my take - The Dodgers will not trade for skubal

Last Friday, LA Times Columnist Bill Plaschke opined as to why the Dodgers NEED to trade for Tarik Skubal. There was a lot of discussion on that, but I was out enjoying the variant wines in Sonoma County, so I did not participate in the discussion.   However, I disagree with Mr. Plaschke, and apparently multiple commenters here. 

1. He compared this year to 2023.  Not even close.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Wrobleski, and Eric Lauer are better than what was trotted out against Arizona, and not by a small margin.  Not to mention that Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow should be available sometime mid-August (Snell) and late August (Glasnow).  Not to mention that River Ryan will also be available in August.  The Dodger rotation is far better than it was in 2023. 

2. Snell and Glasnow, and perhaps Ohtani are ifs.  Then again, isn’t every pitcher in MLB?  It is interesting to me that Snell is an if, but not Skubal.  While Skubal’s surgery was less intrusive, but it was still loose body elbow surgery and per Plaschke, “any season that includes even the most minor of elbow surgeries can have a problematic ending.”  Apparently, that does not include Skubal. 

3. Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell were injured for most of the regular season in 2025, but they were both available for the postseason.  Snell pitched 34.0 innings and Glasnow 21.1 innings, the 2nd and 3rd most IP in the playoffs.  Glasnow was basically unhittable in the playoffs.  He dominated when healthy this season, and I figure he will dominate this season in the playoffs as he did last year.  Snell says "I'm so good right now, I can't wait to pitch."

4. Snell said he was "pain-free" two months after his surgery, which removed loose bodies from his elbow. He even noted that his lingering shoulder pain has improved in addition to his elbow.

5. In last year’s World Series, Justin Wrobleski pitched 5.0 scoreless innings (4 games), giving up 4 hits, 0 BB, and 6 K.  But Plaschke questions whether Wrobleski can be trusted with a WS start.  Why?  He further questions Wrobleski ability with:  “deep-bombing Miguel Vargas reminded him how the heat increases when the expectations are higher.”  He failed to mention that he struck out 5 AL All Stars in 2.0 innings.  Wrobo is having a better year than Skubal this year, and he has pitched extremely well in the WS.  

6. Skubal’s post-surgery ERA is 2.97 and a 3.66 FIP.  Skubal has never pitched past the ALDS.  He has 6 postseason starts and Detroit is 3-3 in those games.  Detroit won both WC games, but are 1-3 in ALDS games he started.  It sure does not appear that he is a lock to win in the playoffs and guarantee a 3-peat. 

7. And he questions the bullpen, including Edwin Díaz and his 10.50 ERA in all of 6.0 IP while being hurt.  Yeah, that is a fair assessment of Díaz. Once Snell returns to the rotation, Sheehan moves to the bullpen.  Sasaki who was absolutely brilliant in the bullpen in 2025 playoffs will join him when Glasnow returns.  Last year the bullpen was reliant on Sasaki.  Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, all pitched in relief.  This year, besides Sasaki and Diaz, the Dodgers will have Tanner Scott and Evan Phillips who were not available last season in the playoffs.  Plus, Alex Vesia who was not available for the WS.  Brock Stewart, Emmet Sheehan, Eric Lauer (as of today), Edgardo Henriquez, Jack Dreyer, Will Klein, and Kyle Hurt figure to fight over the remaining spots in the bullpen.  This does not include what reliever they target at the deadline, or Seth Halvorsen and Jake Cousins.

 I think the Dodgers can acquire a SP like Tarik Skubal without a massive overpay.  But I still do not think they will.  They will massively overpay for a free agent with $$$, but will not overpay in a trade with prospects.  Maybe readers think they should, but they just do not.

The last three deadline trades where the Dodgers acquired elite talent was 2017, 2018, and 2021.

