Many people blame Andrew Friedman and/or Farhan Zaidi for the demise of the Dodgers bullpen in 2018. They surmise that they failed to adequately equip the pen with the requisite number and quality of arms. Actually, “demise” is a pretty harsh word. The Dodgers and the Red Sox, the two World Series teams, both finished the regular sesaon with identical 3.72 Bullpen ERA’s. The Dodgers did have the better WHIP – 1.21, compared to 1.29 for the Red Sox. In the Post-Season, the Red Sox had a 2.71 ERA compared to the Dodgers 2.78 ERA. Again, the Dodgers had the better WHIP – 1.13 to 1.17.
The World Series was the difference. The Red Sox bullpen was “lights out” with a 1.40 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, while the Dodgers bullpen was “lit up” with a 1.40 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP… and it’s all Kenley Jansen’s fault! Kenley had a season “for the ages” during the 2017 regular season when he went 5-0 with 41 saves in 42 opportunities and had a 1.32 ERA to go with a “sick” 0.75 WHIP. In 2018 his ERA “balloned” to 3.01, with a 0.99 WHIP and he was 1-5 with 38 saves in 42 opportunities. Where he really failed was in the World Series where he had a 4.50 ERA. Really, his numbers were not “horrifying” but they weren’t up to his standards, and as the “Face of the Bullpen,” the rest of the bullpen is a reflection of it’s leader, or actually, it’s closer!
I was listening to MLB.Radio a few days ago and they were talking about how a bullpen often reflects the attitude and success of it’s closer. Of course, there are exceptions, but former players were saying how the closer sets the tone and that it just elevates the rest of the pitchers in the bullpen. I believe that to be true. I also know that bullpen pitchers are notoriously fickle: Great one year and sucky the next. Kenley didn’t really suck… most of the time. He just wasn’t Kenleyesque most of the year. If a bad season is a 3.01 ERA, then that just tells you how high the bar is for him.
This purpose of this piece today is not to rag on Kenley Janson, but rather, to impart hope for a better 2019. It was a bad season for Kenley as he started out slow in Spring Training, got injured and then struggled in April, he pitched pretty well until August when he had his heart issues but bounced back in September… only to faulter in the World Series. He had heart problems… maybe he felt it coming on during Spring Training and he was dealing with a new baby as well as custody with his older daughter. Without going into too much detail, let’s just say that when kids are involved it may be difficult to focus on baseball, but then, factor in his heart issues and, well, it was a “perfect storm.” In case you didn’t know, heart issues are serious and can kill you… dead! That’s a big distraction and that alone explains all his pitching woes.
So, he has already had the surgery and by all accounts, it is a success. He should be good for another 5+ years! Hopefully his child custody issues are behind him and here’s what I think: Kenley Jansen will show up to Spring Training, in the best shape of his life and ready to take out his wrath at losing two World Series back-to-back on NL hitters.
If the closer is better, the rest of the pen will be better, and depending upon who is there, these guys are much better equipped with another year of experinece. Stir in some youngesters like Caleb Ferguson, who really got some critical experience in 2018, Dennis Santana, Marshall Kosowski, Yimi Garcia (if tendered and healthy) and others and the pen could be a real strength. Julio Urias will be back, and maybe he pitches out of the pen for a while to build up arm strength. Wood, Maeda and Chicken Strip are all “swingmen” or trade candidates.
The bullpen may look vastly different in 2019 and it will all start with one Kenley Jansen. The Dodgers can go as far as he can carry them, and I happen to believe he can carry them a long way. He’s done it before. In 2007, Mariano Rivera put up a 3.15 ERA and followed it up the very next season with a 1.40 ERA to go with 39 Saves. Kenley Jansen is of that same ilk… cutter and all. We might blame Kenley for last years’ bullpen demise, but we may have to thank him for a Championship next year. Stay tuned…
Other News
- The Dodgers and Indians are still cussing and discussing Yasiel Puig, Corey Kluber and others. Hurry up and make up your minds for us, would you? We are tired of waiting…
- Dodgers eligible for arbitration: Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Corey Seager and Pedro Baez, Josh Fields, Tony Cingrani, Yimi Garcia. All will not be tendered contracts. Who won’t? Stay tuned
Discussion (79)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Gomes to Nats now official.
