In case you don’t know, a Wunderkind is “a child prodigy or one who succeeds in a competitive or highly difficult field or profession at an early age.” That would be Julio Urias. I find it incredulous that Julio Urias pitched 77 innings in the major leagues in 2016 as a 19 year old and compiled a 5-2 record with a 84 strikeouts and a 3.39 ERA and yet some fans suggest he needs another year at AAA. HELLO?
Then, they turn around and lament the trade of Jose De Leon who at the age of 24, in the same major league, pitched 17 innings with 15 strikeouts and 5 HR to go with a 6.35 ERA. He was five years older and could not hold a candle to Julio. I have pointed out that Clayton Kershaw in his first year, at age 20 pitched 107 innings with 109 hits and 100 strikeouts to go with a 4.26 ERA. The very next year, Clayton Kershaw broke out with a 2.79 ERA and 171 IP, 119 Hits and 185 K’s.
AND YET SOME THINK URIAS IS NOT ALL THAT? I’m not saying that people who say such stuff are dumb – they just have bad luck when it comes to thinking! Maybe they haven’t watched Julio pitch – yeah the cable company stole their signal and so they can claim insanity.
Here is a NEWS FLASH: Julio Urias is going to be very, very good… yes, in 2017! I will stop short of saying he will be better than Clayton Kershaw, but he is cut from the same cloth. Oh, sure – they are different pitchers, but Julio is going to be in the discussion as to who the best pitcher in baseball is shortly. Won’t it be cool that two are Dodgers?
Julio pitched 122 innings last year. He will push 200 this year. Farhan Zaidi said there are no pitch counts now. I think Julio will likely win 17 to 18 games in 2017, and God-forbid, if Clayton Kershaw were hurt, he might be the Dodgers Ace. I would look for him to go on the 10-day DL a couple of times next year, but he’s going to mostly be out there every 5th day, doing what he does – get batters out!
Actually, I think many teams, including the Dodgers will put pitchers on the 10-day DL this season to keep them fresh. Skip 2 starts and come back strong. I don’t know what the Dodger rotation will look like this year, because I have no clue if Ryu, McCarthy or Kazmir will be healthy. But, I do know that among De Leon, Alvarez, Buehler, Stewart and a couple of others, JDL was deemed the most expendable.
Enjoy watching “The Kid” this year. Kershaw is no longer The Kid – we’ve got a new kid on the block and he’s going to be damn good!
KID URIAS! Wunderkind!
UPDATE: Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Ethier – I have heard rumblings that the Dodgers would eat half of A-Gon’s and Andre’s salary if they can obtain a RH bat in a 3 or 4-way deal. Obviously A-Gon is from San Diego. Could he go back to end his career and what would SD be willing to give up to get him at $10 million a year for two more years? Cody Bellinger is very, very close! I do believe the Dodgers are shopping Ethier and Gonzalez – I just can’t see any takers unless they are packaged with younger prospects. I would not be surprised to see a blockbuster of epic proportions involving Gonzo, Ethier, Pederson, Puig and a few prospects. Those deals are generally 3 or 4-way deals and are very tricky. I’m not holding my breath.
UPDATE 2: Jose De Leon – I was just listening to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register and he said that the Dodgers did not regard Jose De Leon as a Top Prospect… and neither did the Twins, which was why the deal with them for Dozier did not happen. He also said that the Dodgers would not trade their other prospects in those deals. Bill Shaiken of The LA Times, says the same thing. Plunkett also thinks that Forsythe will be the primary leadoff hitter.
UPDATE 3: Ryu – He claims that he is in great shape and throwing without pain. Of course, he said the same thing last Spring. So, what we know is NOTHING!
UPDATE 4: Brett Eibner – Organizational Depth http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/athletics-trade-brett-eibner-dodgers.html
In case you wonder what the photos are, until Spring Training, I am running photos of Spring Training which I have taken from past Springs.
Discussion (96)
Disagree, not disagreeable
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-grant-dayton-an-elite-reliever/
I just ordered it:
Thanks!
The latest book I am reading:
It sounds like Alex Wood was added to JDL for Dozier and when the Twins didn’t want Wood they had a deal with him going to Seattle for a prospect more to the Twins liking.
