First of all, I would like to be the 10,000,000th Dodger fan to welcome JT back into the fold. I never thought he was going anywhere, so it was not a surprise to me. Nevertheless, he is a key cog into the well-oiled LAD machine and the Dodgers can head to ST ready to challenge all comers in their quest for a repeat. Take that San Diego. I guess I get to continue to wear my #10 JT jersey for the next couple of years at least. As I am writing this, JT has tweeted that he is here to stay, and the deal is reported to be for 2 years and $34MM, with a third year $14MM option, including an $8MM signing bonus. The deal also includes built-in escalators that could raise the overall value of the deal to $52MM over three years, conditional to MVP voting. No matter what source one chooses to use (Cots or Roster Resource), the Dodgers will exceed the Tier 2 threshold. Will there be other moves to bring the payroll back below $250MM? I am done speculating about what the Dodgers plan to do monetarily. One thing I will be VERY disappointed to see would be a trade of David Price.
I am happy that the Dodgers have re-signed JT, but this contract screams bonus for prior year results. Even though he is four years older, this is a greater AAV than his last contract. Thinking ahead, what affect will the last two signings have on a Clayton Kershaw re-sign? That is for another day.
JT’s “Here To Stay” tweet seems to indicate that JT will retire as a Dodger. With the expected universal DH to become a rule in 2022, JT can then sign a series of Nelson Cruz type one year DH contracts. Great for JT, great for LA, and great for LAD. There will not be a shortage of JT articles in the next several days in the Dodger blogosphere for information and opinions. I am sure the podcasts will be JT all the time.
Now with respect to the trades, I have maintained that I was a fan of both Adam Kolarek and Dylan Floro. I think both proved pivotal in the Dodgers march to a WS championship. The three pitch punchout of Randy Arozarena will put Floro in the Dodger’s hero discussions for years to come.
AF does not always come out and defend trades. Certainly, not of this magnitude (or lack thereof). But what it has done, is to perhaps leverage some of the current benefits with future rewards. What did the Dodgers give up? Two quality middle relievers over 30, and a 26 year old LH hitting OF, who is blocked.
Adam Kolarek is a LH side arming reliever who is very nasty to LH batters, but not so much to RH batters. What the A’s may have discovered is that Kolarek was very successful using a four seamer to RH batters. He threw 10 four seamers and did not give up a hit in 2020, and threw 81 in 2019 and allowed only a .180 BA. Maybe the A’s push that more against RH batters than did the Dodgers. The A’s have a knack of getting everything they can out of their bullpen.
I will be following Cody Thomas and hoping that he gets a chance in Oakland. However, for the Dodgers he was destined to be a AAAA player, and will probably never be more than a reserve OF for A’s. He has excellent defensive instincts, with good power. However he has a tendency to strikeout too much. He hit decently at High A, but not as good at AA. As a 24 year old in the Texas League, he hit .236/.308/.443/.751 in 532 PA. He had 23 HRs but 144 Ks (27% at AA). Two other LHH OF, Luke Raley and Zach Reks, both project to hit better than does Cody. He is currently rated #20 on the A’s MLB Pipeline Prospect List. There are 7 OF (6 younger) rated higher. Good luck to Cody in Oakland.
The Dodgers have acquired Dylan Floro twice before. Maybe there will be a third time in July. Miami does not figure to be in the hunt, so they could be selling. Floro will probably never be more than a very good middle reliever, but he was mostly effective for LAD, and never more so than in the 2nd inning of Game 6 of the 2020 WS. His last three pitches as a Dodger will always be remembered by Dodger fans.
What they got. A 26 year old utility player who could start at 3B or 2B for the Dodgers. Sheldon Neuse was projected to be the starting SS or 2B for Oakland before the A’s traded for Elvis Andrus for SS, and signed Jed Lowrie to a MiLB contract. If Lowrie cannot return to his 2018 All-Star season, then Chad Pinter and Tony Kemp will continue to platoon at 2B. But to Billy Beane, Jed Lowrie seemed a safer bet.
