It’s been a year since I first wrote that Max Muncy should be considered the LH hitting 2B (01-02-18). Most did not pay attention, but Max sure did take off in 2018. At 27, Max slashed .263/.391/.582/.973 propped up by 35 HRs in 481 PA. He has never shown that kind of power before. The closest he came was in 2013 when he hit 21 in the California League (A+) and 3 more in the Texas League (AA). His next double-digit year was 2017 at OKC with 12.
Now comes the discussion. Is Muncy is perennial 30+ HR guy or is he a one-time wonder? Do you keep him as the full time 1B, or do you sell high? Cody Bellinger, a much younger and more prolific career power hitter, hit 39 as a 21-year-old rookie. He followed that up with 25 as a 22-year-old 2nd year player. I understand that nobody is comparing Max to Cody, but the point is that it is much more difficult to follow up after a big power year. Pitchers get to know hitters weaknesses.
Max hit well with RISP, .293/.422/.576/.999, but not so much with 2 outs and RISP, .178/.383/.311/.694. Max has a good feel for the strike zone, as he does have a lot of walks. However, with someone who has a great knowledge of the strike zone, he still struck out 27.2% of his PA. He also was fairly balanced hitting RHP slightly better than LHP.
Max is not a plus defender, although he is not that bad as some make him out to be. Therefore, Max’s value comes predominantly from his HR power. This is borne out by his ISO of .319 and BAbip of .299. ISO measures raw power = Slugging less batting average. His previous years are nowhere close to that ISO. His ISO is other worldly and is probably not sustainable. His low BAbip combined with his high ISO indicates that he is the epitome of an all or nothing hitter.
Does all that mean that I do not want Max Muncy in the lineup? Not at all. But to compare his one year with multiple years of Castellanos is not fair either. Castellanos has performed well over an extended period of time and seems to be getting better each year. Castellanos is 18 months younger than Muncy. I would project that Castellanos has a better chance at duplicating or bettering 2018 statistics than does Muncy. If Muncy was included in any trade, Friedman should sell high. If he is not, I am okay with that as well. Max is a valuable player who can play multiple positions, and I do not think he is a strict platoon player. He will need to give way so David Freese can get quality AB’s., but otherwise, Max should be a regular. I just do not expect him to duplicate his 2018 season in HRs.
Another reason why some are not too against trading Max high is because of…Phil Plantier, Bob Hamelin, Kevin Maas, Joe Charboneau, and Warren Morris, others who have come before with big break out seasons only to fizzle shortly thereafter.
Phil Plantier – As a 24-year-old in 1993 hit .240/.335/.509/.846 with 34 HRs and 100 RBIs. He dropped to 18 HRs in 1994, and never hit double digit HRs again.
Bob Hamelin – As a 26-year-old in 1994, he hit .282/.375/.599/.987 in 375 PA with 24 HRs. He never duplicated those numbers but did come close in 1997 with 18 HRs. He was out of baseball after 1998.
Kevin Maas – As a 25-year-old in 1990, he hit .252/.367/.535/.902 with 21 HRs. In 1991 he hit .220/.333/.390/.723 with 23 HRs. He followed those years with 2 very mediocre years, then 1 year in MiLB , and then 67 PA in 1995 and was out of baseball.
Joe Charboneau – As a 25-year-old in 1980, he hit .289/.358/.488/.846 with 23 HRs and 87 RBIs. He then had a total of 210 PA over the next two years and then out of baseball.
Warren Morris – As a 25-year-old in 1999, he hit .288/.360/.427/.787 with 15 HRs and 73 RBIs in 581 PA. He followed that up in 2000 with a .259/.341/.343/.684 and 3 HRs. The next two years he totaled 116 PA but did have somewhat of a resurgence in 2003 when he hit .272/.316/.373/.689 with 6 HRs. He was out of baseball after 2003.