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Hunter Strickland a surprise non-tender by the Giants. Gorkys Hernandez too. Kept Joe Panik though.
1. I think it takes more than Barnes and Verdugo (maybe Smith and Verdugo)
2. Can Duffy play 2nd base? Might not need DJLM and can spend that money on the bullpen
3. Verrry interesting
4. See 2 above
I guess it boils down to just this:
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1, Dodgers trade Barnes and Verdugo for Realmuto (+$7 million)
2. Dodgers trade Yasiel Puig to TB for Matt Duffy. (-$8 million)
3. Dodgers trade Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda and Matt Kemp to the Yankees for Giancarlo Stanton. (- $12 million)
4. Dodgers sign DJ LeMahieu (+$10 Million)
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Lineup:
1. LeMahieu 2B
2. Seager SS
3. Turner 3B
4. Stanton RF
5. Realmuto C
6. Bellinger 1B
7. Taylor CF
8. Pederson/Hernandez LF
The Dodgers could be still fixed on Realmuto.
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The only thing I know for sure is that I am sure I know nothing about what Friedman intends to do.
There was a time i coveted boxberger
I’m just glad some trades are happening today. Winter Meetings could be wild.
Gomes is off the board. Traded to the Nats.
Just heard Segura to the Phillies is strongly rumored to be happening.
Dodgers reach agreement with Cingrani for $2.7 MM for 2019. Wow – a lot of money for essentially nothing last season. He had shoulder issues – I wonder if he’ll ever recover (hard to overcome shoulder injuries).
I wonder what we could get for Edwin Rios? He seems like he might better suited for the AL but I’d love to see him get some at-bats for the big club this year. Some have said he and Connor Joe would get long looks this spring, but Joe wasn’t protected and it’s hard for me to see a situation where Rios makes the team. Maybe if Joc is traded and we want a LH bat on the bench. Idle thoughts for a slow early afternoon . . .
Billy Hamilton was non tendered by the Reds that would be a decent pickup
Dan O’Dowd and the guys on MLB Now was saying the same thing as me. Cleveland is trying to get younger and shave payroll while extending their window. Grabbing Wood and Puig makes little sense for them. It backs up what I’m saying which it is the Dodgers pushing those two names fort the same reason. Friedman and Kasten are most likely content being the Atlanta Braves of the 90’s(which is pretty damn good), but at this point maybe not willing to bust through the luxury tax to get a WS Championship.
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They said Verdugo, Alvarez, and one of the catchers makes more sense or asking for a Bellinger for Kubler. They said the Dodgers value May and Lux the most and May was the guy they refused to deal at the deadline last season. Maeda may make more sense for Cleveland than Wood.
One Seattle deal down – RHRP Alex Colome to ChiSox for Catcher Omar Narvaez.
Relief stats are very interesting. You can twist and turn them to meet any of your expectations. Mark used ERA and WHIP as comparisons, but there are many other pertinent metrics.
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Save Opportunities – Dodgers 74 – Tied for 3rd; Boston 66 – Tied for 8th
Saves – Dodgers 48 – 6th; Boston 46 Tied for 7th
Blown Saves – Dodgers 26 – Tied for 5th most; Boston 20 – 15th
Save % – Dodgers 64.86% – 21st; Boston 69.70% – 9th
Relief Wins – Dodgers 35 – Tied for 6th; Boston 40 – 4th
Relief Losses – Dodgers 33 – 5th most; Boston 16 – Least in MLB
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I only used Boston as a comparison because Mark did, but IMO the relief stats are telling when compared to MLB. The Dodgers had the 6th most saves, but also the 5th most of blown saves. The Dodger relievers were tied for the 6th most wins, but also had the 5th most losses. With the offense that Boston had, relief pitching wasn’t nearly as important as it was with the Dodgers. The Red Sox weren’t nearly as reliant on their bullpen as the Dodgers were, but their results generated more wins and less losses.
