Three weeks before pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report, and the free agent market is still in slow motion. MLBTR listed 50 top free agents. Of those 50, 25 remain unsigned, including eight of the top ten. Of those eight, only Darvish is rumored close to signing. What’s to become of the other seven; JDM, Hosmer, Arrieta, Moustakas, Cain, Lynn, & Holland? There are no fresh rumors. Four of the seven are Boras clients.
Another factor is that seven of the nine players with qualifying contracts remain unsigned; Hosmer, Arrieta, Moustakas, Cain, Lynn, Holland, and Cobb. I am sure that MLB Players Association is taking notice of this.
THAT WAS WHAT I STARTED TO WRITE BEFORE the Brewers went all San Diego/Arizona on MLB, traded for Yelich and signed Lorenzo Cain. Are they going to go after Darvish or Arrieta to complete their resurrection? Are they going to be trading for Danny Salazar or Chris Archer?
Now that one of the last of the big trade candidates has been moved, and a big free agent has finally signed, I think we will start to see some more activity. Cain’s 5 years at $80M is the biggest 2017/18 FA contract thus far. There are still some trades that can and will be made. I expect the Giants to make a run at Broxton or Phillips of the Brewers. I expect the Nationals to make a run at Realmuto. The Yankees may have some interest in Josh Harrison. But the bulk of activity will be the free agents. Which one will be the first to sign; Darvish, Hosmer, JDM?
Of the 24 unsigned, there are 8 starting pitchers, 5 OF, 3 1B, 2 3B, 2 C, 2 RP, 1 2B, and 1 utility. There are some interesting names that remain unsigned with very limited interested teams. With Jose Reyes signing with the Mets, I think the market for Neil Walker is drying up. The Yankees are still checking in on Walker, but I think the Yankees stay with Miguel Andujar to start the season, and see where that goes. What about the two 3B, Moustakas and Frazier? The Yankees may have some interest, but I think they still want to go with Gleybar Torres to start. They have enough offense to handle two unknowns, at least in the beginning of the year. They may still be in on Darvish. Angels signed Zack Cozart early to fill their need at 3B. The Padres still have a trade chip in Chase Headley. The Braves will probably not sign a long term deal with a 3B. They will stay with Johan Camargo or Rio Ruiz for now.
The Cubs will end up with Darvish, Arrieta, or Cobb. I still think Boston is in on JDM, but at no more than $125M. Hosmer is down to two teams, Padres and Royals. Perhaps the Pads realized that they do not need to spend $150M plus on a 1B while they are still a non-contending team and probably will not begin to blossom until 2020. Logan Morrison would be a better choice for them. I think Morrison ends up wherever Hosmer does not. Maybe the Rays sign Duda to replace Morrison. But then again, they have enough LH bats on their roster. Maybe the White Sox sign Duda to give the ChiSox more options to move Abreu.
Now that the Giants are out of the free agency market, where does CarGo, Carlos Gomez, Jarrod Dyson, or John Jay end up? Their free agent market is not what they thought it would be. Baltimore is still looking for a LH hitting OF, and any of CarGo, Dyson, or Jay has to be on their radar, but not at what they thought they were going to get. If I were a Rockies fan, I would want to re-sign CarGo.
If the Nats do not want to trade Robles or Soto, I would expect them to look at Jonathan Lucroy or Alex Avila for their catcher. Whichever one does not sign, it is going to be a tough tough market.
The only team I have heard that has any real interest in Lance Lynn at his requested price is Seattle. With a luxury tax salary level at $170M, I do not see them really going for a pitcher with an AAV north of $15M. But they are running out of time, and they may want to take the Brewers and Giants approach about going all in this year. Dipoto is a wild card, so who knows what they are going to do. They let Dyson go FA, and then bring in a 2B with a $10M AAV to play CF. Sign Dyson or Jay, and have enough for any of the free agent pitchers, and still be in a position to make adjustments at the trade deadline.
Eduardo Nunez is running out of viable options. Andrew Cashner, Jason Vargas, and Chris Tillman are probably just hoping for a one year deal to prove themselves.
