Preliminary Top 10 Dodger Prospects

maybe stripling will come back and save the day

i hope everyone has a tank of oxygen on hand for when Baez comes in to save tonight’s game.

Well, I was wrong! Here is the actual lineup for today:

Joc

JT

Manny

Muncy

Belli

Kike (2b)

Grandal

Puig

Kersh

Dozier is hitting 196 since he came to this team, and he is hitting 0.40, in his last 7 games.

But since it is at Coors, his power will probably be to mesmerizing for the guys making this line up, to not put him in this line up.

So I think Bobby probably has the line up, right.

Today’s a rightie. Since Doc is as predictable as the sky is blue, here is my call on today’s lineup:

Joc

Turner

Manny

Belly

Dozier

Grandal

Muncy

Puig

Kersh

In Nassim Taleb’s book, “Black Swan,” he talks about how options have value even if they aren’t exercised. For example, if someone invites you to a party tonight, that’s something you can stick in your back pocket even if you decide not to go. The fact that you have that possibility is in itself a form of social wealth and you’re better off for having it.

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The Dodgers’ organization obviously shares this view. Last year, it was widely acknowledged that our depth, organizational talent, and wild manipulation of the active roster (due to disabled list stints, claims, etc.) helped us to near-record breaking regular season; in fact, despite fan concerns, this momentum carried into the playoff where we nearly swept our way to the World Series–and that’s where I’m comfortable stopping this train of thought.

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This year, however, it’s possible we have TOO many options. The man in charge of making all these decisions is fallible, and it’s easy to focus on him when we are failing. Like him or not, he really is in charge of what team we see out there on a daily basis and his stubbornness in certain areas [like adhering to strict RH/LH platoons, favoring slumping “favorites,” and endless bullpen experimentation] leaves him open to criticism, deserved or not.

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In thinking about the lineup that he SHOULD put out for tonight’s game, I’m ignoring the handedness of the pitcher [RH, with two LHPs going on Sat/Sun] and simply listing the realistic possibilities he’s facing BEFORE we even get into where they all bat. As you can see, it’s a lot to process, and that’s without even considering rest, health, and individual pitcher/batter match-ups.

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[Feel free to correct me here]

C–Grandal or Barnes. Will definitely be Grandal with Barnes possibly [likely?] starting either of the next two games

1B–Muncy, Bellinger or Freese [no more Keekay at 1b since Freese’s addition]. Likely Muncy since Bellinger can play CF

2B–Dozier, Utley, Keekay, Taylor, Muncy. I’m betting on Utley here though Keekay makes sense too. In light of our defensive issues, maybe Keekay is the smart play.

SS–Machado, Taylor or Keekay. Definitely Machado, Might not sit another game this season.

3B–Turner or Freese. Turner, open and shut case.

LF–Kemp, Joc, Taylor, Verdugo, Toles. See what I mean? You choose. I’m not positive I want Kemp patrolling the Coors Field outfield but it’s tough to sit him. I don’t think Roberts is scared or a coward but it’s a tough call.

CF–Bellinger, Taylor, Keekay, Verdugo, Toles. A lot depends on Muncy playing 1b. Probably Bellinger

RF–Puig, Kemp, Keekay, Verdugo. Puig is back and will be in the lineup. I think there is some pressure on him to produce.

Houston Mitchell of the Times on Grandal:

“I don’t care how great a pitch framer he is, it doesn’t make up for his other defensive deficiencies. He is in the bottom half of the league in errors, passed balls and caught stealing percentage.”

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Given his streaky offensive performance and his other defensive deficiencies, do the Dodgers want to make a qualifying offer?

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Same question with Ryu. Did you know that he’s only pitched in 11 games all year and has only thrown 58 innings? After 126 innings in 2017, 4 innings in 2016 and no innings in 2015. In 5 years under contract with the Dodgers he has pitched 533 innings.

I wish we had more people in the Dodger’s organization, that thought like AC.

Because power alone, with a bunch of strike outs, is not necessarily something, that is rare.

Think about some of the players that some teams could have missed out on, because they didn’t hit a ton of HRs in the minors, like Mookie Betts, and Francisco Lindor.

These two are probably two of the most talented players in all of baseball, and they are hitting plenty of HRs, at the major league level.

But these two are so talented on both sides of the field, and possess enormous talent, beyond just hitting HRs.

some leftover thoughts:

carlos rincon has really flipped the switch. is it real?

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i guess we need to slow down the “urias-to-the-rescue” hype train a bit. depending on him to pitch high leverage innings in the playoffs is looking less and less likely. shade of buehler last year.

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paredes is still plugging along. we need to do him a solid and trade him to another org. i think he’s a major league guy on a lower division team.

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is toles in the doghouse?

