During the dialogue about the Dodgers non-desire to pay for $100M+ pitching, Scott Andes stated “Those guys are expensive because hold onto your hats here, they are good, and you get what you pay for.” Since he knows the Dodgers can afford to sign 10 Greinke’s, obviously he feels the Dodgers have no salary cap to concern themselves with. I like it when people like to spend other people’s money. This is not intended in any way to pick on Scott. He espoused what many believe, and I just used his comment from the other day. FAZ has gone through 3 FA campaigns , so let’s take a look at what FAZ decided to pass up.
For the 2014 – 2015 FA class, there were approximately 16 FA starting pitchers for consideration: Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, James Shields, Ervin Santana, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, Justin Masterson, Jason Hammel, Jake Peavy, Edison Volquez, AJ Burnett, Ryan Vogelsong, Aaron Harang, Brett Anderson, Chris Capuano, Chad Billingsley.
Let’s forget about Jon Lester. He was never going to play anywhere except for the Cubs. Lester (and all former Red Sox players) loved playing for Theo Epstein led teams. The only other spot he was about to consider was Boston. So LA was never on his radar.
Max Scherzer was never going to sign for less than for $200M. He believes he is every bit the pitcher Clayton Kershaw is, and was not going to settle for less. He got close with a 7 year $210M. However, per the Detroit Free Press January 22, 2015, “the structure is designed to pay him $15 million annually for 14 years…”
Scherzer received a record $50-million signing bonus, of which $5 million is due for 2015 and $15 million each in 2019, 2020 and 2021. The money is due in 12 equal semimonthly installments in those years, from April through September. In addition, he receives salaries of $10 million for 2015, $15 million each for 2016-2018, and $35 million in each of the final three years. That $105 million total due over the final three years will be deferred without interest and paid in $15 million installments each July 1 from 2022 through 2028. This is the largest deferred salary contract in MLB history.
Also consider, with Greinke’s opt out clause due to kick in for 2016 and Clayton for 2019, the Dodgers were not going to sign another $200M pitcher. One final nail was that Max Scherzer’s ego (deservedly so) was not going to allow him to play in LA as a #3.
James Shields 4 year $75M, Ervin Santana 5 year $55M, Francisco Liriano 3 year $39M (higher AAV than McCarthy), Jason Hammel 2 year $20M, Jake Peavy 2 year $24M, Edison Volquez 2 year $20M. Who would you have signed (if any wanted to sign in LA)?
Are the Padres/ChiSox getting what they paid for James Shields? Is it because he is that good? Ervin Santana did not sign a long-term contract for 2014 because of long-term health concerns and instead signed a one year deal with the Braves. Santana did not like his one year in the NL and wanted back in the AL. McCarthy outpitched him in 2014, and signed for less years and less total dollars. In addition, Santana was suspended for the first 80 games of the 2015 season due to PED (Stanozolol), and would have been suspended for the playoffs.
Francisco Liriano had a good 1st year with Pittsburgh, but not so much the 2nd year. He did pitch better when traded to Toronto, but again has started 2017 roughly. In hindsight, I will concede that Liriano might have been a good selection for 2015 only. Being another reclamation project for Searage might have been a positive. The one thing I do not know is whether he is a good teammate/citizen which certainly would have been a criterion.
Jason Hammel made it clear that he wanted to go back to the Cubs. The Cubs made a fair offer and he took it. It is possible that Hammel might have taken the McCarthy offer from the Dodgers. Hammel signed on December 12, 2014 so we do not know if the Dodgers ever made an offer. McCarthy signed on December 16. Again in hindsight, I will concede that Hammel may have been a good choice for 2015 if it was available.
For 2015-2016 there were approximately 19 FA pitchers. David Price, Zach Greinke, Jordan Zimmerman, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chin, Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, John Lackey, Hisashi Iwakuma, Marco Estrada, J. A. Happ, Mat Latos, Doug Fister, Rich Hill.
