MLB Amateur Draft June 3-5

Most teams realize that the best and least cost approach to building a perennial winner is through draft and development. With a little more than 3 weeks before the June Amateur Draft, teams are very busy looking at who the next Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, or Aaron Judge may be. If it were an exact science all three would have been the overall #1 pick and yet they were not. Kershaw was the closest at #7 overall, but Trout went #25 overall and Judge went #32 overall.

10 years ago, the Angels selected Mike Trout in the 1st round. He was considered a very good high school hitter, but nobody expected Trout to become the player he is today. 24 teams thought someone else was better. In about 2 ½ minor league seasons, Trout hit a combined 23 HR’s. He hit 30 in his rookie 2012 season at the ripe old age of 20.

The reason I bring up Mike Trout is because the Dodgers select #25 this year. Can lightning strike twice in ten-year increments? Highly unlikely since this is considered a weak draft in general. There is no Casey Mize this year. Mize was considered an absolute can’t miss last year, and he has not disappointed the Tigers. The next Justin Verlander for Detroit? He certainly has a great shot at it.

The first 6 teams are looking for bats because there is no sure thing pitcher this year. This year the consensus overall #1 pick is Oregon State catcher Audley Rutschman, this year’s Joey Bart. While considered the best prospect in this group, the draft pundits are not convinced that the Orioles will select Rutschman and may instead select Cal 1B Andrew Vaughn because he may sign for less. But if the general consensus of the pundits is correct, the first three picks will be:

Orioles – Audley Rutschman, Catcher – Oregon State
KC Royals – Bobby Witt Jr., SS – High School (Texas)
White Sox – Andrew Vaughn, 1B – Cal

The best pitcher considered in this draft seems locked in for the Reds at #7. The Reds covet college pitchers and TCU LHP Nick Lodolo seems to be their target. West Virginia RHP Alek Manoah would also be a consideration here. Other top college pitchers include Jackson Rutledge RHP, San Jacinto JC, and Kentucky LHP, Zack Thompson. The top high school pitcher seems to settle on RHP Matt Allan who many believe the Giants covet. There are other high school pitchers that will be considered, but most have top college programs they are committed to, and teams may not be willing to spend that level of bonus dollars on good but probably not elite high school pitchers. One of the best high school pitchers but probably will not be signable is RHP Jack Leiter (yeah from that Leiter family), but he is committed to Vandy and is considered unsignable. Maybe with all of the bonus pool dollars, the DBacks take a chance.

The DBacks have 7 of the first 75 picks, so they could get well quickly. Their bonus pool is at $16,093,700 so they have the dollars to spend. The Dodgers select #25 overall, #31, #78, and #102, and have half the bonus pool the DBacks have at $8,069,100.Since a team can exceed the bonus pool allocation by 5% without penalty, the budget will settle at $8,472,000.

Just as in prior years, the Dodgers targets or draft strategy is not well known, and draft pundits are all over the board on who the Dodgers might select at #25 and #31. Three years ago, the pick (#20 overall) was projected to be a HS SS. There were five to choose from, Gavin Lux, Delvin Perez, Hudson Potts, Carter Kieboom, and my favorite Bo Bichette. I was disappointed that the Dodgers selected Lux over Bichette. While I still believe that Bichette has the higher floor and ceiling, Lux is turning out to be a very good pick. Kieboom has appeared with the ML Nationals, and Bichette is at AAA waiting to join his uber prospect teammate Vlad Jr. in Toronto. Potts is at AA with Lux, and Perez is struggling a bit at the start of his career and is playing in the Midwest League (A).

Two years ago, the consensus was that the Dodgers would select a CF. They were keying on Alabama prep CF Bubba Thompson, but when Jeren Kendall fell, the Dodgers selected him instead. Kendall, who is currently on the IL, has MLB defense at the GG level and MLB speed, but a high school bat. There are rumblings that he is not taking to coaching as well as the organization had hoped, and he is still a swing and miss type hitter. I have said it before, the Dodgers need to hire Brett Butler to be Kendall’s baseball mentor. He could be a perennial AS if he were to make contact. But the HR is in his blood, and he lusts for that power.

Last year, nobody knew what the Dodgers were looking at, and they selected a HS pitcher as the best prospect available at that slot. They could not come to an agreement and JT Ginn did not sign and instead honored his commitment to Mississippi State, and is pitching very well. He is settling in at #2 in the MSU rotation. The Dodgers may get another shot at Ginn next year as he will be a Sophomore eligible college player.

So who do some think the Dodgers may select? There is not one mock draft that I have seen that shows the Dodgers selecting the same player in more than one.

