For a couple of months, some Dodger fans have been saying that Keibert Ruiz will be traded with the rise of Will Smith and now Conner Wong. Dirk Calderwood said it best: “So Dodgers will trade the best most talented hitter in their farm?” He asked that question like it was totally absurd and it turns out he 100% is right. It’s at least as absurd as trading Alex Verdugo, Cody Bellinger, Julio Urias or Corey Seager.
Many Dodger fans were all too eager to trade Seager, Bellinger, Urias, and Verdugo at various times, although to a man (or woman) they now deny it. Don’t make me go back in the archives and dig out the comments. You know who you are and now you are in love with Will Smith and to a lesser extent, Conner Wong. Lots of fans are in love with the “flavor of the week.” Today, the flavors are Smith & Wong. Based upon what we are seeing, Will Smith and Conner Wong are headed to the Hall of Fame.
However, I would hold off a dozen years or so before making the busts of their faces. Just like Cody Bellinger was not going to hit .400, Will Smith is not going to 59 HR which was his pace a few days ago. Right about now, Will Smith is hitting .298 with a .370 OB% and OPS’ing 1.091. He also has 12 HR and 33 RBI in 119 Plate Appearances. If he does that over an entire season, he is unquestionably the best catcher EVER in baseball… EXCEPT THAT HE ISN’T!
I wish. I hope. I pray, that he is, but there is no way he can sustain that. At age 19, Will Smith hit .221 for the University of Louisville and followed that up with a .242 BA at age 20. He hit 2 HR his first two years in college. At age 21, he jumped up to .382 and had a .480 OB% while hitting 7 HR. That season got him drafted by the Dodgers.
Later that same year, he started out in Ogden for 7 games, moved to Great Lakes for 23 games and finished the season at Rancho Cucamonga for 25 games. His line for the season was .246 BA/.355 OB% (he has a good eye)/5 HR. In 2017 at age 22, he played all but one game at Rancho (one at Tulsa) and hit .231 (.358 OB%) and 11 HR. His strikeout rate increased to 29% from 24%.
In 2018, Will started at Tulsa where he hit .264 with a .358 OB% and blasted 19 HR before moving to OKC where he fell flat on his face (.138 BA/.206 OB%), striking out 38% of the time is 98 AB’s. Throughout the 2018 season, the Dodgers had been working on his swing and launch angle and that continued in the AFL where he hit .371 with a .452 OB%. He did only hit 2 HR there in 73 AB.
This year at age 24, Smith started at OKC and hit .269 with a .370 OB% and 20 HR. With his 12 with the Dodgers he now has 32 on the year. His strikeout rate is a manageable 24% and he has taken to his new swing like a pig to sloop, but like all hitters, the league will adjust and will he. Cody struggled and Will Smith will struggle as well.
For the record, I like Will Smith a lot and hope he is with the team for a long time… and I think he will be. However, I see him more as a backup catcher and utilityman. I like Keibert Ruiz as the Dodgers future catcher… even over Diego Cartya and here’s why:
Will Smith is about the size of Austin Barnes. He’s smallish for a catcher and I am not just talking about height (5′ 10″). Keibert Ruiz (at age 21 and 40 days) is 6′ 0″ and 200 pounds. By age 23 or 24 he will likely be 215 to 220.
I won’t go through all his minor league batting stats because they are eye-popping in the Rookie Leagues, Rancho and Tulsa until his age 19 year. Before this season, as a teenager, his career BA was .309 (3 years) and his strikeout rate was 11%. Remember, he was usually playing against players 2 to 4 years older.
After hitting .268 in his first year at Tulsa, the Dodgers decided to alter his swing and change the launch angle. Keibert has not taken to that like Will Smith because that also means you strikeout more. The power has not come yet, but it will. After hitting .254 in Tulsa this season, Ruiz hit .316 with 2 HR (40 AB’s) and just 1 K before a broken finger ended his season at OKC . When Smith moved to OKC the first time, he fell flat on his face – Ruiz got better!
