So the past few days we have seen all sorts of made-up, fantasy league baseball trades…. most of which have no basis in reality. Bluto may have had the best idea:
CWS gets
Joc Pederson (from Dodgers)
George Valera (from Indians)
Civale (from Indians)
CLEVE gets:
Seager (from Dodgers)
Maeda (from Dodgers)
Kopech (from CWS)
James Beard (from CWS)
LAD gets:
Lindor (from Indians)
Kluber (from Indians)
Bummer (from CWS)
Konor Pilkington (from CWS)
Rocchio (from Indians)
That was creative in getting some pieces that each team needs and helping Cleveland dump salary, but why would Cleveland want Seager? Substitute Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor and you might have a deal. Then we get this one:
Sign Rendon, trade for Kluber and Betts? Keep May and Urias. Trade away Gonsolin, Gray, Pederson, Verdugo and Muncy.
I don’t see how the team is better, especially since we have no idea what Kluber is capable of next year. It’s a total crapshoot. Kluber missed most of 2019 with an injury not related to his arm, but there were lots of people in Cleveland who thought he was losing velocity in 2018. Maybe he’s OK… maybe he has two good years left… maybe the rest in 2019 will do him good. Maybe it doesn’t! To me, it’s too big of a risk.
Kluber is two years older than Clayton and while he does have 800 fewer innings in the MLB on his arm, the age worries me. Now, if the Indians just wanted to dump salary and rebuild, then I might send a package of prospects, but I don’t think Cleveland wants to do that.
Come on man!
There were other trade discussions, but I can’t take them seriously. Let me address what I think will happen to a few players:
Corey Seager
He’s not going anywhere and is it so difficult to understand that this is a guy who won back-to-back Silver Slugger Awards in 2016 and 2017. He missed almost all of 2018 with two major surgeries. It has been suggested that he might platoon with Chris Taylor. That is about as likely as me being Brad Pitts’ stunt double. Dig this. In his comeback year, among shortstops, Corey was:
- #8 in BA
- #2 in 2B
- #12 in HR
- #3 in RBI
- #9 in Runs
- #9 in OPS
- #8 in OB%
- #9 in SLG
- #4 in FPCT
By nearly every metric, Corey was still in the top 25% of all MLB shortstops in a year in which he was just focused on getting and staying healthy. In 2020, he will get that Silver Slugger Award Back. Book it! Lindor makes absolutely no sense, as you would have to give up too much for someone who is not arguably better.
Lindor’s Best Season: .277 BA/.352 OB%/38 HR/92 RBI/42 2B/.871 OPS
Seagers Best Season: .308 BA/.365 OB%/26 HR/72 RBI/40 2B/.877 OPS
Lindor has more speed, but is also older and while a switch-hitter, he plays in a HR-Friendly environment. I’ll keep Seager. Platooning is fiction. There is a big difference in spending your off-season rehabbing and spending it improving your skills.
Mookie Betts
Mookie will be 28 when he hits Free Agency and is intent upon getting the best deal. If he has another monster season, like 2018, someone will just hand him a blank check and it should not be the Dodgers. Speed is a great part of his game and in his early 30’s he will start losing it. It’s a dope-fiend move to trade for one-year of Mookie. Gavin Lux and probably Ruiz or Verdugo would be the conversation starter. In a word: “No!”
Joc Pederson
I have grown to like Joc Pederson… and maybe he will hit lefties, but that thought is 100% based upon wishful thinking, not reality. If he figures out how to hit LHP, it is because he made some major changes and I can’t see it. He will be a Free Agent after next season and this falls under the category of “sell high.” He had a good year in 2019. I’ll call it his career year (I may be wrong). The odds of him doing that again are not good.
I have said it before and I’ll keep saying it: The Dodgers need to be more RH, even if that means AJ Pollock is the LF’er. The Dodgers have Alex Verdugo in RF. Joc plays a surprisingly good RF, but he is not as good as Alex. The Dodgers refused to include Verdugo in the Yelich deal, so they are not going to trade him now. I do worry about his back, which I think was an issue all of 2019. Hopefully, they have figured it out…
Ryu and Dick Mountain
I love both of these guys, but it’s time to move on. Ryu is going to get a 3-year/$55 Million deal and it should not be from the Dodgers. Do you know he pitched 200 innings at age 19 in the Korean League? Dick Mountain is a legend, but at 40 years old, I can’t see him suddenly fixing his body. Chart a new course with May and Gonsolin. I am not against Corey Kluber, but it’s just the uncertainty.