 2017 the Dodgers acquired RHSP Yu Darvish. The cost:

·      OF Willie Calhoun – LAD # 4, MLB #69

·      RHP AJ Alexy – LAD #17

·      INF Brendon Davis – LAD #27

 2018 the Dodgers acquired SS Manny Machado.  The cost:

·      OF Yusniel Diaz – LAD #4, MLB #84

·      RHP Dean Kremer – LAD #28

·      3B Rykan Bannon

·      INF Breyvic Valera

·      RHRP Zach Pop

 2021 the Dodgers acquired RHSP Max Scherzer and SS Trea Turner.  The cost:

·      C Keibert Ruiz - #1 LAD, #56 MLB

·      RHSP Josiah Gray - #2 LAD, #57 MLB

·      RHRP Gerardo Carillo – LAD #17

·      OF Donovan Casey

Who are the teams who are reportedly most interested in Skubal.  The Dodgers are listed at the top, but I think that is hype over realism.  The Dodgers will obviously check in on Skubal, but the cost is going to need to drop to the cost of previous deadline acquisitions.  It won’t.

The only time that the Dodgers traded 2 top 100 prospects was in 2021, and they got a SP (Scherzer) who went 7-0 in 11 starts, with 1.98 ERA, .820 WHIP, 89K vs 8 BB.  Plus, a SS/2B (Turner) who won the NL batting championship.  Turner hit better with LAD than he did with Washington.  Ruiz was clearly blocked by Will Smith but is having a good year in 2026 (finally).  He has a very team-friendly contract through 2030 with 2 club options at very team-friendly costs ($12M) with no buyout.  Gray has not pitched any meaningful innings since 2023.

 Darvish and Machado cost 1 top 100 prospect each, and neither were top 60.

 Do the Dodgers need Skubal?  I say no.  They can win a WS without him. They have won 3 in the last 6 years without him, and with worse pitching than they have today.  The SP in 2024 was poor, their bullpen was not good at all in 2025, and they won the WS both years.  This year’s rotation and bullpen figure to be much improved over prior WS teams.  That will not guarantee them the WS, and neither will the addition of Tarik Skubal.

 Would the Dodgers be better with Skubal than without him?  Of course.  But at what cost?   The Dodgers have 9 top 100 prospects (MLB Pipeline); 4 top 30 and 5 top 45.

What other teams figure to be in the Skubal sweepstakes?  Brewers, Cubs, Braves, Phillies, and Rays are the teams most often mentioned.  I would include NYY, but I think they are more interested in Colorado’s C Hunter Goodman.

The Brewers are down to Jacob Misiorowski.  LHSP Kyle Harrison is on the IL with forearm tightness and Brandon Woodruff is out for the year.  That leaves a hodge-podge of fill ins like Brandon Sproat, Robert Gasser, and Shane Drohan.

 In Monday’s game, Misiorowski was removed after 4.0 innings and 65 pitches.  Per AI overview, he was also originally scratched from a scheduled start in Pittsburgh before the All-Star break and sat out the All-Star game due to that same arm fatigue. While he threw 26 pitches over 100 mph (peaking at 104 mph), manager Pat Murphy noted after the game that pulling him was largely a precautionary measure, stating it was a matter of “just being mindful of when a guy's not right” after the extended layoff. Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy indicated they are carefully monitoring his innings and pitch count following a recent layoff for arm fatigue.

The Brewers have nine Top 100 players per Baseball America and six per MLB Pipeline.  They have the prospect capital to make a deal.  Milwaukee prefers to build from within, but a player like Skubal does not come around very often.  How far up the list would Milwaukee be willing to go?  They are not going to re-sign Skubal.  Would they be willing to spend the capital for a rental when they generally prefer to build from within.

Phillies have three SP, Cristopher Sánchez, Zach Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo.  They need SP but do not have the farm system to get them Skubal? They have 3 top 100 prospects graded at 55 FV, and 2 at 50.  Their highest rated prospect is #29, SS Aidan Miller.  They could possibly trade the two 50 FV prospects for a mid-rotation starter, but other teams might push that up to a 55 and 50. They also need a 3B and a power hitting OF. 

The Cubs have 1 starting pitcher with a sub 4.00 ERA, Shota Imanaga.  Jameson Taillon just returned from IL on Monday and was rocked by Detroit in his 1st game back.  Matthew Boyd also recently returned from the IL and has been off and on since returning.  Edward Cabrera is on the IL now with a hamstring injury.  Colin Rea is the 5th.  Could they use Skubal?  Yes. But they also only have 3 top 100 prospects and the top is #64.