I do not see the Dodgers doing anything other than signing free agent relievers to minor league contracts with a ST invite, like Neftali Perez. Xavier Cedeno just signed a minor league contract with the ChiSox. I think he has a good chance at sticking.
I do not see them going after Darvish unless they can get him for a $16M – $18M AAV. But let me play devil’s advocate with myself. The Dodgers traded for Darvish and Hill at the deadline for the playoffs. They do not need Darvish to get to the playoffs. But if not Darvish now, who might be available at the trade deadline. FAZ likes high level rentals, so who might be available from the 2018 free agent list that is not on a contender. The top potential free agent pitchers might be Carlos Carrasco, Gio Gonzalez, Dallas Keuchel, Drew Pomeranz, or Garrett Richards. All of those pitchers will be on contenders, and the teams are very unlikely to trade them. The next level would include, Matt Harvey, Matt Moore, Charlie Morton, Cole Hamels, and Ervin Santana. Santana will be on a contender, as will Morton. Harvey is probably not the best clubhouse presence, and Hamels is way too expensive. There is not much chance of his 2019 option vesting (he would have to pitch 252 innings), but he would have a $6M buyout which the Rangers would have to pay plus some of 2018. So there really is not a pitcher that appears to whet the interest of the Dodgers, even at the deadline. So maybe they hedge their bets on Maeda, Ryu, Buehler, and Urias, with a one year low guarantee but incentivized contract for Chris Tillman, and hope that they can re-invent him.
No. Even being a devil’s advocate does not convince me. The Dodgers will not make a big effort to re-sign Darvish and will instead stand pat. Many on here are high on Ryu, and if he is good, he becomes the #4 in the playoffs with Maeda going to the pen. One or both of Buehler and Urias should give the Dodgers a boost at the trade deadline.
I expect continuing development and adjustments for Seager and Bellinger, who are destined to become super-stars, and along with Kershaw the face of the Dodgers.
I expect JT, CT3, and Puig to continue to play at a high level. I also expect Puig to continue to mature and be a community leader. I also think he is a prime candidate for an extension to take him out of his final arbitration year and 2-3 free agent years.
I expect Forsythe to play over his head for his walk year. I expect Barnes/Grandal to be the best catching duo in MLB.
I expect Toles to break out and be the 2018 version of CT3.
I expect the Dodgers will find their new 8th inning man. I am hoping it is Brock Stewart, but he has to want to be a high leverage reliever first.
I expect the Dodgers will have 9 starters in 2018. Kershaw, Hill, Wood, Maeda, Ryu, Stewart, Stripling, Buehler, and Urias. Font and Koehler outside shots.
I expect Dennis Santana to come up in September and prove what a valuable arm he really has, but as a reliever. He may never leave the 25 man after he is called up.
I expect the Dodgers to win the 2018 World Series Championship.
One Final Point to Cover:
Bums asked why I never included Puig’s slash line against LHP when pointing out Joc’s. That was a fair observation and request. Agreed, Puig did not hit well against LHP in 2017, but that was his only off year against LHP. Career slash lines are as follows:
Puig’s Career Splits:
RHP .289/.357/.491/.848
LHP .260/.358/.431/.789
Career .281/.357/.475/.833
Joc’s Career Splits:
RHP .231/.360/.463/.823
LHP .184/.278/.321/.599
Career .222/.345/.435/.780
Puig’s previous lowest slash line against LHP was in 2014: .258/.377/.359/.736
Discussion (38)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Read the Times this morning, they mentioned the Team Dad is still on the radar for one more year. I would love to see Utley do a last roundup this year, especially if Kemp is around. Chase will help with the clubhouse leadership. I’ve already read two articles about how Kemp and Puig didn’t mesh. Having someone like Dad around will help squash any uprisings.
I think it was a dumb thing to say, but I also see a strike or lockout as inevitable.
So – now Kenley Jansen is advocating a player strike/
https://www.truebluela.com/2018/1/28/16942164/kenley-jansen-strike-talk-players-union-mlb-collective-bargaining-agreement-collusion-offseason
Aren’t all baseball fans fed up with the prospect of a strike? And what about it being Jansen making the comment?
