Let’s assume that the Dodgers make no more changes to their roster. That’s not likely, but for the purposes of this exercise, we’ll make it so. These are my predictions for how the players presently on the 40 man roster will perform next year:
Pitchers: W L ERA IP H R BB SO SV WHIP
Scott Alexander 2 3 4.12 53 48 17 26 48 1 1.235
Pedro Baez 6 3 2.90 73 54 24 25 75 1 0.980
Walker Buehler 17 6 2.87 212 176 84 42 226 0 1.028
JT Chargois Spends the year in the minors
Caleb Ferguson 6 3 2.97 64 54 19 31 78 0 1.320
Dylan Floro Spends the year in the minors
Tony Gonsolin 7 4 3.37 89 71 30 21 92 2 1.034
Victor Gonzalez 1 2 4.35 23 24 10 10 23 0 1.478
Kenley Jansen 4 1 3.09 71 54 22 15 87 33 0.972
Joe Kelly 3 5 4.06 64 48 26 26 65 0 1.156
Clayton Kershaw 14 7 3.17 189 153 60 46 194 0 1.052
Adam Kolarek 1 1 2.12 33 22 7 7 29 0 0.879
Kenta Maeda 10 9 4.09 164 143 67 49 174 0 1.171
Dustin May 10 5 3.39 153 141 52 29 169 0 1.111
Casey Sadler Spends the year in the minors
Dennis Santana Spends the year in the minors
Josh Sborz Spends the year in the minors
Ross Stripling 9 5 3.33 123 116 41 31 128 0 1.195
Blake Treinen 0 2 2.46 61 44 15 15 87 10 0.967
Julio Urias 11 7 3.73 177 153 66 38 183 0 1.079
Mitchell White Spends the year in the minors
Catchers: AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB SO BA OPS
Austin Barnes 184 30 41 13 1 8 34 3 47 .223 .653
Keibert Ruiz Spends the year in the minors
Will Smith 382 68 91 15 2 18 59 4 71 .254 .811
Infielders:
Matt Beaty 321 52 89 22 0 15 80 1 42 .277 .822
Enrique Hernandez 450 60 106 21 2 18 66 8 102 .236 .725
Gavin Lux 249 51 77 18 3 11 61 5 49 .309 .850
Zach McKinstry 54 13 15 6 0 4 20 1 20 .278 .720
Max Muncy 590 103 165 32 0 31 101 2 110 .279 .910
Edwin Rios 125 21 36 11 0 12 48 0 56 .288 .862
Corey Seager 601 98 191 50 2 24 96 3 112 .318 .915
Justin Turner 570 86 167 33 0 28 98 0 93 .292 .836
Tyler White Spends the year in the minors
Outfielders:
Cody Bellinger 630 124 198 40 13 43 122 23 112 .315 1.063
Kyle Garlick 62 17 18 9 0 8 17 0 26 .290 .798
Joc Pederson 511 88 129 26 1 31 80 3 118 .252 .987
DJ Peters 50 10 14 3 0 5 14 0 24 .288 .828
A.J. Pollock 426 61 121 19 0 22 78 0 121 .284 .802
Chris Taylor 430 59 115 21 2 17 62 3 127 .267 .821
Alex Verdugo 481 66 145 28 3 18 71 3 119 .299 .821
Some Minor League Players who may contribute or are September call-ups:
W L ERA IP H R BB SO SV WHIP
Josiah Gray 0 0 3.33 12 8 4 3 14 0 0.917
Marshall Kasowski 0 0 1.43 7 4 1 3 10 0 1.000
Casey Crosby 0 1 3.89 18 10 7 14 22 0 1.333
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB SO BA OPS
Jeter Downs 12 3 4 1 0 1 5 0 5 .333 .700
Because of the constraints of time, I didn’t accurately determine what the batting average and OPS would be for the position players. I did have to get some work done this weekend.
I do not think there’s a snowball’s chance on a So. California summer’s day, that the 40 man roster will not change between now and the beginning of Spring Training. It will be different. How different, I have no idea.
Now it’s your turn. Let’s take a break from bashing the front office and speculating as to whom the Dodgers will trade for, etc, and have a Monday fun day. Take some risks with your predictions, as “the points don’t matter and every prediction is made up.” Despite that, there will be a prize of some sort for those who’s predictions most often come the closest to what actually happens. There will also be a very special prize for that person who remembers at the end of next season that we did this today.
