Finally, ST has arrived, and the first ST game is today against the ChiSox. The 7-man scheduled pitching rotation for Saturday’s game is Daniel Corcino, Jaime Schultz, Kevin Quackenbush, Josh Sborz, Stetson Allie, Josh Smoker and Joe Broussard.
Sunday’s game 7 man scheduled rotation will be Hyun-Jin Ryu, Brock Stewart, Dennis Santana, Adam McCreery, Tony Gonsolin, Mitchell White, and Dustin May.
I had already written a lengthy response to Mark’s question on Corey Kluber but decided that I should stay on a more realistic and current topic rather than wishful thinking about Corey Kluber. It has been no secret that I have advocated for Corey Kluber. Aces do not come around very often. But three became available the last two years and the Dodgers whiffed on all three…Sale, Verlander, and Cole. Coincidence that the last two WS champions were able to pull the trigger on those trades? Aces do matter. And now with Kershaw’s future more cloudy than before, wouldn’t it have been nice to have Corey Kluber in the rotation? Oh well it was not to be.
I was drafting some remarks and thoughts I had on the Pads signing of Machado, but wanted to expand on that. Now that ST is here, I wanted to look at all of the NL West competition (such as it is), and I am going to start with the team that made the most recent noise…The San Diego Padres.
I have gone back and forth on the Machado signing. First of all, any player is worth at least what they are being paid. Somebody offered and the other party agreed, and there is a deal. When we say, so and so is not worth it, that is our value judgement. In this case, the Pads believed that having Machado was worth $300MM over ten years. It is irrelevant as to what everybody else thought he was worth, because all it takes is for one team to believe that you are worth $300MM. The Padres had one of the lowest attendance figures in the NL at 2.1MM. With that Hispanic fan base down south, I am guessing that attendance will jump to see Machado, Luis Urias, Francisco Mejia, and budding star Franmil Reyes all presumed to break camp with the MLB team, and Fernando Tatis Jr., due to join them some time this season. They could approach 3MM in attendance, but not without Manny Machado to get the fan base riled up for a multiyear run beginning maybe in 2020. A 30% increase at the gate and increase in jersey sales will go a long way to deferring much of that early investment.
Now just like every investment, this one can go south. But the Pads could reap some benefits before that time. I do not believe that AJ Preller even thinks the Padres are legit NL West contenders this year, but signed Machado knowing they wanted a 3B when all of their other young talent fully blossoms. The Pads have the #1 farm system, with TEN top 100 prospects, and several more just behind.
Their infield will be more than respectable with Eric Hosmer at 1B, Ian Kinsler at 2B, Luis Urias at SS (temporarily), and Manny Machado at 3B. Once Tatis Jr. joins the group, Urias will move to 2B and Kinsler will become the infield sub. But that is it. There is no other help coming. Will Myers can play the corners, but who is going to play up the middle? While the Dodgers have a ton of depth, the Padres have zero depth in the infield. I do not consider Greg Garcia that much of infield depth.
Ian Kinsler is the old man but can also be that needed veteran influence who has played in three WS and has a WS ring. With the number of kids on the roster, both Kinsler and Hosmer will be very helpful in leading. Both are quality citizens and are very helpful in the clubhouse.
Hosmer (29) – 1B
Kinsler (36) – 2B
Urias (21) – 2B/SS – #27 MLB Prospect and #1 2B prospect
Machado (26) – 3B
Tatis Jr. (20) – SS – #2 MLB prospect and #1 SS prospect
At catcher, the Padres have Austin Hedges (26) and Francisco Mejia (23). Hedges is the defensive catcher while Mejia is the offensive catcher. Hedges last year batted .231/.282/.429/.711 and 14 HRs. He hit 18 HRs in 2017. Nothing great, but did you see Barnes’ and Martin’s numbers for 2018? I know, I know. Martin is going to be this year’s Matt Kemp, and Barnes is going to revert back to 2017, and only Dodgers are capable of getting better.
The OF for the Padres has some promise as well. If I were to project their starting OF, I would start with Wil Myers in LF, Manual Margot in CF, and Hunter Renfroe in RF. Franmil Reyes, Travis Jankowski, Frenchy Cordero, and Jose Pirela will battle for the last two spots. I think this is a potential gold mine for SD, but I will get back to that later.