There was an interesting observation in the Athletic about the Neuse trade:
“Four years ago, the Dodgers acquired a 26-year-old who attended high school in Keller, Texas, played Big 12 baseball and spent time rotating between Triple A and the A’s roster. He had flashed some power, and he had flashed some patience. Stout and on the shorter side, that man did not have a specific position, though he could play a few in the infield. “
“On Friday, the Dodgers acquired another 26-year-old who attended high school in Keller, Texas, played Big 12 baseball, and spent time rotating between Triple-A and the A’s roster. He had flashed some power, and he had flashed some patience. Stout and on the shorter side, that man did not have a specific position, though he could play a few in the infield.”
Will Neuse become another Max Muncy or the heir apparent to Kike’ Hernandez/CT3? AF has uncovered diamonds before, has he done it again?
Gus Varland is a 24 year old RH pitcher who has undergone TJ surgery, so his pitching has not been extensive. He was a 2018 14th round draft pick, so he was not high on a lot of teams’ agendas. After returning from 2019 TJ surgery, Varland pitched in the A’s fall instructional league last summer, where he shined. Per Melissa Lockland of The Athletic:
“Varland is a three-pitch pitcher with a fastball that has a high spin rate and sits 92-94, touching 96. He also has a good slider and a developing changeup. Coming off of surgery, Varland may be moved into a bullpen role, although the A’s planned to develop him as a starter.”
Varland will probably not see action on the ML team this year, but if he continues to develop, he could be on the 2022 roster. He is currently targeted to be assigned to Tulsa (AA).
Alex Vesia won an opening day spot on the Marlins roster last year, but he did not pitch very well. But since being drafted in the 17th round of the 2018 draft, Vesia was converted into a reliever and has been highly successful. Through his first two years in the minors, Vesia has a cumulative 1.62 ERA in 100 innings pitched across 5 levels. Below is a twitter video of the movement on Vesia’s pitch.
Then a question and answer tweet about how his 4-seam fastball vertical movement compares against others in 2020.
Kyle Hurt was the 5th round pick of the Marlins in the 2020 draft out of USC. Automatically he joins my favorites group.☺ But there might be something to this 23 year old RHP, who is undoubtedly headed to the bullpen. He is tentatively assigned to Great Lakes, but that can change. Below is a scouting report that does not project him as a can’t miss, as well as a draft video of his pitching in the Cape Cod League.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/draft/kyle-hurt-669165
https://www.mlb.com/video/2020-draft-kyle-hurt-sp?t=mlb-draft
These are the kinds of trades where AF excels. They look like meh, but somehow someone emerges to be a star. Will Sheldon Neuse become another Max Muncy or Kike’ Hernandez. Possibly, but he apparently has the skillset to become at least a ML utility player with good defensive tools. Both Neuse and Vesia have been added to the 40 man roster and are under team control through 2026 (under the current CBA). Neuse has 2 options remaining while Vesia has 3.
Varland is Rule 5 eligible this winter, while Hurt will become Rule 5 eligible in December 2023.
For the last 39 years, we have not celebrated Valentine’s Day in our household. February 14, 2021 will be my daughter’s 39th birthday, and February 14th will always be her birthday rather than Valentine’s Day. But for those who do celebrate Valentine’s Day…
HAPPY VALENTINE’S DAY
Discussion (77)
Disagree, not disagreeable
When you see what Bauer is getting paid this year, can you just imagine what a Koufax could get in this era?
Sleeper for roster spot: Ruiz as 3rd catcher & LH PH.
Molly is relentless.
Per on Jon Heyman
Austin Barnes settles arbitration case with Dodgers.
$4.3M, 2 years
Signing bonus – $300,000
$1,500,000 – 2021
$2,500,000 – 2022
BASE IN 2022 INCREASES BY: $100,000 each for 70g; 80g in 2021
Plus in 2022: $100,000 each for 70g; 80g
I wonder who will get more wins this year, Trevor Bauer or the entire 5-man rotation of the Cleveland Indians.
