For six straight years, the Dodgers have been NL West Champs. For three straight years they have won the NLDS and headed to the NLCS. From this point on, it’s really World Series or Bust, but this 2018 version of these Milwaukee Brewers are tough… and opportunistic. While we are at it, let’s no forget that the Atlanta Braves, even though they just burst upon the scene, they were pretty good too. They had a mix of rookies and vets who played hard and didn’t go away quietly. They will likley be better next year, but now the Dodgers must handle the Brewers in a seven game series. The approach to a seven game series is different than a five game series.
The Dodgers had a 2.06 team ERA during the NLDS, but the Brewers team ERA was 0.64 for the same period. I believe that the Dodgers can sustain an ERA under 3.00, after all they put up a 3.38 team ERA for the season. The Brewers team ERA was 3.73 and while everyone says that the Brewers Bullpen is great, their Reliever ERA is 3.47 while the Dodgers is 3.72, but this Dodger team does not include Hudson, Cingrani, Rosscup, Garcia, Paraedes and Axford who all had ERA’s over 4.00. So while Milwaukee is known for their pen, the disparity may not be as great as some think… especially if Kenley pitches like he did in Game 4.
Josh Hader is purely filthy but he has almost 85 IP and he’s going to have to pitch a lot more. Jeffress is very good too, but in a best of seven series, the starters have to pitch a lot, and the Milwaukee starters have a 3.92 ERA compared to the Dodgers’ starters who have a 3.19 ERA. By the way, the Dodgers ERA was barely behind Houston, for the MLB lead in starter ERA. The Astros had a 3.16 ERA, but the Dodgers WHIP was better.
The starting pitching is where there’s a big seperation: The Dodgers can start Ryu (1.97 ERA), Kershaw (2.73 ERA), Buehler (2.62 ERA) and Hill (3.66 ERA), or maybe Urias if you believe the rumors, while the Brewers have Chacin (3.50) as their Ace… and he did pitch very well this year, but he would be a #4 on the Dodgers. They also have Anderson (3.93 ERA). Guerra (4.09 ERA), Gonzalez (4.21 ERA), Suter (4.44 ERA), Peralta (4.25 ERA) and Miley (2.57 ERA in 80 IP). It’s not clear who will start beyond Chacin, who has really pitched way over his head (and I say that with alot of admiration). On paper, the Brewers can’t hold a candle to the Dodgers’ starting pitching.
Offensively, the teams are pretty close, but the Dodgers are demonstratably superior.
- Team BA: Dodgers .250 – Brewers .252
- OB%: Dodgers .333 – Brewers .323
- OPS: Dodgers .774 – Brewers .747
- Runs: Dodgers 804 – Brewers 754
- HR: Dodgers 235 – Brewers 218
- BB: Dodgers 647 – Brewers 537
- Strikeouts: Dodgers 1436 – Brewers 1458
- SB: Dodgers 75 – Brewers 124
However, they don’t play the game on paper. Christian Yelich is likely the NL MVP and just missed winning the Triple Crown – he is one of the best hitters in baseball. LoCain had a career year. It will be up to Yasmani to control the running game, as Cain, Yelich. Villar, Braun and Perez all had double digits in steals. Jesus Aguilar can punish a baseball (.274 BA/.352 OB%/.890 OPS/35 HR/108 RBI) as can Travis Shaw (32 HR). Mike Moustakas has been a nice pickup for the Brewers and while Ryan Braun is near the end of his career, he still has good speed and can get a big hit. Where the Dodgers really best the Brewers is on the bench – the Dodgers depth should make a big difference, but that’s why they play the game.
Another big difference is that the Brewers are the worst fielding team in the playoffs and the stats don’t tell the whole story. Their infield is pretty magginal or below average. That can become pretty big in a series like this. The Rockies just laid down and played dead for the Brewers. That won’t happen with the Dodgers. The Brewers have home field advantage, but that may favor the Dodgers even more. I could see Manny and others launching the ball outtta’ there. It simply flies in Milwaukee. I’m looking into tickets for Friday and Saturday. I’ll be in Austin and San Antonio next week, but might make a run to Milwaukee this weekend.