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can’t wait to see tonight’s lineup and everyone’s reaction to it. i think this team has a lot of talent and a lot of problems. in dave roberts defense, it’s hard to know whom to play because our offense is so unpredictable. i do know we need to come out swinging in coors. that team has some offensive firepower and 3 runs ain’t gonna cut it. i think roberts should blow everyone’s mind and play muncy at catcher 🙂

I think the prospects the Dodgers will most likely keep are Smith, Lux, and May. Therefore I will put them in the top 3 without ranking them.

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Puig and Kemp will be gone next year. The outfielders will be Pederson, Verdugo, Toles, Hernandez, and Bellinger.

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Barnes and Smith will be the catchers for awhile starting in 2019 unless FAZ trades Ruiz and Puig for Realmudo. That would give Smith another year at AAA before moving up to the Dodgers.

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The Dodgers will trade White for Wheeler as I think Wheeler will be an Arb 3 player under Mets control in 2019.

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Kemp and Santana will be traded for a stud reliever and the amount of Kemp’s salary the Dodgers keep will determine how studly that reliever is. That trade would also let the Dodgers go after either Machado or Harper.

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2019 rotation:

Kershaw, Buehler, Wheeler, Wood, Stripling

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Hill will be traded to the Yankees for one of their relievers.

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Ryu and Grandal will not be offered a QO because the Dodgers learned that players will accept them if offered. FAZ will offer Ryu a contract as a free agent however, but at less cost than the QO would require.

3 in Colorado, 3 in Cincinnati, and 4 in StL. This is NOT an easy trip, especially without Kenley for the first 3. I would be satisfied if we could go 6-4, but I’d prefer some of those 6 wins come in Colorado! 2 game swings for 3 days, so we need to show up.

Kersh, Buehler, Wood go in Colorado.

Quas – I’ve always considered playing at Coor’s Field an ‘E’ coupon ride… Hard for me to watch while I sneak a peek once in awhile…

P.S. Their beer sucks too!!!

I really hate Coors Field. Especially so when Dodgers need to sweep there to come out of this series with a lead. On a wing and a prayer getting away without injuries from that mess they call a ballpark. But it is possible to get a sweep though I have to admit I’ll be close to satisfied just winning the series. Anything short of that won’t do. Maybe time has come for Roberts to realize his methods aren’t exactly what a doctor should order. DR, if it isn’t working it’s in need of fixing. This isn’t just on the players.

The good news is we didn’t lose tonight.

DJ Peters is a real longshot. I put him there as a roll of the dice. He has great power be a long swing and he will have to adjust or he will be the next Kyle Russell or Billy Ashley. But, he could be Jayson Werth if he can evolve. Don’t hold your breath.

You guys took all the good choices. I’m just checking in. I expect it depends on how one looks at prospects. For me every player is a prospect until he isn’t. Is the 10, 20, 30 list compiled on the bases of past or current performance, their drafting position or how close they are considered to be to MLB?

Maybe it is on the bases of the current skill set and how that set projects in the future. That is, will velocity be added, plate coverage improved, a change up improved, etc.

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For me it is a bit more subjective but still pretty much mainstream as I don’t have much to add to what Mark and AC provided, especially with their notes on prospects.

1. Keibert Ruiz – His age at the AA level and maturity, plus I like catchers who have the most difficult

job in all of team sports.

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2. Gavin Lux – so much to like as he broke out this year with the Quakes and continued with the Drillers.

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3. Dustin May

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4. Dennis Santana

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5. Tony Gonsolin – who would have guessed this going into the 2018 season?

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6. Mitchell White

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7. Will Smith

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8. Omar Estevez – Only 20 and had a very good season. He lead the league with 43 doubles, was sixth in hits, first with 87 runs, third in RBI behind Santana and Thomas, third in total bases again behind Santana and Thomas. The choice of Estevez before Santana also based on leading Santana in batting average, OBP, OPS, SLG and well ahead with 45 walks.

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9 Christian Santana

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10. Marshall Kasowski – one of my personal favorites as is Estevez.

Others to watch not mentioned by Mark or AC.

Stephen Kolek – RHP

Austin Drury – LHP

Bryan Warzek – LHP

Damn shame you can’t fire the players!!!

Thanks AC again for your input…

And we will still hear the haters bashing FAZ for not signing Morrow, regardless of his injury history. If you have noticed over the last few years, very very few players the Dodgers either trade or don’t resign have very much success with other teams. I think FAZ does way more research than we give them credit for.

BTW, it has been reported that Brandon Morrow most likely is done for the year. He has not pitched off a mound since July 18 and has logged 30.2 innings. $10.5 Million!

Not much comment on last nights disappointing display.

The same old problems were evident again against good Pitching, which is of course what would encounter in Post Season play.

Been waiting for the Offense to click into some kind of collective form, but unfortunately, it seems impossible for them to adapt their approach which I guess has become ingrained over the season.