The reason I ask is that we’ll be paying Bauer $40MM while the Indians will be paying all 5 starters less than $3MM combined!
Ain’t baseball funny.
You guys are sure putting a lot of faith in a guy who has 25 major league games under his belt. I do not think Neuse even makes the roster. As I see it right now the starters are Betts, Bellinger, Pollock, Turner, Seager, Lux, Muncy and Smith. Locks on the bench, Taylor, Barnes and Rios. That is 11 position players. If they carry 14 pitchers, then there is one slot open. And who ever that guy is, he is going to have to be versatile. McKinstry fits that description more than most of the other guys on the roster, and it gives you 2 lefty and 2 RH bats off of the bench. If they decide to carry 13 pitchers, that opens one more slot up. The starting lineup is split 4-4. RH bats are not really a problem. And since a huge percentage of pitchers in the majors are right handed, lefty’s are a good thing to have if you do not have RH bats that handle RHP that well. Pollock was their best at it last season. I expect Betts to be much better against them this season. Once he knows the league a little better, he will hit anybody. Taylor is better against RH than left. He has 39 HR’s of RHP and 20 off of lefty’s. I think Neuse will be at OKC and is more of an emergency back up than a bench guy.
Joe Kelly has become one of my favourite Dodgers.
I like people who say it as it is, and take responsibility for their performance.
Like Rich Hill before him, he doesn’t hide behind excuses.
He had a mystery injury at the end of the 19 season, and that seemed to overlap into the shortened 20 season, when he only was deemed fit enough to Pitch towards Playoff time.
If he can have a good ST and stay healthy, he will also be like having another new player this season to go with Price, Bauer, Knebel and Lux.
When he gets it right he is absolutely filthy – and I would add that he also looks like a really good team mate.
AF gave him that contract because that’s how good he can be.
I’m really hopeful that if fit he will be a major weapon (and he’s in his Walk year)!.
I’ll be rooting for him.
Before the Dodgers blew past the CBT threshold, they were viewed as possibly the best team in the league. Afterwards they are undoubtedly viewed as the best team in the league. That’s what spending money gets you. Any questions?
I think the Dodgers picked up several promising pitchers plus Sheldon Neuse who intrigues me. I think he is the in house replacement for Turner. I now see Rios as the in house replacement for Muncy.
That said, if Pollock were traded as a salary dump we might see Sheldon Neuse in LF.
Concerning Mark’s statement: ” That’s quite a contract for a guy who may start 120 games (or less). ” Just think of Bauer getting $1,333,333 for each of 30 starts, or based on 200 innings getting $200,000 per inning! Salaries are unbelievable. No wonder it cost so much many people can’t afford to attend. As for children, I have four ages 52-56. Where as the time gone?
Why are we the best team in baseball? Well having nine! 9! of the top 50 mlb players according to mlb’s top 100 players sure helps. And by the end of the year Urias will be in there as well!
Looking at the current list of pitchers the obvious guy to get rid of as a salary dump is Kelly. Is there any interest from other teams in signing him? Would the Dodgers need to pay a big portion of his bloated salary to a receiving team. How do we get rid of this guy and save some dough?
Here are the nine starting pitchers who will appear for the Dodgers this year:
1. Kershaw–this is it
2. Buehler–everybody knows
3. Bauer–don’t hold back
4. Price–welcome to LA
5. Urias–come get some
6. May–something wicked
7. Gonsolin–sleeper
8. White–in a pinch
9. Gray–next man up
There’s no way AF stays in Tier 2. Somebody is getting moved. I hope “my source” is wrong. I’m really excited to see Price pitch this year. But make no mistake, Urias will be in the playoff rotation. He’s gonna have gonna have an ace like year! And by the way, Happy Valentines Day to my source!
I am happy JT is back but did not expect the Dodgers or any team to pay that kind of money for him. But hey, it’s not my money so who cares.
Only thing left is to figure out who plays second full time and who is on the bench.
