Positional Gaps in the Organization

The strength of the Farm system is unquestionably the pitching. It is not even close. The breakdown of the MLB Pipeline Top 30 prospects is:

12 – RHP
2 – LHP
4 – Catchers
5 – SS/2B
4 – 3B/1B
3 – OF

Baseball America pretty much resembles MLB Pipeline’s prospect list except BA includes reliever Josh Sborz, and OF Carlos Rincon, replacing Braydon Fisher, Marshall Kasowski, and Leonel Valera. BA cheated and included Caleb Ferguson.

Using MLB Pipeline as the standard, of the pitching prospects, two are #2 – #3 rotation types, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin. There is one established reliever, Marshall Kasowski. There is one that is getting close, but probably will follow Caleb Ferguson to the bullpen, Dennis Santana. There is one that has a lot of hype, but has not yet pitched in a professional game, Michael Grove. Then there are the wait and see pitchers. Mitchell White and Yadi Alvarez have all the pitches, but just cannot seem to put it together…YET. The other pitching prospects are further down the organizational ladder, but one, two, three should make it. As a starter or reliever, we just do not know yet.

Josiah Gray, Edwin Uceta, Braydon Fisher, Gerardo Carrillo, John Rooney (LHP), Robinson Ortiz (LHP), and Zach Willeman. Of this group, perhaps the most intriguing is RHP Zach Willeman. Zach is yet another TJ surgery survivor, has 4 plus pitches, and looks to get fully untracked this year. He is currently assigned to AZL, meaning he is in extended ST.

Behind that 14, there are others who will rise, as well as future drafts and international signings. With Buehler, Urias, Kershaw, Maeda, and Stripling ready to assume the rotation for 2020/2021, May, Gonsolin, White, Santana, Grove, ready to challenge, and another 5 to follow. Who stays in a starting role, and who moves to the bullpen, is the pitching story line, not whether there is enough pitching.

When FAZ first ascended onto the Dodger scene, catching was abysmal both at the MLB and MiLB level. Austin Barnes was acquired via trade with the Fish to help bolster the MiLB catchers. Then the Kemp for Grandal trade. Keibert Ruiz was signed before they arrived, but nobody figured that he would develop as he has. Now with Barnes back to doing what he has always done (hit), and with his vastly improved defense, starting catching at the MLB level is fine. Will Smith was drafted in 2016, Connor Wong was drafted in 2017, Diego Cartaya was signed in 2018, giving LAD 4 top catching prospects in their top 14. Hunter Feduccia was drafted in 2018. There are multiple additional catchers throughout the organization. Catching is good and deep. I think we will see the Dodgers continue to draft catchers.

The next position the Dodgers have some depth this year is with the middle infielders. I was at the time and still am upset that the Dodgers did not draft Bo Bichette over Gavin Lux, but with the year that Lux had last year, he is minimizing the sting. He has all of the physical tools to stay at SS, but more than a few talent evaluators look for him to move to 2nd where his throws would be better suited. He has the range and speed to be a plus defender and is a good base runner. Lux looks as if he could be in a position to contend for a ML job in 2020.

The Dodgers have been after Jeter Downs since he was drafted. He was scouted quite a bit in 2018 in the Midwest League, and when the Reds were willing to include Downs in the Farmer trade, the Dodgers jumped. He does not have all of the physical tools that Lux has, but he is a good offensive player, and is more than adequate defensively. He may be SS for RC, but his long term position seems to be 2B.

Omar Estevez has been a much under the radar middle infielder. He is not flashy, and he seems to be passed over. He spent two years at RC well below the league average age, and after an acceptable 2017, he was sent back for 2018. He proceeded to have an outstanding 2nd half and lead the California League in doubles. He had a very good ST where he was obviously noticed. He is assigned to Tulsa and he joins Lux to make up the DP combo as the 2B. He is off to a good start offensively and should be gaining confidence with every AB.

Jacob Amaya is assigned to Great Lakes and may be the one middle infielder who can stay at SS all the way to the ML. He is gifted defensively, but like Downs, and Estevez, he will be a regular at the ML level or a utility infielder depending on his offense.

While Amaya could stick at SS, he is currently the 2B for Great Lakes because the 5th middle infielder of the top prospects is 19-year-old Venezuelan, Leonel Valera. Valera is also assigned to Great Lakes and has been the SS for the first two games. Valera was one of the unheralded international players in the 2015-2016 international signing period where the Dodgers incurred $166MM in international player contracts and taxes.

The Dodgers have a potential utility middle infielder/CF in Errol Robinson who is not in the top 30 this year. Deacon Liput (SS) and Devin Mann (2B) are at RC and may not be in the Top 30 prospects, but they could advance and be potential players to be watched.

Neither Lux or Estevez are ready to make the leap to ML, so the Dodgers have a pair of experienced middle infielders at OKC as just in case. I am very impressed with Daniel Castro as an emergency SS/2B. With Corey/CT3/Kike’ on the ML roster, the LAD are in good shape, but if one goes down, Castro seems primed to be able to move in. Castro and Angelo Mora are AF specialties to make the Dodgers a true 50-man roster.

The Dodgers have four 3B/1B candidates, but all have questions. The closest to the ML is soon to be 25-year-old Edwin Rios. He has worked hard on his defense and is at least a serviceable 3B. I know MT doubts his bat speed is enough for him to be an elite ML hitter, but he has made himself a quality hitter at the AAA level. A better bat to ball skills 3B/1B is Matt Beaty. He is one year removed from Texas League Player of the Year. Rios and Beaty are at AAA.