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Another telling metric for me is inherited runners and inherited runners scored. The Dodgers were 25th in MLB with the number of runners inherited by relievers with 197. Of those 197 inherited runners, 47 scored or 24%; a percentage which tied for best in MLB with Houston. While that by itself is very encouraging, couple that with the number of blown saves and relief losses, and that would indicate that the games were close, and the 47 runs that scored were critical in the loss outcomes.
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The NL West as a division did not fare well in the above metrics.
Colorado – 32 W, 29 L, 27 BS – Win Differential +3
LAD – 35 W, 33 L, 26 BS – Win Differential +2
SFG – 31 W, 30 L, 30 BS – Win Differential +1
AZ – 23 W, 35 L, 27 BS, Win Differential -12
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With the amount of money spent on the bullpen by Colorado, I am sure they were hoping (expecting better results). Even with that, if they would have had one less blown save, they win the division. It is very clear that Arizona’s bullpen let them down hugely.
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If you do not think that a bullpen is valuable, let’s look at some of the other bullpens of other successful teams.
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Three 100+ win teams:
Boston – 40-16; +24
Houston – 31-23; +8
NYY – 35-20; +15
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Three unexpected 90+ win teams:
Oakland – 45-17; +28
Milwaukee – 42-21; +21
Tampa Bay – 55-36; +19
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Other Contenders:
Cubs – 36-18; +18
Atlanta – 30-26; +4
Phil – 26-26; 0
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A big surprise for me was that Cleveland relievers were 15-29; -14. That was horrid, and they knew it. But they had a 71% save percentage. That seems to indicate that the starting pitching was pretty good for Cleveland. Might that be a reason for Andrew’s interest in Kluber, Carrasco, and Bauer?
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One final note – NYM relievers were 27-36; -9. Perhaps that is why they want Edwin Diaz. Seattle had a+11 reliever win differential and had a 74% save percentage good for 2nd in MLB, behind…Texas’ 75%; Kela and Leclerc. What might have happened if the Dodgers traded for either of those relievers instead of Axford, Rosscup and Madson as I hoped for? We will never know.
Guys n gals, don’tya just want to see what Verdugo will do with a few AB’s and hopefully a set spot in the OF, if the Puig is jettisoned..
P.S. and yes I know they’re only prospects…
It’s rare to find a trade that both sides hate, but the Seattle/Mets one might be a worthy candidate. Seattle fans are mad that Diaz’s [immense] value is being undercut by tying him to an albatross of a contract in Cano; Mets fans are questioning the logic of targeting a declining asset like Cano when they have plenty of money to just sign a reliever.
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As it stands, I think Seattle stands to get the least out of it, as there is likely only one premium prospect coming back and he is years away.
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Diaz, even though a reliever, is an incredibly valuable piece and I would personally trade Verdugo & White for him–for example–without hesitation.
I can agree on the premise that the closer sets the tone but in Boston’s case, Kennedy and Evoldi set the tone and Kennedy did it unexpectedly.
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Seattle has in the past loved Seager but after last year, maybe not so much. I wonder if Seager, Cano, Diaz might go to the Mets in return for Syndergaard, Bruce, and whatever? Seattle needs to reduce their payroll.
Come WS and I’m in it, I throw all caution to the wind!! Can Hill, Kersh or anyone out there get me a couple outs??? There is no tommorow and no should be looking fwd to a round of golf or fishing…
Saw a special on Eck this morning…Now there was a beauty… Where have the Marianos gone???
i can only assume that Mark has written this post to draw a reaction so I will accommodate. Jansen didn’t look right all year. The Braintrust handled him completely wrong starting with the Spring. They didn’t let him work due to “fatigue” from the previous Fall (he must have been really tired since he had a 4 month rest). Then he wasn’t ready when the season started and didn’t really look right until about June. But Jansen was hardly the bullpen’s only problem or even its biggest problem.
