There has been a lot of discussion about the potential of a slow start this year. I and others have pointed out how the “starters” cannot get through 5 innings before the proverbial melt down. Both Hill and Strip went a solid 4 innings, and then came the 5th. Hill is penciled for his final ST outing on Friday (Saturday?), while Strip is scheduled to start Sunday’s game against LAA in Anaheim. Buehler put in 2.2 innings in his sole start on Tuesday (46 pitches). If all goes well with how he feels after his Tuesday outing, Buehler should make his next appearance on Monday in Anaheim. Ryu is scheduled for his final ST appearance on Thursday. Maeda pitched in a minor league game on Wednesday. Yeah, I know it’s innings, but it is not MLB innings. Maeda is next scheduled to pitch on the final ST game on Tuesday.
I recognize that many of us who are concerned about the lack of stretching out the starters may not be arguing from a position of strength on this issue. While not starting out the gate with a hot March/April is a perceived concern, history tells us that the Dodgers catch fire later in the season…and it is a long season. Yes, I understand that games in March/April count as much as those in September. Knowing how the season ebbs and flows with winning and losing streaks, admittedly I guess I would rather be hot in September than March/April.
Last year, the Dodgers were 12-16 in March/April. That was followed by a 14-14 May before they started to warm up with a 17-9 June.
In 2017, the Dodgers were 14-12 in April followed by a 19-9 May and 21-7 June. Of course that was the year the Dodgers were hotter in the beginning of the year than they were in September. Because of their hot start they coasted to a 104-win regular season, even with a 12-17 September. How did that work out?
In 2016, the Dodgers started 12-13 in April, followed by a 16-12 for both May and June.
In 2015, the first year of the AF era, the team broke out to a 13-8 record, followed by a 16-12 record in May. Maybe there was a reason to get off to a fast start with a new FO regime.
In most of those March/April games, management was still trying to piece together a bullpen in those games. This year, the bullpen at least appears to be stable going into the season with a few middle relief questions, but the choices are quality. One of those questions is who replaces Kershaw while he is on the IL (Ferguson?). Another is what to do with Julio Urias. I know it is a popular opinion that Urias belongs on the 25 man, but with Strip given the nod to temporarily replace Kersh in the rotation, there are those who believe that since Urias is being stretched out as a starter, and that he probably could not be relied upon to pitch in back to back days, he will be pushed to OKC where he would start maybe once a week. That is not my personal preference, but it does have some legs. I think he can be better controlled at the MLB level. While his stuff looked good at times, he wasn’t very efficient and the Cubs did hit him pretty hard. He did not get a lot of defense behind him in his third inning.
This year the relief choices are certainly better than those in the past. Some of those illustrious relievers that have been trotted out the last several years include: Sergio Romo, Sergio Santos, Grant Dayton, Josh Ravin, Edward Paredes, Fabio Castillo, Casey Fien, Carlos Frias, Nick Tepesch, Chin-hui Tsao, Mike Bolsinger, Chris Hatcher, Danny Coulombe, David Huff, Zach Neal, Wilmer Font…I know there are others, but those are the ones that come to mind.
Other than in 2018, the Dodgers followed a slow start with a May record of at least 16-12. I think last year was an anomaly due to JT and Seager being out for most of the first part of the season, as well as most of the starting pitchers spending significant time on the DL. It sure seems that Dodger management strategy is to set up a 5-6-7 man rotation that will not be burned out by October. Of course, that may mean that the bullpen may get burned out as has happened, which makes it even more incredulous why the Dodgers did not go after quality relievers last year. Maybe this year is the year they do so. The strategy sure seems to be sound considering that the Dodgers have won the Division in each of AF’s four years, went to the NLCS the last three years, and to the World Series in the last two. Something must be working.
Last Nights Game –
- As I opined last night, Corey Seager seems to have answered the question as to whether he will be ready to open the season. I cannot remember the last time Corey had a problem free ST, and it does not seem to have hurt him.
- Dustin May looks like he is auditioning for a spot on the roster. But we should not get ahead of ourselves. He had 6 AA starts last year, and a couple of those were not very good. Let’s let him succeed at AA and AAA,and maybe he gets a September call. If not, he will definitely get an extended look in the rotation for next season.
- The season is getting closer so AJ Pollock is starting to feel it. He has found a groove the last couple of games, and makes a great heads up play defensively at 2B.
- Watching Austin Barnes with pitches in the dirt is a joy compared to Grandal.
- Edwin Rios needs more seasoning.
- Other than his 1st outing, Joe Kelly has looked pretty good. But I still want more lock down relievers.
Discussion (66)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Miller had the Spring of a lifetime. Worst case scenario is he signs a minor league deal where the path to the bigs is clearer than with the Dodgers. I can’t blame him at all. His best season was good with power, bad OBP. He knows Taylor and Kike are better than him and that there’s plenty of young guys in the system that play the same position. It would have been criminal for the Dodgers to start Verdugo in the minors, even with a mediocre Spring. Time will tell if he’s the one that got away, or just another guy.
