Jack Webb (1920-82) will live on forever in the hearts of TV fans as the no-nonsense cop with Badge 714. His creation and portrayal of Sgt. Joe Friday on Dragnet – and memorable lines such as “Just the facts, ma’am” – made him and the series a cult following.
Well, that is a doggish thing to say… but seriously folks, if we were to just stick to the facts on this blog, it would be crickets! We could say very little.
- “I think the Dodgers bullpen is better than last year.”
- “The bullpen is where he needs to improve.”
- “The Dodgers have essentially done nothing.”
- “I’m really excited about David Price.”
- “David Price has not pitched well in three years.”
- “San Diego is much better than last year and has caught the Dodgers.”
- “The Dodgers are still better than San Diego.”
None of that is currently a fact! They are all opinions. Facts will come, but right about now, all we are talking about are opinions. I see the glass half full – you see it half empty. Who’s right? Only time will tell. That’s why they play the game.
Here’s a fact: Bullpen pitchers are very fickle and highly unpredictable. Maybe I could exchange the word “highly” with “wildly.” Yeah, that is probably a better description of most bullpen pitchers. The fact that many bullpen pitchers are “wildly unpredictable” is very predictable. Many fans make a point of saying that the Dodgers bullpen is not very good and that Andrew Friedman either isn’t done or that he doesn’t know how to build a bullpen.
It’s fact that building a bullpen is difficult and unpredictable. It’s an opinion that the Dodgers bullpen is not very good. It’s an opinion that Andrew Friedman isn’t done. It’s an opinion that he doesn’t know how to build a bullpen.
Before the 2020 season, we had this exact same conversation with some of the same exact people about the state of the Dodgers’ bullpen. MLB, Fangraphs, and Bleacher report had ranked the Dodgers bullpen at the bottom of the Top 10 before the season started. We know how that turned out. The opinions of many about the Dodger bullpen before the season started did not materialize as facts.
Bullpens are not predictable – the best bullpen pitcher (Devin Williams) came out of nowhere and made a little over $200,000 in 2020 and he was unhittable. When I say unpredictable, I mean “wildly unpredictable!”
This is a discussion that comes up every offseason. It came up again the last offseason and when the dust had settled, here were the results:
- Dodgers bullpen was second in WAR to the Rays bullpen (3.6 to 3.7).
- The Dodgers bullpen was #2 to the A’s bullpen in ERA (2,74 to 2.72).
- The Dodgers bullpen was 2nd to the Cardinals bullpen in BABIP (.254 to .251).
- The Dodgers bullpen was 5th in IP.
- The Dodgers bullpen was #1 in WHIP, by a long shot (1.044 to 1.13 for the A’s)
- The Dodgers bullpen surrendered the lowest number of home runs. They were #1 with a 0.82 HR/9.
Opinions aside… those are all facts, yet many of you persist in saying that the Dodgers have done nothing and Andrew Friedman cannot build a bullpen. I will submit that you are assuming “facts not in evidence”. By just about EVERY metric, Andrew Friedman built a fine bullpen last year (even with Jansen and Kelly on the team – he’s learned from that!). You can berate the bullpen all you want. You can also join The Flat Earth Society, but it doesn’t make it true.
Andrew Friedman is ever evolving. After screwing up big time with International Free Agents, he now has a better plan. Instead of signing a relief pitcher to a long-term deal ending with $20 million in the final year, he is following the statistical probability that relievers are wildly unpredictable and applying the the “strength in number” factor to that reality.
Probability deals with predicting the likelihood of future events, while statistics involves the analysis of the frequency of past events. Probability is primarily a theoretical branch of mathematics, which studies the consequences of mathematical definitions.
Just like talent evaluators are not always right, statistics and probability are not always right. If you were a Life Insurance Company and you insured three people for a million dollars each, the odds are you would have to pay out more than you took in, but if you spread out that liability to a million people, the picture looks entirely different.
That is exactly what Andrew Friedman is doing with the Dodger bullpen. I won’t rehash all the prospects, suspects, re-treads, has-beens, never-weres, blind, crippled, or crazy ones. Andrew Friedman has assembled about 25 pitchers to audition for 8 spots and if you consider that at least 6 or 7 of those spots (barring injury) are locks, that means he only has to find one or two pitchers in that scrap heap.
