Well…MLB players are expected to report July 1 to their home fields for COVID-19 testing and to initiate ST 2.0. Camp is due to begin July 3. As is usually the case with “normal” ST, pitchers and catchers will report first, with position players due to follow. It is expected that the players will report to ST on a staggered basis, and that they would be on the field at different times.
We already know that there will be multiple players, including Charlie Blackmon, who will not be participating due to positive COVID-19 tests. Those players are expected to follow quarantine protocols, and will not be allowed to report (or return) to the team until it is considered safe. Those protocols will be transparent once they are fully published. As a minimum, the requirement will be two negative tests 24 hours apart, no fever for 72 continuous hours, and a completed antibody test.
While MLB is due to begin regular season games either July 23 or July 24, it will not be the same game as we have experienced. There are a multitude of rule changes to consider as we embark on what is sure to be an adventurous 60 game schedule.
Teams will consist of a 60-man player pool. That player pool will be submitted no later than Sunday, June 28, at 12:00 Noon (PT). The transaction freeze will cease Friday, June 26 at 9:00 AM (PT). So where will Yasiel Puig be reporting? Consensus pick is San Francisco. I would not expect the Dodgers to pick up any unsigned FA before the season starts. I have no doubt that the LAD 60 man team will be superior to any other 60 man team, or at the very least, significantly deeper.
Only the players on the 40 man roster will be required to report to ST camp (if invited), while the remaining 20 players can be sent to an alternate site. Does this open up the possibility Bobby Miller and the other LAD 2020 draft signees will be sent to an alternate site to begin their development, and potentially be called on in an emergency? How about Robbie Peto? Does this give a carrot for AF to put in front of Landon Knack, Clayton Beeter, and Jared Vogel?
It will be interesting to see how teams view their 40-man rosters, because not all members of the 40-man roster need be invited to ST. But if they are not, they still need to be paid. I would expect a flurry of changes to the 40-man roster before the 60-man squad is submitted.
The season will start with 30-man rosters. The roster is due to be pared to 28 after two weeks, and to 26 after two additional weeks. The 26 man roster will stay intact through the end of the year. Players must be on the 26-man roster by September 15 to be eligible for the playoffs. Teams will be allowed to take up to three taxi squad members on road trips, but if they take three, one must be a catcher. Sure seems like a good way for Keibert Ruiz’s MLB career to begin. Or because of the short season do they go with a safer backup like Jose Lobaton or Rocky Gale?
The trade deadline will be August 31 for this year. That will give teams a little more than 30 games to determine their needs to go into the playoffs.
The injured list will be 10 days for pitchers and position players. The 60 day IL will be reduced to 45 days. There will be a COVID-19 inactive list that will have no stipulated time that a player must sit out.
The universal DH will be intact for 2020, with 2021 still undecided.
In game scouting will be allowed.
MLB can choose to move a team and playoffs to a neutral city, if it is deemed necessary for health concerns.
There is another COVID-19 change that is being considered. MLB is talking with Nashville about adopting two teams of unsigned players that will comprise an emergency pool. The players will make $400/week, and a team will need to pay a fee to Nashville if they sign any of the pool players.
Players who have underlying health concerns can opt out with full pay and service time. It has also been agreed on that the health concern is considered for a family member. This gives AJ Pollock reason to opt out because of his daughter, Maddie Mae, who is in a NICU bed in an Arizona hospital because she was born three months premature. I do not know him, but it cannot be easy to plan to play a game and put himself in a situation that could possibly hurt his daughter. My heart breaks for AJ, his wife, and daughter, and they are in my prayers every day. The last I have heard; he has not made a final decision. As it should be, that decision will be between the parents and the doctors.
What will Kenley Jansen and Scott Alexander decide. Doc has already stated that he will be in the dugout as manager.
The 60 game schedule will be comprised of 10 games against each of the other four teams in their division (40 games) and 20 games against the five teams in the opposing league’s same geographical division. Six of those 20 games will be against the team’s interleague rival, with the other 14 games to be determined. The best guess is that a team will play two interleague opponents three games, and two interleague opponents with four games.
Extra inning games will be played as they have been in MiLB. The player who made the last out the prior inning will start at 2B, and play will begin. As in any other case, that player could be a pinch runner. If that runner does score, it will be considered an unearned run for the pitcher. Does this give consideration for Terrence Gore to be on the roster?
There will be no limits on position players pitching, as has been discussed. The pitcher will be allowed to have a wet rag in his back pocket in lieu of licking fingers. The previously agreed on three-batter minimum rule per pitcher will be followed throughout the season.