Potential Hitters:

Brett Baty – 3B – HS – Perhaps top prep power hitter. Problem is that he will be 19 ½ at the draft and while he would be a Top 15 pick were he 18, many teams will back off because of his age, so he could fall to the Dodgers.

Keoni Cavaco – 3B – HS – Late bloomer. Not on anybody’s radar until this Spring. He will probably be under slot pick but has high potential. It is a risk pick that could work or flame out. Sounds like a Dodger gamble, but maybe at 31 if he lasts that long.

Gunnar Henderson – SS – HS – A quickly maturing (physically and tools) SS. Another potential #31 pick.

Kody Hoese – 3B – Tulane – Big time college power. Currently tied for 2nd in NCAA with 21. Behind JJ Bleday (Vandy) at 23.

My Pick – Braden Shewmake – SS – Texas A&M – Tremendous bat to ball skills and bat speed. He can be fooled and be out on his front foot and still slap an opposite field single. Average but accurate arm. Does not currently show power, but at 6’ 4” he could certainly develop average power. A total unselfish player who can and will play any infield position. This may be a reach at this spot. High floor, not as high ceiling.

Other potential – Brooks Lee – HS SS, Will Wilson NC State SS – Logan Davidson – Clemson (good aluminum bat; not so much wood bat). Solid defensive SS.

If Josh Jung – Texas Tech 3B falls to #25, the Dodgers could very well select him. A top college hitter who is developing more power.

One OFer they could see drop would be Missouri’s Kameron Misner. One of the best polished college hitters with 20-20 potential. Great eye at the plate with good bat speed. His power will increase as he grows into his 6’4” frame. He can stick in CF, but has the tools for RF. I hate making comparisons, but somehow I am reminded of a LH George Springer. I am not predicting it, but I would not be surprised.

Potential Pitchers:

This is a very weak college pitcher class. There are also not a lot of high ceiling HS pitching prospects. Pitchers who are could be around when the Dodgers select:

HS RHP – Quinn Priester – 4 seam fastball can reach 97, while his heavy 2 seamer hits around 92 with a lot of movement. Has one of the better HS curves he throws at 80 with excellent spin. His change is a work in progress. TCU Commitment.

HS RHP Danny Espino – Many tie Espino to LAD because he is very similar to JT Ginn; undersized who throws exceptionally hard. He is routinely 94-97 and has hit triple digits. Also has an effective 2 seamer with heavy sink. He also has two swing and miss breaking ball; a low 80’s slider with movement, and a high 70’s curveball. He currently overpowers batters, so he is going to need to learn to pitch rather than throw. The problem is that it is rumored he is going to want $4MM to get out of his LSU commitment. The current FO makeup does not seem inclined to offer 50% of their bonus pool money to one player. They got burned last year with a HS pitcher, so I do not see them doing it again.

George Kirby – RHP – Elon – He is a potential 4 pitch pitcher with a lot of spin and movement in all of his pitches. He has outstanding control. In his first 12 starts this season, Kirby had 96 strikeouts to 6 walks. Easily projectable to be a #3 starter. With four pitches, he has the ability to start, but was a tremendous reliever in the Cape Cod league. He seems to be a more polished Tony Gonsolin type pitcher. Chances are he will not last until #25, but I would expect the Dodgers to look long at Kirby if he does.

Perhaps the pitcher the Dodgers are hoping drops is Kentucky LHP Zack Thompson. Thompson is a college pitcher with four solid pitches. He could drop to the Dodgers because there are health concerns with his elbow. However with the way he has pitched this year, much of that concern seems to be waning. But this is the exact type of pitcher the Dodgers would covet. Potential #2 to #3 in the rotation. You know the Dodgers like him…LHP, from Kentucky, first name Zach.

Jack Leiter could fall to the Dodgers, but I doubt that the Dodgers will take that chance since they lost out on Ginn last year. See Espino above.

One pundit had the Dodgers selecting RHP Carter Stewart at #31. Carter was the #8 pick last year by the Braves but did not sign. He was supposed to join Ginn at Mississippi St. but went the JC route so he would be draftable again. He did not have a standout year at Eastern Florida State College, and he is slipping quickly. I believe the pundit is thinking the Dodgers roll the dice and select Stewart at #31 and make him a below slot offer to see if he will bite.

If Kirby or Thompson fall to the Dodgers at #25, I think they would go the college pitcher route. If not, I think they will take a college infielder; Shewmake, Hoese, Jung, or OF – Kameron Misner. The picks will change a thousand times before the actual draft, and I will try to refine it as we get closer to draft day. But at least there are some names that we might become familiar with as we approach June 3.