Logjam of Lefties: The Rotation

I don’t think I would touch Greinke. He looked like he was hanging on by a thread last year and getting by with smoke and mirrors. I know that there is quite a bit of deferred money in his contract. AZ always seems to get in trouble doing that. They are at a crossroads this year. It’s their last year with Goldy. Do they try to add enough to make one more run at it this year or start selling off a Goldy or Greinke? I think a lot of people see what I see in Greinke these days. AZ would have to eat A LOT of money to move him and they aren’t going to get what Goldy’s worth. They are in a tough spot. I picked them to finish 3rd last season and they did. Now they have to decide how to replace Pollak and Corbin for one year, go with what they’ve got, or sell. Everyone knew when they overpaid for Greinke they would wind up here and they have absolutely nothing to show for it.

My other trade idea is Puig, Joc, Urias, and Keibert Ruiz to Anaheim for Trout.

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Lineup: Verdugo, Trout, Seager, Turner, Bellinger, Kemp, Taylor/Like, Suzuki.

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Bench: Toles, Muncy, Freese, Barnes.

Trade Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda, Puig, Diego Cartaya, and Dennis Santana to Cleveland for Kluber and Brad Hand.

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Rotation:. Kluber, Kershaw, Buehler, Hill, Ryu, Stripling.

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Bullpen:. Jansen, Hand, Baez, Alexander, Ferguson, Koehler, Garcia, Floro.

1 – The Dodgers have a pitching glut and a surplus of OF, especially LHH. In the past, the Braintrust has refused to trade from the surplus, noting that injuries happen and that the surplus may be pressed into service. That being said, they have to do something as they have too many bodies that play the same position and, if reports are to be credited, they will want to move some contract to save money since staying under the Cap is apparently important.

2 – The obvious (to me) rotation to start the season, if they make no changes is Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, Hill and one of Stripling, Urias, Maeda and Wood. I agree that they are going to try to watch Urias’ innings so don’t expect to see him in the rotation at the beginning of the season. Between Wood and Maeda, Wood is anticipated to make $9MM in 2019 per MLB Trade Rumors and Maeda makes $3MM/year plus incentives so Maeda is cheaper. Wood also took a step backward after a stellar 2017. I agree with AC that Wood may be the pitcher to go. Stripling is cheap and is effective both as a starter and a reliever, so he stays.

3 – The OF also has too many guys. Verdugo has nothing more to learn in AAA. Puig is projected to make $11.3MM per MLBTR. Kemp’s contract is likely unmovable, so he stays; Puig would garner the Dodgers players or prospects, and Verdugo’s best position is probably RF. On the other side, Joc Pederson is projected to earn $4.3 MM in arbitration this year. Toles and Joc make one or the other of them redundant. I can see at this point one of them being moved.

4 – Given the glut of starting pitching, I doubt the Dodgers are interested in taking on the rest of Zach Greinke’s contract, especially in light of the recent revelation of the Dodgers intention to keep payroll below $185 MM in 2019. You can forget about any other high priced additions either (eg. Cory Kluber). In any event, the Dodgers’ starting pitching wasn’t really the problem last season. The bullpen was a real problem, but you won’t see the Braintrust throwing money around to fix that problem either. They don’t believe in spending money on relievers.

5 – There’s no way that Puig is going to be traded to the Marlins as long as Donny Ballgame is their manager – so just forget the Puig for Realmuto suggestions. Besides, the Fish have been all about dumping payroll so there’s no way they will trade for an $11 MM OF like Puig – they just traded away 3 All Star OF – remember?

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2805678-1-impact-move-each-mlb-team-could-make-this-offseason#slide6

Catcher = Realmuto and Smith

1st Base = Turner backed by Freeze

2nd Base = Locastro backed by Hernandez and then Lux by August

3rd Base = Machado backed by Freeze

SS = Seager backed by Hernandez

LF = Pederson and Kemp with Pederson getting about 70% of at bats

CF = Bellinger backed by Hernandez

RF = Verdugo backed by Kemp with Verdugo getting 70% of at bats

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Traded: Hill, Wood, Muncy, Taylor to Yanks for one of their top three prospects that would be flipped to Miami.

Traded: Puig, Yankees prospect, Barnes plus one or two from White, Grove, Alvarez for Realmuto.

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Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, Urias, Stripling / Gonsolin

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Jansen, Ferguson, Santana, Alexander, Baez, ? and ?

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There is more than enough salary savings to add Machado even if his contract is front loaded to encourage him to take an opt out after 3 years. That would most likely let the Dodgers sign Machado to a long term contract but not really, assuming he would take the opt out.