The other two 3B/1B prospects are a pair of international players. Cristian Santana a 22-year-old Dominican who is a 3B/1B currently assigned to AA. This will be a crucial year for Cristian. He is a genuine run producer but will need to improve his bat to ball skills and cut down on his strikeouts if he wants to be considered a legit ML prospect. The second international 3B/1B is 19-year-old Cuban, Miguel Vargas, who burst onto the scene last year. After toying with the Rookie Leagues last year, he is currently assigned to Great Lakes. He is at least 3 years away but has a chance to make a name for himself is his continued development. Further down the prospect organizational ladder is Luke Heyer, who is also assigned to Great Lakes.

The 3B/1B candidates will only go as far as their bats take them. None are potential GG candidates, so they are going to need to show their offensive chops. Currently the Dodgers do not have a true potential candidate to relieve JT after next year. They will need one of Rios/Beaty/Santana/Vargas to make the leap. They have potential, but they have questions, and I would consider this a positional gap.

The biggest question marks the Dodgers have is in the OF. There is a reason why the Dodgers have 4 AAAA OF at OKC, three of which came from outside the organization, and have no chance to be LAD regulars. The one who has been in the organization since he was drafted by LAD in 2015 is 27-year-old Kyle Garlick. Kyle has potential power, but his ceiling is as a #4 or #5 OF. Not as talented as Trayce Thompson but may go further with better drive.

The next closest OF is 23-year-old power hitting OF, DJ Peters. One of the most prolific power bats in all of MiLB, but also one with waaaaaaay too many strikeouts. After leading the Texas League in HRs in 2018, DJ was again assigned to Tulsa where hopefully he will improve his bat to ball skills. The Dodgers love power, so DJ will get a long look. He is also an above average defensive OF. He has received comparisons to Jayson Werth, but also to Billy Ashley.

Former first round draft choice, Jeren Kendall, is also repeating the same level as he did in 2018, High A. Kendall is a ML defender and potential GG CF right now. But he has huge holes in his swing which makes very little sense with the speed he has. If he learned to slow things down and to make contact, he can be a better player than Billy Hamilton. But if he does not make the adjustments he will wash out just like 2015 2nd round draft pick Mitchell Hansen.

Alex Verdugo is still considered a prospect until he sticks at the ML level. He looks to be someone who will stick with the Dodgers OF this year. How may PA’s he gets will depend a lot on how Joc/CT3/Muncy play.

The least predictable and biggest positional gap is the OF. The Dodgers have not been very successful at drafting “can’t miss” OF.

The Dodgers have a lot of potential even without drafting lower than 20th since 2013. Of the Top 30 prospects 17 have come via the draft, while 11 have been international signings, and 2 have come via trades. The Dodgers are going to need to continue to draft players they believe they can develop rather than positional. They can fill in with international signings but have more than enough talent in their Farm to make quality trades as they did to acquire Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. I look for them to continue to pound out pitching, because that is the highest commodity in demand by most teams. If the Dodgers need a RH bat, they have a lot of talent to make a deadline trade. I would prefer that they get someone with multiple years of control if they want to unload top pitching talent. If they want a rental like Nick Castellanos, it should not take top pitching talent. Lottery picks like what Detroit got for JDM is much more likely than top 10 pitching.

Overall, they are loaded at pitching and catching, and more than adequate at middle infield. They have good depth at 3B/1B but with just as many questions. But they have very little other than Verdugo ready for the OF. Peters could be there, but I am losing more and more faith in Jeren Kendall.

Minor League Firsts – 2019 by DC

The Loons were the first Dodger affiliate to take the field for the 2019 season squaring off with the Lake County Captains at 7:05 ADT on Thursday.

The Captains opened the season with seven players who rank among the top 30 Indians prospects, according to MLB.com, five of whom are still teenagers. The Lake County roster also includes three first round picks.

Some quotes from John Shoemaker’s pre-game interview.

“We try to move players through the system as quickly as possible.”

“It is better to be ready for an opportunity and not get it than get an opportunity and not be ready.”

“There is no shortcut to the big leagues. It is hard enough to get there when taking a direct route  and impossible when trying to take a short cut.”

“Everyone from the major league down is engulfed in the same hitting philosophy. Not all of the same drills but a similar
approach.”

A few firsts to open the season

First hitter 2019 – Jacob Amaya
First pitch thrown – RHP Stephen Kolek
First strikeout – Stephen Kolek
First hit – single by CF James Outman
First run scored – SS Gavin Lux (Drillers)
First RBI – 3B Cristian Santana Drillers)

Unfortunately the Loons came up short early with the score and on the field with two errors and an ill-advised throw to second base that resulted in a double steal. Four walks by Kolek and a passed ball did not help the cause.

It was announced that Alfredo Tavarez will work in relief during the 2019 season. The 6’5”/190-pound right-hander is know as “Jumbo”. He worked 3.1 scoreless innings stranding all three runners he . inherited . Joel Inoa and Justin Hagenman each tossed a scoreless inning. The Loons matched the Captains in hits but lost 4-0.

Back to AC. I will put something together for the Friday Minor League Report before too long. I will do my best to try and get the information out as timely as possible as I did the last two years. But this year seems to be more troublesome for me.

But for right now, the four teams split their games with OKC and RC winning to even their records at 1-1, but Tulsa and Great Lakes both going down to defeat for the second game.

OKC 4 – San Antonio Missions 3 (Brewers)

Tulsa – 4 – Arkansas Travelers 9 (Mariners)

RC 4 – Stockton Ports 3 (A’s)

Great Lakes 1 – Lake County Captains 6 (Indians)