, Ke’Bryan Hayes (20) and Oneal Cruz (19), neither of whom will be able to replace Freese in 2019. Moran fills that hole, a hole the Dodgers could not have filled. The Dodgers do not have any potential 3B until Cristian Santana starts to move through the organization. No, neither Rios or Beaty are legit 3B candidates. Both probably belong in the AL.
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The Dodgers also do not have a surplus of ML ready OF that other teams’ desire. Verdugo and Diaz are not going anywhere unless some other team wants to overpay. Kendall is too much of an unknown. He could be a star or he could be a bust. So that would leave Heredia as the highest valued OF to compare to Martin. Comps to Musgrove (25) and Feliz (24) could be Stewart (26)/Stripling (28) and Baez (29). But the age difference is significant. So again to your point, if the Pirates were looking at a ML ready 3B, a close to ML ready young OF (at least AA), a young 5th/6th starter /long reliever and a young power reliever…no, the Dodgers could not have matched that. They would have to overpay with pitching or higher rated OF, which they would not do for a #4 SP.
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I still think the Astros stole Cole because who they traded were not needed by the Astros (in 2018) as much as the need for a reliable #4 innings eater. Cole may have been the Pirates #1, but he is not an Ace. He will slide in behind Keuchel, Verlander, and McCullers, and before Morton. Moran is blocked by Bregman. The loss of Musgrove and Feliz will be offset with the addition of two seasoned vets, Hector Rondon and Joe Smith, and with Colin McHugh and Brad Peacock going to the bullpen fulltime. Pittsburgh knew they could not compete in 2018 even with Cole, so they also did well with the addition of three players ready to help this year, and one more perhaps by 2019. Both teams accomplished what they wanted to do.
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I think the McCutcheon trade is another example where both teams helped themselves, and something the Dodgers could not have done. I like what the Pirates did more than the Giants, because McCutcheon does not make the Giants a contender in 2018 (IMO), which is what they wanted to accomplish. Reynolds and Crick will both help the Pirates in 2019 more than Cutch will. If the Pirates thought they could contend in 2018, they would not have traded Cutch.
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More importantly for the Giants, with less than $5M to spend and stay under luxury tax, they cannot make any other significant additions, and if anyone gets hurt, where do they go? Their bench and farm are desolate. Their bench is Kelby Tomlinson, Nick Hundley, Jarrett Parker, Mac Williamson, and Panda. If any of Panik/Crawford/Tomlinson go down, who replaces them? If Posey or Hundley go down, who replaces them? Those are the only two catchers on the 40 man, and they have one prospect (Aramis Garcia) who is at least a year away. Their #4 & #5 are Ty Blach and Chris Stratton with only Tyler Beede as a potential replacement for any of the starting pitchers. After Melancon/Dyson/Smith/Gearin/Strickland, their bullpen is horrid. They will have to pick 2 from Law/Okert/Osich. Everything has to go right, and everybody has to stay healthy for the Giants to reach .500.