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It seems incredible to me that a player with little power like Taylor, would feel the necessitie to swing out of his shoes at every Atbat regardless of the situation. He had become a strike out machine.

Grandal is the same. No concept of how to adapt.

The reluctance to bring up Verdugo & Toles to bring a different but complimentary skill set is baffling.

To bench Machado last night is inexplicable.

It seems that there is no urgency from top to bottom.

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Our schedule is tough. Too tough the way we are playing.

If I were the Dodgers, I would move Wong to 2B. Moving WONG is the RIGHT move.

in terms of the postseason this year, i will say this: if we don’t get in, we didn’t deserve to get in. there’s no part of me that will play “woulda coulda shoulda”–if we’re not good enough to be among the last 10 teams standing, we didn’t deserve to get there in the first place.

Top ten teams are tough to put together for us novices because most of us do not have the time or tools to properly scout all of the prospect pool, so it often becomes more of a focus on favorites. Another factor is that what may be important to me, may not be as important to the decision makers.

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I am going to switch #1 and #2 from Mark. I am going with Gavin Lux as #1. Lux has improved so much that he should also crack several MLB Top 50 lists next pre-season. He was a Post Season All Star in California League even though he was promoted on August 1. He had enough PA to qualify as #3 in Batting Average and #3 in OBP in the Cal League. But he did not slow down once he hit AA. He maintained his BA at .324 in 120 PA. His OBP went up slightly in AA to .408, and his slugging went down slightly to .495. He still had an OPS of over .900 as a leadoff hitter. His overall batting line in 2018 was .324/.399/.514/.913. He has a strikeout rate of 16.7%, which I believe he can still make improvements on. He had 15 HR’s and he really does not need more than that as a leadoff hitter. His .400 OBP is far more important. He had only 5 GDP, so while he may not steal many bases (13), he does stay out of DP’s. He did run more at Great Lakes, but the de-emphasis on the stolen base as the players climb closer to MLB is a consideration for this skill.

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Defensively, he has made too many errors. Most of his errors are due to the throw. One, a better defensive 1B will improve his numbers, and two, a switch to 2B should improve that number as well. If I were King of the Dodgers, I would have Lux spend November with Chase Utley learning to play 2B, go home for the holidays, and then come back to LA in January to train with Utley and the Dodgers big leaguers. I know that Jacob Amaya trains at Dodger Stadium during the winter with many Dodgers ML players, including a lot with JT. I believe Lux starts at AAA and will get a September 2019 callup. He should be on the LAD 25 man in 2020.

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Remaining Top 10.

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1. Gavin Lux

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2. Keibert Ruiz – Once Will Smith was promoted, Ruiz increased his productivity. I have not seen enough of Ruiz catching, but I did not like David Hood’s comments that he looked lazy behind the plate in the late season game stretch he was in attendance and observing. But that was small sample size and many reasons could explain that. He has never come across as lazy when I watched. Besides the comments Mark made above, he has a very astute baseball mind.

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3. Dustin May – With the development of his cutter, May now has 3 solid pitches in his repertoire. He is working on his change, and if he can make that into a plus pitch (55), he will have 4 pitches he can use. That makes him a starting pitcher, and he should contend for the rotation by 2020.

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4. Dennis Santana – Right now he is still a 2 pitch pitcher (fastball & slider), which makes him more of a bullpen prospect than a SP. The two pitches are plus (fastball plus plus), and if he can come up with a 3rd pitch, he will be a strong contender for a rotation. I would like to see Santana become the Jose Leclerc as the prominent setup to Kenley Jansen, and ready to step in. I do believe Santana has a closer mentality.

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5. Will Smith – I still believe Smith will be a ML regular catcher. I think his versatility has hurt his maturation and development as a catcher. I think it destroyed Farmer’s. Smith’s defense is top shelf, and his offense should at least be MLB average.

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6. Mitchell White – While I do believe White has a higher ceiling than any of the other pitchers, his troubles this year naturally moves him down the list. White already has 3 pitches rated a 55 or greater, including two at 65 (fastball and slider). If White improves his change to just be league average, he will have 4 pitches he can call on. I like him in the rotation in 2020 with May.

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7. Marshall Kasowski – If anyone gleans anything from my writing, you would know how important I value the bullpen. In three levels in 2018, Kasowski has amassed 64.2 IP and has accumulated 111 strikeouts. His three level ERA was 2.09, including a 2.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at Tulsa. Right now he does walk too many batters, but his command should improve with experience. He still needs that secondary off-speed pitch to make him dominant, but with his deceptive delivery, he should continue to put up big numbers. I think he has a chance to become a middle reliever at MLB next year, and once his secondary pitch improves, he should become a late inning high leverage reliever.

