Wednesday the Dodgers announced “layoffs across the organization.” Right about now, I do not know who has been laid off. I would be surprised if this included anyone in player development and the baseball ops side of things… but you never know. Allegedly, the Dodgers have lost over $100 Million in 2020. If you are on the side of labor, you might say that is way overinflated and if you are on the side of ownership you might say that is just the tip of the iceberg.
I have no clue, but unless you have ever ran you own company, you may not either. I am going to tell you a real life story that may shed some relevance on the current situation.
Here’s the Story
As you may or may not know, my wife and I own US Water Systems. In 2014, one of our competitors tried to buy us. I ignored them until the 4th offer (they call it a Letter of Intent or LOI) , which I could not turn down. I demanded they put up $150,000 cash because were were baring our soul and finances. In 2014, we were about 1/3 the size we are now, but the deal seemed great… at the time.
LONG STORY SHORT: Their intent was to steal all of our intellectual property and eliminate us as a competitor. Because we were going to consolidate our accounting and purchasing departments, I found jobs for our CFO (he’s now the Director of Finance at Indiana University) and our Controller (I got her a job with a friend who runs a non-profit… and she is still there).
We also lost our Operations Manager as he wanted no part of the merger. Well, at the eleventh hour, they tried to change the terms and I told them politely to get screwed. I walked away and we were really in bad financial shape. We lost our Controller, CFO and VP of Operations who were system administrators of new software we had just installed, and it was a disaster! My tax return shows that we lost $496,000.00 that year. However, I was forced to borrow $800,000.00, and since we were in bad financial shape, we had to pay “loan shark interest.” In 18 months we paid back $1.400,000.00!
I am not sure how we did it… but we did! The point is: my tax return said I lost $496,00.00… but I had to play $1,400,000.00 back. Don’t feel sorry for me, It all worked out. We now have no debt and I can look back and laugh at it now. I also kept the $150,000.00. They told me I had to give it back and I replied: “Let’s have a Judge decide!” I ended up hiring two of their key employees and life is good. So, when Stan Kasten says the Dodgers lost more than $100,000,000.00, it may or may not be what their tax return says, but it’s lot.
So, in light of the pandemic and the organizational layoffs, it will not be business as usual this winter. To go out and spend lavishly on free agents would be a slap in the face to the laid off employees.
If I had to bet, I would say that the lineup we saw last year will be pretty much the same in 2021. It’s fun to think about trades and signing free agents, but its mostly fiction. Lindor isn’t coming to LA. DJLM is too old, too expensive and costs prospects… or at least one. Chris Bryant has been on a downward spiral. Josh Hader could be damaged goods and is way too expensive.
All of the Dodger’s Free Agents could be back, none of the Free Agents could be back, or some of the Free Agents could be back. Who really knows? McGee, Baez, Wood, Turner, Kike, and Pederson may find a very lukewarm market. I would think Treinen gets some offers, but you never know. Some may even come back on one-year deals.
I would not be surprised is Justin Turner comes back on a one-year deal that is is the range of $6 million. Hernandez, Pederson and Wood will not get what they received in 2020. The union is going to cry “collusion” but most teams understand that it will be around June before they put butts in seats.
As I write this, Pfizer is seeking emergency authorization to distribute their vaccine ASAP. Once the company files, it would be up to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to decide whether the two-shot vaccine works safely enough to roll out to millions of people. I believe that since it is based upon Messenger RNA technology and the likelihood of side effects is very low that it will be approved in under two weeks! I believe that this is a National Emergency and damage done by lockdowns could exceed the death toll of the disease.
Today the Wall Street Journal reported:
“Given the urgency, the FDA is expected to move quickly. The timing of the filing is in line with industry and government officials’ projections for authorization and distribution to begin next month. Pfizer said the filing could allow for distribution to begin by the middle to end of December.
A green light would cap the fastest vaccine development program ever in the West, going from laboratory to authorization in less than a year. Pfizer, which partnered with Germany’s BioNTech in March, has so far spent about $2 billion on the effort.