Thanks Olive – I have a 2015 version and it is not there. Must have been added “afterward.” 😉
It’s there alright. I just have a hard time giving it credence in light of what Philly ended up getting – SVS? I could see De Leon, but here’s what I always heard (this from Jayson Stark):
[The Dodgers have] never been able to sell the Phillies on a package for Hamels that didn’t include someone like shortstop phenom Corey Seager or the Dodgers’ best pitching prospect, Julio Urias. We’ve heard rumblings that, if one of those two isn’t in the deal, the Phillies have asked for as many as six players back from the Dodgers’ 1-A prospect tier. And that ain’t happening, either.
However, Molly Knight seems very credible to me.
I’m just trying to stimulate come conversation with the biggest lie that I can think of!
The Dodgers are exploring the possibility of trading Corey Seager.
I compare all pitching deliveries to Greg Maddox’. Maddox threw like he was using a fork and knife. Not so Urias. The young pitchers all seem to throw at a max, falling off to the side. That’s probably a reason for TJ and shoulder problems. I hope the scouts are right.
I agree Urias makes it look pretty easy. He still has lots to learn but won’t learn except in the Bigs. Concern re: stamina right now and he won’t pitch more than 160 innings this year at 20 with only 126 IP last year.
Morrow – seems like more of the old and infirm. Have you checked out his medical history? Here is from Dodgers Digest:
“Morrow has dealt with shoulder, forearm, elbow, hand, and oblique injuries in his career, limiting him to 120.2 innings from 2013-15 as a starter. In 2016, he gave up on the starting role, instead becoming a member of the Padres bullpen. Morrow showed flashes there, putting up a 1.69 ERA in 16 innings (with a 4.37 FIP and 5.26 DRA), but he only threw 16 innings due to lingering problems with shoulder surgery that ended his 2015.”
From Bill Plunkett of the OC Register:
http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20170112/dodgers-pitching-shows-uncommon-depth-behind-kershaw
They’re putting the band back together. Of the 15 pitchers who started at least one game for the Dodgers in 2016, 11 are expected back in training camp this spring. Hill re-signed as a free agent, joining Kershaw and Maeda to form the front three. A rotation spot awaits the precocious 20-year-old Urias. Beyond that, a rotating door will likely usher an assortment of starters into the rotation at various times. That uncommon depth should allow the Dodgers to absorb the likely limitations in starts and innings they’ll get from a number of starters — either planned (to limit the innings on young arms like Urias) or unplanned (to injury-prone veterans).
THE NEXT LAYER
Even after sending three young pitchers (Jharel Cotton, Frankie Montas and former first-round pick Grant Holmes) to Oakland for Hill and outfielder Josh Reddick in July, the Dodgers’ farm system is fat with pitching prospects. Urias, Stripling, Stewart and De Leon made their big-league debuts last season and figure to contribute this year. Behind them, another wave is building. Right-hander Trevor Oaks is the most likely to be seen in Los Angeles this year, but Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez are blue-chippers on the way. Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery almost immediately after being drafted in the first round in 2015 and is set for his first full pro season. Signed as a teenager out of Cuba that same summer, Alvarez spent last season hitting 100 mph in Class-A.
MOVES THEY COULD MAKE
With so much inventory, the Dodgers would gladly unload veterans McCarthy or Kazmir and get out from under the remainder of their contracts. But that appears unlikely at this point (unless one or the other is attached to prospects in a larger deal). De Leon has reportedly been offered to the Minnesota Twins in trade talks for second baseman Brian Dozier. Those talks were tabled when the Twins set their sights on Buehler and Alvarez (or young first baseman Cody Bellinger) as additions to the deal.
I like the Morrow signing. It costs us basically nothing to see if he can stay healthy. To me, he has the potential to be Wade Davis.
On Morrow: I’ve seen him pitch on TV a few times. Nice looking pitcher. The trouble is: he gets hit. I think he throws a straight fast ball. A little bit like Eovaldi, who throws 98, but is hittable. It’s hard to believe that major league hitters can catch up with 98, but they do. There has to be movement. Morrow doesn’t have it. Maybe for 3 outs he might be ok.