Pecota had us with 103 wins and taking the Division by 7 games before the Turner signing. Maybe they knew he was coming back. Most of us figured he would. Prediction – the third base tandem we have now will lead the league in collective WAR.
It would appear the nation is finally getting vaccinated. Good sign for summer baseball with at least some fans in attendance.
As far as luxury tax numbers go, when exactly is that calculated? Is it our salary going into the season? Halfway? End of the season? An average of beginning and end?
If we’re at $254 mil now, but in July we trade Kersh and Mookie and Bauer, and our salary drops to under $180mil, are we then under the cap, despite being over the cap on Opening Day? Which numbers are used to calculate who pays tax and who doesn’t?
I’m definitely not surprised that the Dodgers blew past the CBT. I was surprised that thy didn’t for several years in a row. I can’t claim to know what a team like the Dodgers makes, but I have a rough idea that it’s a lot more than most assume, otherwise they would open their books.
As far as the bullpen goes, I think it’ll be practically unstoppable. First off, Kenley isn’t horrible, he still gets K’s and saves. All he needed was a little more motivation or a safety net, whatever you want to call it. We have a three headed monster with 3 closers. It might not be the nasty boys Myers, Dibble, Charlton, but not many teams can boast 3 guys who have had historic years as closers on the same roster. Graterol and Kelly bring the gas from middle relief roles. V-Gon and Alexander are the lefties and Gonso’s the swing / long man. If you had to architect a pen from a clean slate, you can hardly do better.
Jansen R
Knebel R
Treinen R
Graterol R
Kelly R
V-Gon L
Alexander L
Gonsolin – Swing/Long
The bench looks a lot more balanced now as well. With a 26 man roster, you have your starting 5 in the rotation, 8 fielders, 8 relievers, and a 5 man bench starting with a backup catcher. My way too early bench looks like this…
Barnes R – C
Taylor R – OF/SS/2B
Neuse R – 2B/3B and I hear he can play some OF as well
Rios L – 1B/3B
The last spot comes down to…
McKinstry L – INF/OF
Recks L – OF
Rayley L – OF
The bench and bullpen is very well balanced between L and R. But, so is the starting lineup and the rotation…
Betts R
Seager L
Turner R
Bellinger L
Smith R
Muncy L
Pollock R
Lux L
Kershaw L
Bueller R
Price L
Bauer R
Urias L
This is the best team AF has ever assembled, top to bottom, to reserves, to AAA backups. This team is deep in talent and has a great balance between righties and lefties. There’s no obvious platoons with the exception of players that might need a little time off in JT, Pollock, Smith and Lux. We have significant coverage for all positions, multiple starters, closers and a deep trove of relievers. Multiple MVPs and CyYoung winners. This is as close to a perfect team as you can get and will go down in history as one of the best teams of all time.
It looks like Andrew has been slowly and patiently building this team throughout the years and has finally put the finishing touches on a historic juggernaut. I can’t wait for the season to begin.
Bear, I got you beat with my kid’s ages, but if I dwell on it too long I’ll need a nap…
JT is back and I’m happy… I know he’ll be fit and ready to play… Of course as usual the amount of $$$ shelled out had my brain going at an extreme spin rate…
Hopefully Rios gets a good look see at 3rd and will share some time with JT during the season…
I hope there’s some backing for me when I say to trade David Price would be a big mistake.. With his sitting out last year followed by a good 21 ST he will IMO be a mainstay of the staff… Just a strong hunch…
This to me puts and end also to the Madres overtaking the Blue this season… Before Bauer and now JT I had the Madres a huge pain in the arse for us… No Mas…
Great Summary, Jeff.
I am really shocked that AF was allowed to blow through the salary cap, both first and second-tier. I like JT, but he will experience some decline. That’s quite a contract for a guy who may start 120 games (or less). But, it’s not my money and I’ll take it. I guess it shows the level of commitment to winning another championship… and lest we frget, the more championships won, the higher the value of the franchise!