One last thing: shortly after reading that Kluber was traded to the Rangers, I was listening to a Traffic album on my iMusic and, with apologies to Jim Capaldi and Stevie Winwood, I revised the “Dear Mr. Fantasy” lyrics as follows:
Dear Mr. Friedman make us a trade
Something to make us all happy
Do anything, take us out of this gloom
Trade for Lindor, buy a starter, but make it snappy
You are the one who can make us all laugh
But doing nothing will bring the tears and jeers
Please don’t say you will, if you don’t care to spend
Cause we have been patient for all these years
Discussion (98)
Disagree, not disagreeable
I trust AF to make the right decision with the prospects. So far he’s dealt away the the right prospects. Lindor and Clevinger are two actual star player. There’s a lot of COULD BE with prospects. I have a hard time believing the Indians would deal Clevinger.
Scouts still rave about Julio Urias’ stuff, but Dustin May is very close and Tony Gonsolin is also there.
As you know, I was not happy with the drafting of Lux and Kendall. Kendal has all the “WOW Tools” but he is still a big disappointment. All Lux did was what I tell employees I hire:
1. Show Up;
2. Step Up;
3. Shut Up!
As I mentioned, I was watching video of his swing and you can see him get better, day-by-day. This kid just keeps evolving. I have warmed up to him to the point of where he is untouchable. Lindor benefits immensely by playing at the Jake. He hits .310 at home (.374 OB%) and .266 on the road (.320 OB%). To put it another way, his OPS at home is .901 (superstar), but on the rod it is .781 (Journeyman).
I don’t not get the fascination with him, and neither does AF. I guarantee it! He will never be a Dodger unless Cleveland just rolls over.
In 2019, Lindor hit .284 with a .335 OB% and had a ,854 OPS. He did hit 32 HR, but he would have had less if he played in Chavez Ravine.
Lux could put up similar numbers in his rookie year.
Lux could be ROY and May could be RPOY.
Shadddduuupppp with all this nonsense, already!
I think DodgerRick has it all figured out. I think he is finally thinking what I am… but I am thinking what I am now because of what he said!
I enjoy reading Jayne Cobb’s comments especially about the minor league experiences. Good stuff. Maybe she could write a column here. You think Mark?
Career stats (Baseball Reference) against teams with .500+ winning records.
Clevinger: .252 / .344 / .422 / .766 tOPS+ 1.33
Maeda: .237 / .312 / .416 / .727. tOPS+ 116
Ryu: .245 / .293 / .380 / .681 tOPS+ 1.02
Buehler: .197 / .262 / .333 / .596. tOPS+ 94
Kershaw: .119 / .175 / .131 / .306. tOPS+ 58
Obviously not facing the same opponents. Draw your own conclusions. For me, to trade May I want a better pitcher against .500+ teams than Clevinger.
Cross Wade Miley off the list (Reds)
Wade Miley, Alex Wood, Julio Tehran, Andrew Cashner, Homer Baily, Jason Vargas, Gio Gonzales, Jhoulys Chacin and many others pitchers are still available. Some of these look like a typical FA signing/reclamation project we’ve far too often become accustomed with.
If the FO is indeed going to improve the SP it will have to by way of a trade, otherwise take a hard pass on any of the available FA starting pitchers still available sans Ryu.
There are rumblings that Clevinger has some serious back/shoulder issue.
Also, it’s possible that Lux, Ruiz and Gonsolin could be better than Lindor and Clevinger.
I was studying some video in the DR and Lux has came so far, but I don’t think he even close to where he will be…. maybe THIS year.
If Cartaya is what he is projected to be then I could see trading Ruiz, but I can’t make that determination until he get to GL. I think he should be pushed.
Truth be said, I don’t want to lose Ruiz, but can anyone give me an idea what the future holds for Diego Cartaya??? Saw him in a couple games in the AZL and I liked the kid.. Comfortable behind the dish with good footwork…
DodgerRick:
With Homeboy Moya’s takes it’s all about the IQ!!!
2d now make your playoff predictions. That’s what really matters!
Fuckin stan kasten aka smithers from the simpsons needs to make a move
The Dodgers need a pitcher like Clevinger right now, that would make a hypothetical October rotation of: 1 Buehler
2 Clevinger
3 Urias
4 May / Kershaw
The Dodgers could have Lindor, Betts, Trout together on the team but if Kershaw starts two games in the world series, I’m sorry to tell you that we’re not going to win, Kershaw and Ryu himself can’t stop a strong American league offense, no It reaches them, so another pitcher No.1 or No.2 would give kershaw only one game.
Lindor will always be welcome but pitchers are more urgent.