Then companies, health authorities and physicians would face more daunting tasks: making enough shots to meet demand, distributing them and convincing people to take them.
Health authorities say vaccines, and the protection they provide if enough people receive injections, will be key to allowing people to return to schools, workplaces and other establishments.“
The vaccines are critical to resuming a normal life, which includes baseball. I would not be surprised if Spring Training were pushed back to the middle to end of April… but I do believe that we will see baseball with fans in the seats THIS season. In the meantime, this baseball labor situation is going to get real UGLY!
Discussion (102)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Why not trade Bellinger & a couple of prospect pitchers to the Angels for Trout? Angels need monetary relief. Dodgers get best player in baseball under contract for many years.
Wow! This is getting wild! Pretty soon the only remaining Dodger in next years lineup will be Betts!
Fantasy is the key word there JR.
The only major star the Yankees would get is Seager and he only has one year left on his contract.
Even though your deal has less than zero chance of happening I do love that lineup. Might very well qualify as the best lineup of all time.
Do the Dodgers really only want to get a draft pick for Seager if he walks next year? Offer him the MAX you feel comfortable with. Have a pandemic clause in it if need be. If he’s not willing to sign (what? 10 year 250-300m) then like Cleveland and Lindor, I’m going to try and trade him this winter.
Arm chair Fantasy GM back at you. Don’t get me wrong. I still want to trade for Snell but today I’m thinking Seager, Ruiz, Pollock and Santana to the Yankees for Aaron Judge and GleyberTorres. Then trade Gavin Lux and minor prospect for Lindor. Play Rios at 3rd or sign JT for 2 years if $ are reasonable.
RF. Betts
SS Lindor
LF. Judge
CF. Bellinger
2B. Torres
1B. Muncy
C. Smith
3B. Turner\Rios
Would still rather trade for Snell.
Friedman knows that Boras can’t be played but it can’t hurt for Friedman to leak that he has heard the rumors surrounding Arenado to fan the rumor mill. Friedman has already stated he wants a big righty bat and the opening is at 3rd base.
Turner knows of the rumor as well as Boras and Seager. If Boras believes now would be a good time extend Seager maybe the Arenado rumor will nudge the negotiations forward.
How do you build a $276,000,000 team?
5 for Rotation: ………………………………………$90M
4 for Super position players : ………….$112M
4 for not so Super position players …..$32M
2 for closer and setup ………………………….$32M
5 for relievers …………………………………………..$6M
6 for young position players ………………….$4M
Benefits included
Wow, Hunter Renfroe was DFA’d today by the Rays. That is a surprise. Not much of a hitter for average, but awesome power and a great arm in RF. 2 former Dodger farm hands added to rosters to protect them from the draft, Connor Wong with the Sox and Yusinel Diaz in Baltimore…..he was part of the Machado trade.
Oops, that’s a re-do…
Looking For A Match In A Nolan Arenado Trade
I read this in a chat about a possible Arenado trade, and I liked it, it seems very true, I had not thought about it:
”Except if he is traded somewhere else, then his Coors stats can be added to his road stats. That would push the numbers up significantly. Which is exactly what the stat does for every player that doesn’t play at Coors.”
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/nolan-arenado-trade-rumors-rockies.html#comments
Why in earth would Seager want to leave L.A.??? We love him here…
Scott B. too??? A lil 1 hour limo ride to the stadium… Couple of beers and checking on Mr. Seager, JT, Joc and others(?)
With me, getting to know and see these Dodger kids from many trips to Rancho C. kills me to hear their names rumored daily… Oh well, that sounds like a personal problem… My runs to Philipes for a beef dip and taking the bus up to Blue Heaven for a game has slowly diminished over the years becuz of cost… I got the dough, but as you know these annual player signings cost me the fan a lot… OK no more whining…
Are the Blue on this S. Korean kid’s list of tryouts yet???