Are these players evidence that Max cannot follow up with a solid 2019? Not at all. However, it is evidence that one year does not make a perennial 30+ HR guy, or a perennial regular in the lineup. He started later in his career. And sometimes it may be wise to sell high. But with Puig, Kemp, and Grandal all gone, I am fairly comfortable that Max will find himself somewhere in the lineup come March 28 vs Arizona DBacks.
Discussion (77)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Kluber’s a stud too!
Some commenters have mentioned that maybe we value our prospects higher than do other organizations and you have to give up quality to get quality. I think Friedman has had a very good record with regard to the prospects he has given up and their subsequent success or failure for other teams. So at this point I’m going to trust him to make those decisions. He refused to trade minor league prospects Seager or Urias or Buehler or Bellinger when others asked for them. Those are all either past or potential future All Stars and I say that based on their MLB performances. It seems as though he now wants to hold on to Ruiz, Verdugo and Lux. Let’s see how that turns out. That said, if Realmuto, Kluber and Harper are not going to happen, we still have a large stable of prospects who could be traded, many of whom would be desired by other teams. The front office still has plenty of time before the start of the season to use that prospect capital to get top notch (if not Cy Young winners or All Star catchers) players in return. Players who haven’t been mentioned by Bob Nightengale or Kenny R. or Morosi or any of us but whom the Dodger front office has formulated as Plan B. Give them a little more time.
Good stuff Watford my Man – I’m keeping my fingers crossed on Seager, Jensen and of course I’m a big Verdugo fan… (Now if I could see Toles a good share of the OF platoon)…
Maybe grab a catcher before ST…
Arenado would be sweet in 2020…
Watford I agree with your last sentence.
Verdugo & Seager will be like having 2 new players.
Kelly is a big plus for the BP, and hopefully he and Baez can lock down the 7th & Bth, and Kenley can return to his old self.
I think the Dodgers do little else, and see where they are at the TD.
I’m not sold on Machado or Harper. Wait for Arenado.
When I get back I have a post about how sometimes the best addition is by subtraction. While I don’t believe for a minute that the Farmer trade was a salary dump, I do believe that it alone could make the Dodgers better.
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The Tigers and Marlins will likely have to come down. It’s not just Friedman who is not trading for Realmuto and Castellanos… it’s everyone. The same ones who are calling him cheap would call him a dumbass for paying a dope fiend price.
I think I”m the only person on this board that is still high on Kendall. I guess we’ll all find out this upcoming year!
I just met a “person of interest” from an organization I won’t name. We had a few drinks and talked. Opinion is all it is but he said he was shocked the Dodgers tendered Puig and more shocked they were able to trade him. He is also very high on the prospects the Dodgers received. We discussed a lot.
1. He thinks Casty is a soon to be superstar and Detroit wants paid for that.
2. He thinks Buehler will be better than Kershaw.
3. He thinks Kershaw will be relevant to the end of his contract
4. He doubts that Seager will the the Ss he once was.
5. He says the league found holes in Bellinger and Barnes. Cody adjusted quickly. He think Barnes will too.
6. He hates Kike.
7. He says Lux is the real deal and Kendall will be our of baseball in a year.
It’s fun to brainstorm with insiders.
I hear a lot of Andrew Freidman not making “Stupid Trades” or not paying too much, or other such descriptions. Fair enough, but maybe just maybe A. Freidman values his prospects much higher than they are actually worth – at least it seems so when trying to deal for an all-star catcher or a multiple Cy Young winner (by definition they are worth more). None of us know the details of those talks, but one BP piece and one salary dump so far this off season? Come on Andrew, you can do better than that.
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They sure didn’t get much for Puig and Wood – is that indicative that other teams don’t value those players as highly as the Dodgers did.
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If you save all your prospects until they are ready – you wait another year down the road, and with a very good team (the Dodgers the past few years), needs go unaddressed, utility players become starters and in the playoffs those needs are exposed and utility players play like utility players (with few exceptions).