Statistically, those odds are pretty good. He doesn’t need 25, he needs to find one or two. I don’t know what the plan is with Jimmy Nelson. Will he stay a starter or go to the bullpen? What is the statistical probability that Jimmy comes back and pitches successfully? The same with Brandon Morrow. We don’t know, but it’s likely that AF has an idea.
Joe Kelly’s ERA looked good last year, but we know he wasn’t. Can he have one good year in LA? At this point, I really have no opinion, but it is possible. What can we expect of Kenley? We all have opinions, but not facts. Past performance (good or bad) is not proof of future prospects. I cannot say with any degree of certainty that Victor Gonzalez, Scott Alexander, Gerardo Carrillo, Garrett Cleavinger, Dylan Floro, Brusdar Graterol, Tony Gonsolin, Corey Knebel, Adam Kolarek, Blake Treinen, or Mitch White will have a great season. I do not know if Ryan Pepiot or Edwin Uceta will be ready.
What I do know is that while I cannot individually predict what each pitcher will do, I feel very confident that “collectively” this bullpen can be great. There is a lot here to like, but that’s my opinion. Let’s see if I can rub your noses in the Facts come October! Let me conclude with this: I do not worry about the Padres. I have no control over them or the Dodgers, I just know that what you fear in the day, comes in the night!
Dodger News
- Kody Hoese is ranked the #8 third base prospect by MLB.
- MIke Busch is ranked the #5 second base prospect. They say this: “Busch could provide 25 or more homers on an annual basis thanks to his knack for barreling balls, his combination of bat speed and strength, and his polished approach. Primarily a first baseman and left fielder in college at North Carolina, he has improved his quickness and arm strength since signing, enhancing his chances of staying at second base.”
- JT allegedly has four offers. I have no clue where he will go.
Discussion (81)
Disagree, not disagreeable
https://www.mlb.com/news/justin-turner-signs-4-year-deal-with-dodgers-c212210494
Things are now really popping. The Giants look to be finalizing a deal for Tommy La Stella. I am a Tommy La Stella fan.
Andrelton Simmons signs with Minnesota, 1 year $10.5MM. That leaves Didi Gregorius as the remaining SS in this group.
Looks like Marcus Semien signed with Toronto for 1 yr, $18 million to play second base.
Too rich for me.
Another backup option for Justin Turner is gone.
But maybe that takes Toronto out of the JT sweepstakes.
Thank you. I asked Mark to remove my posts and he did so. Siemen to the Jays for 1 year, 18 million. As I thought, no one elected to the Hall. Rolen and Helton had the biggest increase in percentage. Schilling missed by 16 votes.
For what it’s worth Bear, I back you 1000%.
For what it’s worth Bear, I back you 1000%.
It’s been said, ” YOU CAN’T
KEEP A GOOD MAN DOWN ”
Hurry back when you can Bear.
Kind regards.
Hope all is well with you Bear. We all have lost it at times here. Well except for DBM! Get back ASAP.
Have a great day guys. I am out.
I recommend Ty Cobb, A Terrible Beauty by Charles Leerhsen. It debunks Al Stump’s book.
https://www.amazon.com/Ty-Cobb-Terrible-Charles-Leerhsen/dp/1451645791
I liked the article and I agree 100%, Mr.Timmons you are right
https://nypost.com/2015/05/31/how-ty-cobb-was-framed-as-a-racist/
Cassidy, i believe you are wrong about Ty Cobb. He has a bad reputation because of
” Fake News ” we need more
” just the facts “, and a lot less cancelation philosophy.
Realmuto back with the Phillis $115 M/5 Years..allegedly.
Last season because of the coronavirus the Dodgers played pretty crappy teams during the regular season for the most part. That’s why I pretty much ignore last year regular season stats.
At the end of this coming up season I will be glad to say Friedman built a good bullpen if the stats say that is the case. That is if it is a normal season and the Dodgers play a decent amount of good teams during the regular season.
I’m all in when it comes to signing relief pitchers on minor league deals because there is nothing to lose and maybe one or two of them become gems.
I have said that it is my opinion that the bullpen will be decent this year. I don’t prefer decent I prefer good.