The Free Agents
What the Dodgers do this Hot Stove Season will be determined who wants to give out BIG DEALS. I cannot see the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, or Cardinals giving out $200 to $300 Million Dollar Contracts due to various financial constraints. I would flat-out not give Cole over $200 Milion or Starusburg over $150 Million. I think it’s fiction that Rendon will take a 4 or 5-year deal. He will get 8-years at $200+ Million. That’s a tough one. Not many third-basemen play into their late 30’s at a high level.
Rendon will be 30 next season, but is a genuine superstar, having OPS’ed over .900 for the past 3 years (1.010 in 2019). He should be good for 5 years. What’s the difference of paying him 5 years/$200 million or 8 years/$200 million? Just lowering your AAV.
Zach Wheeler is projected to get 5 years/$80 million, but I think the Dodgers have arms just as good for a fraction of that price. Remember, pitchers are remarkably unpredictable. The Dodgers won 106 games.. they aren’t far off and they will get better. This may be the year Andrew Friedman will go big, because if there ever was a time, it’s now. However, not at the expense of gutting the farm.
Me? I would rather sign a Free Agent like Nick Castellanos who costs nothing in the form of prospects or take on a Corey Kluber without gutting the farm. Would the Indians take Maeda, CT3, and Joc for Kluber? If they would, I would pull the string. No dope-fiend moves for me… Cole and/or Strausburg? Put down the crack pipe! I would love it, but let’s get real.
Come on man!
Food for Thought
Could the Dodgers trade for Edwin Diaz and restore his form? That’s a guy you might spend some for. I have no idea how the Mets value him and maybe the NY media has ruined it for him. Buy low! Would the Mets trade Diaz for a package of Pederson and Maeda? I would. Aaron Bummer is fully capable of doing what Diaz did in 2109 and Diaz is fully capable of returning to his 2018 form. Relievers are fickle, you know.
Beware of conventional thinking. Julio Urias will be in the rotation in 2020 and pitch a lot more innings than many of you think. His delivery is not “max effort” and I think he will be the #2 the Dodgers are looking for by mid-season. Now, we can only hope that Clayton can master the changeup.
Discussion (45)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Romine is good but defense is somewhat of a problem.
https://www.pinstripealley.com/2019/9/12/20860725/yankees-austin-romine-pitch-framing-defense-free-agency-catcher-gary-sanchez
The bottom line is that he won’t leave the Yankees unless he is promised a starting job and paid like it.
There is a free agent C that is flying under the radar, IMO. His bonafides look perfect for the backup position which we need. Austin Romine of the NY Yankees is the guy. I love Martin, but I don’t think he is bringing enough to the C position. He has lost the base stealing game, for the most part, and is very inconsistent at the plate. Great dugout guy and utility man. Can’t say enough good things, but he’s old, for baseball, that is.
Romine is 30 years old. He can hit, .281 BA, .748 OPS. He is a RH bat. He’s got some power, and his caught steeling rate was 30% in 2019. 2 E’s in 70 games. He made $1.8M last season. He has been a Yankee his whole career, 8 years.
I have never seen him mentioned on any board. Check him out.
Before I start, I think Jeff has had 2 takes the last 2 days…
After re-reading them several times I have come to the realization that I liked both of them and agreed with him in more than a few points…
The Man above works in mysterious ways…
Just a few questions: Why does JT have to move or want to move??? Haven’t read anything in his words or mgmt.
Is the trading or platooning of Seager a real question or are they making a sitcom???
I like Rich Hill so therefore he must stay…
If the Dodgers can acquire Rendon and a solid number 2 starter (Cole) that might be all they need. Granted that is asking a lot. If they resign Ryu too, than awesome.
Assuming the above: (not the actual lineup)
C: Smith
3B: Rendon
SS: Seager (1 year healthier)
2B:Muncy
1B: Turner
Outfield: Verdugo, Bellinger, Pollock.
SP: Bueller, Cole(?), Ryu(?) Kershaw, Urias, May
Continue using Lux as a fill-in in the middle of the infield. Move Muncy around at 2b, 1b and 3b, when needed.
Trade: Pederson. He’s just too one dimensional at the plate, IMO.
Would the Dodgers go all in on Rendon and Cole? Probably not. And, as it has been mentioned here before, the team does not operate in a vacuum.
But this is the year to do it. The planets have aligned, so to speak.
Bellinger, Verdugo and Seager are healthy and one more year matured. Turner and Pollock still have something to offer. And the team has the money to spend!
I honestly don’t think our relief core needs to be messed with too much. Although, I will admit that Jansen is a question mark.
I would love to see Rich Hill return in a smaller role and for his veteran leadership.
In all seriousness, has any reporter of any repute connected this Castellanos to the Dodgers? Ever?