Will there be any roster changes? The only one that “might” occur is Ross Stripling replacing Alex Wood or Scott Alexander, but that would be one less lefty, so unless there is an injury, the roster will likely be the same. Ryan Madson showed he belonged, in fact, he may see some higher-leverage situations later in the game. Pedro Baez has been extremely good for a couple of months and Caleb Ferguson was again solid. I know I saw 97 from him and maybe a 98! There’s a rumor floating around that Julio Urias might make the roster ands start game 4. That would shock me, but he has shown he is healthy – is he ready to pitch 5 innings is all I wonder? It would mean Wood or Alexader being off the roster and Hill going to the pen. I really can’t see it….
There are many players on the roster FAZ acquired during this season, who had a big hand in this championship: Machado, Dozier, Freese, Madson, Floro and technically, Max Muncy! That’s almost 25 of the roster that has been changed during this season. I believe that 17 of the 25 players on the playoff roster were acquired by FAZ.
Department of Justice Investigation
Dodgerpatch posted the article from Fangraphs about a DOJ investigation which may involve the Dodgers. Allegedly the Dodgers compiled a “Corruption Chart” (for a lack of a better term) whereby they ranked certain employees by how corrupt they were. During that same period of time, Friedman fired three international scouting employees, presumably because they made it to the top of the chart, namely Bob Engle, Patrick Guerrero and Franklin Tavaras. However, the chart complied by someone affiliated with the Dodgers, had five individuals ranked as extremely corrupt and they only fired three. What about the other two? Also, it’s not enough to fire them, but there’s a duty to report this conduct under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and it also boarders on RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organization Act). These guys don’t play around!
However, it would be wise not to jump to any conclusions – we don’t really know how this all started… maybe Andrew Friedman or Stan Kasten reported it, but if they didn’t, the Dodgers could be in some deep trouble. Again, all that is really known is that there is a DOJ investigation… beyond that, we have to wait and see! This may not even be the biggest of the Dodgers problem as there is allegedly infighting among the owners and Guggenheim Partners. I think that will rear it’s ugly head soon as well. In the meantime, let’s enjoy this run! It just might be epic!
Anything but a World Championship is a fail in my opinion. I think the team believes that as well!
Discussion (50)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I don’t think the AL is quite as mighty as credited. Well Houston looks scary, but New York and Boston don’t look as good as their records. Not on the whole. I think Dodgers pitching easily could stymie Red Sox. And they play at parks built for their batters.
It appears to me some of the Dodger hitters are still chasing way too many pitches that are way out of the strike zone.
The way we are playing right now, I don’t think it matters who the heck Roberts trots out there, these guys are HUNGRY, they are locked in and know what’s at stake. Kind of getting the feeling, especially that last game against the Braves, that the team, Roberts included, kicked into another gear. Most of the guys from last year are here, and have been carrying around the hurt from World Series all friggin season. Yeah, I know we all ragged on the Dodgers, myself included at times this season, but like Mark has always said, this team was built for the play-offs, and now I can see that. Alot of the dumbass at bats have gone away. FAZ did a great job of getting guys like Freese, Madsen, and of course Manny Moe, who seems to finally be locking in and becoming a boss. Aside from the occasional Puig brain fart, we look really, really focused. Unless I am totally wrong, this team is edgier than last years team. Instead of us worrying about the Brewers, they need to be looking over their shoulder, because we aint the one dimensional Rockies, or the other tomato cans they knocked over the last few weeks. This Dodger team, while frustrating at times, is extremely dangerous, both pitching and hitting wise. I could totally see us taking the first two, with Kershaw setting the tone and Striker being really cranky, which is not good for the Brewers. Careful what you wish for Milwaukee, the sleeping giant has awoke, and he aint all that happy.
god, we need to wait until friday for baseball . . . i admit i’m not really interested in the bos/nyy series. blame houston & milwaukee for sweeping i guess.
Milwaukee may be a blessing in disguise because Roberts can’t go with a strict platoon. I would expect to see this lineup against RH pitchers:
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1. Joc LF
2. Turner 3B
3. Muncy 1B
4. Machado SS
5. Bellinger CF
6. Kemp RF
7. Hernandez 2B
8. Grandal C
MT- I once asked for a second opinion from a doctor and without flinching he said “You’re ugly too”!!!
No respect..