I have been one who was critical of AF and his bullpen makeup. And I do not apologize for it:
2016 – RP not named Kenley Jansen with 20 or more games (in order of # of games pitched):
Joe Blanton
Pedro Baez
J.P. Howell
Louis Coleman
Adam Liberatore
Chris Hatcher
Grant Dayton
Jesse Chavez
Casey Fien
2017:
Ross Stripling
Pedro Baez
Josh Fields
Luis Avilan
Brandon Morrow
Chris Hatcher
Sergio Romo
Grant Dayton
Tony Watson
Tony Cingrani
2018:
Scott Alexander
Pedro Baez
Daniel Hudson
Josh Fields
Caleb Ferguson
JT Chargois
Erik Goeddel
Dylan Floro
Tony Cingrani
Yimi Garcia
2019:
Pedro Baez
Yimi Garcia
Joe Kelly
Dylan Floro
Julio Urias
Caleb Ferguson
Casey Sadler
JT Chargois
Scott Alexander
Adam Kolarek
Casey Fien, Casey Sadler, Louis Coleman, Chris Hatcher, Josh Fields, JT Chargois, Erik Goeddel, Zac Rosscup, Edward Paredes, Wilmer Font, Pat Venditte, Grant Dayton, Adam Liberatore, John Axford, Daniel Hudson, Jesse Chavez…No matter if your glass is half full, these were not good bullpen pieces, and most of those guys were major relievers. AF did well with Joe Blanton, and hit the jackpot with Brandon Morrow. And more to your point, neither pitcher was celebrated when they signed.
In 2017, I was a lonely voice for Brandon Morrow when he signed a MiLB contract. I said at the time he would be a big help to a mediocre bullpen. The reliever with the second most games pitched in 2017 did not make the post season roster (Baez). The two Tony’s were picked up at the trade deadline and pitched well in the WS, as did Strip, but all in a limited role. Because of lack of faith in the bullpen, the Dodgers were forced to abuse both KJ and Morrow throughout the playoffs, so much so that they ran out of gas. Out of 15 playoff games, Morrow pitched in 14 and KJ 13. The bullpen had to rely on Brandon McCarthy as a reliever. That did not end well. Fields was horrific. Kenta Maeda moved out of the starting rotation to be a big bullpen help. Does that read that AF had a good bullpen when it mattered most?
The 2018 bullpen was a joke, and it showed in the WS. At the trade deadline the Dodgers picked up John Axford and Ryan Madson. Axford did not make it to the playoffs. The Dodgers wish that Madson did not get to the WS. Mark likes to quote ERA’s for relievers, which for Madson was a respectable 2.08 for the playoffs. But ERA does not include inherited runners scored in that metric. In the NLDS and NLCS he inherited 7 runners and 2 scored. But in the WS, he pitched 4 games, inherited 7 runners and all 7 scored. AF was disappointed again with a bad bullpen when it mattered most, that he went out and overspent on one of the relievers who shut down the Dodgers…Joe Kelly.
But something else finally clicked for AF. In 2019 at the amateur draft, AF and his draft team decided to draft for relief: Ryan Pepiot (3), Jack Little (5), Aaron Ochsenbein (6), Nick Robertson (7), Alec Gamboa (9), Logan Boyer (11), Mitchell Tyranski (12) (A DC favorite), Jacob Cantleberry (13), Sean Mellen (14), Jeff Belge (18), Braidyn Fink (19), and others. That does not count Jimmy Lewis who was selected in Round 2, but figures to start. I am a big fan of the first four, and I believe a couple of the later round picks could be good, especially Belge and Fink.
In 2020, he signed Blake Treinen, a former closer. Someone who has done it before. Do the Dodgers win the WS without Treinen? Also signed Jake McGee, another late inning high leverage veteran reliever. I thought last year’s bullpen was very good, and I said so in the beginning of the year. He signed Blake Treinen and Jake McGee instead of Casey Fien, Erik Goeddel, Casey Sadler, John Axford, Louis Coleman…I would say he learned and grew.