In 2018:
Wil Myers (28) – 312 PA, .253/ .318/.445/.763 – 11 HRs
Manual Margot (24) – 477 PA, .245/.292/.383/.675 – 8 HRs
Hunter Renfroe (27) – 403 PA, .248/.302/.503/.805 – 26 HRs.
Franmil Reyes (23) – 261 PA, .280/.340/.498/.838 – 16 HRs – Future AS
Frenchy Cordero (24) – 139 PA, .237/.307/.439/.746 – 7 HRs
Travis Jankowski (27) – 347 PA, .259/.332/.346/.678 – 4 HRs
Jose Pirela (29) – 438 PA, .249/.300/.345/.645 – 5 HRs
Renfroe’s 26 HRs with Petco as his home field is extremely impressive, as is Reyes’ 16 in 261 PA. Margot is considered an outstanding defensive CF. He had 21 DRS and a 8.9 UZR for 2018.
The Padres have a very good bullpen, led by Kirby Yates (R), Matt Strahm (L), Robert Stock (R), and Craig Stamman (R). They just signed Aaron Loup as a lefty coming out of the pen, and I think if Robbie Erlin (L) stays in the pen, he will be magnificent. The problem is that Erlin will probably be needed to start. They also have Miguel Diaz, Jose Castillo, and Phil Maton who can battle for a roster spot. The Padres have a number of prospects who can come up and get experience at the ML level in the pen. Cal Quantrill is the first to come to mind as a good relief candidate.
Where the Padres are lacking is in starting pitching. I mean reeeeaaaallllly lacking. LH Eric Lauer and LH Joey Lucchesi are the only known starters. Robbie Erlin is probably going to get a third spot. Going into ST, I would hazard a guess that RH Bryan Mitchell, Jacob Nix, and Luis Perdomo would be the leading candidates for the other two spots. Certainly not a rotation that screams NL West champions. Maybe not right out the chute, but lefty Logan Allen seems just about ready to get a chance.
Where the Padres feel extremely comfortable is that within the next two years, there will be several well thought of prospects to potentially join the rotation or the bullpen. The Padres are absolutely loaded with pitching potential:
LHP – Mackenzie Gore (19) – #13 MLB Prospect, #2 LHP
RHP – Chris Paddack (23) – #35 MLB Prospect
LHP – Adrian Morejon (19) – #46 MLB Prospect, #6 LHP
RHP – Michael Baez (23) – #57 MLB Prospect
LHP – Logan Allen (21) – #76 MLB Prospect, #8 LHP
RHP – Luis Patino (19) – #83 MLB Prospect
LHP – Ryan Weathers (19) – #92 MLB Prospect, #10LHP
But the jewel of their young guns is 20-year-old RHP Anderson Espinoza, who the Padres acquired in the Drew Pomerantz trade with the Red Sox. He had TJ surgery in July 2017 and sat out the remainder of 2017 and all of 2018.
Yes, the Padres may have the best farm system, but 7 of their 10 top 100 prospects are pitchers, and 9 out their top 12 prospects. After the graduation of Tatis Jr., the three non-pitching top prospects should all be in the Show, but nobody ready in the queue. The next two closest are Buddy Reed (23), but he is presently blocked by the current seven OF. The next would be Josh Naylor but he is also blocked by the high-priced Eric Hosmer at 1B and the same seven OF. Hosmer is not going anywhere with his HUUUGE unmovable salary.
What has been speculated is that San Diego will use one or two of those OF and one or two of their top pitchers not named Mackenzie Gore to get a top of the rotation pitcher. With Lucchesi, Lauer, Erlin, and Nix already in the Show, and 9 others knocking on the door, they all cannot be on the same roster, so there are multiple prospects who can be eligible for trade. It is just knowing which ones to keep for sure. I would start with Gore, Allen, Paddack, and Espinoza as my untouchables, but if Kluber became available, all except Gore could be included.
Machado has made the Padres relevant for 2020 and 2021 at the latest. But they are going to need help this year. If I were the Padres, I would consider Gio Gonzalez on a one-year contract. That would give the Pads another LHSP if for no other reason than to face LAD who still needs to prove they can hit LHP. And it would give one of the kids another year to percolate before he was forced to make the move to MLB before he was ready.