Are the Red Sox, DBacks, Tigers getting what they paid for? Price, Greinke, and Zimmerman, are three of the four pitchers signed for $100M+. Greinke is getting less reliable and seems to be regressing. At least his decreasing fastball velocity would indicate so. Zimmerman is bordering on bust, and we do not know what will happen with Price. But with a 3 WAR the Red Sox did not get comparable value to his contract in 2016. Who knew how good Happ would turn out (I guess the Blue Jays did). Iwakuma signed a one year contract and two additional one year club options. He would not have signed that with the Dodgers.
Johnny Cueto the fourth $100M+ pitcher admittedly had a very good year with the Giants. There are concerns about his elbow, and it has acted up with the Reds, Royals, and Giants. Will it hold up? With the expected group of FA pitchers following the 2017 season, I am sure he is hoping that it holds up and he can opt out. But is the risk worth $130M? The Dodgers did not think so. Would he have signed a 2 year deal for higher AAV to go back on the market earlier? IMO no, because I believe he wanted security just in case that elbow blew up. Some of you believe he was worth the risk. With AGon/Ethier/Crawford contracts still on the books, many of us others do not believe that the risk was worth the cost.
Wei-Yin Chen 5 years $80M, -.2 WAR in 2016 was not a very good return. His pitching metrics have not improved considerably in 2017. Ian Kennedy – 5 year $70M, had a decent year in 2016, but will it continue for four more years. KC is trying to unload him and there are no takers. Marco Estrada signed very quickly with the Blue Jays. He might have been a 2-3 year option had he remained a FA.
Jeff Samardzija was not a good FA contract. His 2016 year may have been worth the one year contract, but his 2017 is starting a lot like his 2015 season, when he led the league in hits against, ER allowed, and HR allowed. His 2017-2020 contract years are more of a risk that is pointing in the negative direction.
Lackey was a good 2 year deal, but he wanted the Cubs (can you say Theo Epstein?). Mike Leake may turn out to be a decent contract, but it is still 5 years and $80M.
For 2016-2017 there were approximately 11 FA pitchers. Ivan Nova, Rich Hill, Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, Andrew Cashner, Bartolo Colon, Edison Volquez, R. A. Dickey, Jhoulys Chacin, Brett Anderson. Which of those pitchers other than Rich Hill could even come close to giving the Dodgers what they need? Of course he has to pitch, just like Madison Bumgarner has to pitch to be effective (and he isn’t because of something stupid). Hill is adjusting his grip, so let’s see where this ends up. The skeptics may indeed prove to be right. I am just not convinced yet.
The common complaint about McCarthy was his injuries. His two serious injuries were shoulder (requiring surgery in 2009), and epidural hemorrhage, brain contusion and skull fracture (from line drive to head) requiring surgery. Both injuries needed additional treatment in 2013. In 2014, the Yankees traded for McCarthy and told him to go back to his cut fastball which the DBacks told him to discontinue. Perhaps that was the resurgence of his career. There was no issue with his elbow after a 2008 inflammation. No UCL tear. 14 starts, averaging nearly 6.5 IP, 2.89 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 1.151 WHIP with the Yankees, was a good indicator that McCarthy was a good back end of the rotation risk. His first two years were a bust, but the way he has started this year, I am glad he signed for 4. It looks like there could be some return.
Scott Kazmir had two good years before he signed the three year deal with a one year opt out. His 2015 was better than 2014, so the trend was positive. With the 2016-2017 FA pitching class (as identified above), why wouldn’t he believe (or the Dodgers) that he would be at the top of the list come FA time. He may never pitch again, or he might be able to come back and pitch later in the year, or maybe next year. 3 year $48M contract. All of the other comparable pitchers were for more money and years except for Lackey. They needed a pitcher, and signed one for the least number of years and dollars available. Scott was nothing more than a bridge to the next group. They gambled that he would opt out, and lost. They were not going to sign any of the others, so it was Kazmir or nobody.