Happy Birthday to your daughter, Jeff. I just remembered that my daughter will be 40 on April 7th! Dang I am getting old. Happy Valentines Day!
Happy Valentines day to all of you married and those who are in a relationship. Hope you have a great day with your significant other. Another night where I just cannot get to sleep. Tried watching a bunch of episodes of NCIS which are available on Netflix. Might be because the weather is so cold outside right now. My heater is running constantly, and it is -4 right now. No snow though. I am really happy JT is back. But I also think there may be a move or two before they start signing guys to minor league deals and spring invites. I really think the two sleepers who have already been signed to those kinds of deals are Morrow, and Nelson. Both when healthy are flat nasty. I believe Morrow has the better chance of making the team, but do not fall asleep on Nelson. He could be the long man out of the pen if healthy, and allow May to get more seasoning. A lot of players signing minor league deals. I mentioned Bruce and Matt Harvey yesterday. Bruce with the Yanks and the Orioles signing Harvey. I also think that with JT back on the team that the Dodger offense is better than the Padres. The LA starting staff has a slight edge too. As for the pen, it will be like it usually is, a wait and see kind of thing. Never know what you are going to get out of these guys until the games start to mean something, They did take a few games off of the spring schedule. LA will now play 29 instead of 32. I look for the 26 man roster to carry at least 12 position players with no DH in sight. I do worry about the pitchers hitting though. More than a year since most of them have picked up a bat. One reason I really hope the DH comes back. I do not want to see Bauer or Kersh or any other pitcher injured while hitting. And it happens a lot. But the Dodger lineup is loaded. I think Lux will do just fine, and the biggest battle is going to be for who is going to be on the bench. A lot of lefty bats in the fight that is for sure. Now ate least, one of the infield positions will be manned most of the time by a righty. Neuse is a RH, so he will get some looks in spring, but I believe JT’s backup will once again be Rios. Taylor, Rios and Barnes are bench locks. So the battle for the last spot will be among a bunch of guys, Raley, Reks, McKinstry, Beaty, Peters, and just about anyone else you can think of. Going to be very fun to watch. McKinstry because of his versatility probably has the inside track. I also really believe that Keibert Ruiz is now a real candidate to be traded if a need arises. He is blocked at least for this year by Barnes. Although they could change gears and trade Barnes, but he is Kersh’s catcher.
JT has been my favorite player up until the acquisition of Mookie. I’m very pleased to see that JT will be with us for a few more years. I’ve always said he is the heart and soul of the team. Mark predicted he wouldn’t get more than $8M. Glad to see AF pony up and keep him in the fold. It’s still surprising that they didn’t keep Ryu, knowing how weak the starters were that we had. They’ve taken care of that problem this off season and look to be in top working order going into ST.
I can’t comment on the other trades as I don’t know any of the other players we’ve gotten. I will say that Kolarek surprised me last season. He had some great moments. I’ve always been a little luke warm towards Floro, though. I never felt any confidence in him and had the feeling he could fall apart at any moment, sort of like Jansen in the last couple of years. I do think the BP is not as strong as last year’s, but I may be wrong. We really had strength in numbers. I like the idea of moving Kelly, though. He is maybe the biggest question mark in recent Dodger history. Strange dude. Lucky to be where he is.
I’ll eagerly await the start of the season to see how things play out. SD will certainly challenge. I’m not sure if they can overtake us. Many things still have to click for that club but they’ve got some great talent. And, yes, I’ll be missing Kike more than Joc, but wish Joc well. Sometimes a change is enough to spark an athlete to another level.
I had never a doubt that the Dodgers would sign up JT. I just could not see them without him even if they did not have the DH. Very glad for him. Thanks for the article AC.
Also I want to wish all the Dodgers wives, girlfriends, or significant others, a Happy Valentines Day. I hope you all get spoiled.
Great stuff Jeff. I am glad to see JT back, but I was also ready to move on if he had signed elsewhere. I was very surprised by the amount of the contract with all of the escalators. But I also think he is being paid for being the leader he is in the clubhouse and one of the faces of the team.