I am wondering if the violence with which Urias pitches i.e. pitching technique has something to do with this extended spring training bull. If he pitches his way into the rotation at Glendale, he should get that 4th or 5th start that he deserves. He does need to get more efficient though, but his MLB experience should help in that regard. I am hoping he lights up the spring, and then the suits will have no real choice but to start him. We have too many starting pitchers, for sure. But each one comes with a price tag and injury history. The only one I want to keep is Wood because of his age and history of success with the Braves. Ryu may be a medical marvel. I want the name of his doctor to help with my shoulder. McCarthy can go elsewhere and tweet away, and Kazmir can go with him.
I am hopeful about Ryu, but have no expectations. If he is healthy, we could have four lefties in the rotation.
I do not agree with putting Urias on an extended Spring Training. I say let him go and see where he is at “pitch-wise” by June. Then DL him for 2 starts (10 days). Do the same in August and early September. I still think he will be close to 200 IP. Felix Hernandez threw 191 as 20 year-old. So have others. The Dodgers have babied him up to now. It’s time to let him pitch. 25 starts is about right.
It’s not the innings so much as it is number of pitches. If he can be stingier on his number of pitches, then he can pitch more innings.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/hyun-jin-ryu-says-hes-pain-free-ready-for-camp.html?fv-home=true&post-id=83768
Great news if accurate.
No particular topic today as we tread water waiting for February 15th. Throw anything out there…
Bill Polian is consulting with Jim Irsay as he decides who the Colts new GM will be. That’s pretty interesting!
Hawkeye,
Where did you hear that the Phillies were even considering a deal for Hamels that involved JDL and SVS? Two years ago, JDL was almost as highly regarded as Urias, but SVS has always been a journeyman. I did hear that Amaro did back off Urias but insisted that Pederson or Seager be included along with JDL and others.
I think that Urias can become a top of the rotation type of guy with the right attitude. He’s got the stuff, Roberts should start pushing him to go straight at batters. Sort of like Lasorda did with Hershiser. His pitch counts are too high.
It’s a great day to be a Dodger Fan at LA DODGER TALK.
Everyone is awesome.
Thank you for showing up.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/01/dodgers-to-sign-brandon-morrow.html
You beat me…
Low Risk – High Reward!
Dodgers signing Brandon Morrow for the ‘pen. High-upside, injury history. Limited exposure 1.25mm if he makes the roster.
DYK: Morrow was taken two spots ahead of Kershaw in the draft, so the Dodgers are getting the steal of the century.
I haven’t said Urias will pitch 200 innings but I said he would “push 200 innings.”
The Dodgers overpaid for WAR so they wouldn’t have to keep doing it.
Sure, they traded Montas, Holmes, Cotton and De Leon, but they kept Urias, Buehler, Alvarez, Stewart, White and a bunch of others. They traded from a surplus and did not sign long-term free agents, so that they could reap benefits in the end. Soon, the Giants will have $70 million a year tied up in 3 starters. How is that going to look for them?
Some fans just cannot grasp the concept that you can overpay on a risky short term deal, but not on a long-term deal which has the risk at the end. It is what happens when you take on aging players like Crawford and Gonzo. Crawfish is done, but the Dodger paid his last two years of $42 million for ZILCH production and Gonzo is declining faster than me. He is owed $43 Million. In 2018, all of these bad deals end. We are competitive now, but watch what happens in the future.
Urias isn’t pitching 200 innings this year. Here is from Dodgers.com:
“Roberts said that even though Julio Urias is “one of the five best starters in the organization,” the 20-year-old’s innings will still be limited. One option is for Urias to open the season at extended spring training; another is for him to skip multiple starts during the year.”
Great look a the rotation:
The Dodgers Rotation Is Risky, Expensive, and Fantastic
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-rotation-is-risky-expensive-and-fantastic/
I honestly don’t think A-Gon or Ethier CAN be traded, but I am sure someone will try. I know I would. It seems most likely that you allow Andre to start and hopefully he returns to form and then if injuries strike, you could possibly trade them… or not… and if they are producing at a high level, why would you?
Andre is playing for another contract, so maybe he will play out of his mind.
A-Gon is regressing and had his worst year last year, so maybe he works harder and gets better for one year? One can only hope.
The acquisition of Brett Eibner is a reminder that the two righty hitters SVS and Thompson had severe enough injuries to miss most of last year and that Kike’ was a bust. The crowded outfield isn’t crowded if SVS, Ethier, and Thompson aren’t healthy enough to play again.
Hard to think Agon will be traded before July when it will take that long to evaluate the health of SVS and Bellinger’s readiness.