I think this year’s bullpen could be excellent. Again for 2021, AF traded for a former late inning closer in Corey Knebel. He could be outstanding (or not). He re-signed Blake Treinen. If KJ does not pitch in back to back games, he showed that he can be very good. Not 2017 good, but good. Victor Gonzalez could be on the cusp of being outstanding as can Brusdar Graterol. Dylan Floro’s changeup makes for a big improvement in his repertoire, and he proved it to himself that he can get it over against big RH bats in Game 6 against Randy Arozarena. Self-confidence does wonders. Floro is a different pitcher with that change. Adam Kolarek is a lefty killer who has learned not to get beat by RH batters. He has been excellent for a year and a half for the Dodgers. I have little confidence in Joe Kelly, but for me a potential game changer is Tony Gonsolin. Somehow some way I think Kelly gets moved. Can Gonsolin close? Why not. But I think he assumes more of an Andrew Miller type role where he comes in to get middle of the order tough outs in the 6th, 7th , or 8th.
I think if AF was not already invested with $28.33MM in two relief pitchers, and more than $40MM on four, he would have been more inclined to spend on Trevor May, Trevor Rosenthal, Kirby Yates, Alex Colome. I am not as high on Hand, as his velo has seriously dropped the last two years. His slider is still good, but he has to set it up with his fastball which isn’t.
So while I once believed that AF did not value a bullpen, I think that changed after the 2018 WS. 2019 was not good, but it was a start. He was at least looking for relief help like Aaron Bummer during the winter, and Felipe Vazquez and Ken Giles at the deadline. He did not get any. Chisox said no on Bummer and thank God Pirates said no on Vazquez. Giles’ elbow was bothering him at the deadline (cortisone shot never a good sign at the deadline), and AF passed. But he was looking at quality relievers.
2020 was very good. I do believe that the 2021 bullpen will be better. While I would prefer another more recent closer to be added (Rosenthal or Colome), I do not see AF spending the necessary dollars. I am more than fine going to battle with: KJ, Treinen, Knebel, VGon, Graterol, Floro, Kolarek, and Gonsolin. I am still a believer in Brandon Morrow. And who knows, maybe Jimmy Nelson can become that Joe Blanton. There will be a time during the season, that Doc will need the likes of Scott Alexander, Josh Sborz, Garrett Cleavinger, Mitch White, Dennis Santana, Edwin Uceta, or Gerardo Carrillo. I agree with Mark that maybe one of those has a VGon or Graterol type breakthrough. I do not see a Devin Williams in any of them, but again to Mark’s point, neither did Milwaukee at first. If Ryan Pepiot has a good summer, he could be a late addition and could make a post season roster depending on the health of the others. And 2020 Playoffs hero, Julio Urias should make a return to the October bullpen.
No Mark, AF has changed his focus and philosophy on the bullpen. It is no longer an afterthought, and I do believe he will continue to focus more on the bullpen as the game is changing.
WHIP IT. WHIP IT GOOD.
Hand’s salary for this season is 4 Million. 6.5 is deferred over the next 3 years. Hmmm. AF could have matched that.
Strength in numbers! No one heard of Williams a year ago. Gonzalez has proven himself in clutch situations and if Graterol develops a better sharper slider he’s closer material. And in the playoffs probably May and Gonsolin will be available. It will be interesting which other youngsters will develop and who off the reclamation pile will deliver. I don’t think Padres or Atlanta have a lights out closer either. I’d take our bullpen over theirs.
Hall of Fame vote to be announced this evening. I do not think anyone makes it in. Schilling has lost support because of his posts on some social media, Bonds and Clemens are too far away to garner enough votes to get in, and none of the new candidates are even hall worthy. Helton may gain some steam, and Rolen too. Amazingly, Jeff Kent, the all time leader in Home Runs by a second baseman is still languishing around 25 percent. Kent has the 50th most RBI’s in MLB history. More than Piazza and some other Hall of Fame players.
Wouldn’t it be nice if the Dodgers had a proven bona fide closer, like some of the teams have? Someone who comes in for the last inning-plus, and has a very high save percentage? I do agree with what you always say, that relievers’ performances can vary from year to year. But somehow the Dodgers wanted to sigh Jansen to a four-year contract, because they also valued it. Unfortunately, Jansen has struggled in parts of every season since then, to the point that when it gets to playoff time, we scarcely use him. Are we going to go through another season with him blowing saves, or barely hanging on to them?