The Dodgers need a pitcher like Clevinger right now, that would make a hypothetical October rotation of:
1 Buehler
2 Clevinger
3 Urias
4 May / Kershaw
The Dodgers could have Lindor, Betts, Trout together on the team but if Kershaw starts two games in the world series, I’m sorry to tell you that we’re not going to win, Kershaw and Ryu himself can’t stop a strong American league offense, no It reaches them, so another pitcher No.1 or No.2 would give kershaw only one game.
Lindor will always be welcome but pitchers are more urgent.
The Dodgers are a Ferrari, with Cole it was sought to give it more power, it was not achieved but they are still a Ferrari.
Rudy, ha ha, well done, very funny.
Mark,
When you get back can you post your spicy chili recipe again? I remember it a few years ago but can’t find it.
what happened to my last post?
Going back to what I said about player development; Driveline Baseball did a study about the value of all teams’ player development efforts between 2012 and 2019 and the Dodgers have created more value from their farm system than any other franchise. Here is the link:
https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/04/finding-star-nothing-luck-quantifying-effectiveness-mlb-player-development/
So – the Dodgers haven’t signed a free agent to a 9 figure deal but they have created more value than any other team with their scouting and player development departments – and that’s why they’ve been good.
I agree that they should be on the hunt for a difference maker, but they have been spending lots of money to grow their own and it’s working.
Some players like pederson etc who they are a part of trade rumors might have less motivation. Some players might think roberts has blown it for them. Some players who feel like the front office isnt doing anything might lose motivation. The disrespect shown to ryu. This front office has bungled this whole off season. They can buy a company from mark cuban but not spend money on players. No one cares to hear stan kasten talk about ticket sales
It most likely won’t be!
NorCal, you are wrong, Pollack was 0-13 in the postseason with 11 K’s, not 12. After that showing, how can anyone even talk about this guy? Trade him, Bellinger, Kershaw and a bag of balls to the Nats for Howie Kendrick, somehow I don’t think the Nats would entertain that offer., they will leave the choke artists in LA. History doesn’t remember competitive teams, you play to win the game:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5-iJUuPWis
This team as constructed is the same choke show, minus Ryu. I am very excited to see what AF does between now and the start of the season, it better be good!
The Dodgers have said that they are on the hunt for elite talent. I agree that only elite talent will really improve the team – they are looking for a difference maker, especially for the post-season.
There were 3 or 4 elite free agents who are difference makers. They are all off of the board (except maybe Josh Donaldson – I don’t know if they consider him to be so designated).
Hyun Jin Ryu is potentially elite (based on the last 1 1/2 seasons) but retaining him isn’t adding a difference maker – it’s just keeping what they already had last season. It doesn’t seem like they are all that hot on resigning him though.
I don’t know what other trade targets the Dodgers are serious about. We read rumors but that’s mostly all that they are.
AC responded to my post yesterday that apparently I wasn’t too sanguine about the “kids” who will be in the rotation next year if they don’t sign someone. The issue is that we don’t really know – they haven’t done it before. There is no way that Julio Urias is allowed to throw 177 innings in the regular season next year. Our host compared him to Corey Kluber who only threw 35 innings last season but there is no comparison – he surpassed 200 IP 5 consecutive seasons (2014 – 2018) so he doesn’t have a young arm and he has been there before. Same with Tony Gonsolin – he threw 81 innings between AAA and MLB last year and was a reliever before last season.
So – the Dodgers are looking for elite players to put them over the post-season hump. They have done nothing thus far except lost Ryu and Hill and sign Blake Treinen, with has 4.90 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 2019.
The off-season isn’t over, but it isn’t immediately apparent where the transfusion of elite players is coming from.
The idea that the Dodgers are cheap or are looking to gouge fans is just wrong – they have spent tons on renovating Dodger stadium, rebuilding scouting networks, especially in Latin America, they have totally re-worked their player development system, have invested in technology and in analysis and have had a top-5 payroll every year. In fact, improvements in player development cannot be overstated – just look at all of the talent that they have reaped from the minors in recent years – many times guys who weren’t really supposed to have the impact that they have had.
The question at this point though has to be whether they have a Plan B or C (assuming that Plan A was Gerrit Cole) and if so, why at this point they have been unable to add the elite talent that they need to stay in the race for the Series. As an outsider, it sure seems as if they are unable to get anything done.
BREAKING NEWS: Dodgers spend big this off-season!