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8. Tony Gonsolin – With the development of his splitter, Gonsolin now has 3 pitches rated 55 or better with two being rated as 60 (fastball and splitter). His curve is 55 and his change is rated a 50. That is 4 pitches average or better. Over two levels, Gonsolin put up 128 IP and accumulated 155 strikeouts. His two level ERA was 2.60 and his WHIP was 1.14. I think Gonsolin is a prime starting candidate to assume a role in relief next year. He could very well become the 2019 version of Caleb Ferguson.

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9. Cristian Santana – Cristian Santana has a chance to become very good offensive player. He is going to need to cut back on his strikeouts (25%). He led the Cal league in HR’s (tied) and RBI’s, but his batting average of .274 and OBP of .302 needs significant improvement. His batting average did improve quite a bit once Rylan Bannon was traded and he was able to reclaim his 3B position. Improved pitch recognition will help tremendously in his approach. Better pitchers will keep the ball out of the zone for him as he has a tendency to swing at anything close.

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10. Gerardo Carrillo – At 18, Carrillo is already a pitcher with tremendous poise. He has three pitches 55 or better, with good command. This was his first year in the U.S. and he dominated the AZL Rookie League. He bypassed Ogden and went directly to Great Lakes, where he was equally impressive even if not as dominant. The reason he is not as well regarded is because of his size. He is 6’0” and 154 pounds. He is going to need to build himself up so he has the stamina to go deep into the game consistently. At 18, Julio Urias spent time with 4 teams including OKC. Carrillo cannot duplicate that, but he should not be far behind.

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I did not include DJ Peters because while he had a Texas League leading 29 HRs, he only generated 60 RBI’s. Not a lot of multi run HR’s or clutch hitting. He struck out 192 times at AA (35% K rate) with only a .236 batting average, and that was due to a big final week. If he can cut down his strikeout rate considerably, he should rise very quickly on the prospect list. But too many strikeouts for me.

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Need more time to evaluate:

John Rooney

Edwin Uceta

Diego Cartaya

Michael Grove

Braydon Fisher

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Some I wish were higher prospects:

Omar Estevez

Ronny Brito

Jacob Amaya

Jeremy Arocho

Melvin Jimenez

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I guess I like the importance of middle infielders as I do relief pitching..

Since I”m not a minor league expert (or major league expert, for that matter), I’ll give my list based on who I’m most excited about (I won’t include Ferguson, who I eventually see as the #3 or absolutely dominant #4 starter for 10 years for us, or Verdugo, who I hope to God we don’t trade!)

1) Lux. I think he fits perfectly leading off for 10 years for us. I see a high obp, great speed, and a lot of extra base hits. Move him to 2b now and let him get used to being there until 2030

2) May. I think he has the highest ceiling of the pitchers. He’ll eventually be in that mix for the 3/4 spot with Ferguson (I expect Buehler to be 1 and Kersh/Urias to be 2)

3) Ruiz: So far it looks good, but I’ll wait until AFL and next year for some significant improvement to push him higher. I’m sure part of his avg stats are his youth, which is totally justified. Next year he’ll be 20/21, so could be a monster year for him.

4) Gonsolin: dude will be ready next season to be the dude who goes from OKC to LA 11 times for spot starts, or he could find himself in that Stripling role of 2 years ago, awaiting his turn to start.

liberatore released per mlbtraderumors

Quote ” I will not put Ruiz as my #1 Prospect. ” 1. Keibert Ruiz – C ????????

You get a good narrative like this and it seems the usual daily doom & gloom wins out… Come on guys and gals, this is our future…

I had the privilege of seeing K. Ruiz for a cup of coffee at Rancho and he’s as good as I’ve seen… Carries himself similar to Seager… Word is he’s teachable and that’s a great thing… So many of entitled kids lack that…

Besides that, dude has moves behind the dish…

DJ Peters, it’s a shame!!! So many OF’s , so few spots…

good list. while i’m a firm believer that we don’t know as much as people within the organization, i do have opinions on guys and am willing to offer them if given the opportunity.

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looking at that list, my first reaction is that will smith is too low, possibly far too low. i know grove makes us dream on buehler 2.0 and gonsolin had a breakout year, but there is no way i’d rank those too higher than smith, even though he struggled in his first taste of AAA.

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second thought is that mitch white might be too high, although i’m sure the organization still likes him a lot and is working hard to iron out his issues. i’m mostly concerned with his ability to stay out on the field.

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i’d probably put peters ahead of c. santana but they each have things to work on. peters is just more advanced and more athletic. somehow i’d like to sneak uceta on the list.

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good starting point for a discussion though. ferguson might’ve been the prospect story of the year. and d. santana was looking like the goods before he was derailed. i’m hoping for big things from him next year, even if it’s in a relief capacity.

Great disclaimer.