The second thing I would do would be to sign Jose Iglesias (before the Reds). They need a quality defensive SS just in case Urias is not ready for SS. Iglesias is considering a minor league contract with the Reds, and he would be a better fit for SD. The addition of Gonzalez and Iglesias, with what they currently have could make SD a third-place team in the NL West this year.
They are just random thoughts, but with Machado, Tatis Jr., Urias, Hedges, Mejia, Franmil, Margot, Renfroe, Hosmer and the vast pitching posse, the Padres could certainly be in a position to contend in the near future. If you consider the Dodgers prospects as top notch, then you cannot ignore how good the Padres prospects can be. Many are ready to sing the praises of Dustin May, but the Padres have 4 pitchers considered better than May at least by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America. To be fair, FanGraphs did rate May ahead of all SD pitcher prospects. Regardless the Pads have multiple pitching prospects that could be difference makers in a couple of years. Others could be used in trades for other player needs.
Discussion (74)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Ben Holmes was a big surprise add this past summer. He was released by Miami and picked up by LAD. He is a 27 year old LHSP who was signed and assigned to Rancho Cucamonga. In 6 games, 3 starts, he pitched 17.0 innings and had a 1.06 ERA and a 0.824 WHIP. When he was promoted to Tulsa he started 6 games and pitched 38.1 innings. He had a 2.82 ERA and 0.965 WHIP. He finally was given a slot in the AFL where he pitched another 22.2 innings with a 3.97 ERA and 1.412 WHIP.
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I think he probably starts out at Tulsa but should get that AAA promotion. He will probably start as a starting pitcher, but his future at the ML level would probably be as a middle reliever. He could be a potential ML loogy.
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Both DC and I wrote about him often last summer. He was a standout after getting picked up.
Damn, Ben Holmes was dealing. Anybody out there know this guy? I like his makeup. And c’mon Mark, Stetson Allie is right up there with your Striker Bueller nameplate.
Stetson Allie. Is that a cool name or what? Mark’s gotta love that one. Not bad on the mound either. Great to see so many Dodgers of the future today against the White Sox. DJ Peters, Beatty, Lux, etc., love seeing so many farm guys for the first time live. We are friggin’ LOADED!! Freidman and Zaide brought back a farm system that was dying on a vine. Can’t believe how much young pitching we have coming up(Dustin May, Mitchell White). I am getting psyched.
Kluber this and Kluber that!!!
Got to view my first 2019 ST boxscore…Sweet…
I could hear Vinny saying “Welcome to Dodger baseball”…
Kudos to Rickey Martin…
After 1 game:
The Dodgers are in 1st place
RVS is a genius
Russ Martin is the Comeback Player of the Year
Good inning by Sborz. I like his stuff. I never understood why we took a very successful college reliever with high draft pick and then tried converting him to a starter. If he was kept in the pen, he would’ve been on the big league team quickly, like Paco Rodriguez. Hopefully this year he gets his shot.
And yes, Lux looks like stud athlete out there!
Rios made a nice play at 3B. He opened my eyes!
Lux looks like a ballplayer. That’s our next offensive start right there!
Joc’s home run just rolled up my driveway. Nice Spring Training souvenir.
Happy bday Quas! Hey, are you using that free stream on your laptop or ipad?
I”m curious if these things work on ipads too.
Really? I have to guess I’m the only one that’s too cheap to pay to watch the Dodgers. This wasn’t a problem last season as it was at reddit. I’ll keep at it but it’d be cool for someone to advise me where to find one of today’s Dodger Games.
This is my vantage point:
My boy, Russell Martin starts his Comeback Player of the Year Season.
Austin Barnes is lighting it up too.
Here comes Alex!
Wow, these new hitting coaches are awesome! Two run double by Martin to start the scoring. Then a double by Barnes!
Does anybody know where I can find a free stream for the game today? Today is even my birthday and I’m unable to locate a stream. It’s not at reddit. At least not as of yet.
The Dodgers are running their Opening Day lineup in the first Spring Training Game:
1. Pederson LF
2. Turner 3B
3. Muncy 1B
4. Hernandez 2B
5. Martin DH
6. Barnes C
7. Verdugo CF
8. Orlando RF
9. Castro SS
Thanks for your time AC!