FAZ had three FA campaigns, and selected McCarthy/Anderson for 2015; Maeda and Kazmir for 2016; Hill for 2017. None of them for more than $48M guaranteed. Skeptics like to rip on Anderson, but his 2015 was better than anyone expected for what should have been a #5. FAZ gambled that Anderson would not accept the QO and were wrong. First time in the history of the CBA did this happen, and there were three QO’s accepted. He was going to be 28 in 2016, and looking at the dollars thrown around pitching that FA season, why he didn’t reject the QO is a better question. Because of their low risk/high reward mentality, FAZ was looking for another J.A. Happ with McCarthy and Kazmir. Okay it didn’t work, but they do not have Samardzija, Leake, Chin, Kennedy, Shields, Zimmerman, Greinke, or any of the others blocking the future rotation coming in the next three years.
For this year, the FA pitching options are not a great selection. Some of the bigger names are Jake Arrieta, C.C. Sabathia, Jeremy Hellickson, Lackey, Estrada, Liriano, Chris Tillman, Hector Santiago, Lance Lynn, Michael Pineda, Tyler Chatwood, Alex Cobb, Wade Miley. Arrieta is going to get at least Cueto dollars, so he is not an option. I am bullish on Lance Lynn. We will have a full year to evaluate how he recovers from TJ surgery. Who would you target if any?
Discussion (68)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Terrible loss
Stripling nibbles way too much.
As soon a Romo gave up the HR you could see this coming – too many times in SF
Maybe the kid will hit one out
The dreaded pitch count may lose another game. Wood was cruising. Could have gone one more. Can’t stand watching Romo pitch right now. Terrible pitch selection by Baez.
Oops; Romo
Room 10.57 era
I was thinking, Posey will score from second eventually on the passed ball (Grandal lack of defense), but Romo took care of that
I said 2 days ago that Romo wasn’t all that.
He isn’t.
Are you guys sure Wood needs to stay in the pen?
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Evidently, this is the first time Bellinger has ever hit leadoff… in his life!
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It shows!
Buehler has pitched in 3 games this year. Three innings each games. He has given up no earn runs and struck out 15, I believe.
Chase de Jong was brought up by the Mariners today.
I believe it was Ken Gurnick who said we will see Beuhler this year.
I raise a practical question at this point, how much are the Dodgers going to have to pay for Bryce Harper?
Even though I like him and hope he gets it going, I have to think the reins on Toles are beginning to tighten. He needs to show more to justify a spot with the big club.
Hawkeye will be giddy when he hears about Bowden!
Bellinger leading off. Can’t say I saw that coming.
Doug Padilla , Mark Saxon, Jim Bowden and Jayson Stark just laid off by ESPN. Stupid.
Two nice bookends from AC & dodgerrick. The first, ostensibly on those we did not sign, the second on those we did sign. A mixed bag.
I think Dodger pitching will be addressed by those in the organization starting with Urias this week, who will be fine, it’s the others guys that concern me; blister boy, & Maeda. I do like the idea of Hill starting in the BP, but the recurring blisters does not instill any confidence in this guy pitching any significant innings.
The Dodger hitting woes will also be addressed by those in the organization – Bellinger already here with Verdugo to follow, and the return of Forsyth. Big question is what to do with the declining Gonzalez? The swing & miss Pederson, and the do nothing Utley & Van Slyke & Hatcher.
If the team still does not hit expect FAZ to make a trade for a RH outfield bat.
This is a really solid analysis – to a point. I agree that hindsight is 20/20 and that all free agent signings have risk. If you want to avoid all risk I guess you never sign anyone. (There is risk associated with that approach as well – if you never sign anyone to fill in the gaps, isn’t there risk in that strategy as well?)
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One assumption made by the author is that all pitchers who sign elsewhere would have the same performance if they had signed with the Dodgers. We know that isn’t true though – LA is a favorable place to pitch – a pitchers park and a team with an above average defense and other resources. An example is Greinke – does anyone believe that his numbers would have been the same in LA last year as they were in the desert?
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Another assumption is that if a pitcher (like Greinke) has one bad year in a 5 year contract that they will all be bad (sort of like some are crowing about McCarthy’s successes thus far this year in the face of 2 nothing seasons in the 1st 4 years of his deal). We don’t yet know how Price or Greinke will do in the remaining years of their deals.