Consideration is being given to suspending games that do not reach 5 innings due to inclement weather, and will be completed at a later date (if needed).
A very recent rule adoption is if a player, manager, or coach comes within six feet of an umpire to dispute a call, that player, manager, or coach is subject to suspension.
There is no change in the playoff structure. Three Division winners and two wild cards for each league. One game WC playoff. A best of five game LDS, a best of seven game LCS, and a best of seven game WS.
Some of the previously published COVID-19 related measures are:
- Players, coaches and support staff will be tested for COVID-19 every other day during Spring Training, the regular season and postseason.
- Players will receive temperature/symptom checks twice per day.
- Antibody testing will be conducted once per month.
- Social distancing will be encouraged as much as possible both on the field and off. Players and other team personnel not participating in the game will be sitting in the stands, at least six feet apart.
- Non-playing personnel must wear masks in the dugout and bullpen at all times.
- No pregame exchange of lineup cards.
- No celebratory contact (high-fives, fist bumps, hugs, etc.).
- No spitting or chewing of tobacco and/or sunflower seeds. Chewing gum is allowed.
- A ball will be thrown out once it has been touched by multiple players.
- Fights are strictly prohibited.
This is a historic and fluid scenario. It is entirely plausible that the season will not get out of ST, and it is also plausible that the season will continue uninterrupted as are the seasons in Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. There could be some adjustments along the way depending on how the situation unfolds. There will undoubtedly be additional COVID-19 positive tests and probably higher than usual roster changes. But even though I have admitted my “coolness” to accepting a 50-60 game season as legit, I will nevertheless be watching and rooting for my Dodgers no less than I have ever done previously.
GO BLUE
Discussion (122)
Disagree, not disagreeable
The anxiety from reactions to Covid-19—such as business shutdowns, stay-at-home orders, media exaggerations, and legitimate concerns about the virus—will extinguish at least seven times more years of life than can possibly be saved by the lockdowns,” James Agresti and Andrew Glen wrote in their study on the lockdowns published at Just Facts.
In their study, reviewed by psychiatrist and professor Joseph P. Damore Jr., M.D., Agresti and Glen sorted through multiple studies of the stress and anxiety caused by lockdowns, the health damage of stress and anxiety, and the coronavirus death rates between Scandinavian countries with different lockdown strategies. The researchers took the lowest possible estimate of years of life lost to lockdown stress and compared that with the highest possible estimate of years of life saved due to the lockdowns, and found the lockdowns severely wanting in terms of their health cost.”
So, I’m trying to get a handle on where this ST II takes place. I read players are working out at Camelback and Dodger Stadium but they have been limited to small groups in Arizona and individuals in LA. How many will be involved and how will this be organized?
I missed your comment Quas and had to scroll toward the top to find it. I too feel your pain and hope your friends here and baseball help keep your spirits up.
As we go back and forth with our perspectives on Covid and baseball it should not be forgotten that blogs like this one serve purposes than mere Dodger baseball. Thanks to all that make it good.
Come on Mark, why do you keep saying this virus is the same as the flu? We are at 120,000 and counting. As I mentioned yesterday, you can’t compare HK flu with Covid-19.
Does more testing lead to finding more cases, yes. However, what we are seeing right not is above beyond that. Two states expect to have their ICU’s at full capacity within a few weeks. Florida’s governor has said their increase in cases is not just because of more testing.
With regards to testing; we are doing a lot but need more. Look at what Iceland has done through the use of contact tracing as well as tracking variations of the virus. Yes, Iceland is a special case being an island nation with a small population. But all experts say we need something along the lines of 5-10 times testing to control outbreaks.
Glad to see the government saying there could be factor of 10 more cases. I’ve been saying this for awhile (and as recently as this past week). But hey, what do I know.
As for this being being media driven; guess I’ll channel my inner Bob Dylan;
“How many deaths will it take till he knows that to many people have died”
Sorry to hear about your losses, Quas. That’s horrible
Just driving up the traffic for Jeff!
So, maybe you can tell I am hanging out in airports today…. trying to get back to Indy.
Conclusion: lots of players will get the COVID-19. That is why they have such a large roster.
Prediction: no player will die, but some staff might.
So, you are telling me you would have shut down the economy for a disease that probably ends up killing about the same percentage as the flu? Really?
I think the states would have best spent their resources protecting the elderly in nursing homes and hospitals. They accounted for over half the deaths. Take those deaths out and the death toll is below that of the flu.
I’ll stop right there except to say What if 20X the people are infected?
Lots of dreams have crashed and burned – over 100,000 businesses closed
When the virus enters the conversation, and it has too when discussing how all of this will impact the game, politics will follow. It is a natural progression. If the season were in fact being played right now, I doubt politics rears it’s ugly head.