To those of you who believe a players’ Age 20 season defines their career, I say you are silly, but KayBear’s Age 20 season was a success as he has finally embraced his new hitting style. Like Alex Verdugo, his power will come later.
For those of you who think Smith is superior defensively, you have to remember what attracted scouts to Ruiz in the first place: his defense. Here’s what BA says about him:
Track Record: Ruiz mainly attracted teams with his defense as an amateur in Venezuela, training at the academy run by former major league shortstop Carlos Guillen. Almost immediately after signing with the Dodgers, Ruiz began holding his own against older players. At age 17 he moved to the Rookie-level Pioneer League and hit .354 as the league’s youngest player. At 18 he jumped to full-season ball and hit .316 with an .813 OPS between low Class A and high Class A. And in his age-19 season, as the rare teenaged catcher in the upper levels, Ruiz had the lowest strikeout rate of any hitter in Double-A, hit a career-high with 12 home runs and ably handled Tulsa’s high-octane pitching staff.
Scouting Report: Ruiz originally intrigued with his defense, but as he’s progressed his offense stands out. He is a gifted switch-hitter with excellent timing and bat speed and loose wrists that enable him to manipulate the barrel to all parts of the zone, giving him excellent plate coverage. He has an aggressive approach and doesn’t walk much, but he stays within the strike zone and rarely swings and misses. Ruiz puts together good at-bats from both sides of the plate, but he has faster hand speed and more natural lift in his lefthanded swing. He has progressively added strength and increased his home run total every season, now projecting for double-digit homers to go with a plus bat. Ruiz’s defense lags behind his offense but is still advanced for his age and is constantly improving. He shows good timing blocking balls, is an above-average–if sometimes inconsistent–receiver and has developed a knack for backpicking runners. He has an average, accurate arm that occasionally gets slowed down by footwork and transfer issues, but he made strides to clean those up and improved his caught stealing rate to a career-best 26 percent in 2018. Ruiz also became more confident handling a staff, from presenting gameplans to pitchers to knowing when to take mound visits.
The Future: Ruiz’s success on both sides of the ball as a teenager in Double-A made him the top catching prospect in baseball for many evaluators. His potential as a switch-hitting, middle-of-the-order catcher has him positioned to be next in the long line of Dodgers great homegrown backstops.
The truth is: We don’t know how good Ruiz can be, but with his bat-to-ball ability (it’s the equal of Alex Verdugo… maybe better), he is likely a .300 hitter in the bigs with potential 20+ HR power. The fact that he’s a switch-hitter and both Wong and Cartya are RH, means he is not going anywhere.
- Seager
- Urias
- Bellinger
- Buehler
- Verdugo
- Smith
Next is the Kay Bear! Write it down. It might be 2020 or 2021. It depends on his progress and the Dodgers needs. Finally, he has a fantastic attitude and work ethic and as he becomes a man, his game will go to the next level. The Dodgers have very few needs that cannot be filled in-house this off-season and AF will not make any dope-fiend moves.
Discussion (96)
Disagree, not disagreeable
And how many line outs is that? And a couple with the bases loaded. I think Murphy has decided to spend some time with the Dodgers.
It’s all about the playoffs. Let’s pay the guys who produce come October!
If this continues with Ryu, it won’t just be the Dodgers who pass on him in free agency. Then again , who knows? Maybe Ryu has hit a wall or maybe he somehow finds a second wind.
Maybe we are not as good as we think we are, slightly above average since all star break, wake up, dog days are over, start playing better baseball now!!!
Exactly as I said it. The BP/Kelly couldn’t hold. 10-4.
When it rains it pours.
It is questionable why Doc left Ryu in for so long. Probably the fear of his BP being put on the line for the rest of the game. However, this is the 3rd losing start for Ryu. He was walloped by the Yankees his last outing and lost his outing in Atlanta. If the bats don’t save this game, Ryu will have lost 3 in a row. That is big, especially this time of year and to two top teams in the league. Many of us said he should be pulled and given time off to find his rhythm again. Does anyone doubt that right now? If he can’t find his way back, I wonder if that would affect the FO re-signing him. Dodgers look lost in this game.