The Rays have three SP that they can count on:  Nick Martinez, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan.  The Rays have moved Griffin Jax to the rotation.  If the Dodgers cannot count on Snell and Glasnow, can the Rays count on McClanahan?  They have 3 top 100 prospects including #9, #72, and #93.  The last two are catching prospects, and with All Star Dillon Dingler and top catching prospects Josue Briceño (#3) and Thayron Liranzo (#5) as top prospects, would Detroit have any interest in either or the Rays catching prospects?  I do not think the Rays will trade their top OF prospect. 

The Braves are down to 3 SP: Chris Sale, Bryce Elder, and Grant Holmes.  Top prospect JR Ritchie is moving between the rotation and bullpen.  The Braves have three top 100 prospects (#43, #77, and #96).

Skubal would give all of the teams a top pitcher, filling out the top 4 for the playoffs, making any of them formidable.  Do any of the teams, not named the Brewers, have the prospect capital to get Skubal? Will any team spend it?  The Tigers are only 4.5 games out of a WC spot and 6.5 games out of the AL Central lead.  Will Detroit trade Skubal?  Their only chance at the playoffs is with Skubal.

There may be a pitcher added at the deadline, but I am going with it will not be Skubal. 

ACL Dodgers 6 – ACL Guardians 5

 The ACL Dodgers struck first with the first three batters in the 1st inning.  2B Nico Perez (on rehab assignment), singled.  SS Aidan West drew a BB.  DH Sam Mongelli hit his 3rd HR for a 3-0 lead.

RHSP Jack O'Connor allowed a pair of solo runs in the 1st and 4th innings.  In 3.2 innings, he allowed both runs on 7 hits, with 7 K.

In the 4th, C Gio Cueto hit his 2nd HR.

In the 5th, with 2 outs Perez walked.  West singled Perez to 3rd.  Perez scored on a WP. 

ACL Dodgers scored an unearned run in the 6th inning when RF Abel Lorenzo doubled (12) home CF Augustin Acosta.

RHRP Yuliangel De La Cruz came in relief in the 7th.  He allowed a run after a single, BB, fielder’s choice and single.

RHRP Alvaro Benua entered in the 8th.  He loaded the bases with 2 BB and a HBP, but nobody crossed the plate.

LHRP Franderly Morel entered the 9th and gave up 2 runs to lose the game.

 ·      Abel Lorenzo – 1 RBI, double (12)

·      Sam Mongelli – 1-4, 1 run, 3 RBI, HR (3)

·      Euri Rosa – 1-3, double (2)

Box Score

DSL Cle Goryl 11 – DSL LAD Mega 6

In the 2nd inning, DH Juan Macero reached on an error.  3B Jose Victorino singled and Macero moved to 3rd.  With one out, 2B Luis Lana and 1B Jesus Villaflor each walked allowing Macero to score.

LHSP Angel Medina pitched a scoreless 1st inning, but gave up 3 in the 2nd on 2 hits, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 1 balk, and 1 WP. 

In the 4th, Luna walked and scored on a double (5) by C Roberto Saucedo.  Saucedo scored on a double (5) by SS Antoni Urena.

In the 5th, LAD Mega took a very temporary lead when Saucedo and Villaflor both singled and came home on Urena’s 3rd HR.

After taking a 6-5 lead three LAD Mega pitchers gave up 6 runs in the next 3 innings. 

·      Antoni Urena – 2-5, 1 run, 4 RBI, double (5), HR (3)

·      Rafy Peguero – 2-4

·      Roberto Saucedo – 2-3, 1 BB, 2 runs, 1 RBI, double (5)

·      Double – Juan Macero (5)

Box Score

DSL Royals Fortuna 2 – DSL LAD Bautista 0 – 6 innings

RHP Alexander Pichardo and LHP Junior Pena each pitched 3.0 innings and combined to surrender 2 runs (1 earned) on 1 hit, 4BB, and 3 K.

LAD Bautista also registered 2 hits: a double (9) by DH Fran-Jean Haseth, and a single by 1B Haram Hernandez.

Box Score