Article by Phil Rogers on MLB.com:
http://m.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article/214356484/will-dodgers-be-a-better-team-than-cubs/
In part it says:
Forget that Logan Forsythe hasn’t hit 70 home runs over the last two seasons. He’s not quite as dangerous of a hitter as Brian Dozier.
Luckily for the Dodgers, he doesn’t have to be to count as a tipping point in the National League’s analytic balance of power.
According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers moved past the Cubs when they imported Forsythe to fill their second-base void. Forsythe is projected to be a two-win player, and with him in the mix, FanGraphs has the Dodgers down for 95 wins next season, one more than the Cubs.
Don’t shoot the messenger – I didn’t make it up – I just reported it!
1 – I doubt that Urias will be throwing 200 innings. He averaged a little more than 5 IP/start last year. He threw 126 IP last year at all levels combined. If they increase that by 25% that would be 160 IP and I doubt he will throw more than that as a 20 year old. He is probably #4 starter at this point. Will he pitch like an ace? I have no idea but hope he will.
2 – The Dodgers have to do something with all of the pitchers on the 40 man roster. If they carry a 12 man pitching staff, that will mean one of Kazmir, McCarthy or Ryu will be in the rotation if all are healthy (not likely, I know). Of the 7 in the ‘pen right now, we have Jansen, Baez, Dayton as locks. They have to decide about Wood, Libertore, Hatcher, Avilan, the other 2 injury-prone starters, Nuno and Stripling for the other 4 bullpen slots. If Wood and Libertore are probably going to make it, does that mean that the other 2 former starters will start the season in the ‘pen? I think that if they can find any takers it makes more sense to trade at least 1 of them.
3 – It makes sense to trade Ethier if they can find a taker and he waives his no-trade clause. They have other OF options. I’m not too sure about Gonzalez though. I would like to see Bellinger try his hand at AAA first.
Just read we traded for another outfielder. This one from the A’s, but was in the Royals system. Frias DFA’d. What’s going on? As far as I know, there are only 3 outfielders allowed on the field at one time. Unless the rules have changed, there is no buck short. Another move in the works?
I will be interested to see if Urias comes to Glendale in shape and ready to go. I don’t remember what it takes to get into shape as a 20 year old, but probably not as much as now. Still, if the arm is to be golden, I hope he as been doing something in the off season to keep it in shape. How about weight issues? Has that ever projected to be a problem with him. I would still like to see him lighten up on his delivery. He throws each pitch like it is his last. I don’t know how long he can keep that up. Also, am I remembering correctly that he ran a lot of long counts last year? I think he needs to focus on Strike 1. In spite of the strikeouts, I seem to recall a lot of 3-1,3-2,2-0 counts. I like Mark’s analysis, and there is no reason to think it is not accurate, but spring training will determine where he fits into this team because of the other dead wood on the staff. I can see him in the bullpen at least for a while. No on AAA again for him. On AGon: it would be a big mistake to get rid of him. Bellinger still has a lot of learning to do as a hitter, and the holes in his swing will be apparent against major league pitching. AGon is a sure thing on a team without many of them. I may change my mind if Bellinger is given a lot of AB’s in spring, and the hits .400. I can’t see that happening. But with AGon in the WBC, he will get a chance early in spring training.
Keith Law has Yadier Alvarez ranked #46 on his TOP MLB Prospects:
or raw stuff, Alvarez might be the best pitching prospect in the minors. He’ll work in the upper 90s and can show you a plus slider now and again, but the lack of consistency and command hold him out of the upper tier of this list. Alvarez signed as an amateur free agent out of Cuba for $16 million in 2016, which meant the Dodgers paid double that including the penalty for exceeding their bonus cap, so he’d better have a good arm … and he does. But he showed up last summer struggling to find the plate, so he didn’t debut in pro ball until this year’s Arizona League.
The Dodgers slowed his tempo, so Alvarez’s delivery is more deliberate now, to the point that it’s surprising how hard he’s throwing, and he’s staying on top of the ball and getting more online to the plate. The slider is good, but the big power curveball might end up better if he focuses on that pitch. He might pitch with four distinct offerings, two or even three grading plus, but it’s thrown with grade 40 command, which would make him a big league starter but maybe just an average one. If the command improves — and there’s no delivery-related reason it can’t — then he has a chance to profile anywhere up to the top of a rotation.
