Baseball America just released their Midseason Prospect Report and most notably, Cody Bellinger is no longer a prospect. Go figure – I guess hitting 25 HR for the Dodgers does bad things to your prospect status. This time, the Dodgers have only four prospects in the Top 100.
- Willie Calhoun jumped from #92 to #73 – That’s what happens when you hit those long-balls.
- Yadier Alvarez dropped from #26 to #59 – That’s what being fat between the ears will get you.
- Alex Verdugo jumped up to #35 from #58 – That’s what happens when you hit .350.
- Walker Freaking Buehler went from Not Rated to #17! – Wow! That’s what happens when you are really, really good!
Buehler jumped ahead of Michael Kopech, the White Sox phenomenon who can throw like 150. Anytime the Dodgers talk trade, the other teams are asking for Buehler and Verdugo. I would not entertain trading either one and teams are losing interest in Alvarez who looks to me to be a closer. Baseball America wrote this about Buehler and Kopech:
A scout who has seen both Kopech and Buehler said he loved both of their arms, but it was Buehler’s stuff that left him shaking his head.
“It’s in the top group of arms I’ve seen,” the scout said. “He’s got No. 1-type starter stuff. He’s got four pitches that all have a chance to be average or better. Everything was electric. Everything was a swing and miss pitch.”
“His arm is fast,easy and loose,” the scout said. “He’s a future No.1. … I’d take either one of them right now,” the scout said, “but Buehler is more refined. Even though they are at the same level, Buehler is more advanced.”
BA went on to say that Buehler sat at 97-98 MPH, didn’t dip below 96 and touched 99 and that his fastball has “solid late movement.” They also said that “Buehler attacks and gets ahead of hitters.”
Walker Buehler is likely be in the Dodgers’ rotation next year. Kershaw, Wood, Buehler, Hill and Mac?
Rants and Raves
- The Cubs paid dearly to get Jose Quintana giving up Eloy Jimenez (Ranked #5) and Dylan Cease (#82) among others.
- On the previous thread, I saw AC’s link to Fanragsports. I like the idea of Zach Britton. Baltimore needs starters. Ryu and Maeda? What would it take?
- On Alex Verdugo: I heard he was not happy with batting 8th last night in the All-Star Game. “Well, you didn’t get a hit, so they were right! Grow up!” That may be his only issue.
Discussion (68)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Re Stanton: no
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He is a player I’d love to see on the Dodgers if only so we don’t have to face him. I get nervous every time he and Dbacks Goldsmith come to the plate.
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That being said, his contract length is a deal breaker. In the current era of no sterods/peds players age faster. Their performance degrades and they dont bounce back from injuries.
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The new contract paradigm may need to front load contracts. Over pay yearly from 25-31 but avoid much money beyond–money you can afford to loose when you DFA a player when you need the roster spot.
The 2018 payroll tax threshold is $197.
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2017 Dodger payroll includes 38 total players and $241,149,167 total salary.
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The 2018 payroll will not include Ethier at $17.5M, Crawford at $21.8M, Guerro at $7.5M for a total of $46M.
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McCarthy $11.5M, Gonzales $22.4M, Puig $9.2M, Kazmir $17.7M, Ryu $7.8M, Maeda $3.1M
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Those players total $71.7M
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2017 salary of Stanton $25M; Ozuna $3.5M but Ozuna is Arb eligible so that will jump to my wild guess of $12M. Together, Stanton and Ozuna payroll for 2018 might be $37M
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$241M less $71M plus $37M = $307M which would extend the Dodger consecutive year over the max non-penalty payroll level.
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Myself, I would only trade for Stanton if Ozuna came in the package but I can’t see the Dodgers making such a trade without getting under $197M payroll in 2018.
Red Sox DFA the Panda!
Taking a look at BA’s Top 100, I noticed that neither JDL or Grant Holmes are listed any longer. In addition, SFG #1 pitching prospect, Tyler Beede has also dropped out. Beede was included as one of the fastest dropping players in 2017. He is still young enough to turn it around, but it is still good to see the continuation of the SFG slide at both the ML level and MiLB level.