Just when you think you know stuff about the Blue the postings on LADT take you to school… I copy them all for reading in between my PT adventures…
I finally felt a lil chink in the armor from Covid this week… I’m going to forgoe my semi annual trip to Oregon and Washington for Thanksgiving and it hurts… Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday… Christmas with all it’s advertising in full swing has lost its appeal to me… Thanksgiving, a great meal with family and friends, friendly chatter with no politics and no pressure on gift giving, some good football… Last but not least, that day after Turkey sandwich on wheat, lil mayo, salt n pepper, turkey, dressing, cranberry and a large bib which watching some great college football….
That being said, Happy Thanksgiving to all the LADT folks and be safe….
Boras may be a pain to deal with but he did get an extension done with Strasburg (at his request). So if Seager really wants to stay an extension is possible. Perhaps that’s what AF means by being pigs.
Dodgers Add 4 To 40-Man Roster
The Dodgers have added three right-handers – Gerardo Carrillo, Andre Jackson and Edwin Uceta – as well as outfielder Zach Reks to their 40-man roster J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets.
Going by MLB.com’s rankings of the Dodgers’ farm system, Jackson is the lone prospect here who sits in the franchise’s top 30. The former 12th-round pick (2017) comes in at No. 27, though he did thrive between Single-A and High-A ball in his most recent minor league action in 2019. Jackson ended the year with a 3.06 ERA and 11.1 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9 in 114 2/3 innings.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/dodgers-add-4-to-40-man-roster.html#comments
I’ve been away from baseball talk since the World Series ended. I hope everybody is doing good and celebrating the Dodgers as World Series champs.
I’ve got a question, does anybody know if the three batter minimum rule is sticking around for 2021?
If that rule is sticking around Friedman needs to clean up or clean house the bullpen.
I’ve got four free agent relievers that I’m looking at that I hope Friedman looks at to try to acquire.
Roberto Osuna
Sean Doolittle
Ken Giles
Joakim Soria I’m not totally sold on Joakim Soria because of his age of 36 but he’s got great stats against both sides of the plate.
And then sign Justin Turner. I know he’s up there in age but he’s still good.
The Dodgers could also use someone that can play 2B and or LF. In case Gavin Lux doesn’t work out. With the DH the Dodgers have the luxury of acquiring somebody and not block Gavin Lux. That is if the DH is sticking around for 2021.
What do I know? I wanted the Dodgers to sign Harper, Machado, Cole and just about everyone else. I never try to make assumptions on what the Dodgers will spend. But, what I do know are some facts…
AF wants a RH bat preferably a third baseman.
The Collective Bargaining Agreement runs out after this coming season.
Our Payroll last year was in between 210-220M prorated for the shortened season.
Our Payroll max under this ownership was around 278M
We have the best, or close to the best TV revenue.
This tells me that you can’t assume that AF is operating under the assumption that payroll limits will be the same as they are now. Therefore, you can’t make an assumption that payroll can’t increase significantly.
AF wants to be a pig and add talent to this team – these are his own words.
Arrenado and Bryant are better than JT. Both would improve the team. No Mark, Nolan would not bat 7th on this team and DJLM broke the can’t hit away from Coors theory.
If Nolan were on the team today and I had to choose two position players to offer contracts to out of Belli, Seager and Nolan, one would be Nolan. Because we have too may left handed bats!
If I had to make a choice of having to let one of Kershaw, Belli, Seager go when their contract is up, it would be Kershaw. He’s the oldest and hasn’t cracked 180 innings in 5 years!
Maybe there’s room to have 6 $30 Mil players on the same team by the time Bueller is a free agent. You won’t know until the next CBA is defined.
Arenado is not going to be a Dodger. I agree with Jeff. Give the money to Seager, Beuhler, Bellinger and Urias. Of those 4, Bellinger is the one I could see leaving. He needs to make adjustments next year, and I am not sure he will. He could be such a great player if he would choke up on the bat like Seager.
