MEET CLAYTON BEETER

With the 66^th pick in the MLB player draft, the Los Angeles Dodgers select Clayton Beeter, a draft eligible sophomore, right-handed pitcher out Texas Tech University, where he majored in accounting. 

Like Landon Knack and Bobby Miller, Beeter was scouted by Marty Lamb.   Lamb (who is worthy of his own profile) has had very good success with players he’s scouted(including Walker Buehler and Will Smith).   

If Beeter signs(he does have some negotiating leverage as a sophomore), then Dodgers and Twins off-season trade becomes Kenta Maeda (plus cash considerations) and Jair Camargo for Brusdar Graterol, Luke Raley, and Clayton “High Heater” Beeter.  Not a bad return for a pitcher that may not have a set role with the Dodgers and had expressed, by some accounts, a desire to be traded.

Unlike the Landon Knack selection, 6 picks earlier I the draft, I was not scratching my head with this pick.   In my initial mock draft, I had listed Beeter as a choice that I wouldn’t mind with the 29^th pick, the 60^th pick or this pick, or the 66^th pick.   In my final mock draft, I did not include him because I did not think that he would still be on the board when the Dodgers picked at No. 29.

Beeter was not an unknown coming into the draft.   Baseball America ranked Beeter at #58 on their pre-draft top 500.  MLB Pipeline had Beeter at #51 in their pre-draft rankings. Fangraphs had Beeter at #19 on their board, while Kiley McDaniel had Beeter at #43 on his board for ESPN and said that Beeter “has some calling his stuff the best in the whole draft.” Keith Law put Beeter at #24 on his board, and called his curve “grade-80.”   Eccentricladdie tweeted that:

Beeter was TrackMan’s #3 ranked pitching prospect in the class. Ridiculous pitch metrics w/ some mechanical shortcomings that make him a perfect fit w/ LAD’s PD group d pitching prospect in the class. 

Keith Law had Beeter going in the first round to the New York Yankees at #28 in his mock draft. Jonathan Mayo’s mock draft also has the Yankees taking Beeter at 28. Jim Callis mocked Beeter going to the Washington Nationals at #22.

Baseball America had this to say about Beeter:

Beeter was a freshman All-American as a redshirt freshman in 2019, coming off a season in which he saved eight games in 21 appearances with a 3.48 ERA. He transitioned into a Friday night role for Texas Tech this spring, and performed well over four starts. In 21 innings Beeter posted a 2.14 ERA with 33 strikeouts (14.1 per nine) and four walks (1.7 per nine). As he’s gotten further from a Tommy John surgery he had in high school his stuff has gotten better and he’s thrown more strikes. Beeter was extremely erratic in 2019 (8.7 walks per nine) but showed significantly better control in a shortened 2020 season. Additionally, Beeter has a powerful pitch mix with a fastball that has gotten up to 97 mph, with a hammer curveball with top-to-bottom shape that has plus potential. Teams would have liked to see Beeter over a full season to see if his stuff and control were maintained the entire year in a starting role. The pitch analytics on both his fastball and curveball are reportedly impressive, and he has a solid arm action with a higher slot. Without a full 2020 season to scout him, teams will have to determine if the real Beeter is the 2020 version, the 2019 version or some hybrid between the two. He could be drafted as high as the second round to a team that believes he’s a starter.

MLB Pipeline had this analysis of Beeter:

Beeter has had as many elbow operations as quality starts (two) in college, yet he pitched so well this spring that some scouts think he belongs in the first round. He blew out his elbow during fall practice before what would have been his first season at Texas Tech, having Tommy John surgery in December 2017 and an arthroscopic procedure seven months later. He led the Red Raiders’ 2019 College World Series semifinalists with eight saves as a redshirt freshman, then really opened eyes with nearly twice as many strikeouts (33) as baserunners (18) in 21 innings in 2020.

Beeter added rather than lost velocity as he worked longer stints this year, sitting at 93-96 mph and peaking at 98 with his fastball. He has a pair of power breaking balls, a wipeout curveball in the low 80s and a slider in the mid-80s that some evaluators believe is even better. He even flashes at least a solid changeup, though he doesn’t turn to his fourth option very often.