A look at the payroll tax penalty:
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2017 threshold: $195 million
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2018: $197 million
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2019: $206 million
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These are the penalties:
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• First time over: 20 percent tax on the overage
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• Second consecutive time: 30 percent
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• Third consecutive time: 50 percent
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There are also surtaxes:
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• Between $20 million and $40 million over the threshold: 12 percent
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• $40 million over: 42.5 percent
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• Second consecutive time $40 million over: 45 percent
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Th 42.5 percent tax rate, for example, is only on the dollars spent beyond the $40 million already above the threshold. So if the threshold is $195 million and a team spends $236 million, a potential 92.5 percent tax rate is applied only to the $1 million over $235 million, not the entire $41 million over the threshold.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
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2014/2017: $257.2 million payroll ($195 million threshold)
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Payroll: $62.2 million over threshold
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Tax: 20 percent for first time over ($12.4 million)
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Surtax: 42.5 percent on $22.2 million ($9.4 million)
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Total tax: $21.8 million
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2015/2018: $291.1 payroll ($197 million threshold)
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Payroll: $94.1 million over threshold
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Tax: 30 percent for second time over ($28.2 million)
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Surtax: 45 percent on $54.1 million ($24.3 million)
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Total tax: $52.5 million
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2016/2019: $275 million estimated payroll ($206 million threshold)
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Payroll: $69 million over threshold
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Tax: 50 percent for third time over ($34.5 million)
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Surtax: 45 percent on $29 million ($13.1 million)
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Total tax: $47.6 million
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Draft Pick Compensation: The changes are numerous and complex but address everything from the Qualifying Offer system to those that break the Luxury Tax.
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Clubs may not tender a Qualifying Offer to a player who has previously received a Qualifying Offer.
The time period during which a player can accept a Qualifying Offer will be extended from 7 to 10 days.
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Clubs signing a Free Agent subject to compensation will no longer forfeit a first round selection, but will be subject to the following:
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A non-market disqualified Revenue Sharing Payee Club shall forfeit its third highest remaining selection in the next Rule 4 Draft.
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A Luxury Tax offender shall forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest remaining selections in the next Rule 4 Draft and shall have its International Signing Bonus Pool (described below) reduced by $1,000,000 in the next full Signing Period.
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All other Clubs shall forfeit their second-highest remaining selection in the next Rule 4 Draft and shall have their International Signing Bonus Pool reduced by $500,000 in the next full Signing Bonus Period.
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All forfeited International Signing Bonus Pool monies will be distributed equally among all other Clubs. Competitive Balance Selections will be exempt from forfeiture.
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A Former Club of a Free Agent subject to draft pick compensation will receive the following:
A non-market disqualified Revenue Sharing Payee Club shall receive a selection immediately following the first round of the draft if the player signs a contract with a total guarantee of $50 million or more.
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Clubs that break the Luxury Tax threshold shall receive a draft selection immediately following the fourth round of the next Rule 4 Draft.
All other former clubs shall receive a selection immediately following the Competitive Balance Round B of the next Rule 4 Draft (which follows the second round).
You know with all this success in the last couple years and the real possibility of going to the WS in 2018, it’s a little sad that Vin retired. Oh well, Maybe just Maybe…
I miss going to a lot of games at the Ravine. The sandwich at Phillipes before, parking at the train station and jumping on a bus full of Blue fans and hell the parking was free.
There’s a silver lining to all this, I found Rancho Cucamunga!, we all know that AA is where they make it or look into insurance or plumbing. Then there’s this kid who rolls into town and the buzz starts. Sweet..
Those with a chance, grab minor lg. game. You might get hooked.
Sorry for rambling.. It beats trading away some of my favs.
Amen to the amens. A lot of it comes from “its not my money”??
Patience is the key… BP n no mas!
I stuck my neck out projecting Seager n Cody to my friends and I will go out on that limb again…Don’t even think of trading Beuhler!!
The talk about Stanton is fun but not realistic in my opinion. Even if we were to offer Puig would Mattingly want him? Will Mattingly be there after the ownership change? Personally, I’d rather have Ozuna. It think more realistic options would be Martinez who is a free agent after the season giving FAZ the option to resign him or let him walk, McCutchen who has 14.7M option for next year with a 1M buyout and Avisail Garcia. Garcia is slashing 310/353/497 (850 OPS) and 400/416/573 (989 OPS) against lefties. He’s arb eligible for the first time after the season and we would control him through 2020. These are the type of hitters I think FAZ will look at as they aren’t overly expensive, gives them options to retain them or we have several years of control. Like AC said, I think Watson will be a target as much as Wilson will be. I could see AJ Ramos as being an alternative to Britton. Doesn’t throw as hard but would be cheaper.
Dam spell checker. It has a mind of its own. Everyone, not evermore.
Dino and Roger, I agree with you. I do not want Stanton. He does not fit. Mark, I agree with you. Do not trade Beuhler or Verdugo. Now Calhoun, they can trade. Our first priority is a LHRP. We have everything else covered. These Dodgers are grinders and we are strong 1-8 in the line up. Evermore will want Beuhler or Verdugo in a trade. FAZ, do not do it.
I don’t trade Buehler or Verdugo.
