I was going to respond to the MiLB contraction topic, but I was not going to add anything meaningful to what was already discussed. Suffice to say that I do not believe that the contraction plan has much of anything to do with enhancing player development. I think it has more to do with once again bending to the whims of the financially challenged organizations, in yet another cost saving program designed to create parity, but continues to fail at that endeavor.
In the never ending search for parity, MLB has limited the ability of those organizations with financial clout by imposing restrictions on draft bonus pools, CBT thresholds, and international bonus pools. The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, have gone along to get along but continued to search for ways to use their financial strength to improve their organization in other ways. To the dismay of many on this site and others, the Dodgers have chosen to forego long term multi-$100MM FA contracts but have instead plowed millions back into the organization for sustainability at the top of the standings. I acknowledge that the Dodgers could realistically do both, and were prepared to do so this winter, but NYY was the team of choice for the one difference maker the Dodgers were willing to spend on.
Now many organizations who cannot INVEST the millions required to establish and maintain a quality MiLB affiliate program with advanced data driven analytics to develop their future 26-man roster, have gone after those who have invested. Once again these lesser financed organizations want to limit the Dodgers and Yankees and others from establishing multiple affiliates with all of the benefits others cannot afford. The Dodger affiliate complexes are generally first class and well equipped. The organization invests millions in the facilities and providing exceptional instruction to the coaches as well as the players. This has been one area where the Dodgers have excelled, and others want to limit their advantage. Not for a minute do I excuse LAD from not increasing the pay for their minor leaguers. They should also be in the forefront of establishing fair compensation, and they can do this without contracting their affiliates. The Dodgers currently have 9 affiliates and are poised to lose two; Ogden and one of their AZL affiliates. I fully expect the Dodgers to continue to invest in this area until they are limited again.
I recognize that MLB and other professional sport organizations (NFL, NBA, and NHL) are oligarchies and need the financially challenged teams to compete. With their CBT thresholds and resultant luxury tax, 50% of the tax is to be redistributed to the lesser financed organizations in a revenue sharing process that is intended to help these financially challenged teams. There are other more lavish revenue redistribution programs again hitting the haves to give to the have nots. However, these teams are not using the funds to acquire some of the more pricey FA, but instead retain the revenues without spending or investing. Before the Dodgers, NYY, BoSox, Philadelphia, Cubs…agree to contraction or any other parity driven proposal, they need to insist on a salary floor. The punishment needs to include their inability to receive future luxury tax benefits or any revenue sharing program until they show a willingness to compete. And that floor needs to be high enough to ensure compliance.
According to Baseball Reference, in 2018 MLB’s revenue sharing gave each team $118 million from combined local sources and an estimated $91 million from the national pot, and using CBA’s 48% figure against $7.3B local revenue across MLB, we get similar number for 2019.
The straightforward narrative of cheapness might be misunderstood, but it is difficult to see how the opposite narrative might be true. The Pirates, who play in a stadium financed by public money, not being able to make money off $200 million-plus in revenue sharing while only spending $72 million on their major league roster seems to be an intractable mathematical problem.
Perhaps there needs to be a contraction of MLB teams who do not spend their revenue sharing dollars for the MLB roster to improve their competitiveness or put back into player development, and with an audit as to how these funds are spent.
We know that AF has not spent dollars on pricey FA’s, but instead has been very supportive with huge investments in the player development arena. The Dodgers are waaaaaaay out front in using advance analytics driven data to draft and develop their players, and once again the lesser teams are complaining. The Dodgers have gone all in on player development programs. This year they find themselves once again having one of the top five MiLB affiliate organizations. Depending on the publication, they either have 5 top 100 prospects or 7. This is remarkable while recognizing where they have drafted for more than a decade. The Dodgers have not drafted in the top 10 since Clayton Kershaw at #7 in 2006. Since then:
2007 – 20th pick
2008 – 15th pick
2009 – 36th pick (no 1st round – settled into the #16 slot by the 4th round)
2010 – 28th pick
2011 – 16th pick
2012 – 18th pick
2013 – 18th pick
2014 – 22nd pick
2015 – 24th pick
2016 – 20th pick
2017 – 23rd pick
2018 – 30th pick
2019 – 25th pick
While the Dodgers may not have paid for the top FA’s, they have decided to reinvest their profits into the player development programs. Agree or disagree, but that has kept the LAD organization at the top for the last seven years, and they certainly look to continue for at least seven more.
Maybe it is time to move financially challenged organizations out of their existing location to one where they might be more profitable. Miami has won two WS championships and they still cannot get a decent following. Tampa has always had an attendance problem. Maybe instead of expansion of ML teams which is a ruse to get more revenues into the owners hands that will not spend it, and perhaps give serious consideration to MLB contraction. I want to stop punishing teams like the Dodgers and Yankees until teams like Pittsburgh, Miami, and Tampa start to invest to improve their competitiveness. If MLB will not install a salary floor, then do away with any CBT threshold and let the teams spend what they can.