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And while we wait for the maturation of the highly rated prospects, the all-stars age (Turner, CK, Jansen, etal).
Phillies Sign David Robertson
Yankees, Troy Tulowitzki Agree To Deal
Angels Sign Jonathan Lucroy
Mariners Sign Yusei Kikuchi
Twins Sign Nelson Cruz
Blue Jays Sign Matt Shoemaker
Nationals Sign Anibal Sanchez
Athletics Sign Mike Fiers
Cubs Sign Kendall Graveman
Rays Sign Charlie Morton
Mariners Acquire Domingo Santana, Send Ben Gamel To Brewers
Reds Acquire Kemp, Puig & Wood From Dodgers For Homer Bailey, Prospects
Dodgers sign Kelly.
There is still going to be platooning. Right now I can see Joc/CT3 or Joc/Kike’ in LF. 2B is not settled, and there could be a platoon at 1B with Muncy/Freese. I am not advocating it, it is just set up that way for now. But I do agree that the trade of Kemp/Puig/Wood/Farmer was more than a salary dump.
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The OF is opened up for Verdugo, and the Reds probably desired 1 year of Puig over two years of Joc. That does not make sense to me since the only LH bat in the OF is Jesse Winker. My guess is that Joc could have played CF in that bandbox. The alleys are not nearly as large as they are in LA. Or as you suggest, Puig was not considered a viable option by Friedman with all of the uncertainty, and the Dodgers did want as much salary gone as possible.
Last year most of us were complaining about all the platooning. Although I think part of the Reds trade was a simple salary dump, I think another part of it was a player dump. Wood wasn’t going to start and he wasn’t a viable bullpen piece. Good-bye. Apparently they really want to keep Verdugo and make him a starter. Good-bye Kemp. They had no confidence in Farmer as a catcher. Good-bye Kyle. That leaves Puig. Only one year left on his contract and very closely tied to Turner Ward. Maybe AF decided he wouldn’t handle the new Van Scoyoc hitting theories and the last thing they wanted was an unhappy Puig. Good-bye Yasiel. Even if they don’t get Harper/Castellanos/Haniger, they’ve cut down their options in the outfield which should also lead to less platooning. If they do pick up an outfielder, that will definitely lead to another outfielder going (I’m guessing Joc). I’m sure Friedman had real interest in Kluber and Realmuto but not enough to make a stupid trade. Last I checked, you need two teams to do a transaction. We may still sign a second baseman, a catcher, another reliever, a guy named Harper, but first and foremost (and a number of you may violently disagree with it) they wanted to remove Kemp, Wood and Puig.
Mark
You have to keep your stories straight, is every team afraid to trade with Friedman, because they think he will pick their pocket, or is every team trying to rob him.
Have you at least, reached your drink quota yet?
Remember that salary dump of Kemp, Puig, Wood, etal? Looking more and more like that’s what it was. I was hoping for more, but it smells and looks like that is not the case.
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So Cleveland and Miami, and Detroit apparently want too much, and Freidman wont depart with Verdugo or Ruiz (to get value one must trade value).
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One player added to the BP, no 2B, no C (sorry, Barnes is not the answer), no RH bat. Heading to ST soon with Barnes at catcher, Muncy at 2B(?), a rookie in RF (?), and utility players everywhere for Roberts to pretend he’s another Casey Stengel.
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Looking like a playoff team in the Stan Kasten Atlanta model, but not a WS championship team. Not sure I can watch this again. At least Puig was entertaining.
Robertson to Phils , 2 yrs/23 mil with a club option for a third year. I would have gladly given him that to pitch for us but I guess he wanted to stay on the East Coast.
Unless other teams become realistic in their trade expectations I would not be surprised to see the Dodgers start the season without any significant additions. If there is to be additional free agent signings, it will probably be later when the time crunch hits the FA’s and they still haven’t signed. There may be some movement as we start spring training but right now things seem to be at an impasse. I don’ t view this as Friedman’s fault. He created maneuvering room with The Farmer Trade. If nothing is available this off season, I creates flexibility for moves this summer.
