Julio Urias: Elite Starter

Clayton Kershaw was called up to the Show in 2008 at the age of 20. In 107 IP, he allowed 109 hits, struck out 100, with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.495 WHIP. Of course, he went on to build a Hall-of-Fame Career!

Julio Urias was called up to the Show in 2016 at the age of 19. In 77 IP he allowed 81 hits, struck out 84, with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.455 WHIP. Now, after injury and other BS, he is 23 years old and finally ready to take up where he left off.

Julio Urias has pitched parts of 4 seasons in the Bigs, where he has a 3.18 ERA, 1,283 WHIP and in 184 IP has struck out 187. The Dodgers were treating him with kid gloves when he had a shoulder injury that caused him to miss parts of two seasons. He’s barely more than a rookie, but he’s mature beyond his years and has the repertoire of an Ace. The good news is that his shoulder suffered no structural damage.

Urias’ repertoire and usage thereof is extremely advanced., even at 23. His fastball is plus and will sit at 92-95 while touching 98 MPH. It can be fairly straight, but Urias generally commands it down or below the zone and to both sides of the plate. He generates lots of ground balls when he’s not catching hitters looking on the corners or blowing away the ones who struggle with velocity. The heater is complemented by a plus low-80s curveball and an 82-85 mph changeup that is consistently above average. Urias’ usage of his repertoire is just as impressive as his pure stuff. You’ll see him back door and back foot the curveball to right-handed hitters, pitch backward with it to lefties and rarely leave a secondary pitch hanging in a place where it can be punished.

On many teams, Julio would profile as an Ace, but he’s not needed to do that in LA. He’s going to start the season as the Dodgers Number Four Starter. I would say that he’s likely the very best number four starter in all of baseball. Dodgers.com, Ken Gurnick reports this today:

“It’s Julio’s time to make that jump and be a starter,” manager Dave Roberts said. “The challenge for Julio is to sustain it all year long. I think that that’s where the maturity has to come into place and, you know, the weight room and obviously stuff on the field matters, so it’s the consistency that we’re looking for from him.”

The Dodgers went from having high expectations for Urías to not knowing what to expect. Here’s what he expects from himself.
“If this season they give me the opportunity to really go out there and just pitch,” said Urías, “I feel like this year is the year I can really take off. I feel it’s a really important year for my career.”

Urías has not had the luxury of flying under the radar. “Expectations” could be on the back of his jersey as well. He was signed by Mike Brito on his 16th birthday while the Dodgers were pursuing Yasiel Puig, debuted at 19, underwent surgery on his shoulder capsule at 21 and throughout has had his innings limited — first because of his youth, then because of the injury.

A left-handed native of Mexico with poise and advanced off-speed pitches, Urías was compared with Fernando Valenzuela. Left-handed and hard-throwing with a repeatable delivery, he was compared with Clayton Kershaw. In 2016, MLB Pipeline ranked him the top left-handed pitching prospect in the game.

Then came the speed bumps, including Minor League demotions that he now concedes crept into his head and left him wondering if each Major League appearance could be his last.

“Sometimes you carry that into the game with that thought in your head that you’ll be gone after that game,” he said. “Last year I started focusing on controlling what I can control and being locked in and [showing] that confidence on the mound, as well.”

Last year, following his 20-game suspension, Urías wasn’t fit enough to handle a starter’s role down the stretch. Ultimately, that left the Dodgers to start Game 4 of the National League Division Series with Rich Hill, who was pitching with a torn elbow and lasted only 2 2/3 innings.

Fast forward, and Urías is being slotted into the fourth spot of the rotation, behind Kershaw, Walker Buehler and David Price, and ahead of the cattle-call competition for the fifth job — even though he’s averaged only 44 2/3 innings over his seven professional seasons, including 81 2/3 last year.

He understands he’s in this position in part because of his talent, and in part because so many expected so much.

“I’m proud that they compared me to those players,” he said. “You look at someone like Kershaw, one of the best pitchers of his generation. It’s something that makes me proud to have that expectation. There’s a reason they have me here, and I’m going to try to make my own career.”

His domestic violence issue last year was BS and that is all I am going to say about it in our politically incorrect society. He had to play along. It’s over… move on. There’s nothing to see here. Julio is not THAT guy!

I would love to see the Dodgers use a six-man rotation this season. I think it would be perfect for everyone involved, especially Kershaw, Price, Buehler, Urias, and Wood. Keep their innings at about 160-170 and be fresh for the playoffs.

Some fans think Urias would be better in the bullpen because he has a better ERA as a reliever. You never take a pitcher who has four elite pitches and put him in the pen unless there is some underlying reason. Starters are much rarer and more valuable than relievers and you would never move Julio to the bullpen unless Doctors or his own lack of control dictated that.

He is equally effective against RH or LH batters and has good control for someone so young. Since his fastball is very straight, it is important that he locate it properly to set up his other pitches. I hear that he is working with the pitching coaches to get more “bite” with his fastball. If they are successful in doing that, he’s your 1A!

I know some of you are skeptics, but Andrew Friedman refused to include Julio Urias in many potential trades. You are about to fund out why. It’s a BIG WHY!

Photo credit: Jon SooHoo/Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodger News

• Tony Gonsolin will start Saturday’s Game and Alex Wood will start Sunday’s game. Let’s see if they can go 2 innings!
• I believe the Dodgers are television all the Spring Training Games this year. Last year some of the first games were not televised. The only ones not televised are split-squad games, but you may be able to get the other team feed.
• I buy the MLB TV Package and use https://www.hidemyass.com/en-us/pricing so that I can see games even when they are blacked out.
• I continue to be a big fan of this pitching staff. I think they will find 13 excellent pitchers… I just can’t predict who they all will be.