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While the Stanton Deal is fun to talk about, the reality is that it’s not very likely. Reason? Look at Carl Crawfish and A-Gon after 32. Stanton is likely of the same ilk….
http://dodgerblue.com/dodgers-rumors-padres-alex-verdugo-potential-trade-brad-hand/2017/07/13/
I hope we don’t trade Beuhler. I saw him when he pitched for Vanderbilt. He rose from 77th to 17th, why? Because he’s a beast on the mound. Cant wait to see him pitch at Dodger Stadium.
I am totally against the eye candy called Stanton. Yes, I know he is a home grown product, but his personality doesn’t fit this current grinder Dodger team. Like I said in the last thread, the Dodgers don’t have THE MAN, and THE MAN 2, and that is what makes them dangerous in the play-offs. There are so many guys who can do damage in the current lineup, either through platoons or matchups that it will be really tough for an opposing pitching staff to game plan. I will take a bunch of scrappers anyday over a few all or nothing long ball hitters. In the euphoria of the current season, let’s not forget the heartbreak of the Cardinals, Mets, and the damn Giants over the last 5 years, Love them or hate them, which I will never forgive the Cards for cracking Hanleys ribs, they were way more man than we were, just gritty ass teams that wouldn’t die until you put a wooden stake through their hearts. WE are that team now, let’s not jack up the chemistry with THE MAN. We can do this with our current guys, just a few improvements around the edges, which is how FAZ usually rolls.
Well, I have certainly had no interest in seeing the Dodgers take on Stanton’s contract…
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but Boxout’s proposal would change my mind. I’m guessing that doesn’t work for the Marlins but I can 2nd Box’s trade proposal.
Getting back to talking trades. We are going to get a LHRP and Right handed outfield bat.
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I have reading more about the Stanton situation in Miami and it sure looks like he is going to go to the highest bidder with little in the way of prospects back. The opportunity to lower 2018 payroll while obtaining one of the games biggest sluggers has to have FAZ on the phone. BIG OPPORTUNITY! Sorry AC, don’t agree with your take on prior thread. Gonzalez who hasn’t been part of this year’s juggernaut would be out the door. Utley can mentor both Seager and Bellinger. Gonzales, Kazmir, Forsythe and Ryu with some second tier prospects for Stanton.
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http://www.scout.com/mlb/marlins/story/1790938-giancarlo-stanton-s-325-million-contract
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Taylor, 2nd
Seager, SS
Turner, 3rd
Bellinger, 1st
Stanton, LF
Grandal, C
Pederson, CF
Puig, RF
Mark, I like those 5 gassers. We need 7 in the bull pen. Give me 2 left handed gassers and I am ready to go to war. The starters would have to get to the 5th, innng and turn out the lights the party is over as Don Meredith would sing.
Buehler should be a September call up and given some starts. His minor league career hasn’t been that great regardless of rankings. He isn’t ready. I can see him competing in Spring Training. He’s not as good as Stewart.
Mitch White should be back in a week or two as well from his broken toe.
On January 22, 2017, I wrote this:
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“Many scouts think [Buehler] was the most MLB-Ready pitcher taken in the 2015 draft. So, what can we really expect? I would think he starts the season at AA or AAA and then the rest is up to him. We could see him in 2017… or not. I think he could even pitch out of the pen to limit his innings. One thing is for sure: This is no ordinary prospect. He’s BIG TIME!
Can you imagine Buehler, Baez, Morrow, Stewart and Jansen? Gassers, all! Would we even need a lefty? 😉
Doubt that columns will line up but this compares Britton’s last year with this year
YEAR TEAM W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO INN H R ER HR HBP BB SO
2016 BAL 2 1 0.54 69 ..0 ..0 …0 —–47 -47 67.0 38 7 -4 -1 –0 —–18 -74
2017 BAL 0 0 2.25 11 ..0 ..0 …0 ——5 –5 —-12.0 16 3 -3 -0 –0 ——5 –8
May is a few months ago but still, this is what was being said about Britton then:
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https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-baltimore-orioles-zach-britton-forearm-injury-d783bdfcea0c
Me too. Make Beuhler the 5th starter. Trade Ryu, Kasmir and Maeda for a left hand reliever, and throw in Calhoun. Calhoun is blocked.
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I think Agon will be back for the final run. They will let him play. He has earned it. That means Bellinger goes to the outfield.
All is good in Dodger land. All I want for Christmas is a Dodger WS.
I do see Alvarez as a high-leverage arm in the pen and that could accelerate his rise. He only needs two pitches and he can hit 101-103 in the pen. If he can develop a wipeout slider (it’s close) or a cutter, he would be lethal.