AC and NorCal are correct
I’m on-board the Kemp train!
#Bisonmyfriend
Two years ago I got on a DC Metro after a Dodger vs. Nationals game with a Dodger FO guy who was with his family and who I will not name. This was right around the trade deadline and I was asking him if the team was up to anything and he cryptically said they were.
He was quite open with me as I asked him about several of the players and when I asked him if Adrian was a clubhouse leader he rolled his eyes and said “hardly.” I was surprised by how open he was with this causal Dodger fan, but I gotta believe Adrian is a “me first” guy which was reinforced by the Dodgers decision to keep him away from the team during the playoffs.
There has to be a reason why Agon was not in the clubhouse during all of the playoffs.
–
I hope some of you guys are right about Kemp. To believe he will hit 40+ home runs is unbelievable. I coached to many years to believe his attitude has changed. Reports coming out of San Diego and Atlanta are the same. Bad attitude. He is what he is.
–
Joc has a good attitude and is fun loving. He is young enough where he could change. However, he has had three years to make adjustments and has not done so. Maybe, just maybe, if he would listen to Turner Ward, as Puig did, then I will have hope for him. All I have seen for three years is a HR or a SO. Not my kinda player.
–
To say Toles and Verdugo may upset the chemistry in the clubhouse is a stretch. I have not heard anything bad about Toles. Verdugo did have a problem last year, but the veterans made sure he knew what was expected. That is what good leaders do.
At this point the Dodgers have to see what Kemp has to offer and what kind of team mate he will be. Doc and the FO have a great way of creating a “team first” culture and will monitor the club chemistry constantly. I believe that’s why Adrian Gonzalez was kept away from the team during the WS and if Kemp is a disruption to the team’s chemistry he will DFA’d if we find no takers in a trade deal.
Lets hope Kemp is indeed in great shape (physically and mentally), plays a team first game and hits the crap out of the ball. If he can be an unselfish player he just might be a great addition and a complimentary piece as a RH LF, occasional starter in a platoon situation and a great PH piece in a clutch situation. Can’t wait for ST to start and get this long winter baseball drought over.
It appears to me that Jansen has become quite the diplomat in making things right between his fellow team mates and us fans when we voice the negative. Good for him. I’ve always liked Jansen from the beginning. I can’t figure why it took so long for several to appreciate the skills he displays. When I stated both he and Turner were ‘elite’ some disagreed. I do have some concerns with Turner’s health for reasons I’m not able to point out other than his knees but you can bet I’m cheering for our red headed stepchild. I’m of mind Matt Kemp’s batting will give us 40+ HRs and crow we be on the menu. Crow can be mighty tasty when served with victory.
More on Kemp by Zaidi:
–
Zaidi, however, said the club knew in making the trade that keeping Kemp was a possibility.
–
“We’re not worried about that,” said Zaidi. “He’s in great shape. He’s been in L.A., he’s reconnected with some of his old teammates. We haven’t made it a secret that the trade was primarily financially motivated. But a motivated Matt Kemp can help a lot of teams in baseball, including us. It’s our responsibility to keep our options open, to let it play out. And if he can help us on the field, that’s what everybody wants.”
–
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts was reminded that Kemp and Puig had a difficult relationship.
–
“That was three years ago,” said Roberts, who wasn’t the manager at the time. “Both guys want to win. I don’t see that as a problem. I talked to Matt about being open-minded. It’s a different clubhouse with a lot of good players, and he just assured me that he wants to be on a winner and that coming back to L.A. was a dream and he’s thrilled.
–
“He worked out here a couple weeks ago and really showed guys he is in good shape, and they got together and talked and he liked what’s going on. I’m excited to have him on the roster.”
–
Closer Kenley Jansen said he has no concerns with a Kemp return.