I am home watching my sick grandson and am catching up on my reading. This AM I came across an article in The Athletic titled, “Recently fired executive accuses Mariners front office of racism, discrimination.” It emanates from a terminated employee Ms. Lorena Martin, Director of High Performance. Dipoto was so impressed by Ms. Martin that he created this position for her.

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An excerpt from the article.

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“But after less than 12 months on the job, Martin was quietly fired by the Mariners in October. On Monday, she took to social media to accuse members of the front office, including Dipoto and manager Scott Servais, of making racist comments against Latin American players.

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“She later specified some of those allegations to The (Tacoma) News Tribune, claiming, among other things, that Dipoto referred to her as a “cocky Latina,” that McKay called Dominican players “just plain stupid” and that Servais said Latinos “aren’t bright enough” to be major-league catchers or managers. She also accused Dipoto of repeatedly punching a white board during an argument “to intimidate me.”

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“While the Mariners seemed to initially consider Martin’s addition a coup, multiple Lakers sources indicated some within the organization were relieved she found a position elsewhere despite having hired her barely a year earlier. Martin’s role was reduced in scope, and Lakers sources described her as difficult to work with, unable to accept criticism and eager to deflect blame.

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“Mariners sources told The Athletic that some players weren’t comfortable around Martin in the team’s clubhouse – it should be noted that MLB clubhouses are not among the most open-minded of settings – and others were reticent to accept her input. Those complaints echo themes from Lakers sources, as well.

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“Late Monday, Martin told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal that she possessed emails proving the Mariners breached her contract and that she knew Mariners staff willing to speak on her behalf. She has yet to produce those emails and/or staffers.”

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Here is what she wrote on her Instagram – “The Mariners organization has major issues. The things I have witnessed and heard first hand have left me shocked. How can their GM, Jerry Dipoto, Manager Scott Servais, and Director of Player Development, Andy McKay, speak about their players like this…

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“Calling LATINOS LAZY, DUMB, and STUPID, especially the Dominicans.

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“And then they wondered why they didn’t make it to the playoffs. Leadership is to blame, under Jerry Dipoto’s leadership no team has made it to the playoffs and they will continue to miss the playoffs with him in this position. Poor leadership. It’s come to the point where I have to speak out because they are firing innocent trainers for trying to do the right thing and because of their color/race.”

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My initial reaction is that I do not buy into her allegations of racism. If these were true, any employee with an ounce of integrity would leave immediately upon hearing racist remarks, and immediately report it. She chose not to, and “came forward” only after being relieved of her duties. After her short tenure with the Lakers, it seems that she is the epitome of the Peter Principle. She has reached her peak. And as unnamed Lakers personnel indicated, she is blaming others for her inabilities.

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She would not be the first to claim that Jerry Dipoto is not a good leader. He may not be. There is no crime in that, and it certainly is not racist driven to have that distinction of a failed leader. But it seems implausible to me in today’s environment if in fact Dipoto, Servais, or McKay displayed any traits at all approaching to what Ms. Martin has alleged, then it would not be much of a secret, and they would be terminated, and rightfully so. It should not take two occurrences of racist comments to terminate an employee, especially in a role that is dependent on Latino players.

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I also find it incredulous that Dipoto, Servais, and McKay are so stupid to make these racist remarks in front of Ms Martin, who herself is Latina.

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The Mariners have 32 players on their current roster, and 10 of them are Latino, with 4 Dominicans; Alex Colome, Juan Nicasio, Robinson Cano, and Jean Segura. For a FO that is supposedly racist towards Latinos, they certainly have their fair share (31.25%), and rely quite a bit on the Dominicans. I am not naïve enough to believe that an executive group cannot be racist if they do have Latino employees, I just do not believe that it is possible to run a MLB baseball organization and have those beliefs.

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If Dipoto wants to trade Colome and Segura to the Dodgers I would take that call in a heartbeat.

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The Athletic always has good thought provoking articles. Well worth the cost.

rchieF and Watford – I mentioned Dozier staying a week ago or so… He was never healthy and can do the job.

Maybe dude was right, sometimes my comments can be odoriferous!!!

Watford what do you think about my Irish vs the All Blacks!!

I’ll be burning a few candles on that..

Like last year, I think the market will be slow until Harper and/or Machado lands and Boras will string it out…

I cannot see the Dodgers trading Kemp (one year of $20 million AAV) for Greinke (3 years of $34+ million AAV).