… On an analytics company:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-16/mark-cuban-sells-sports-technology-company-to-dodgers-owners
AF said they are looking at 12 front line players. So far the score card is:
Cole, signs with Yankees
Strasburg, resigns with Nats
Rendon, signs with Angel
Donaldson, expected to sign with Atl or DC
Lindor takes stalled
Betts, not much news and Boston probably wants to much
Bumgarner, signs with Dbacks
Ryu, sounds like the Dodgers haven’t really shown any interest yet
Treinen, signs with Dodgers
Betances, ?
Handler, no real news. But doubtful.
Aranado, doubtful
Kluber, signs with TX.
Rumors of Pederson and Hernandez being on the trading block but no real news. Any thoughts as to who the Dodgers might target?
I wonder how AF views the value of Urias vs the value of May. Would he consider a trade involving Ruiz and Urias if he doesn’t want to trade May? Or does he view Urias as the pitcher with greater value to the Dodgers? How would the Indians react to a package including Ruiz and Urias as opposed to Ruiz and May?
Assuming that Clevinger isn’t going to happen and that a trade would only involve Lindor, we would first have to re-sign Ryu before it would make sense to trade either Urias or May.
How do the rest of you value Urias vs May?
We can debate back and forth all we want but at the end of the day, I see the Dodgers repeating what happened this year again next year unless they come up with another upper tier starter. PERIOD
An add: reports are that Dodgers trade talks with Cleveland “have stalled,” and there is no likelihood of any deal at this time. That is about what we heard last winter, with regard to various trade talks. Have the Dodgers pulled off even one notable offseason trade in the last few years? The only one before that was essentially Kemp for Grandal, whatever that was worth. It’s like a store putting on sales, but overpricing the value of their best merchandise, so that no one buys anything, maybe a few people purchase one of the cheaper items, but most don’t even want to bother negotiating with the store.
If Clevinger is as good as touted, then a trade of Lux, May and Ruiz for him and Lindor, would be worth it, if the Dodgers would be able to sign Lindor long term. How much better would May be than Clevinger? How great would Lux be, better than .300 with 20 or less home runs a year? Ruiz could be good ,but you don’t need three catchers, and we have Smith plus that other one (Fontana?) who is supposed to be good. If Ruiz is really good, then Smith becomes expendable, but we won’t know that for two years, and by then our no-titles streak will be 34 and counting. Now, if the best scouts project May to be a superstar pitcher, then I might reconsider this, but I have not heard those kind of predictions. If we do not want to trade May or Lux, we cannot make any meaningful trade, because there is no one else whom any team would give up anything significant for, and thus we must give up the charade, and just put essentially the same team out there next year that we had last year, minus Ryu, who is leaving. Even Friedman said that the team is missing something, and they would presumably still be missing it.
Besides, even if we try to hold on to all our cost-controlled players, we are going to lose a number of them to free agency, when we get outbid by the other teams. So for all those who might say, ‘We don’t want to sign someone for nine years when he might only be really good for six of them,” I would note that with our younger players most of them need a couple of years at least to blossom, so you only get four or so years out of them at best. With Seager, who was close to the #1 prospect in baseball, we have seen at best one strong season, injuries playing a part in that. And after two more years, he will leave. The main advantage in only having cost-controlled players is just that, they are much cheaper. toward payroll, which obviously matters more to the Dodgers than to some of the other teams. And averaging out payroll for the last five years (the earliest of those including the contracts which the Dodgers overpaid for when they were trying to get the fan base back and secure the TV contract), does not paint an accurate picture of the current trend.
I think it’s all about keeping the Dodgers competitive year after year rather than the boom or bust strategies of many of the other organisations.
RedSox and Cubs for example, already know in December that they will be winning Jack next season.
We get to go to the dance year on year.
Difficult to do both IMO.
2D2, I really appreciate your posts! You put a lot of time, research, and effort into making my daily life more enjoyable. Thanks!!
I don’t like for the Dodgers to have Players with huge contracts that no longer live up to those contracts. Yes, I would have been happy with Cole now but there might be more years of his tenure with the Dodgers that I wished he were not a Dodger. I would prefer paying $40M a year for 3 or 4 years than something less per year for 9 years.
The Dodgers need a pitcher that can throw 220 plus innings including playoffs. Clevinger might be that pitcher so they should be willing to give up prospects not named Lux and May to get him.
Adding Hill to join the rotation in August might be a good move on a one year contract.
Smith, Lux, Lindor, Bellinger up the middle would be a great defense.
Betts and Pederson in the outfield corners and Seager and Taylor in the infield corners would be fun for me.
Like Jon Heyman said, the only player who could be on this Dodger team is a “superstar.”
The Dodgers made a big play for Cole and Rendon was not an LA Guy!
Feel free to insert your own narrative regardless of the facts.