#1 Why are awards like gold glove, MVP, CY young ect. thrown out there when discussing players roles, possible trades ect.? Who determines who wins the awards. Some know it all analysts. All star is another label thrown around to prop up a player’s value. Again who determines who makes the all star team? The bias Fans. I never use these labels/awards when discussing players because I don’t need to. I look at what players do on the field instead of relying on labels to prop up a player or to make my opinion/argument seem stronger.
#2 Why is it that some players just cannot be platooned no matter what? If a player struggled against left handed pitching in 2019 and continues to struggle against left handed pitching in 2020 are you just going to leave him out there to continue to struggle and drag down the team? Why can’t a player be platooned if it makes the team better? Joc Pederson ended up being platooned, does anyone disagree with that decision?
Good takes today. Here’s mine:
1 – The talk of Corey Seager being traded was started by several writers who observed that Cory doesn’t take many pitches and swings at a lot of stuff out of the zone, and that is inconsistent with the Dodgers’ hitting philosophy.
Molly Knight wrote an article for The Athletic where she quoted a scout who said that Corey can’t lay off of the slider in the dirt and was a mistake hitter.
Pedro Moura wrote :
“But his approach to hitting is noticeably different than the rest of their roster. He was their only hitter this season to swing at the majority of pitches he saw — 51.1 percent, according FanGraphs.com. Max Muncy, for example, swung at 40 percent. Cody Bellinger: 44.4 percent.
It is not that hitters cannot succeed swinging like that. Burgeoning Mets star Jeff McNeil, for example, swung at 59.9 percent of the pitches he saw, leading the majors. (Meanwhile, Alex Bregman, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts brought up the bottom at 35.1, 36.8, and 38.3, respectively.)
It’s that the more you swing, the less likely you are to walk, and the more you swing, probably, the worse pitches you will see. The strategy can work for men like McNeil who are contact machines. He makes contact on 71.5 percent of the pitches he sees outside of the zone. Seager, this year, was at a much more pedestrian 57.2 percent.
In games, this often manifests as Seager swinging at a first pitch that he would be better off letting pass. Remember how Game 1 of the National League Division Series began? Patrick Corbin issued three consecutive walks, to Cody Bellinger, Chris Taylor, and Max Muncy, after earlier walking A.J. Pollock. The bases were loaded and one run was already in. A single would break open the game.
Corbin started Seager with a slider below the zone. Seager swung at it and missed. The next pitch was a similarly located slider. Seager passed on it. The count 1-and-1, Corbin threw one more slider, low but a likely strike. Seager grounded out on it. It’s easy to envision a different outcome had he stayed within the zone.
Corey Seager is 25 years old. He has been an All-Star. He has been the unanimous rookie of the year. He led the league in doubles this season. He can take walks. He plays shortstop. He has a lot going for him. But league evaluators believe his approach at times hurts him.”
This doesn’t mean that the Dodgers are looking to trade Seager or even that they should trade him, but it does point out a discrepancy between the Dodgers’ management and Seager’s approach at the plate that could mean that they are open to trading him for the right deal.
2. The story that Nicholas Castellanos is working on his defense is an old one. In fact, there’s a story about it every year. The Chicago Tribune reported on his “improvement” as a defender:
“Castellanos had minus-9 defensive runs saved in right field, according to the Fielding Bible, but he was minus-19 with the Tigers. His Ultimate Zone Rating improved after the trade from minus-12.9 to minus-4.4.”
Minus 28 runs save in two seasons? Wow!
Kiley McDaniel at Fangraphs had this to say:
“Castellanos is very young for a free agent bat, so he may get a longer-term deal than his track record would suggest. Still, he’s posted a -28 DRS and -17.6 UZR in two full seasons as a corner outfielder, and if teams think that is his true talent level in the field, they may not be comfortable with whatever his glove will be in 2023.”
And he’s previously objected to a request to move to 1B, raising questions about what kind of teammate he is:
Per Michigan Live: “The situation came to a head last September when the Tigers approached him about the possibility of moving to first base. Castellanos considered the proposal and then said no.
“I told them, ‘If you offer me an extension and show me that I’m a piece of the future, I’ll play first. I’ll even throw bullpens for you. But give me that security.”
Without that guarantee, Castellanos said he preferred to keep trying to improve in right field. He said he didn’t want people to say, “Oh, third base didn’t cut it. Right field didn’t cut it. Now he’s a first baseman.”
3 – I agree that the cost of a one year rental of Mookie Betts is too high for the Dodgers to consider. I agree that it’s time to walk away from Hill and Ryu. If they don’t plan on extending Joc Pederson, it’s time to trade him too.
4 – the reason that I find Zach Wheeler interesting is his outstanding stuff at what will be a lower price than the Coles and Strasburg’s of the world. But my guess is that most MLB teams are thinking the same way which will drive up his price. And as to comparing Wheeler and Stripling, anyone who has watched them both cannot possibly say that they are the same guy.