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BTW, I don’t have inside knowledge on this, but someone who knows someone who does says that Buehler could get a call up… SOON!
Alvarez was probably ranked too high to begin with. Still, with his physical gifts, when/if he starts getting batters out his rank will shoot up like an erupting volcano. Guess he’s not a prospect but wonder what Urias would be ranked right now. Injury is a rank killer. Wonder if Alvarez is having some arm problems? Control and movement seem off from last year. Everyone knew Buehler would be good if he responded well to elbow surgery. No crystal ball needed there. Let’sget the 2nd half going. Can’t wait to see what happens.
Is it bad luck to think about the post season? Here goes. We need a shut down middle relief pitcher who can go 2 days out of three. The Astros have Devenski and that is a huge advantage for them especially with a so-so bullpen. Any Andrew Millers out there? Otherwise we go with our quantity , which won’t hold for the playoffs. Is Morrow the guy who can do this for us? Maybe so. The second half should be used to show what he has. Maybe he is the next Devenski/Miller. With the giants gone the season doesn’t seem as interesting. No stress here. Bay Area paper talks about how shitty the giants are. Love it. And they are. But don’t be surprised to see them be our pain in ass before this is over.
I do not think that Adeiny Hechavarria qualifies as a big trade, so IMO the deadline trade season has officially begun with Jose Quintana. The Cubs gave up a lot, but they have a legit #2 thru 2018, two very reasonable club options thru 2020 of $10.5M each, and insurance for losing Jake Arrieta/John Lackey. Jimenez is one of the very top OF prospects in all of MLB, but he is at least two years out. Dylan Cease is one of the top RHP prospects, but is also two years out. The Cubs do not win the WS without Chapman in 2016. They are showing that they are not afraid of trying to go for it again. The ML team is very young, and they still have Jeimar Candelario (3B/1B), Mark Zagunis (OF), Victor Caratini (C/1B), and Chesny Young (inf) major league ready at AAA. Not to mention Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber. They have plenty to still go after relief pitching and catching.
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I do not expect the Dodgers to make such a bold move. There are still a lot of baseball “experts” who think the Dodgers need a RHSP like Sonny Gray/Gerritt Cole. Rangers are now saying that Yu Darvish/Cole Hamels will be in play if their (Rangers) play does not pick up. I just think the Dodgers trust what they have in starting pitching. Time will tell if that was foolish or not.
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There has been a lot of discussion for a RH bat here. As much as I like and would welcome JD Martinez, I would be surprised if the Dodgers make a trade unless they can get Justin Wilson in the same deal. I think they will stay with Taylor and Puig as their RH OF. If the Dodgers could somehow include Logan Forsythe in a trade with NYY and acquire Clint Frazier, and move Taylor to 2B, that is something that could help both teams. But that is highly unlikely, so waste brain cells. They may look for an upgrade for Trayce Thompson, but not a regular.
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But where they absolutely need help is LHRP. None of Avilan/Dayton/Liberatore are dependable. Liberatore may not make it back at all this year. What makes the situation more dire, is that there are no LHRP anywhere close in the farm system. The closest potentials are Caleb Ferguson and Devin Smeltzer both at Rancho), but both are considered starters for now. I would expect that is where they will undoubtedly remain, since LHSP is also needed. Relief could be in their future as they get closer to MLB.
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If the Dodgers go big, this is where I would expect them to go. Justin Wilson/Sean Doolittle/Zach Britton seem to be the three that they are watching most closely. But there are some that think that they will lower their sights for a Tony Watson. Because of the way it turned out, they claim that FAZ is looking for a left hand version of Josh Fields, and Tony Watson fits that criterion. As I have previously stated, I am all in on Zach Britton. It will be costly, but Britton to Jansen seems awfully good. They will probably also look for another quality middle reliever. Ryan Madson also seems to be on their radar. I know they were looking at Kyle Barraclough as well.
Neshek is a guy that I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dodgers check in on too. Remember, the Dodgers actually offered him more money than Houston when he signed there, but Neshek went for the lower tax rate. FAZ has made a few deals with Philly since arriving in LA. Baez has had a nice year, but I don’t see him as an 8th inning guy. He’s had too many playoff failures for my comfort. The Dodgers need to be in on a bullpen arm or two. I know Morrow is liked by many, but he belongs in Hatcher’s role not close ball games at this point.
Mark
I guess that Cub’s trade, made you ambitious, and AC’s idea, and his thread, made you become creative, in the moment!
I like the AC’s idea of getting Britton, he was not only the best reliever in the American League last year, he is effective against both lefties, and righties, and like you said Mark, the Orioles are desperate for starting pitching.