Employing an overhand delivery that creates deception and steep downhill plane, Beeter tunnels his pitches extremely well. Scouts can’t figure out how he went from averaging 8.7 walks per nine innings as a reliever to 1.7 as a starter without any significant mechanical changes. His lack of track record is worrisome but it’s hard to argue with the quality stuff and strikes he unleashed this spring.

Billy Gasparino had this take on Beeter:

“We saw him pitch a lot last year and thought we had him pegged as what kind of talent he was. Whether it was the extended period away from his Tommy John surgery that he started to get his feel back, or his tempo improved, his execution improved, his ability to re-focus mentally and adjust quickly after making a bad pitch.  “It just all really improved. His curveball strike percentage went up and he started to show a little bit of a change. He just became more of a starter option than we ever thought he would be.  “The Texas Tech coaches say he’s one of the strongest guys they’ve ever had as a pitcher there. The athleticism stood out, we love his makeup and engineering background. It just all came together for us on a guy we really liked.”

Clayton Beeter is from Cooleyville, Texas, which is a few miles northeast of the Dallas/Fort Worth area.   He is the son of Mike and Lana Beeter.  Clayton has a sister named Jaclyn, who attended the University of Texas at Austin.  Beeter grew up going to 30-some Texas Rangers games a year.   His family had season tickets behind first base at Globe Life Park.  Looking at his Instagram page, he appears to be an avid outdoors man, who loves goose hunting. 

Beeter attended Birdville High School where he was a 4 year letter winner.  His coach was Vance Bonner, who played Junior College baseball for Tim Tadlock, who was Beeter’s coach at Texas Tech   Beeter helped lead Birdsville to a District Championship in 2014 as well as two Bi-District Championships in 2015 and 2017.   Put together a 4-1 record junior season over 25.2 IP, striking out 45 batters behind a 2.70 ERA.  He earned first-team All-District honors his senior season, when he posted an ERA of 0.81, with 106 strikeouts in 55 innings pitched.  He also had a .417 batting average with two home runs.   Out of high school, Beeter was ranked as the 125th best high school prospect in Texas by Perfect Game.   He played his summer ball under with the NTXBC Dirtbags, coached by Pat Woods.   For good measure, Beeter is also a three-year football letter winner and was named first team All-District in his freshman and sophomore seasons, and for giggles he was also the Birdville High School Valedictorian.   Impressive high school resume.   Despite the resume, Beeter was not drafted out of high school.  As Beeter put it, he was “more of a thrower than a pitcher.” So he went to Texas Tech, choosing the Red Raiders over Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Air Force.  Despite his success, he said.

Then, to make sure that he would be drafted by the Dodgers, Beeter blew out his elbow in the fall of his freshman year at Tech, and redshirted in 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  Then to make absolutely sure that he would be drafted by the Dodgers, Beeter had an arthroscopic procedure done seven months later.   Gasparino and Friedman don’t appear to want to draft a pitcher unless, and until, they have the TJ surgery out of the way.  Mind you he didn’t just sit around.   He sweated a lot and called the time spent on recovery from elbow surgery

“a blessing in disguise.”  “Tommy John rehab is a pretty rigorous process,” Beeter said, “and it’s something every day as far as arm care and strength. Thankfully, I got to travel with the team that year, so while everybody else is getting ready for games, I’m just worried about my rehab and strength training.”  

If you see any pictures of Beeter, you’ll see that he is physical specimen, who looks really strong.   His Tech coach, called Beeter one of the “strongest, most athletic” players that he has coached.  

After missing his entire freshman season due to injury, he returned in 2019 and served as Texas Tech’s closer.  He was a freshman All-American that year after recording eight saves with a 3.48 ERA, 40 strikeouts(out of 93 batters faced) and 20 walks(ouch) allowed in 20 2/3 innings.

As a redshirt sophomore this spring, Beeter moved to the starting rotation, serving as Texas Tech’s ace.  He seemed to find a home in that role until the NCAA canceled the remainder of the baseball season in mid-March.  He posted a 2.14 ERA with 33 strikeouts and four walks allowed in 21 innings.  

If you see any pictures of Beeter, you’ll see that he is physical specimen, who looks really strong.   His Tech coach, called Beeter one of the “strongest, most athletic” players that he has coached.  