Still don’t see Arenado happening even though Jim Bowden says it’s serious and could happen before Christmas. Lot of smoke, rumors picking up steam, but is still feels like a reach. Maybe the Rockies have financial issues, need to deal him or maybe they just want to move in a different direction and need to move a player who no longer wants to be in Denver. We’ll see. Perhaps the Dodgers want a longer term fix at third than Turner offers. Maybe the Dodgers see an opportunity and intend to exploit it. No surprise there. LA certainly has some desirable trade pieces. Really believe the Dodgers will extend Corey Seager.
Ok, thanks AC. Glad to hear they are still with us and hope it works out for the players to drop down a level. Do you think all the players will stay with the team if they have a choice? Won’t it be a drop in competition for them?
Just read that the Quakes might be a low A Minor League team not a high A Minor league team next year. What does this mean? Will they still be part of the Dodgers? Lots of good players on the team. Some of them advanced to the big team this year. Do you have any info on this, AC?Thanks.
This could be nothing more than Andrew Friedman doing his due diligence on a potential exploitable opportunity. The Rockies are in a bad spot with Nolan Arenado. He is unhappy in Colorado and their options are either a) retain him and risk losing him after the 2021 season if he decides to opt out, b) invest an additional $164M on an unhappy player over an additional five seasons if he does not to opt out, or c) trade him in order to gain some much needed salary relief, while bolstering their minor league system in the process. This has the potential of becoming a public relations debacle for the Rockies, but they have no one to blame but themselves.
Dodger brass obviously understands the situation and is perhaps merely looking to find ways to buy low on one of the top right handed hitters in the league.
As it has been previously stated, the Dodgers don’t necessarily need Arenado, but the Rockies definitely need the Dodgers to be engaged if they intend to trade Arenado. Especially, considering Arenado’s no trade clause and the fact that not too many teams have the financial resources and prospect capital to potentially acquire an expensive player like Nolan Arenado.
The Dodgers have 32 currently on the 40 man roster. If they are to protect any of the Rule 5 eligible, they need to protect them this afternoon. The team has 44 players who are Rule 5 eligible, including 25 1st year eligible. Most of the names, are not recognizable by most fans. Of the group, I believe that Omar Estevez will absolutely be protected. I also believe that Brett de Geus will be protected. The Dodgers have room and Andre Jackson and Gerardo Carrillo who are still considered starting pitchers, and SP are protected far more readily than relievers. Outside of de Geus, I do not believe any other reliever will be protected, including Marshall Kasowski. Kasowski is a quality pitcher, but needs another pitch to stick with a MLB team a full season. If he does, good for him. The Dodgers have more than plenty of MiLB relievers to pull from.
I do not think that Zach Reks or Cody Thomas will be protected. Reks is 27, not the age the majority of teams will draft. Cody Thomas? He was left unprotected last year, and because there was no MiLB, I doubt that any team can feel comfortable with a 26.1 year old OF who has not played above AA, and even that was not a very productive year (.236/.308/.443/.751). How many teams are going to draft a corner OF AA player with a .751 OPS who will be 26 ½ when the season starts.
I re-read the Jon Paul Morosi piece on the Dodgers interest in Nolan Arenado (three times now), and it makes less sense each time I read it. I do not necessarily disagree with his statement, “But it’s overly simplistic to characterize this as a choice between Arenado and Turner or Bryant. From the Dodgers’ perspective, the better comparison is between Arenado and Corey Seager.” I think that is the comparison that needs to be made. Do the Dodgers want Nolan Arenado more than Corey Seager? They cannot afford both next year and still have resources for Belli, Urias, and Buehler. I know there are those that believe that the Dodgers have a bottomless budget and can afford any player they want. $300MM budget? So what? After all WE FANS deserve it.
Morosi then asks: “So can the Dodgers fit Arenado into Andrew Friedman’s future payroll projection? Yes.” He then notes that $70MM comes off the books without Kershaw, KJ, Seager, and CT3. Arenado takes up half of that. That means $35MM for Kershaw, Seager, and replacements for KJ and CT3. Again for those that want a $300MM budget that should not pose a problem. But for realists, IT AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN!!!.