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First off, I do not believe that Greinke is even worth the salary he’s currently getting. He’s still a very good pitcher, but nowhere near the pitcher who left the Dodgers after 2015. Being charged about $34 million/yr. towards the CBT would likely hamstring the Dodgers both this year and going forward, for a pitcher I no longer consider to be the difference maker he once was. It costs the Dodgers this year even with the offset of Kemp’s salary, and a whole lot more in the subsequent two years. The numbers simply do not add up to me, especially if the Dodgers want to add some payroll in other areas, via free agency or trades.

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And by the way, maybe Kemp is worth a lot more than we currently surmise. I have nothing to back this up, but I do wonder if maybe Kemp’s poor 2nd half wasn’t the result of him having lost too much weight too fast last offseason. Losing 40-50 pounds in a single offseason is an awful lot, and perhaps in the process Kemp became worn down in the 2nd half. Maybe spending this offseason in a strength training program will restore the stamina that he may have lost last season. Maybe he needs to regain a little of that weight back (in the form of muscle) to build a more sustainable stamina. I have nothing to back any of this up. It’s simply conjecture.

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If there’s quality pitching that can be acquired over the winter at reasonable cost, I’m all for it. But I’m also all for throwing the dice, and using the talent we have in-house. And whatever money is saved by staying in-house, makes all that much more available to acquire players like Harper, Machado, LeMahieu, etc. (obviously not all of them).

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And yes, I read that stuff about Dozier dealing with a bone bruise this past season. Still, with a player like LeMahieu available, I fail to see the need to roll the dice on Dozier bouncing back.

I don’t think having Greinke for the next 3 years at $35M per year will get the Dodgers the ring , the Dodgers don’t need Greinke who at this point is clearly not an Ace. The Dodgers need a center fielder, a second baseman not named Hernandez or Taylor, a catcher, some help in the bullpen, and playing Verdugo everyday in right or left field.

The Dodgers have the players to trade to get what they need. Let’s see what they do.

We have been advised by some (who will remain nameless) that Friedman is not going to announce to the world that they will be attempting to fix the team’s strikeout problem in general, and CT3 specifically, but we are to believe that they do have an unspoken plan. But when the team does state through a Bill Shaikin “leak” that the Dodgers are planning on staying under the luxury tax threshold for the next four seasons, we should not believe that.

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I do applaud FAZ for keeping the Dodgers not only competitive but in two WS, all while trying to rebuild their farm system thru spending. But now that the minor league system is as good as it can be with where they were drafting, the investors (Todd Boehly and his minions) want to shut down the spigot and to stay under the competitive balance tax threshold. If they do not win, oh well. They will still have near 4MM in reported attendance because the team will be competitive, especially in a weak NL West. To them what is more important, a WS championship or a better ROI?

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I have to believe that two owners in particular are not in on this strategy, Magic and Billie Jean King. Magic learned from Jerry Buss that money will not stop him from bringing championship flags to the Forum (now Staples Center). The Lakers are under true salary caps and were able to sign Lebron, and are in position to get another max contract next year. With Magic, you know they will. Magic also knows that it does take other complimentary pieces to make a champion (or at least a playoff team) and got Tyson Chandler. The Lakers are not going to win the NBA championship this year, but they should make the playoffs and will be even closer next year.

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Billie Jean may be wealthy, but she is a competitive champion, something Todd Boehly and his investor minions know nothing about. They are consumed by ROI and other financial metrics. They know nothing about WAR, OBP, BABIP, OPS+, ERA+, exit velocity, etc. Don’t get me wrong, I want to make as much as I can on my 401 (K) and IRA accounts, but I am not invested in sports franchises where winning has to take precedence over profit. I have to believe that Billie Jean believes this as well.

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By announcing their plan publicly, they are sending a message that they’re taking the keys out of the ignition of the gravy train, and other teams might be able to take advantage of that. However, Andrew addressed any level of competition concerns in a recent presser, saying,

“… there’s no question that we have plenty of resources to win a World Series next year. There’s no question about that. The talent on hand, and the flexibility to do that, is definitely there.”

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Are we to ignore that statement? All of that preamble to say that the Dodgers are telling anyone that will listen that they will not be signing Bryce Harper. There will also be no Zach Greinke. There will be no Corey Kluber because the team cannot (or will not) afford to take on a Jason Kipnis contract. The Dodgers right now stand about $17MM – $18MM below the CBT threshold. If they keep Maeda, that number will be reduced by $3MM to $5MM. They are going to need at least 1 catcher, and that will cost $2MM to $3.5MM. They are going to need to keep some in reserve for the trade deadline. Why the trade deadline? Because they should be atop of a very weak NL West Division. Maybe Josh Reddick or Curtis Granderson will be available again, or John Axford, or Zac Rosscup, or Ryan Madson. There will be no Manny Machado available.