My recent barrage of anti political crapola taking over talking baseball stuff is probably is probably due the the Man, the Myth, the Legend Mark J. Timmons or a change in my pain meds..
Pity the players who put a lil bit between their cheek and gums and spit regularly.. Alot of masks
will suffer from forgetfulness..
Anyone out there venture a guess on what the line would be on ST ending???
11:29 A.M. Indiana time… From the subject who should be #6 to Mark J. Timmons entering the fray with the Corona Blues… Whats the big deal??? Only 122K… Indiana can be a lonely place…
My #6 goes to Nelson… Gotta check him out…
Agreed!
But it’s not the Killer we the ought. If we could have protected the nursing homes and hospitals the deaths would be half!
That is 100% on each state.
I guess I would watch, be cause it is baseball, and because one does need some respite from all the depressing or stressful news, even if one realizes that it should not be ignored. But of course it will be a makeshift season, almost in some sense like exhibitions, even if the games “count.” I don’t even know how the divisions will be configured; maybe they will stay the same, but a team in one division will play their non-division games with teams nearby. The schedules are never completely balanced now, but this will be even more skewed one way or another, because of exigency. Thus winning the title will mean less than it has for 120 years or more, even including 1942-1945, when so many players were overseas in combat, so that the Browns won the American League one year, and the Cubs won the National League in another.
Then of course, such a short season means a lot of potential aberration. It’s not a completely accurate comparison, but just think how many average teams get off to good starts in the first two months, while some of the better teams take time to gain momentum. How many wins will it take to win the division? 36? Imagine that about eight teams in each league will be in the race for division title or wild card on the last day of the regular season. Exciting, perhaps or gimmicked. Maybe the cream will rise to the top, and the Dodgers and Yankees will be in the World Series. Or maybe it will be the Reds and the Angels, or the Diamondbacks and the Rangers. Can anyone imagine betting on any of this?
First concern is of course safety. Second is whether this will take us closer to an actual labor agreement, or make it harder? A strange season of 60 games plus playoffs, followed by a major lcckout which puts the entire next season at risk, is not good. This is all almost surreal; maybe when and if the games start being played, it will seem more normal. And one more speculative question: If the Dodgers win the title, will this assuage those, including me, who have been quite upset at how long it has been since we won our last championship in 1988? Does this “count,” psychologically, irrespective of any record book part? My current answer would be, just a bit, but it would hardly deserve to let the ownership and management off the hook if we fail to win any legitimate titles in the next decade or so.
Now there is this from the WSJ:
More than 20 million people in the U.S. may have contracted the coronavirus since the start of the outbreak, according to an internal government estimate, a figure that is significantly higher than official case counts and reflects the large number of individuals who have the disease but don’t exhibit symptoms..
That lowers the death rate by about a factor of 10, which is what I have been preaching.
Yes it is a deadly virus but if the death rate is just .5% instead of 5% then that is a huge deal.
Think for yourself.
Morning guys.
Just a couple of observations.
It’s was always gonna be more difficult to manage the WHOLE problem while each State governs itself.
In all the countries in Europe, the Whole population Locked Down, (Sweden excepted), including the Uk, and people here treated that common purpose with respect.
It’s only now, 13 weeks later that we are really beginning to see some movement in the restrictions.
You were always gonna struggle without a Uniform Collective Approach.
Secondly, the players will be absolutely fine as they will have more safety protocols and testing than anyone else.
They will be in a bubble, and if they test positive then they Isolate.
Baseball will be fine, and Jeff, you will be rooting for the team
Come Playoff time, just like any other year, because it will be different but still exciting.
Through June 22, the USA has tested more people for COVID-19 than any other country with almost 30 million tested. Russia is 2nd with 17 million. So, if you test more you are going to find more. So, a lot of this panic is simply politically and media driven. The USA leads the world in testing.
Angels going with a 6 man rotation. A couple of things, the guys nursing injuries when training shut down, Pederson and May, and Nelson, are all healthy now. Report says training will consist of workouts, intrasquad games, and maybe some games vs teams in the area towards the end of training. Report from the Red Sox says Verdugo will be at full speed for the resumption of training He had a fracture in his back before. Also it has not been decided where the Blue Jays will play. Travel between the USA and Canada is still restricted. The media has it’s own agenda Truth.
Funny how protests and rioting is not getting any play in explaining why some states are seeing some spikes. Out in CA they point the finger at family gatherings are causing the spikes in hospitalizations rather than even considering that protests might have something to do with it. Family gatherings of 10 people obviously are to blame and protests of thousands yelling and screaming in tightly gathered settings has absolutely nothing to do with it. Yet again, the truth is being manipulated. Come on in sheep, the water is fine.