We got away with not having a closer, or really even a top set-up man, last year, but part of that was because the season was so short, and then we used Urias in the big playoff games, who did a great job. Assuming that he is now a starter, we will have to mix and match again. We do have some people with potential, but a few of them are reclamation projects with arm problems. We don’t know how the season will go, and who will step up, and who will be a disappointment, and who will go back on the injured list. But usually a season comes down to the playoffs; we will be against San Diego and/or Atlanta, an we might have a one-run lead going into the eighth inning, and who do we put in to hold that lead? At that point, an overall bullpen statistic will not matter;, it will be our set-up man and closer vs. Tatis or Machado , or Acuna or Freeman, with the game and series on the line. I would want us to have some of the best relievers in the game for those moments, but we have not for years. Our bullpen lost a key World Series game against Boston, it also did not come through in the extra-inning loss at Houston. The bullpens failed in playoff series against St Louis and Philadelphia., keeping us from possible championships.. No bullpen is perfect, but you want to have someone about whom you feel very confident in a tie or one-run game. I don’t feel that way about any of our relievers, maybe someone will step up in a big way, but it is far from certain, based on their recent performances and injury history. Well, we will not know how this will work out until one or two of the key playoff games when it will be our bullpen against theirs.
Enjoyed reading your article, Mark. Thank you. We do not have a crystal ball, are mind readers or privy to the decisions by AF and the Dodger organization. We all have hopes, wishes and, yes, guesses, and I enjoy reading them all. Facts or fiction?
Some quotes to think about:
“There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact”
“It is the absence of facts that frighten people: the gap you open, into which they pour their fears, fantasies, desires”
Still, it is always fun to speculate.
Excellent points on the bullpen, MT. You would think that with 25-28 pitchers in camp they can find a few guys to step up and win a bullpen job. The competition should be intense, as it should be. I’m just glad I’m not a bullpen catcher.
As mentioned yesterday, you can’t have all-stars everywhere and the bullpen can be pieced together with less expensive contracts. That’s especially true since we still have KJ and Kelly’s pricey contracts. I too am confident that AF will get this one right and we’re still the team to beat. While the youngsters lack experience there is plenty of talent there, IMO.
I love the shout out to Jack Webb. Great video and Joe Friday was such a hard-ass. One of the all time classics on the Johnny Carson Show was Johnny’s bit with Jack Webb, who had a great sense of humor. The Clyde Cooper and the Copper Clapper Caper is very funny and somehow done with a semi-straight face. If you don’t remember it, find it on You Tube.
Morning gang. Excellent write up Mark. Convincing Eric that AF knows how to build a pen would be even more daunting than building a pen. He uses his own formula and he sticks to it. Got to give him credit for that. The Turner situation is becoming a distraction. And some what of a pain. Just do what you have to do JT, sign, or move on. At this point I really do not care. Baseball will be played in LA with or without you. Snowing here today, so it does not feel like spring at all.
Mark, nice write up but let me know when you convince Eric about AF and our bullpen! I give up. If only we could sign Doolittle!
It seems as though Busch may have the best hitting tools of any of our prospects. He’s now considered a second baseman.
Lux is viewed as a “can’t miss”, or at least he was before 2020. He is also considered a second baseman.
Busch played both first base and left field in college. Why not give him some reps in left this year because if Lux actually does fulfill his potential, we’re going to need somewhere else for Busch to play and take advantage of his bat. It could be that he’s the ultimate successor to Muncy at first, but he could also be the successor to Pollock in left.
If his bat is as good as advertised and he has the ability to play three positions, he’s going to be very valuable.
Yes, the Dodgers bullpen was pretty good last year, but I think they have a chance to be better in 2021. I agree it only takes finding one or two to make it special. In addition to those expected to have a big impact, the Dodgers have some interesting bounce back options. Nelson is definitely an interesting pitcher, could go as a starter or reliever, depending how everything plays out this spring. Morrow, if he’s healthy, could prove to be a great signing.
Does Turner have options? Probably, but I can’t see him leaving LA. Time to wrap it up.
Fear of failure is a great motivator. Sometimes wolves are real. Are the Padres wolves?
If everything goes right they may give the Dodgers a serious run. Depth could be the difference maker and the Dodgers definitely have some quality depth. .
Good write-up, Mark.