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With no Harper, the Dodgers will be keeping their highest paid OF not named Matt Kemp. Yasiel Puig and his estimated $11.3MM arbitration contract will start the season in RF. There will be some unheralded trades of surplus pitchers and OF’s. Which ones? Who knows right now. Brock Stewart is obviously on his way out as a Dodger. There is no way he can stay on the 25 man all season, and with his zero options, he will either be traded or non-tendered next week. He should end up in Tampa Bay or KC or Toronto. I have to believe that Alex Wood will be dealt. There are multiple teams that will be glad to have him, but the return will not be as good as it might have been last year. One complaint that I do have with the current Dodgers FO, is that they have a tendency to hold on to players well after their high point in value.

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I will still be waiting to see whether Friedman keeps Joc or Verdugo. He cannot keep both. Power or bat to ball skills. I know Farhan preferred power, but does Andrew? While I do believe they can afford to sign a LeMahieu, after the Ryu acceptance of the QO, I no longer believe they will. I also do not believe that they will sign a Brian Dozier unless he is on a 1 year $6MM to $8MM contract. If I sound a bit pessimistic about improving the 2019 team so they can compete against the improving Braves, Phillies, Brewers and Cardinals who will spend, I keep going back to these words

“… there’s no question that we have plenty of resources to win a World Series next year. There’s no question about that. The talent on hand, and the flexibility to do that, is definitely there.”

By the way, the Red Sox are already over the CBT threshold, and there is no question in my mind that they will spend if they need to. The CBT threshold will not deter them or their investors. The Red Sox like to hold parades.

The Yankees benefit from lefty pitchers more than most teams due to their famous short right field porch. That porch also makes lefty hitters attractive to them as well. The Yankees want pitching. It would seem the Yankees would be interested in Hill and Wood. Together they will make $16M and $9M respectively for a total of $25M in 2019.

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That helps the Yankees for one year so with the cost and limited duration of help, the Dodgers won’t get much in return, or would they? Throw in Taylor and the Yankees have a fill in for their injured Didi Gregorius. Could the Dodgers get the Yankees #3 prospect Jonathan Loaisiga? What else might be needed?

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Could the Dodgers then trade Puig and Jonathan Loaisiga for a relief pitcher along the lines of Edwin Díaz of Seattle? Moving Puig could save the Dodgers another $16M for 2019.

Concur. Barring injuries I expect opening day rotation to be Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, Hill, Maeda. Stripling, if not traded likely first up for rotation. I haven’t looked at the schedule yet, but many times a 4 man rotation with occasional spot starts is good for the first month or so.

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I expect Wood to be traded. Last year before free agency. That would free up $$ and I don’t see him in the Dodgers long term plans.

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Urias will probably start the season in extended spring training to limit his innings. OKC with short starts would also be an option. I don’t want to see him start in the bull pen but if past history is any guide, who knows what they will do . . .

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I don’t see a place for Greinke in the rotation but if is a chance for a OF salary dump, I would make it work. There is a log jam in the OF. At least 2 on the current roster need to be traded. Kemp and Puig would make sense from a salary standpoint as both in last year of contract and I suspect not in Dodgers long term plans. Pederson would also shed salary. He is currently a 4th OF

How about the Dodgers trade Alex Wood and Yasiel Puig for a nice (cheap) package of relievers? Would Turner Ward like some more kisses?

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Iglesis and ____________________?

The pitching outlook is loaded. I would not bring back Greinke. We need to keep money off the books for Arrenado so he can take over for Turner, who slides over to first base for his last season. With Gonsolin and May so close, Urias, Bueller and Kershaw, Greinke is a square peg for a round hole. I think Santana is the real deal. A nasty upper 90’s sinker don’t grow on trees. Caleb might be well suited as a reliever, a Britton / Miller type. Urias is going to be held back a little, so Maeda and his affordable contract is going to stay put for another year. Wood is obvious trade bait. I think Kersh will be better than he was last year, so the rotation is absolutely stacked. Just need to get some more consistent bats. Seager will help immensely. It will be interesting to see how we shed 40 man slots for the upcoming rule 5 draft.

Our pitching looks strong for the next 10 years. I have said before we should develop relief pitchers in the minor leagues. If they have two good pitches, let them pitch out of the bull pen. Let Ferguson and Santana pitch out of the bull pen. This allows them to get to the majors a little sooner. Let them work on a third pitch while pitching from the bull pen. If they develop a good third pitch, then move them into the starting rotation.