When I heard the Dodgers might be trying to get Kulber earlier in the off season, I looked to see where he was hurting last year.
And what was bothering Kluber last year was his knee, but I don’t know how bad Kluber’s knee was last year.
But I agree with everyone else, it gets really frustrating when the Dodgers keep all of this info close, and just try to make things look better then it really is.
Although we don’t know they are doing that with Kershaw, but with the way they handled Ryu in the past, and Corey more recently, it gets frustrating.
The Pads appear to be loaded but without starting pitching this year they won’t go far. In a year or 2? They could give the Dodgers a big push.
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I read an article hypothesizing that the Dodgers didn’t need to spend $$ to win the division now but in a couple of years when the Pads are ready to compete, they will have the money to spend if they need to to stay on top. Interesting theory.
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As good as their prospects are, the Padres’ prospects are just prospects until they prove that they can compete in MLB. Player development is huge and is one important area where the Dodgers have improved since Friedman has taken over. How are the Padres’ player development staff? They haven’t produced a single star in years. Will the new crop prove to be better?
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As to Preller, he has been both dishonest and incompetent in the past. (Remember the season that he loaded the team up with corner OF and was surprised when no one could play CF? Then he tore the whole thing down after spending a fortune and proceeded to trade off everyone but Myers and collected prospects.) The Machado signing is a stretch. It will be interesting to see if he does a better job now than he has done thus far.
Excluding Kershaw for a moment, the Dodgers are still lefty dominant pitching and hitting. Ryu, Hill, Urias, Fergusson vs Stripling, Buehler, Maeda and maybe Stewart. I think Stripling gets the not to start the season in the rotation if Kershaw is delayed. I think there is a chance that Urias beats out Maeda to start the season in the rotation.
I mean I”m excited to watch today’s game, but MAN, after seeing the list of who’s scheduled to go tomorrow that AC posted above, I might just have to drive to Phx to watch them all throw!! Our future is on the mound tomorrow!
Good write up AC. If the Padres were to add one solid pitcher to their staff they would be worthy opponents. Not World Series caliber, but definitely not doormats. If they are injury free and everything goes right, then they’ll make a playoff run. However, one or two injuries to key players then I think they’ll struggle.
Friedman has a pretty good record (so far) of not trading away pitching prospects who turn out to be very good. Let’s look at what Cory Kluber was in the Minors. He was San Diego’s #29th ranked prospect and the only other time he showed up on BA’s Prospect list was 2011 after he was traded to Cleveland and he was ranked #26.
So when I see guys like Gonsolin make big strides in one season, I know it’s possible the Dodgers have caught a big break. Sometimes good pitchers fall under the radar…
Happy Opening Day to us all! Actually Rich Hill will be starting the game today.
If Clayton is hurt, they need to deal with it right now. Have the surgery and deal with it. I do not think we need to do anything. The price is only going to go up when you are desperate. We have enough good arms to absorb this injury. Stripling, Ferguson, and Urias will get the job done.
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I was fine with the Kershaw extension. Kershaw needs to be a Dodger for life. Kershaw may be better than last year after surgery. He is a smart man and will adapt.
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I am looking forward to the game today.
Call me a glass half full kind of guy, but I am in the camp Kershaw will be fine (boy I hope I’m right). If the Dodgers know there is something structural to his elbow, shoulder, hip, back etc. why not just say it and get it checked. What benefits them to say it’s no big worry with Kershaw saying he’ll throw this weekend or the early part of next week?
I know the Dodgers have a history of slow playing injuries but I just don’t see the reason they would “downplay” this setback if they indeed felt it was something more serious, than again for all we know Kershaw has had an MRI that is being evaluated by Dr. Elattrache.
I’m going to think positive and hope Kershaw just wasn’t happy with his mechanics and perhaps the offseason work to “align” himself wasn’t translating to good results on the mound. One thing for sure this puts a damper on some of the excitement of a new season, but if Kershaw is lost for an extended period of time it’s time for the “next man up mantra,” (MT-that’s an article possibility-feel free to use it).
Oh and BTW, that was a great write up on the Padres, AC.
I fully believe that AJ Preller can screw this whole thing in SD up.