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Discussion (36)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Also, here’s the new Dodger Top 30:
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=la
MLB has Gray arriving in 2020
The Dodgers have 5 of the Top 100 prospects.:
Dodgers’ Top 100 Prospects
2. Gavin Lux, SS/2B (ETA: 2020)
23. Dustin May, RHP (2020)
44. Jeter Downs, SS (2021)
67. Josiah Gray, RHP (2020)
73. Keibert Ruiz, C (2021)
From MLB Pipeline.
Tony Gonsolin has a chip on his shoulder.
Downs up to #44. Wow!
Oakland has finally reached an agreement with both the city and the county and is moving ahead on new stadium.
AC, is Rick Honeycutt still involved with the Dodgers and if not what do you think might happen to him?
It wasn’t that long ago there was a contraction plan and I was all for it but it’s not going to happen. I believe the Twins were one of the teams targeted. Instead they got a new stadium and are spending some money. MLB will expand again and water down the game again once they solve Oakland and Tampa.
Question for our Fab 5. Is there a statistic that tracks a pitcher’s swing and miss rate outside the zone? That was a huge part of Ryu’s success last year. Have to believe he ranked at the top of that list. I think that stat would show that a pitcher has great stuff!
New Update Above.
The Dodgers 2020 Marketing Slogan.
I agree with most of that.
I think MLB should move the Marlins to Pittsburgh and buy out the awful Pittsburgh Ownership. Then, move the Rays to Portland or Charlotte or Las Vegas (make it an indoor stadium) based upon which area has the best demographics.
Then start up an AAAA league in the minor league cities with the most attendance. This is just a rough idea, but I do believe there are lots of players who could play in the “Low Majors” especially ones at the end of their careers. Maybe play 4 or 5 games a week. Maybe Montreal is one of those cities.
Just a hair-brained idea.
But the Dodgers aren’t entertainment of and by themselves. They rely on a competitive opponent and league. It would get a bit boring with an eight team super league. Oakland and Tampa have proven it can be done with a small market team
I am old school and don’t like revenue sharing, the DH, or guaranteed contracts. I have been a Dodger fan since 8 years old in 1951. I liked when the Dodgers had multiple farm teams that all came to spring training together at Dodger town in Vero Beach. St. Paul and Montreal in AAA were both Dodger farm teams at the same time. The Dodgers had their own airplane. When they moved to LA, Dodger stadium was not built with public money. Baseball is one of the few places you can be let go and still continue to be paid. Why should the Dodgers subsidize teams that are not making ends meet? Sounds like socialism.
Many of us began our baseball fandom in the 50’s with an 8 team American and 8 team National League and there were teams like KC that were never competitive. MLB has grown from those 16 teams to 30. In 1950 the US population was 161,325,798 and in 2017 it was 323,148,586. The population has grown faster than MLB but money and people have not grown equally in each MLB city.
I would love for the Rays to move to Portland, OR. Any team that is competitive but doesn’t have fan support should be able to void a contract.
Great points, AC.
I’m tired of hearing about parity. Get rid of the CBT. Oakland plays in a terrible stadium and the A’s pretty much always put a very good and highly competitive team on the field. Moving into a new stadium will no doubt improve their chances, but the A’s are good because of the baseball operation’s department. Tampa is another successful “small market” team. There are different ways to create success.
The fact that some teams aren’t successful has more to do with how they operate and the fact that they don’t reinvest money into their rosters or player development, which has consequences. MLB should have a floor in terms of of what team’s must spend on payroll. The union obviously wants that and no doubt wants the CBT to go away. They should settle for nothing less.
The talk of MLB expansion is actually quite funny when you consider the situation in Tampa, Miami and Oakland. The A’s are moving toward a new stadium which will no doubt improve their per game attendance (20,521). But what do you do with Miami, which drew just a little over 10,000 per game? They play in a new stadium. Then there is Tampa, a playoff team, which drew only 14,552 per game. Maybe MLB shouldn’t be in Florida. Baltimore, Pittsburg, Kansas City and Detroit are other organizations having trouble breaking the 20,000 mark.
Where would MLB expand? Portland, Nashville, San Antonio, Las Vegas, Montreal?
Just seems like they need to focus on either moving Tampa or Miami to some city that might be more baseball friendly. Then find a way to make traditional existing franchises better attractions. When teams like Miami trade their star players, why should people go watch?
MLB is expected to near or hit $11 billion in revenue this year so there are really no excuses for contracting minor league teams in places like Ogden and Lancaster. It’s plain and simple, stupid and a potential public relations disaster. If Rob Manfred pursues it, he should be replaced. Saying it’s about better facilities doesn’t work when you look at Jethawks Stadium. These minor league teams are important to communities, providing family oriented and affordable entertainment venues that promote baseball, especially to young fans.
Yes, the Dodgers should absolutely increase pay for minor league players and they can certainly afford. It’s embarrassing they haven’t already done it. If Toronto can do it every other MLB team can do it.
Good article, AC. Thank you.