I don’t think we will see any sports this year, it will get blown up, somehow, someway, good or bad, it ain’t gonna happen.
Just read an analysis on Fivethirtyeight, Nate Silver’s website. Neil Paine ran 10,000 simulated regular seasons of 60 games plus playoffs .versus 162 games plus playoffs. Found that the “best team” (the one they engineered to actually be the best) won the WS only 15 percent of the time in the short season plus playoffs, but only 22 percent of the time in the regular season plus playoffs. I find this fascinating, because it shows the role of luck in baseball. Moreover, the “tipping point” at which skill became a bigger factor than luck was 67 games. Put another way, after 67 games, with each additional game, you knew with more and more certainty that the best team would win. Bottom line is that a 60 game season plus playoffs will do a pretty good job of allowing one of the best teams to actually win the WS. The biggest difference is that does increase the chance a little bit that the best team will not make it into the playoffs at all. That explains the difference between the 15 and 22 percent chance that the best team wins the WS. Once the best team (e.g., the Dodgers!) is in the playoffs, it’s the usual crap-shoot to win the WS, because of the small number of playoff games. And this model did not take into account cheating!
One final note: there is concern that dexamethasone is actually harmful for milder cases. It did seem to help severe cases, which is indeed good news.
With the freeze expiring on Friday I wonder if some lower revenue teams will already attempt to unload higher salary players? I would think everyone should at least wait until 20-25 games have been played since even a bad/low payroll team (read Marlins/Royals/O’s) might get lucky this year, but you never know how any particular front office will deal with the drastic reduction in 2020 revenue.
We might actually see some trades this weekend, not to mention Puig signing with the Giants. I think Farhan won’t be able to resist and Gabe might just be the kind of manager to help YP realize some of that potential. I only hope it won’t be at our expense.
Vegas has the Dodgers and Yankees both at +350 to win the World Series.
Dodgers are champions of the shortened seasons! I’ll take it
Only 60 games?
Really?
It would be better to cancel the season and wait until the next season
Also in 60 games ANY team can win
What importance will the champion have?
If Dodgers are champions, do you feel happy and proud?
I don’t know if 60 is better than nothing, but hey, I guess there will be thousands of people
who will be happy that baseball is back
With this new modality, Washington would not have been champion last year…
Just read where the Astros owner wants to allow fans into their stadium so he can get revenue. This will end well.
Well, I guess I should be excited, but the way the negotiations ended left a sour taste. And the new rules and regulations are a bit surreal. I wonder how the players are feeling right now? It’s a lot to take in. Just hope everyone can stay safe and we can enjoy this game again!
According to ZIPS projections at FanGraphs have LAD with the fourth easiest schedule. Their expected opponent winning percentage is .484. Only the Twins, Indians, and Yankees have projected easier schedules than LAD.
Below is an article on the Nashville Sounds plans for hosting a “league” for unsigned FA.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/06/nashville-sounds-league-mlb-free-agents.html
It appears that Nashville will be entering Phase 4 on July 20, and is expected to opening stadiums to crowds up to 25% capacity. It is also suggested that other MiLB organizations are considering similar plans.
In reading over a list of unsigned FA, one name that automatically caught my attention was Russell Martin. Martin could be a perfect taxi squad catcher if LAD decides to have three taxi squad members travel on the road,
Some good news:
DEXAMETHASONE has become the first drug shown to lower the death rate from COVID-19. The discovery of the benefits of this widely available steroid, which damps down an overactive immune system, was seen as a much-needed piece of good news. Many of the coronavirus drug trials so far have looked at antiviral medicines that may stop the virus from replicating. This is different.
In Indiana COVID-19 cases are rapidly declining and deaths just hit single digits. Pretty encouraging.
Ok I made that up!
Betting will be legal.
Pete Rose will be so happy!
Aren’t fights already prohibited?
Knack and Beeter maybe. Vogel, no way he’s ready for MLB competition and I can’t imagine any scenario under which he’s added to the 60-man this year. In my opinion, throwing him in with major leaguers at this point would just destroy his confidence.
Sorry SCG, looks like I’m the real Grinch here, not you.
Good report Jeff. Thanks for your work on it.
“This is a historic and fluid scenario.” You can say that again.
Sure hope it works.
“ Does this give a carrot for AF to put in front of Landon Knack, Clayton Beeter, and Jared Vogel? ”
Hadn’t thought of that angle. Yes, that should be a bargaining chip. You sign, we put you on the 60.