There are a some people and I am included, who believe Corey Kluber is on the decline. Of course Verlander was on the decline but he wasn’t inclined (see what I did there?) to stay that way, so stuff can change. Corey Kluber has similar stats to Clayton Kershaw in the playoffs. In 45 IP, he has a 3.97 ERA and a 1.257 WHIP and has given up 10 HR.
Kershaw has logged 152 IP in the playoffs and has a 4.32 ERA, but his WHIP is 1.092 and has given up 22 HR. Neither pitcher has pitched up to their regular season stats, but Clayton’s WHIP tells you that some of the issue have just been bad luck.
Kluber is two years older than Clayton and after last season, I heard quite a conversation on MLB about Kluber’s decline. Like Clayton, his velocity has dropped over the past 3 years. There’s a lot going on with Corey Kluber that is alarming. Here’s a good read about it from a Cleveland blog:
https://waitingfornextyear.com/2019/01/corey-kluber-ready-for-2019/
An earlier blog written by the same guy says this:
Despite another stellar final line for Kluber,2 there have been warning signs he is becoming a depreciating asset. His velocity lost a full mile per hour on his four-seam fastball, sinker, and changeup, which partially explained an effectiveness drop-off in each of those pitches. Hitters were swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone and making contact with more pitches overall than in previous seasons. As a result, Kluber saw his strikeout rate drop at the same time his hard-hit and home run rate rose.
WFNY has been tracking Kluber all season from the early peripheral drops3 to the troublesome home run trend and inability to miss bats4 all the way to how Kluber was compensating by attempting to limit hard contact.5
Kluber was still one of the top pitchers in MLB in 2018, but he wasn’t quite the same dominant starter Tribe fans had grown to expect. To those fans who had been paying close attention, his quick exit and meager results in the ALDS were not a huge surprise.”
https://waitingfornextyear.com/2018/11/corey-kluber-trade-yankees-dodgers/
Here’s what he purposed on a trade with the Dodgers:
Dodgers receive:
Corey Kluber, SP
Jason Kipnis, 2B-LF
Indians receive:
Chris Taylor, SS-2B-OF
Alex Verdugo, OF
J.T. Chargois, RP
Gerardo Carrillo, SP-RP
That would have meant that the Dodgers could not sign Pollock.
Clayton is in decline and as I mentioned yesterday, I fully expected him to miss a season in his three year deal. It’s just part of it. I acknowledge that Kershaw has more issues than Kluber – back, hip, but I don’t see him as an upgrade that much… and no matter what, the Dodgers were going to sign Clayton. It was never Kluber OR Kershaw.
I guess we will find out this year if Kluber keeps declining. Maybe I am wrong… but doing a deal for a pitcher that is BARELY better than Clayton in the playoffs is not smart… in my opinion. We don’t know what is wrong with Clayton… maybe it’s nothing… or maybe it is. Teams will fall out of contention and other pitchers will be available at the trade deadline.
The Dodgers still sport 6 excellent starters, without Clayton… how good remains to be seen and injuries could impact the rotation, but they also have Gosolin, Ferguson and others nearing ready. Over stretches last season, Ryu and Stripling were among the best pitchers in baseball and Urias has been the talk of the camp this spring. No dope fiend moves!
I agree on everything, especially the get it diagnosed and deal with it now. Let´s see what happens.
I am a glass half-full or full type. I really even comment on what is going on with the Dodgers. It is what it is as they say and they know much better than I do and are pretty good at it.
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However, one thing that has always gotten to me as a cover up is, “We are not worried.” It is not a surprise to me there are issues with Clayton. He has not been the same pitcher and is too young to be on the downhill already. Now he is shut indefinitely and”… “no one is alarmed or worried” because there’s still plenty of time for him to be ready for the start of the season.” I am alarmed and worried.
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How often have we heard ,”we are not concerned”, only to see TJ or some other long term rehabilitation follow? Big contract aside, I can’t see Clayton making it through this without TJ or something else longer term. Whatever it is, don’t guess it might be dead arm or something like that. Get it diagnosed and deal with it.
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Caleb Ferguson – get ready.
The Dodgers have shut down Clayton Kershaw indefinitely, Roberts describes the shut down only as an “arm kind of thing.”