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I would still prefer to see the addition of an impact bat, but it has to be a reasonable deal. I do think we can go into the season with the current roster and remain competitive in the division. The additional pieces we need are for a deep post season run. I would still prefer to see them as early additions so they can settle in, but it take two parties to deal.
After just reading what Harper and Boras are up to and about the Marlins refusing to budge on JTR and Cleveland perhaps not moving Kluber or Bauer it seems the Dodgers are at an impasse for all of their targets so far. The catching market is down to a few vets and Grandal is holding firm, the plan can’t be Rocky Gale and Barnes, can it? There are a lot of bullpen arms still out there and a lot of true 2B also, is that where the team looks to improve? Do they care if they improve? I think they do care but will not make any dope fiend moves. It looks like more tinkering around the edges so far. Will they just add Matt Weiters or Mesoraco for 3-4M, DJLM or Lowrie for 2-20M and a bullpen piece (pick one) and head to ST? Or move Joc plus Stewart and Rios/Beaty for Casty?
I believe Harper will end up back in DC. The Dodgers will not trade Verdugo and no one is going to trade much for Muncy. If you traded Max now you would be selling low. Every GM wonders if he can keep it up. The Dodgers have to keep him. Low risk, high reward for the Dodgers.
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Haniger? Lux, Verdugo and Muncy might not get it done. Forget about it.
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Castellanos would be an overpay but the Dodgers could get it done. I believe he’s a game changer on this team.
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They can get by for a while with Barnes and Whoever is ready for a while. AC’s suggestion of Joc in a deal for Casty makes perfect sense to me but what does Detroit think? That’s the key.
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My sources tell me Joc is not highly regarded. Not smart and not a hard worker. His Dough Boy Body speaks volumes.
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If they get Casty, Bellinger goes to 1B and Max goes to 2B. If not, Max stays at 1B and Taylor and Joc platoon.
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Friedman is not done but right about now everyone is trying to rob him.
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Sitting on sum beach somewhere sipping something. Service is sparsdic. Back Sunday night.
Markus Solbach (27) has signed with the Dodgers. The German born RHP is having a league leading season in the Australian Baseball League. Leading with 56. 1 innings pitched, 68 strikeouts. Second with a 0.64 ERA and 0.64 WHIP both second. This is his third tour of duty in Australia.
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http://web.theabl.com.au/news/article.jsp?ymd=20190103&content_id=302326118&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_t4064&sid=t4064
I think it would take a lot more for the Angels to trade Trout for just Verdugo, and Muncy.
White Sox said to not be willing to offer Harper more than a 7 year contract.
I have been the poster boy for trading high on Max starting mid-season last year. Based on the hype some have made on Verdugo, ie second coming of Gwynn, one would think the Angels would consider a Verdugo and Muncy trade for Trout. Trout’s contract expires after 2020 and earns about $33M annually compared to $1.2M combined for Muncy and Verdugo and much longer controllable years. The Angels could make that trade and have money for Harper.
Unless some too good to be true offer for Muncy comes in, there is no way he should be traded, not after a season that he just turned in. His contract favors the FO, his production, power, and versatility in his fielding, make his someone to hold on to till proven useless, and I don’t think he will be useless. I like the way he bats and stands in. 2B and backup 1B, plus PH. How can you ask for more on the contract that he’s on.
Nice post AC! I’ve been banging the drum for Max a bit, my glass is more than half full he can sustain his production. I remember a wild armed 3rd baseman that moved to 1st because of his bat named Steve Garvey, who became a pretty good 1st baseman with time at the position. I’m not factoring in a drop off, just quoting actual stats from the season he just had. He will make major league minimum in 2019, how do you trade that? 1 more stat: Max was 4th in OPS in all of baseball against RHP and 9th in all of baseball against LHP.