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What we do know is that Brett Anderson had one good season at $10MM and one horrid one at $16.7 MM; Brandon McCarthy has had 2 horrible seasons at $13.5MM each and the start of one good one (this year) at $12.5MM. Rich Hill made 6 starts after the Dodgers acquired him 8/1 at the cost of $2MM (his pro-rated deal last year) – he missed a little more than 1/2 of the season remaining after he was acquired. This year he has done nothing thus far at $16MM and he is under contract for 2 more seasons. Scott Kazmir had 2/3 of a mediocre season at $16MM last year and is under contract for this year and next – he has done nothing this year for his $16MM. Of the pitchers signed by the Braintrust as free agents, the best return has been on Kenta Maeda who, at $3MM/year plus incentives is a good deal even if his arm falls off given his solid performance last season.
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Additionally, the Braintrust acquired the following arms to help a constantly injured and flagging rotation:
Mat Latos ($3.4MM out of the $9.4MM for 2015)
Bronson Arroyo ($3.5MM out of the $9.5MM for 2015 plus $4.5MM buyout for 2016, although the Braves paid most of this)
Scott Baker ($1MM in 2015)
Brandon Beachy ($2.5MM in 2015; $1.5MM in 2016)
Bud Norris ($1.3MM out of $2.5MM with the Braves paying for most)
Alex Wood ($190K out of $520K in 2015; $530K in 2016; $2.8MM in 2017)
These are just starting pitchers and don’t include relievers or the seemingly infinite number of Cubans signed by the Braintrust.
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Finally, this doesn’t include the possibility of acquiring starting pitchers by trade. (Look at the deadline deals above – trading does happen.) The Dodgers acquired Grandal that way after all. They acquired Rich Hill that way too. Which pitchers might have been available by trade and the cost to obtain them is unknown.
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As to the rose-colored-glasses crowd, I hope that the Uriases and Buehlers of the world work out but we know that even top prospects have about a 1 in 5 chance of panning out. Not all of the great pitching prospects will be solid major leaguers. The past 15 years show us that. A team has to be willing and able to fill in the gaps from outside the organization. Dodger teams from the past did this well – Claude Osteen, Burt Hooton, Jerry Reuss, and others gave the rotation depth and quality innings when they weren’t available from within the organization.
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I can’t remember a more bedraggled, injury-prone, inconsistent group of Dodger starting pitchers ever. Even in the bad seasons in LA like ’67 and ’68 the Dodgers had better pitching than they do now. (I would take a Sutton, Drysdale, Bill Singer and Claude Osteen – the foursome from ’67-’68, or Rich Sutcliffe, Sutton, Hooton & Reuss (’79) or Hersheiser, Candiotti, Ramon Martinez, Kevin Gross & Pedro Astacio (’92) over the starters we have now and those were some of the really bad Dodger teams.)
RC 9-SJ giants 1. It’s great to beat the giants. Buehler goes today.
If we ever win a world series again, none of the starters will be “overpaid” or “overvalued”. All teams are trying to, but only one wins it all. For the others, these contracts are “so what?” Even Kershaw, at 30,000,000 per is in that category. 0 for his career. Really never really close. Dodgers signings are the shits because none has produced a title. We have to keep going to the market because 1-5 might be ok. How much we pay depends on the market, which, in turn, depends on the money the team is making. Keep in mind that the Marlins will probably sell for 1.3 bil. Winning a championship will make all the spending ok. At least until the next off season. If minor league pitchers were any good, no one would have to go the market, but very few turn out to be solid, major league starting pitchers. BTW: I saw Dallas Keuchel pitch for the Astros yesterday. THERE is a starting pitcher. Manager kept him in to complete the game even though he had some trouble in the last inning. When is he a free agent? Give him the bank. He cannot be overvalued. Urias is the best minor league pitcher we have had in years; we have seen, and will see again, just how good “the best” is. Not a MLB hitter around fears him, believe me. I just hope he is good tomorrow. We can go from there.
AC, thanks for taking the time to write a thorough review of pitching options that FAZ had–very informative.
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We may never know with assurance what FAZ might had offered to free agents or in trade. FAZ could have been very wise or lucky that a player didn’t accept their offer or that another team might have made a better.