If Ryu has a chance to be a Cy Young, I don’t understand why Roberts doesn’t change him before he damages his ERA. ???
This should make us appreciate how good Clayton has been this year. He has given up 4 ER 3 times this year. In every other game it was less. Maybe the peaks are not as high as they once were, but the lows are not low either. That’s why he’s still the Ace!
Wow after having that ridiculous ERA 3 weeks ago, Ryu ERA right now is 2.35.
Wow a month ago Ryu and Belli looked like shoe ins for Cy Young and MVP and now?
Here on this board we talk about who should be gone and etc.I say get rid of Roberts he has no clue when to take a pither out.
There goes Ryu’s Cy Young
There is no question in my mind that Ryu has “hit the wall.” He is physically or mentally tired… probably both. Skip his next two starts.
I agree with you Brooklyn. We got Darvish in 2017. Everyone thought he would lead us to a championship. In 2018 we got Manny. Now we have posters who say only if we got this guy. Joe Kelly was a mess until the WS started. Nobody knows what will happen. That includes every poster on this board.
Mark, you do a great job. 1949 delivered a low punch. I probably would kick him off the board, but I know you are bigger man than me.
Where is Lux? Pull him from OKC game and bubble wrap him until further testing is done on the wrist of Muncy.
Muncy just stated range of motion not good and it is very painful. He believes he got hit in the same spot as Taylor. Remember the initial test on Taylor showed no fracture as it was done on some archaic machine in Boston. The one they tested Max’s wrist on last night does not show small fractures so further testing will be needed.
I agree 59, Kelly has been awesome for the last two months, He deserves some run in the 9th inning or whatever the most high leverage situation is, His stuff is the best on the team and he arguably has pitched better then Jansen in the postseason.
This is how nasty Joe Kelly has become…
https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1167039602089189377
Since they put Kenley in the mix I don’t care about his situation, he has a month to solve it, if he doesn’t succeed, the team has interesting alternatives. This still has a lot of history to write.
I’m home now, and sitting at my computer posting this. I do most of my posting from my phone, but there are times that that can become frustrating. A lot easier with my clicky keyboard, and 24 inch 4K screen.
This is what I was going to say when my phone sabotaged me earlier:
1. Wasn’t Yu Darvish considered, almost universally, the prize pitching target at the 2017 trade deadline? And wasn’t there a lot of doubt expressed about Justin Verlander. If memory serves, there were a lot of questions regarding Verlander’s effectiveness at that time.
2. Also, if memory serves, I believe that Darvish pitched very well down the stretch for the Dodgers, and in the NLDS and NLCS. It was only in the WS where Darvish suddenly lost his effectiveness, which was only made to seem that much worse in contrast to Verlander’s performances.
3. With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight we now view Darvish and Verlander a lot differently than we did prior to their 2017 post-seasons. But 20-20 hindsight is just that; HINDSIGHT, and not VISION.
Today in AZ:
Joc
Beaty (1b)
JT
Belly
Pollock
Seager
Smith
Kike
Ryu
I will re-post what I started after I get home. I hate posting on my phone. All it takes is a stray movement by your finger, and everything you wrote is lost. And that’s what happened when I re-wrote my post, and then accidentally hit a link to another site.
I will, if time allows, re-post on my computer when I get home.
I haven’t read through ederyth
I can’t believe that we’re arguing about prospects. That’s all Ruiz is at this point. He may be the second coming of Mickey Cochrane, or the second coming of Dioner Navarro – we don’t know yet, nor will we for several years, assuming that the gets the chance to be a regular starter.
The same with Smith. He’s been great the 1st go round through the league, but the league will adjust. We have no idea whether he will be the next Buster Posey (per Buster Olney of ESPN.com, he is) or the next Bill Sudakis.
That’s why they call them prospects. You don’t know what you’ve got until you’ve got it.
I will say one thing – you trade from a position of strength, where you have more than what you need to get what you need from someone else. If the Dodgers are sure that Smith and Ruiz and Cartya are all going to be great, they should keep the best 2 and trade the other for a weakness elsewhere.