Morosi brings up Scott Boras and the difficulty in getting an extension. How does he know how hard either party has worked to get it done? Forget about how difficult it is to work with Scott Boras. I dismiss the concept they cannot work with Boras. He is an a**, but his clients will sign, and undoubtedly for above market prices. There is a price that both parties can agree on, and it will of course will be high (and perhaps unreasonable). If they cannot work with Boras on Seager then go ahead and trade Belli and Urias while they have great value and not before they become rentals. The trade will yield more than whatever they get from a draft pick.
If Boras is that hard to work with, then trade Seager to Cleveland for Lindor and agree to pay whatever Seager arbitration salary is, and another Cleveland prospect(s) for the money. Lindor, without Boras, should be easier to negotiate with. Of course that will go over so well with the fan base.
ALL RUBBISH!!! – Forget Arenado! Sign JT, put Lux at 2B, and if you have to wait until Seager becomes a FA to re-sign him, so be it. Then negotiate with Lindor and Story along with Seager. So if it is fear of losing Seager because of Boras, as a means for justifying Arenado, I dismiss it totally. Regardless if Seager signs or does not sign, the Dodgers are going to spend large dollars on a SS.
I like the thought of Arenado playing third for the Dodgers but I would prefer Seager at third and Lindor at short for the next 8 years.
Why in earth would Seager want to leave L.A.??? We love him here…
Scott B. too??? A lil 1 hour limo ride to the stadium… Couple of beers and checking on Mr. Seager, JT, Joc and others(?)
With me, getting to know and see these Dodger kids from many trips to Rancho C. kills me to hear their names rumored daily… Oh well, that sounds like a personal problem and big business… My runs to Philipes for a beef dip and taking the bus up to Blue Heaven for a game has slowly diminished over the years becuz of cost… I got the dough, but as you know these annual player signings cost me the fan a lot… OK no more whining…
Are the Blue on this S. Korean kid’s list of tryouts yet???
Just when you think you know stuff about the Blue the postings on LADT take you to school… I copy them all for reading in between my PT adventures…
I finally felt a lil chink in the armor from Covid this week… I’m going to forgoe my semi annual trip to Oregon and Washington for Thanksgiving to see the kids and it hurts… Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday… Christmas with all it’s advertising in full swing has lost its appeal to me… Thanksgiving, a great meal with family and friends, friendly chatter with no politics and no pressure on gift giving, some good football… Last but not least, that day after turkey sandwich on wheat, lil mayo, salt n pepper, turkey, dressing, cranberry and a large bib which watching some great college football….
That being said, Happy Thanksgiving to all the LADT folks and be safe….
Quote from Andrew Friedman…
I think what’s awesome was going through this and winning it all but, days after, just the text threads with coaches and various front office, the mindset was “let’s be pigs”, let’s do everything we can to go out next year and do it again. And so we switched gears pretty quickly and hopefully we’ll get a chance to really blow off some steam and celebrate the 2020 season. But right now, we’re kinda all focused towards doing all we can to put the best team together for 2021.
These truths I hold to be self-evident:
1. All Ballparks are not created equal and Coors was created for Nolan, however if he comes to LA, Arenado will be a Gold Glove 3B who will hit 7th or 8th.
2. Nolan will not opt out of a $199 Million Dollar Deal.
3. I would not give up more than Ruiz and Thomas for him.
4. He will never be a Dodger – Friedman is just going to make sure whoever gets him (if he is traded) has to pay through the nose.
The Arenado fascination is about Wins, and his 5.5 WAR per year that is assumed. That makes him worth his contract.
But I don’t believe that really is in question, the question is who will end up paying it. We have 2 third basemen now (assuming Turner re-ups) and another one on the way. What I would like to see this winter is more pitching. Always, more pitching. If we are going to spend future money, which of course is fine by me, I say extend those who brought home a championship
No way Arenado is worth 35 Mil a year now and going forward. Much less giving up some of our top prospects. That would be an Arte Moreno move! A franchise killer! No way AF is doing that!