–
“I’ve been in contact with Matt. I understand what the Dodgers tried to do, to reset under the luxury tax,” Jansen said. “Just to have Matt back, if he’s going to stay here, we’re all excited. To have Matt back is awesome. I’m looking forward to seeing him in Spring Training. I believe he can help us tremendously. He worked out with us. He lost a lot of weight. We all saw what Matt did. He can carry an organization. If he’s back, he can help us win.”
Farhan Zaidi just said this about Matt Kemp:
–
“He’s going to be one of our guys in camp, and we have a little open competition in left field and I think he’ll be part of that — as of now.”
–
Last I heard, Jon Heyman was a Fish Hack and Farhan Zaidi was the Dodgers’s GM. I’ll ride with him until he says different!
Per Jon Heyman and quoted in MLB Trade Rumors:
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
It has become even more obvious that the Dodgers have no intention of suiting up Matt Kemp this year and will instead keep trying to find a trade partner with an overpaid player to peddle. Kemp wasn’t at recent Dodgers get-togethers, making it crystal clear. Someone close to the situation suggested the Dodgers have targeted “three or four” potential landing spots, though it isn’t immediately known what they are. One rival said their best hope may be to include some very good prospects along with Kemp. One rumor had Texas as a potential spot, but someone close to their situation responded “probably not.” Wherever he does land, we are looking forward to another nice piece in the Players Tribune about how he’s learned his lesson and will be a better teammate. This time, he might mean it, though. Word is, he’s gotten into shape. But no one seems to think he can play the outfield anymore, and there were deep clubhouse questions in Atlanta.
Chase Utley is working out with Dodgers players, reports Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. Folks can see another year for Utley.
Can’t see a Yu Darvish reunion.
I agree with you on Turner, Taylor, and Puig.
I don’t know if Forsythe will have a breakout year as Mark is thinking, or plays over his head as you suggest, but if he can hit over 250 and cut down on his strikeouts along with his very good defense I think that will be an improvement.
If Toles is 100% recovered I think he will have a good year, if not Verdugo should be ready to move in or he could win the position in spring training, either way, I think left field will be much improved over last year. I’m not counting on Pederson for anything.
I’m looking for Barnes to improve on last year and be a big asset this year.
If Wood proves that last year was not a fluke, and Kershaw( in his opt-out year) stays healthy all year( he could have his best season) along with some improvements from Ryu and Maeda the rotation could be better than last year. Hill is my worry for this year but if he falters Buehier will be waiting.
I think the bullpen will be stronger than last year with some very good arms playing for OKC just waiting for their chance.
Seager and Bellinger, let’s watch and enjoy.
The exhibition season begins 4 weeks from yesterday. I haven’t gotten over game 7 yet, but hopefully I will in the next 27 days!
I”m sure the smart folks have already thought about “what if we give 2b to CT3, and give it to him for the next 4-5 years”, instead of shuffling him between 2b and cf. Perhaps the decision would be easier if Verdugo, Joc, and Toles all looked really good out there. Kemp would be a nice 3-4 day a week player as well, if healthy.
I hope left field is won by Toles or Verdugo. Nothing like competition. The Kemp train has left the station a long time ago. People with bad attitudes do not change. Pederson should of made these changes a long time ago. As far as I am concerned his train has left the station. Kemp and Pederson are just going to clog up the opportunities for Toles and Verdugo to get playing time in ST. They had their opportunities and now it is time to move on. Pederson and Kemp may have good years. Let them have it with some other team. Both had many opportunities to do the right thing and did not.
Here’s a few things I have been told by people who have first-hand knowledge of the situations.
–
1. That they have seen Toles and Kemp working out and running and that both look to be in incredible shape.
2. Alex Verdugo has been seen in AZ and is cut like nobody’s business.
3. That Joc Pederson has been working with a nutritionist and taking his off-season seriously.
–
These guys all know that LF is up for grabs and it will be a heated competition. Someone will win, someone will lose and someone may get traded.
AC, great write up. My brain agrees, my heart has a few differences.
.
Here are Puig’s numbers against lefties in 2017
.183 .317 .275 .592
.
Here are Joc’s numbers against lefties in 2017
.204 .291 .306 .597
.
Puig was so bad against lefties last year that Joc was even better.