Pretty sure management told him they were taking Verdugo and he would have to start in the minors. It could be Pride, or just him wanting to put some money in the bank while he can. I hope he finds a MLB gig, but I’ll probably forget all about him by the time May rolls around.
Back to the not Opening Day lineup today. Roberts wants to make sure he doesn’t use his Opening Day lineup until Opening Day. He wants to make sure his guys are used to getting a new lineup everyday to get the ready for the season.
So much for Miller.
As Mark said long ago, Verdugo’s a lock for a roster spot.
MJ,
Like I’ve been saying, the FO has already made their minds up about the roster long ago. Now the fans just have to live with it and hope those players who have already proved themselves can carry this team with all the slumping that we will see from the same players that have always slumped. The Dodgers run on Power and Pitching, not hitting. That’s the way they are built. That’s the formula that’s been in place. There’s plenty of room for argument and the fans will jump on it first chance they’ll get.
Connor Joe from the Reds to the Giants.
https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/joc-pederson-exits-with-back-spasms
So there you have it-Joc with back spasms
Ryu vs Hill for Opening Day
Miller just opted out of his contract. I’m assuming that means they told him he wasn’t making the opening day roster. He had a great spring. Shouldn’t have a problem hooking on with someone.
Miller actually got two hits today.
Probably because Roberts, unlike every other manager, doesn’t want his best lineup to play together until opening day. Even then he’ll find a way to screw it up. Remember it’s impossible to reuse a line up more than 3 times in a season.
Pederson is out early today. Sick or traded?
I like Verdugo better now than i did before spring training. Maybe that is because I had low expectations for him; and maybe he looks worse to some at this point in spring training because of high expectations.
Rumored to be 5 year extension (2020 thru 2024) at between $110MM and $130MM. That is two different rumor amounts, but both say 5 years in addition to 2019.
Haven’t see the terms yet on the Paul Goldschmidt contract [extension?], but whatever it is he’s worth it. He’s a true impact bat and any team would love to have him.
Palmdale
I think if Verdugo was sent down, and that is a big if, to have Miller make the roster, it is not only about Joc, it will be even more, about Taylor.
I was wondering when fans would pickup on Dustin May’s very real potential. Just keep stocking arms-r-us. Pitchers rule and hitters drool.
Verdugo’s in CF today. Spring stats don’t matter for veterans but for guys trying to make the team it’s probably time to do something. C’mon, Alex, showcase some skills today to show Doc you need to be on the team.
I like Joc too.
There’s always a chance things to be slow at any moment with the Dodgers as when certain players get into a funk the whole team follows suit. But I don’t see any reason or evidence this’ll be the case to follow these ST games. Actually I see evidence towards the opposite and Dodgers will get off to a great start. From where I’m sitting it seems the players I’ve always counted on are ready and on the same page. Pollock fits well, Seager seems healthy, Turner is solid as always, Muncy obviously worked on his defensive skills and his offense should click when he gets more relaxed. Everywhere looks much better than the start of last season. Pitching, both starters and relievers are without any major leaks and adjustments are close at hand if needed. I’d say the ducks are pretty much standing in order. Lets get this party started!
FWIW, Dustin Nosler–of DD & TBLA–is predicting Brad Miller making the roster over Alex Verdugo largely due to versatility, roster status, and Joc’s presence.
When will super sub be used as sub and not starter.
Too many arms, not enough bats. Lot’s of assets to trade. Joc will be Joc, Kike needs to start at 2B at least until he slumps. 1B is a gaping hole right now. Verdugo hasn’t earned a spot, but might be a default choice. If Muncy can’t get going, you might need to send him Beaty and Rios down and bring up whoever gets hot first. Freeze and Belli can share 1B. I would rather have Verdugo in RF, than Muncy at 1B right now. At least Verdugo can make some contact. Miller gets Muncy’s spot until one of those 1Bs can come back. Hell, maybe Belli goes to 1B and Kike plays RF with Miller at 2B. Kike has the arm for it. It’s too bad they have to get “Creative” with the offense right now. Maybe this is our best bet for a lineup…
Pollock – CF
Seager – SS
Turner – 3B
Belli – RF
Kike – LF
Freese – 1B
Miller – 2B
Marnes – C
Sometimes as fans we get all wrapped up in our team’s beloved prospects, and I am more guilty than most. But to make any comparison of Michael Grove to Walker Buehler is just not fair. It is not a fair comparison, and it is not fair for Michael Grove, who could become a very good pitcher…just not as good as Walker Buehler. Right now, Grove has a 60 fastball, 60 slider, and 45 change. That is a legit late inning high leverage reliever, but without at least a league average 3rd pitch, he is not a top of the rotation starting pitcher. #4 or #5…sure. At the same development, Buehler had a 65 fastball, 60 curve, 55 slider, and 50 change. Buehler also had a 55 control vs. 50 control for Grove. Buehler’s 50 change is not good enough to become a useful pitch for anything other than show, but he has three others that he can utilize. Grove does not have that luxury. At this juncture I would be fine with a Caleb Ferguson comparison. I would take that as well.