For now, there’s not one of us who can accurately predict the future. Until the future plays out, I suggest that the Dodgers will wait and see what they actually have.
I’m not the minor league expert (or the major league expert for that matter), but it seems Jeren Kendall has really turned it on the last month? Has he finally figured things out? I think it’s great he’s off to the AZ Fall League.
He is a gigantic wild card in the minors for us! I know many have already labeled him a bust, much as they did Lux. Hopefully Kendall is just a later bloomer (like CT3, Justin Turner, Max Muncy). As Dick Calderwood said above, “Youngsters rise at different speeds and hit speed bumps at different levels.”
I have no reason to doubt Ruiz’s ability. The Dodgers are in a position of strength at catcher. I have to say I don’t really count Wong though and for this season Ruiz’s spike at AAA could be attributed to getting hot, or the hitting coach, or the AAA balls being juiced like the MLB balls. Too small of a sample size.
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I would have dealt Ruiz for Vasquez and without knowing the other pieces offered I think Pittsburgh should have taken it. Huntington wanted the Dodgers to pay for his past mistakes dealing with Tampa and Texas.
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Ruiz deserves a full year at AAA for his development. His name will continue to pop up in trade talks. I would deal him for the right piece but I’m not giving him away just because the Dodgers are deep at that position. Catchers take a beating. Next year it could be Smith that breaks a finger or wrist. However, part of the reason you have a good farm system is to be able to go acquire assets from other teams. With the emergence of guys like Beaty and hitting on players like Gray shouldn’t we assume the Dodgers scouting and development will continue to be a strength. They can afford to deal from a position of strength when it’s the right time.
Gavin Lux illustrates my general reasoning about the farm. He could have been given up on as a never gonna improve young ball player. But they saw something I didn’t and now he’s on everyone’s can’t miss list. I still have hope Alvarez matures into his awesome physical potential. I’m in a small group there but I’m nothing if not stubborn. Youngsters rise at different speeds and hit speed bumps at different levels. Scouts see something special in Ruiz and also in Cartaya, and even in Alvarez. And all I really know is what I read in the scouting reports. Though I have to admit Ruiz’s value is high in trades I doubt if any team in MLB is likely to give back what he may end up being worth. I like the trades that trade ok MLB players that are not fitting into the program… for good prospects. I think you probably know which trade I’m talking about.
Last night was a W and a W is a W, however, it wasn’t a very satisfying W because the Pads gave it away as much as we won it. It is so much better when we are clearly the better team and we go out and play like it. Maeda has trouble getting out of the first inning. In fact, it seems that the first inning is difficult for several of our starters. It isn’t necessarily that they give up runs, but to often they are making 20-24 pitches in the first inning which translates into a shorter outing and more pressure on the BP.
Lots of speculation going on here. There is no certainty in that. No one can say they should have, would have, if only they had…..we would’ve won. It’s nonsense and as grown ups we need to abandon this kind of thinking.
Of course, the Dodgers have made mistakes. Don’t let Mark hear this. There have been plenty of FA’s they’ve passed on and many would have made us a better team. TEAM, folks. This is a team game and no one player can claim responsibility for victory. When you have a Gibson type victory in the WS, that is not normal, but it can happen. The team had to get to that spot as a team or else Gibson would never have had that chance to do something special.
This season, someone or someone(s) is going to have an inspired playoff and victory. But it’s the team that needs to give them that chance. Turner has been that force for us for a few years now, but it is a lot to ask one player to do that all the time. We need some inspired playing come the playoffs. Even Las Vegas can’t be certain of the outcome but they are pretty darn good when picking winners. We’ve got a special team, lots of talent, and we need them to rise to the occasion, but will they? If they don’t, it’s on them. They are being given the chance, once again, to do something great. Will they find their way this time? I can’t answer that.