Forget those numbers, Mark, it’s a seven-game series, and anything can happen,
Here’s a great article about the problems that the Dodgers cause for opposition pitching staffs. A good reason for why the Dodgers will win:
https://sports.yahoo.com/limitless-depth-remarkable-discipline-dodgers-045953661.html
Watford – Keep the faith… One game at a time and let’s send the Brewers packing early… I like AC’s ‘5’…
I’m going to be a drug riddled mess for the first 2 games as I’ll be going in for back surgery Friday at 2:00 PT… I’ll try and focus… I know I’ll be a happy camper till PT comes in the following morning
Hell I’d love to see Urias start a game, but it’s probably not going to happen… I’m rooting for the kid to come out of ST as a member of the piching staff, reduced innings or not…
P.S. I bet the TV folks are praying for a LAD-NYY W.S. I sure as hell will, as it will bring back some great memories..
Brewers first… Go Blue..
whoa. shots fired!
The big difference between the two teams is clearly the starting pitching. In a 7 game series, it is very important to go as deep as a team can with the starting pitcher. The Brewers went into the NLDS with only 11 pitchers on the roster, and three starters (Chacin, Miley, Gonzalez). Only Chacin and Miley started, and Chacin went 5 and Miley went 4.2. Brandon Woodruff started Game 1 in a bullpen game. Gio was on the roster, but did not pitch.
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I assume they will go with 12 pitchers in the NLCS. Will they bring back Chase Anderson as a starter, or add Xavier Cedeno or Dan Jennings in relief and start Junior Guerra?
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The Brewers rely heavily on 5 relievers; Corey Knebel, Joakim Soria, Corbin Burnes, Jeremy Jeffress, and Josh Hader. Knebel (3.0 IP), Soria (2.2), Jeffress (3.1), and Hader (2.1) pitched in all three games, and Burnes (4.0) pitched in Game 1 and Game 3. Counting Brandon Woodruff who started Game 1 (3.0 IP), the Brewers utilized 6 relief pitchers who compiled 18.1 IP. In contrast, in their 4 games, the Dodgers utilized 8 relievers who compiled 10.1 IP. No pitcher appeared in more than 2 games, and Baez (2.1) and Jansen (2.0), were the only relievers to go 2.0 innings or more.
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The Brewers do not have a rotation that can compare with Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, and Hill. I would not switch Hill out. He started two games against Milwaukee, going 12 IP, 11 H, 3 R (2 earned), 5 BB, 13 K…both wins. Clayton Kershaw started twice and split them. He also pitched 12 innings, 12 H, 6 R (3 earned), 2 BB, and 12 K. Buehler started once against the Brewers in a 1-0 loss. Buehler went 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 BB, and 7 K. Ryu did not pitch against the Brewers.
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Ryu is a much better pitcher at Dodger Stadium than away, so I agree that Ryu should start Game 3. I would go Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, Hill.
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The Brewers offense is opportunistic. Their 2nd half surge was led by the insane 2nd half by Christian Yelich. But he has good complimentary pieces in Lorenzo Cain, Travis Shaw, Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Mike Moustakas, and Hernan Perez. And then there was their hero of the NLDS, journeyman catcher Erik Kratz.
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Miley owned the Dodgers in his 1-0 win earlier this year. He went 7.0 shutout innings, allowing 2 hits, 2 walks, and 5 strikeouts. Chacin has not fared very well against the Dodgers over the years. In his one start against LAD this year, Kershaw beat him 21-5. Chacin went 4.1 IP, 5 H, 9 R (8 earned), 3 walks, and 5 strikeouts. Gio did not pitch against he Dodgers in 2018, but he was very effective in 2015-2017. He started 3 games and got 3 wins, 20 IP, and 1.35 ERA.
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The Brewers will be competitive, but I like the Dodgers in 5.
Great read about David Freese in The Athletic:
https://theathletic.com/578268/2018/10/09/rosenthal-after-coping-with-adversity-david-freese-is-back-a-hitter-built-for-the-big-moments/?source=dailyemail
Great win and every chance of beating The Brewers.
However, I watched the Astros hammer the Indians yesterday, and obviously Boston are very strong. Winning a WS won’t be easy.
Still, we can let them beat each other up. Hopefully that series will go 7 games.
Random thought: russell martin is due $20m next year and toronto is rebuilding. If they eat enough salary maybe a one-year job share/mentoring with barnes wouldnt be a bad idea . . . Otherwise we sign a free agent stopgap.