Nolan Arenado is a very good player, a fantastic fielder, and a would love to see him be a Dodger. But I would not give up even one significant prospect to trade for him given his contract. He is guaranteed $35 million per year with a full no trade clause and an opt out in one year. He is under contract until age 35, had a bad year in 2020, and is overcoming an injury. If Nolan really wants to be a Dodger he can opt out next year and negotiate directly with them, and the Dodgers do not have to give up prospects.
Morosi made it sound like Dodgers are interested in Arenado since it will be difficult to sign Seager given his agent is Boras. If Dodgers have to make a choice between paying Arenado or Seager, I would choose Seager right now.
I don’t get the infatuation with Arenado. He’s been a star, and will probably be a star for a few seasons more. But there’s no guarantee he’d play as well in LA as he did in CO. And it’s a massive risk to assume that contract. If he performs up to expectations, he could walk. If he gets hurt or declines, LA would be on the hook for a boatload that could have been allocated to trying to lock up the home grown stars. Mookie was the rare exception of LA trading for someone and getting what they expected.
I’d say sign Kim from South Korea. He’s younger than Arenado. He’ll be cheaper, he’s more versatile. And I’d bet the risk of underperformance is about the same as it is for Arenado. If Seager walks Kim could play short. Or 3rd if Lux proves up. Or 2nd if they keep Seager. Many more options, with similar performance risk, at a lot less risk financially.
Wow… I’m going to miss Ogden!! Great people, damn good baseball…
Utah happens to be one of the best kept secrets of the West… Absolutely beautiful scenery all around… Great for a road trip…
Any trade with May included hurts… I really think we got something for the future in him… I suppose If they can talk Boras into it and then he sort of dances around the idea to Seager!!!
Mark thanks for the clarification!!! I had a feeling…
A very good and thought-provoking article, Mark. You have an excellent way of describing things that even I can understand. Thank you. Hope the Dodgers can get the players they may need and still save some money for Corey, Buehler and Cody. Do not want to see Ogden and Great Lakes not have a team in the Dodger Minor League system next year. Big loss for baseball in my opinion.
What will be a realistic package for Arenado? Assuming he cancels his opt out clause.
One firing/hiring has nothing to do with the other. It would make perfect sense to layoff a $100K employee if it was determined that their services weren’t really necessary. This is a baseball team. Fans pay money to watch a team that tries to have to best players, not the best front office staff. Who’s more valuable to the Dodgers, a $100K office worker or a player truly worth $20M? Of course, it’s the player. I think this year off season is going to allow the Dodgers to find some incredible one year values. And, because of their financial strength can take advantage of the situation if they want. I would think they are going to be several excellent relievers available on one year contracts. This would work out well for the Dodgers. It will allow some of the prospects AF has drafted recently to develop and , hopefully, be ready for 2022.
Morosi on Twitter saying the Dodgers have a serious interest in trading for Arenado. And it seems this is not just a rumor. Time will tell. With 77 mil coming off of the books after 21 and no guarantees you can re-sign Seager, it makes some sense. And most likely Nolan would push the opt out clause back.
The first casualty seems to be Ogden as the Dodgers are cutting ties with that team. Others are already restructuring their teams. The Nats cut ties with Fresno and their new AAA affiliate is Rochester NY. There is also a rumor out there that LA will drop Great Lakes. I did not expect any major free agent signings anyway. I really feel for you guys in states that are locking down. That is not happening here.
MT… Thank you for sharing that!!!
OK, it must be time for Dodger Baseball…
Keep JT – Lux at 2B – Pitching is solid… Let the games begin…
P.S. MT could you expand on this a little…
“I believe that this is a National Emergency and damage done by lockdowns could exceed the death toll of the disease.”
I agree that it wouldn’t make sense to layoff a $100,000 a yr employee and then sign a $20,000,000 employee/player. How would you justify laying off those employees because you don’t have the money yet have the money to sign free agents?
Considering that they might not want to spend any extra money and sign no one, then the most glaring need for this team is closer/closer by committee. If none of those relievers came back then the late inning options become Urias and Gonsolin?