I surely don’t know how things will play out. I do like Will Smith as he seems to fit right in, seems to hit in the clutch and a good sign is when a hitter can go up the middle and to the opposite field. He also appears to be modest and has leadership skills. He is a converted shortstop so behind the plate doesn’t have to be his position forever in MLB.
“Smith has outstanding athleticism for a catcher and it translates into quality defense behind the plate. His average to solid arm strength plays as plus because he has quick footwork. With his soft hands and agility, he receives and frames well, and he also has shown he’s a capable third baseman and passable second baseman.”
” He also has solid speed and can steal an occasional base. ”
I also like Keibert and see no reason why he shouldn’t continue to improve as he progresses. Most guys don’t hit their peak at 21 or are playing at AAA at 21. I think next year will be pivotal for both Smith and Ruiz. For Will to see if the league has caught up to him, maybe we will see that in the next month, and to see how a full MLB season behind the plate goes. He is still very much on the learning curve. For Keibert to see how he continues to grow in a full season at AAA as he too is still on a learning curve. I don’t think it is an accident that his mentor, Travis Barbary, is the manager with the OKC Dodgers.
I also don’t think it is either/or with Smith and Ruiz. Why can’t we have both? Why does one have to be traded at this point while still in a growth spurt? I think the Dodgers have other trade options if a bullpen piece has to be acquired.
It is way too early to speculate on Diego Cartaya who is still 17. He made a good transition to the AZL this year. He already is 6’2″/199- pounds so has size behind the plate. He slashed .296/.353/.437 with the AZL Dodgers in his first experience stateside. He threw out 32% of would be base stealers.
Wow, Mark. Interesting. I think Will Smith is pretty good. He’s really good defensively and hitting with power. He can also play third. Based on everything Friedman has said in the past couple of years, they think highly of Smith. Good chance to continue to be the Dodgers catcher for many years. So what to do with Ruiz? Absolutely nothing. Let him continue to develop and see what happens. Good hitter, no question and the power will no doubt come. The fact that he’s a switch hitter is a plus. I suppose all this is probably centered on the trade deadline and the fact that the Dodgers made Ruiz available because they are loaded with catchers. But I wouldn’t trade Ruiz unless the return offered tremendous value. I get it that some people would trade the entire farm system to win a World Series, but I’m not one of them. The ultimate goal may be to win a World Series, but that has more to do with luck, a team getting hot at the right time or simply being better than everyone else … which doesn’t happen very often (The Red Sox last year, a couple of Yankee teams during their run and one of the Giants teams). Plus most trades really don’t move the needle. What the Dodgers have created is a team dominating the NL West over an extended period, which gives them an opportunity to win a World Series every season. It’s fun to win over the summer. If the Dodgers had won three Titles and we’re sitting where the Giants are right now, would any of us really be happy? A few I suppose. But I enjoy a summer where the Dodgers win 90 to 100 games. It’s fun. I enjoy watching Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Smith and all the players the team refused to trade for a Hamel or Sale or any of the other “difference makers” of the day. It’s certainly okay to make deals, but everybody wants the elite players like Lux, Ruiz or a few years ago, Seager and Bellinger. Friedman has done a good job avoiding trading prospects who have become the core of a very successful team.
This talk of next season, and 59s mention of shed payroll got me wondering – how much are we gonna have to spend?
I guess that Ryu and Hill are gone, which gives us some flexibility.
There might be some old deals (Kemp springs to mind), that might expire?
I don’t think any of our young players need paying yet, although Joc is in his last year and could well be traded.
Freese and Gyorko are also gone.
Turner is gone after 20.
So, I guess we will have some money to spend.
We can presume that Lux takes over 2B, so there is no need there.
The Outfield looks set, as does the Infield, and Catcher, well we’re set there for the next decade.
So, I wonder where the freed up money will go?
Either way, we look set for a while yet, and that is probably AFs biggest achievement to date.
I believe that in this particular baseball era, a franchise needs to add at least a couple of star free agents, and/or obtain stars fro m other clubs by trading top prospects , Certainly not all of the top prospects. Nor is it feasible to have a team full of free agent signings and trade pieces. However, we d not have to worry about that here, because we are on the other end of the spectrum. We pass on every major free agent, and we never make a major trade for some other team’s star player. This is a combination of philosophy and desire for profits over titles.