After missing his entire freshman season due to injury, he returned in 2019 and served as Texas Tech’s closer.  He was a freshman All-American that year after recording eight saves with a 3.48 ERA, 40 strikeouts(out of 93 batters faced) and 20 walks(ouch) allowed in 20 2/3 innings.

As a redshirt sophomore this spring, Beeter moved to the starting rotation, serving as Texas Tech’s ace.  He seemed to find a home in that role until the NCAA canceled the remainder of the baseball season in mid-March.  He posted a 2.14 ERA with 33 strikeouts and four walks allowed in 21 innings.  

“I thought I was getting better and better every time I went out there,” Beeter said. “I was excited to see where I was and where I could have ended up as the season went on.”

He throws his fastball as hard as 98 miles per hour and has an effective curveball. Those two pitches make him a promising professional prospect.  Beeter has a very deceptive delivery which helps his pitches play up even more. He throws his fastball from 93-96 mph and can run it up to 98. And his curveball, thrown at 81-86 mph, is a difference maker. His curveball might be his best pitch and serves as an extremely effective out pitch. It’s a sharp breaking pitch that consists of 12-to-6 break and typically generates a high percentage of strikeouts.  The Athletic’s Keith Law calls it grade-80, top of the charts on baseball’s 20-80 scouting scale.

 “My curveball has always been my best pitch and my fastball has caught up with it over the last couple years as the velocity has improved,” Beeter said. “My breaking ball always has been pretty sharp and I try to make it 1-7 or as close to 12-6. I will slow it down sometimes for a strike early in the count and I can speed it up later in the count down in the zone.”

Although he didn’t get to pitch that much, Beeter showed significant improvement with his command this season. After allowing 8.7 walks per nine innings in 2019, Beeter limited the number of walks he surrendered this spring to 1.7 walks per nine innings.  He didn’t make any major mechanical adjustments, he said. Instead, he made “one or two” small tweaks to his mechanics from last season. He also has developed more comfort in his mechanics since his injury, “as his delivery changed to more over the top following the surgery,” he said. Besides making sure he remains consistent with his mechanics, Beeter said that he “also wants to work on his changeup movement.”   He has also expressed a strong feel and a lot of confidence in his changeup but believes it needs to display better movement to be more effective.  

“Everyone can improve their changeup movement,” Beeter said. “You see some big leaguers with some nasty movement where it looks like their changeup is just falling off the table. Everyone wants one like that. I think I have the speed difference, but I want to get more movement.”

I think “High Heater” Beeter has a real good chance to remain a starter.   I view him as a better version of Caleb Ferguson.  Potentially, being a much better version of Ferguson.   I could see him as a #2 or #3 starter, a closer or a very effective Ross Stripling.  My research on him also showed him to be an outstanding young man.  He’s very bright and determined.  I think this was best summed up when asked why a team should draft him, Beeter replied, “I think a team should draft me because I’m a hard-working athlete, and I think I have a lot of upside to develop well in the minor league system.”

I think he signs, and after he does, I’m looking forward to watching him move through the system quickly. 

Song for the day, with my changed lyrics:

They told him, you’ll never make it here

Don’t think you have a chance, you better disappear

we don’t see the fire in your eyes and your words we cannot hear

So beat it, just beat it

You better run, you better do what you can

Don’t want to see you back, until you’re a better pitching man

You want to be tough, better do what you can

So beat it, unless you show us you aren’t that bad

Just beat it, beat it, beat it, beat it

No one wants to be defeated

Show us how strong you are and that you have the fight

every day is another challenge, a new game every night

Just beat it, beat it

Just beat it, beat it

Just beat it, beat it

Just beat it, beat it

With your arm falling off, you better leave while you can

We don’t want an injured boy, we need you to be a man

If you want to play for us, you better do what you can

So beat it, just beat it

You have to show us that you’re really not scared

that you’ll work real hard, and do everything to prepare

they don’t care if you’ve been injured, they’ll beat you if they can,

just don’t cry that it’s not fair

So beat it, unless you show us you are ready to compete

Just beat it, beat it, beat it, beat it

I see you now and I think you can’t be beat

Show us how strong you are and that you have the fight

every day is another challenge, a new game every night

And as hard as you have worked, I know that

you will beat it, beat it, beat it, beat it