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I have no idea what Scherzer would have accepted from the Dodgers. But I would think that if he could have gotten more in his first two years and then used an opt out to get closer to the same for the next five years it would have been tempting even if he had to pitcher in the West. A front loaded 7 year contract would have given him long-term financial protection should he be injured in his first two years. So, I have to disagree with you that Scherzer would not have accepted a front loaded contract from the Dodgers. Then again, maybe FAZ offered him one and he didn’t sign it.
I agree with Faz wanting the 1st round pick, who knew that Anderson would join Matt Weiters and Colby Rasmus as the only players to ever accept the QO? Kendrick probably wishes he did as no one offered him more than the Dodgers 2 year $20M deal to return. Teams shied away from giving up a pick except for top level talent. Wipe the slate, what’s done is done and if Anderson was healthy that year it would have looked good. Now giving Kazmir a player opt out is another story. He didn’t really like the Dodgers but wisely knew he would get no better offers so opted in. Whether he contributes any more is an open question but he was coming off a decent season when he was signed. Risk vs. reward and all of that factored in. I don’t think they want to take on much risk going forward.
Excellent analysis Always Compete! However, don’t know if you can win anybody over who believes Dodgers can afford 10 Greinkes AND 20 Cuetos.
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Only thing I take issue with is Anderson. Don’t know why you (and Mark) believe FAZ was surprised by Anderson taking QO. I gotta believe, they considered he might take it before they offered it to them. Question, as you stated, is why Anderson took it. 28 yr old starters coming off a 180 IP of 3.69 ERA ball, averaging 5.8 innings in 31 starts are always welcome. Does anyone really believe FAZ lost ANY sleep over Anderson signing a one year $16M contract after that season? It will be interesting to see what Theo does if Anderson has a good year this year with Chicago. Qualifying Offer (maybe he can’t with new rules)????
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As far as 2017 free agents, it’s the price, it’s always the price with FAZ, as it should be!!
Nice post AC! Hindsight is 20/20 so I tend not to look at the what if’s but most of the signings that were made did not work out that well, including the Dodger’s. If McCarthy had been healthy all along his signing would stand out. Maeda’s contract prevents a real loss of $$ and his first season was good.
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I would love to have Arrieta in the rotation but at what cost? He has not had the arm issues that plagued Cueto. Lynn is interesting, he is a real scrapper and fits the Faz profile of upside at a discount. You would think the Cubs and Cards have first shot at either if they want them. Like Mark, I think they are done for next year with the arms they already have and ones on the way. McCarthy, Kazmir and Ryu will be in their final contract years, Hill will have 2 left, Kershaw will not be allowed to leave (hopefully) and Maeda’s contract is team friendly.
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Bellinger showed me a good arm when he almost threw out Posey at 3B, and good speed when he legged out a hit. He has a good eye and ridiculous bat speed and dares pitchers to throw inside. I am reminded of when Beltre was called up at an even younger age and never went back down. I think he is here to stay unless he just can’t hit at this level as he does everything else already.
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Anyone but AGon, Grandal or a pitcher would have been sent on that flyball and force a perfect throw to the plate. But it was a pitcher up and hard to predict he would do what he did. Next batter Toles chased ball 4 to strike out and had a dead red fastball on 3-1 I was surprised he missed.
Great article, AC!
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Who would I target? Someone undervalued with an injury history!
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Everyone wanted Greinke after his great year, but past performance is not an indicator of future performance!
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The fact is: the Dodgers probably don’t need any help. I am assuming Kazmir is done (although maybe he isn’t). That leaves the Dodgers with these options next year:
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1. Kershaw
2. Hill
3. Urias
4. Ryu
5. McCarthy
6. Maeda (?)
7. Stewart
8. Buehler
9. White
10. Oaks
11. Maybe Alvarez
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There’s more in 2019. I could actually see another trade.
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On Bellinger:
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You can just see the way he plays the game – he’s so smoothe. He has played very little LF but looked like he belonged. 1 infield hustle hit and 1 BB on his debut. I’ll take it. I think he’s here to stay. Roberts should have pinch ran for A-Gon when he got to 3B. I seldom second-guess but that was a blunder. A faster runner would have tried to score… maybe he would have been out, but you can’t send A-Gon!