The Last 5 Years: Best Record in Baseball. Largest Payroll in Baseball.
When you say they are cheap, won’t spend money or can’t win, you might as well get a tattoo on your forehead saying “I am a Dumbass.”
I don’t have to call you one. You brand yourself…
Very good read 2D2 and the parody on Dear Mr. Fantasy was excellent. I cannot make a prediction on the team for next year. I am not as knowledgeable as everyone who comments here, All I have is a hope to see the team go farther than last year. But, if not, will still root for them and always be a fan. Thanks to everyone here for their input.
Before wishing you a Merry Christmas I have a couple of comments. Please bear in mind that I don’t know as much about baseball as you do. It´s a shame our team definitely don’t have the same interest as other teams to win the World Series. When it comes to hiring the best players, the Dodgers’ offers always remain a couple of millions or a couple of years below the others. This time we will compete again with a team similar to the previous years. It exceeds the average, but it is not substantially higher. It is clear that this is because the Management is more interested in making money, which is fair. They are in it for business not for fun. The same cannot be said of the Yankees, they also do business, but when they want to win they spend, period. That’s why I don’t have many expectations.
Certainly, if the team has flaws, the only way to support them is to acquire players that fill those needs. Undoubtedly, when that is not done, the needs will persist, unless by chance, or luck, something unexpected happens. Thus, for the boys in blue, any chance of winning the World Series depends, as usual, on the unexpected. That is certainly tiresome, but also better to acknowledge if you are a fan of such a team
Well I say goodbye for now. I hope everyone enjoy the holidays parties in the company of your loved ones.
From Costa Rica, Merry Christmas
Carlos Zamora.
So, looking at the numbers, the Dodgers don’t have to do anything. That would be an exceptional team. If AJ Pollock stays healthy, I think those numbers play. I think Julio Urias will post better numbers, particularly the ERA. Expect improved numbers from Joe Kelly, who can be totally dominate. I found it interesting that Jon Heyman pointed out that the Dodgers roster is so good that only a superstar could make it. Probably why we read so much about the Dodgers looking for only elite players.
Jorge Castillo’s story in today’s LA Times pointed out as names connected to the Dodgers continue to slip away, the team’s wish list is still viable with pretty much all the focus centered on Francisco Lindor and to a lesser extent Mike Clevinger.
The Dodgers believe that Lindor is the premier player who can get them over the October slump.
If they can acquire Clevinger, he would pitch between Buehler and Kershaw. But it would cost Dustin May and the Dodgers aren’t in dire need of rotation help.
The Dodgers obviously don’t want to give up Gavin Lux, who many in baseball think will be the next Lindor, and is controllable for six years, not two.
I’m wondering where all this leaves Ryu, who would seem likely to re-sign with the Dodgers. That may depend on whether the Dodgers can acquire Clevinger without giving up May.
Any trades will also involve MLB roster players as well as prospects so there will be some change.
Dodgers are going to stay below cbt. New minority owners in the mix. Front office just cares about profit. Fans are mad because of lies. Friedman and roberts said it was time to be aggressive. Actions speak louder than words. 0 moves. Dodgers as constructed arent going to win the world series. Mic drop
Don’t see AJ Pollock hitting 22 HR’s. His career high was 21 in 460 PA in 2018. He hit 20 HR in 673 PA in 2015. With his diminishing skills he’ll platoon with a LH hitter (Beatty, Joc, Rios) he might not get as many AB’s in 2020 even if he stays healthy.
Keith Law
Jeff: Dodgers linked to Lindor & Clevinger a lot recently, what would be a fair exchange for both sides in your opinion?
Keith Law: Depends on whether Seager is in the deal, but I think the Dodgers would have to put Keibert Ruiz, one of Josiah Gray/Tony Gonsolin, and Jeter Downs in such a trade. Cleveland shouldn’t sell those two guys for less than a home run package and I think that would be one.
I will check if my favorite tease simulator concurs with this value after the dog walk
Excellent choice of music.
That’s 313 HR! I’ll take it!
I pretty much agree in principle, and I hope you are right about AJ Pollock.
I think Ruiz will be on the team by the break and look for an ERA of around 3.00 from Julio. I see you have him at 177 IP. I think that’s about right. Some say he can’t pitch that many, because he only pitched 80 innings last year. But then they want Kluber who only pitched 35. BOOM!
I see Julio as the #2. Kershaw is also capable of putting up a sub 3.00 ERA… that remains to be seen.
So many fans look at last year and think that is what they will see this year. That is especially wrong when it comes to pitching and especially relievers.