Update above.
Nothing to get overly excited about… unless you are excitable about AAAA players.
I am working on getting paragraph spacing back. Hopefully we will figure it out soon.
Welcome to Melton. Since he and Mark brought up the “other board”, I posted the following on the other board concerning that dreaded topic “The Trade”. I thought it blew out any argument that DeLeon would have got us Hamels (without Seager/Urias). I got no reply’s there. Any thoughts here.
Maybe, just maybe, the Phillies knew better than you guys!!! Maybe, just maybe, the Phillies don’t get their scouting reports the same place you guys do. Maybe just maybe, the Phillies are a lot better off having traded with Texas.
ESPN’s Keith Law: Cole Hamels trade was ‘Phillies’ Herschel Walker moment’
For the first time in years, Phillies spring training is the root of optimism in Philadelphia. While 2016 results likely won’t be pretty (USA Today and Baseball Prospectus peg them for worst record in baseball), the future is looking bright.
Much of that is thanks due to a farm system that has been overhauled over the last 18 months–stemming in large part from the July 2015 trade of Cole Hamels to the Texas Rangers. In return, the Phillies landed five prospects: Catcher Jorge Alfaro, outfielder Nick Williams and three right-handed pitchers, Jake Thompson, Jared Eickhoff and Alec Asher.
The quantity, along with quality, of that deal spurred ESPN prospect expert Keith Law to rank the Phillies among the better farm systems in baseball heading into 2016 and put the deal in historical terms.
“It’s the Phillies’ Herschel Walker moment,” Law told NJ Advance Media during a conference call on Tuesday. “Yes, I’m showing my age, but I believe that. When the Dallas Cowboys dealt Walker to the Minnesota Vikings, it set up their next winning team with an amazing array of assets. This deal did that for the Phillies.”
“Alfaro is hitter, regardless of if he plays catcher or the outfield,” Law said. “Williams has a chance to be very dynamic. I’m convinced that Jake Thompson is a major-league starter, likely a very solid No. 3. Those players all could be part of the next winning Phillies team or shipped off in trades to acquire players that will get the Phillies there by the end of this decade.”
While Law’s comparison is historical and paints the trade in a very positive light for the Phillies, it’s viewed through a cross-sports lenses. When asked if it compares to any recent baseball haul, Law pointed out one of the most lopsided-trades in recent history: The 2003 trade that sent Bartolo Colon from the Cleveland Indians to the Montreal Expos for prospects Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips.
TEXAS PLAYERS
Jorge Alfaro, catcher, Now 23 yrs old, 16 MLB at bats
Nick Williams, outfielder, Now 23 yrs old, hasn’t made it to MLB
Jake Thompson, pitcher, Now 22 yrs old, 2016: 53IP, 5.70ERA, 1.51WHIP
Jared Eickhoff, pitcher, Now 26 yrs old, 2016: 197IP, 3.65ERA, 1.16WHIP
Alec Asher, pitcher, Now 25 yrs old, 28IP, 2.28ERA, .94WHIP
DODGER PLAYERS
Jose DeLeon, Now 24 yrs old, 17IP, 6.35ERA, 1.53WHIP
Jose Peraza, Wasn’t even a Dodger until a day before the Hamels trade
PHILLIES TO DODGERS (Just like Twins to Dodgers) We want more than DeLeon for Hamels. Urias and Seager you got a deal!!!!!!! Otherwise he goes to Texas.
“they have bad luck when it comes to thinking”…….classic M.T. Welcome back you were sorely missed
Driman
If Ryu, Kasmir, and McCarthy are healthy and pitching well in Spring Training the Dodgers will try their best to trade one, two, or all three. If a trade can’t be made, I think the rotation will be Kershaw, Maeda, Kasmir, McCarthy, Ryu and Urias will be in OK where he can conserve his pitch count. He will be brought up when a trade thins out the rotation.
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I have been down on De Leon since he was rested coming out of Spring Training last year. That was a good trade.
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San Diego probably like to have a veteran team leader to help all their young players progress. Agon could be traded with SVS playing first until Bellinger is ready. Maybe Ethier could be traded to the Angels. They always seem to need a lefty hitter and did I hear Pujols might be injured?
I think Pederson and Puig will be Dodgers.