While working on a blog post that I am researching, I come across a lot of scouting reports. Mostly they are positive and showcase the potential ceiling of the player. I came across the following report on Tony Gonsolin that I was saving. It appears to be less biased than most reports.
“I’m most intrigued by his changeup which scouts have called a split change thanks to its diving action. It’s flashed above average, but he doesn’t have a good feel for the pitch yet. And really, that’s the big red flag against Gonsolin. He’s got good control, especially when he pitches around the knees, but his command wanes. His fastball gets flat when he tries to throw it high. His slider doesn’t break enough from time to time and his split change doesn’t always have the same movement. Because of his success in the upper minors (granted, he was old for the levels, which is important to note), I don’t want to relegate him to the bullpen just yet. This was a two-way player in college who didn’t take on full-time pitching until three years ago. There is more development and maybe a touch more projection on his body. I’d argue that he’s already a success for a ninth rounder. He has a chance to debut in 2019 out of the bullpen as teams will usually do with their rookies who throw gas, but small improvements to his command could go a long way.”
There is a lot to like about Tony Gonsolin, and I do believe he can be a part of the rotation as early as 2020. But if the Dodgers could have made a trade for Corey Kluber without losing Dustin May or Gavin Lux, that would make the Dodgers better in 2019. But then again, unlike most, I would have been fine with trading Julio Urias for 3 1/2 years of Chris Sale. At some point, you have to ask; Why not this year?
Agree about May’s appearance. It really did look like a performance they were studying for further use. If someone goes down for an extended time, May could probably eat up some starts. He’d probably get knocked around a little but the experience would serve him well for next year. He’s definitely close.
Now we see why Friedman was loathe to trade May and Buehler. Gonsolin and Grove are also going to be flying through the system. These are four electric arms and then there’s Santana, Ferguson and several others. The Dodgers don’t need to trade for more pitching. They need to keep developing what they have. This business model is sustainable.
Dustin May is a pure all-around athlete. He can field, run and hit as well. This guy could be our number three next year. How about this:
1. Buehler
2. Urias
3. May
4. Kershaw
5. Maeda
But I digress… I do not see a slow start . Taylor Muncy and Pederson are having slow Springs, but there’s a lot of time between now and Opening Day. Too many arms, too many hungry players. I think there is just as much of a chance that they come out of the gate with guns blazing.
Never underestimate what Corey Seager brings to this lineup. AC was right – he is healthy and when healthy, he may be the best SS in baseball. He will make everyone around him in the lineup better. If a couple of guys are slumping, that’s baseball. Pollock, Turner, Seager, Kike, Barnes and Bellinger can handle it for now. They can help later.
Dustin May has came a Long, Long way since last spring. The potential was always there… now he is fulfilling it. He’s not far off…. Neither is Gonso! You also saw a video of Grove that Bluto posted. He is similar to Buehler… maybe a couple of ticks slower, but he can be a middle-of-the-rotation guy too.
Welcome back, Corey!! Great to see that ball fly over the wall. He looks good and it’s gonna help us tremendously. Pollock, Turner, Corey, Belli, Kike, and Barnes, all look good enough to begin the season. The next games that end ST should season any of the positional players that are not fully conditioned as of yet, including Corey if they play him.
My concerns center on Joc, Muncy, Taylor, and Verdugo who is on the cusp. None of these player have impressed at all except the HR’s of Joc. But Joc can’t hit consistently, and like all the others, none of them are hitting LHP. You can’t send these guys into major league games not being able hit a LHP. We will just have a repeat of the last 2-3 seasons. We might hope the other starters will tow the line, but it usually doesn’t work that way. Rallys are killed with SO’s and DP’s. This is an issue that the FO needs to work out. Verdugo no longer looks like the answer to me for the OF. Muncy looks like crap at the plate. His regression is severe. Taylor has not progressed an inch. He’s already near the top of the ST So list of all player, fanning 6x more than getting a BB. This is serious. Any great ideas out there? I sure don’t have any as to what to do in this situation.
I was hoping that Rios could step up because Muncy is doing so poorly in the hitting dept. But I think Rios is needs more time, much more time. The only possible prospects for the roster have been Miller and Castro. Castro is very good at SS, not sure about LF. Miller is an all around guy. Is he a better choice than Joc for an every day LFielder?
Pitching looks great, just a little more conditioning and we’ll be flying. Dustin May is the greatest surprise to me. I finally got to watch him last night. Beside his pitching prowess, my favorite thing about him is how he kicks his long, elegant leg out before the pitch is thrown. Has anyone noticed this ballet act? Pure aesthetics. He probably doesn’t even notice! It’s a thing of beauty. He’s got perhaps the smoothest delivery of anyone I can think of. Effortless.
Kelly is surprisingly good.