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The Dodgers’ bullpen blew 27 saves, 2nd worst in the NL. If Jansen blewe 4, who blew the rest? (4 of 42)
Chargois – 4 of 4
Alexander – 3 of 6
Baez – 2 of 2
Cingrani – 2 of 2
Goeddel – 2 of 2
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Per Baseball Reference.com. Jansen came in during the highest leverage situations on the team.
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The Dodgers allowed 24% of inherited runners to score. This was tops in the NL. Biggest culprits?
In raw numbers:
Chargois – 8
Alexander – 7
Baez – 6
Cingrani – 5
Hudson – 4
By percentage:
Goeddel – 100%
Cingrani, Madson, Axford – 50%
Garcia – 43%
Chargois – 42%
Rosscup – 33%
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Relief pitcher WHIP –
Jansen – .991 – best reliever on the team
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Axford – 2.727
Stewart – 1.821
Garcia – 1..475
some others –
Alexander – 1.273
Chargois – 1.268
Goeddel – 1.261
Baez – 1.250
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Relief pitcher bWAR –
Floro – 1.1 (lead team)
Fields – .9
Baez – .8
Jansen – .6
Alexander – .3
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Finally, your eyes didn’t lie. The Dodgers didn’t seem to pitch well in high leverage situations most of the season. Remember in August when Fangraphs had an article about how the Dodgers were one of the worst clutch teams in the past 40 years. The pitching and hitting were implicated in that.
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The Braintrust brought in Alexander and Koehler to augment the ‘pen before the season. Alexander was maddening, walking way too many for a late inning reliever. They added the likes of Axford, Madson and Rosscup at or after the deadline. All were bad. Mid-season additions like Goeddel, Chargois and Floro had their moments – Floro was especially good. In general, additions to the Dodgers’ ‘pen were mediocre at best – the big positive was Floro. Also, calling Ferguson up and installing him in the ‘pen worked well.
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The Dodgers’ bullpen needs to improve if they are going to compete for a title next season.
The problem with the Dodgers pen last year was squarely on Management’s failure to do anything to augment the back end, knowing full well that Jansen was less than his normal self. He looked a little heavier all year, had some hamstring issues leading to mechanical issues and then suffered the ultimate recurring heart issue. His velocity, like Kershaw, was down a couple of ticks all year. We all know they did nothing to help him out at the trade deadline and instead looking deep into their spreadsheets and found Axford and Madson. We all know how that worked out. Maybe that’s why Farhan is now a Giant. I’m not buying that Farhan and Ward left the organization entirely on their own doing when the team as a whole regressed from 2017 and failed to hit in the post-season. The only person that will be missed from the management and coaching changes will be Chris Woodward who did a great job as a third base coach and infield coach.
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This week has been entirely boring. Thanks again for giving us something compelling to read each day. I truly appreciate your diligence and the community’s responses to these tidbits.
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It seems like a trade with the Indians is imminent. I’m hoping that deal doesn’t include Puig as MLBTR suggests that it makes no sense that the Indians trying to shed payroll would be targeting Puig and Wood as the main return. But, sometimes trades don’t make sense, like Seattle sending Cano to the Mets, including Diaz and cash to offset the salary of one of the best hitting second baseman in baseball. Wait, there’s more. Taking Jay Bruce’s contract back with it? Wow! Seems like the Mets are gonna make another attempt at competing. Makes me thing Thor won’t be traded.
There were times last year when Kenley entered the game you knew he wasn’t right and as you would say even Stevie Wonder could see it…
That lies with the bullpen coach, because he knew… Maternal issues and heart issues all played a part, but if you’re not 100% you’re not helping the team…
Sort of smacks of Yasmani’s problems over the last couple seasons and reported!!