I mentioned the Yankees the other day. They have a very smart GM, and they are willing to go all-out for the players outside their system which they think can help them. How did the Yankees become so strong in the last couple of years, probably better now than the Dodgers? They brought up the likes of Judge, but they picked up all sorts of players via free agency and trades. Boston won the title last year with players like Sale , Martinez, Price, Kimbrel. Houston made the biggest trade of all, the one which we refused to make, by obtaining Verlander. The reason the Dodgers didn’t go after him is because they didn’t want to pay his contract. This has cost us one title, and very possibly another this year. Imagine if we had Verlander and Houston did not. I think that this was one of the worst non-moves in Dodgers history, even though few talk about it now.
What does this have to do with the topic above? It is all of a piece, to me. Prospects are fun to see go through the system. But rarely does a team win a title with prospects alone. Most prospects are overrated out of wishful thinking. Also, if you won’t pay them after they are no longer cost controlled, they’ll leave, which might well happen with one or two of Bellinger, Seager, Buehler here. It’s not the 1950’s with the reserve clause. An ownership dedicated to winning titles for the fans will go after free agent or trade pieces when they become available, because their strongest competitors certainly will, and because each year matters, and windows for titles close. If we do not win the title for the 31st straight year, it will be because the Yankees or Astros or even Braves, made deals that the Dodgers declined to make, because we are obsessed with staying under the luxury tax threshold, and piling up prospects.
As for Ruiz, I hope he is very good. However, you do not need three catchers in the system, Since I’ve not once seen this Dodgers ownership put together a bundle of prospects to obtain a star player from another team, I don’t know what they are planning to do with all the prospects. Do we remember in a different era, when the Dodgers obtained via trade players like Wally Moon, Ron Perranoski, Claude Osteen, Andy Messersmith, Tommy John, Reggie Smith, Dusty Baker, Burt Hooten? A few of these were not stars when we got them, but some definitely were, or were good players for bad teams; and our front office carefully researched them,and was willing to give up prospects or even starting players to get them. We don’t do that around here now, it’s all about prospects and protecting payroll.
Speaking of Urias, how much longer until we see him again?
Yes, I would’ve traded Seager or Urias or anyone for a chance at Chris Sale or 2015 Cole Hamels or anyone else that could have gotten us a championship. I am more interested in championships than I am in hoarding prospects and yelling “wait till next year when that guy comes up!!”
Sure, our young players are studs, but I’d trade any one of them for a ring. As far as Will Smith, Buster Olney’s article the other day titled something like “Smith is the next Buster Posey” tells me Smith is more than just a backup or a utility guy.
I would’ve sent Ruiz plus any of you on this board to Pitt for Vazquez. It didn’t work out, and let’s hope the bullpen isn’t the main reason we are denied another ring in Oct.
After a while, it’s about titles. Not top farm rankings. Not “who’s the next stud to come up”. Get the title, or become the Buffalo Bills, with Kershaw playing the Scott Norwood role.
Making trades isn’t even a thought, as it’s too late to improve this team now. Andrew chose to stay in house for the stretch run, so to know what the needs are for next year may be bit premature. Anything can happen this off season. Stay tuned……
“The Dodgers have very few needs that cannot be filled in-house this off-season and AF will not make any dope-fiend moves.”
I agree with that but they do have needs. The bullpen. I mentioned a few relievers names yesterday.
As for Ruiz, yesterday during the game when Martin came up a couple times to extend the inning I was thinking I wish we had a backup catcher that could hit. I find myself thinking that a lot with both Martin and Barnes.
I hate the closer label and the saves stat that goes along with it. When someone becomes a “closer” and has success for awhile but then that success becomes less and less they don’t want to give up their spot because of not only ego but chasing the saves record.
Thank you AC,DC, and 2demeter2 for your great post on this site,wish one of you had one for today.
May I add #7, Gavin Lux.