5 – So, what do the Dodgers do to become less left-handed offensively? No to Nicky C.
6 – No way Julio Urias is goint to double his IP from 78 to 150 or 160 next year. The Dodgers baby their pitchers and haven’t done a good job in preparing Julio for the rigors of taking the ball every 5 days 33 times per season. Without Ryu or Hill, this leave a hole in the rotation. That’s why I think they end up acquiring a veteran starter this off-season. If Friedman et al are going to try to avoid the problems caused by the likes of Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, Scott Kazmir et al, they will avoid re-signing Ryu and Hill.
Realistically, here’s what I see:
1. Verdugo RF
2. Bellinger CF (I want him to hit second so that he can change his whole approach)
3. Castellanos LF (doubles machine)
4. Muncy 3B (perfect cleanup hitter)
5. Turner 1B (Max and JT Flip-Flop)
6. Seager SS (best #6 hitter in baseball)
7. Smith C
8. Lux 2B
I also think Gavin Lux could be the ROY. If so, he is he will likely hit .280+ with a .345+ OB% and 25 HR to go with 25 SB. He may very well leadoff.
AJ Pollock will be 32 next month and most agree (even AJ) that he has lost a step. He is no longer and everyday CF’er, but he can play there on occasion.
If Joc were gone and Castellanos were signed, AJ could be the 4th OF and backup 1B. Learn a new spot. At 32, in that role, he could get 400 AB’s and hit .285 with 20 HR. He’d be very useful.
I’m not sure why some people are down on Cory Seager. Nature of the Beast, I guess. But, I agree, he’s not going anywhere. He’s young, one of the top players in the game. I think he has a big year in 2020.
I do get the trade for Lindor movement, but it makes no sense to include Seager. Such trades are always difficult, especially with a team like Cleveland which has playoff hopes. Sorry, Kluber I don’t get. I’m guessing another lot of talk, speculation and nothing happens moment at the Winter Meetings.
I still think Friedman searches the trade market for a relief pitcher or two and I think they shake up the roster. Will they trade Joc, lot of production to replace? Maybe Hernandez or Taylor. They’ll definitely keep one.
Signing a Rendon creates musical chairs and somebody loses a position. Moving Muncy or Lux to the outfield just creates more of a logjam and too few at bats. But Rendon does make sense if you’re looking to cover third for the next five years or so. Just don’t see the Dodgers adding Castellanos unless they unload Pederson and Pollock.
I’m guessing the Dodgers look for an up and coming starter in the trade market or try to ink Gerrit Cole for a $200 million. Crazy? Maybe, definite risk, but if he stays healthy, the Dodgers improve their odds of winning a World Series. What other player has that impact?
Or they can hope that Julio Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin take over the role and put the Dodgers over the top. Not the worst idea, certainly less costly. Growing consensus that Ryu returns to the Dodgers, no surprise there.
My best guess is the Dodgers make some changes, try to improve the bullpen and look for a starter. The Jansen situation is probably going to play into Friedman’s approach. They need more certainty at the back of the bullpen. It was that uncertainty that cost them game 5. They did everything they could to avoid using Jansen.
All things considered, expect big seasons from Seager and Pollock.
I agree with a lot of what you’re putting down today Mark. You must have gotten you meds right for a change.
I usually stay away from trade suggestions on this site because of all the prospect huggers thinking their mid-level farmhands are the second coming of Tony Gwynn.
I find it hilarious that you lambasted me around the trade deadline for wanting to go after Hand, you said that wouldn’t happen because the Indians were going to get Carrasco and Kluber back in a couple of weeks. Now, you don’t think Kluber will be good next year?
No risk, no reward. You have to give up something to get something.
You don’t see how the team gets better with Kluber, Betts and Rendon? You must not have your glasses on. Adding two MVPs in their primes and an Ace certainly won’t make the team worse!
Moving Along…
Seager – I agree. It makes no sense to trade him for a more expensive shortstop with the same amount of team control.
Betts – I’ll take him even if it’s only for a year.
Joc Pederson – Sell high. I’d rather have Verdugo out there every day than deal with teams stacking lefties to cool Joc for another season. But, I would rather have Betts for 1 year, than Verdugo for the remainder of his control.
Ryu and Hill – I loved those guys, but time to move on. I would consider Ryu if he was going to come back on a team friendly deal. I’m done will Hill unless he wants to be a reliever on a one year deal.
Castellanos – I’d rather have Pollock than Casty. I wonder how much you’ve actually seen him play, because he’s a bad outfielder and he won’t play 1B. DH is in his immediate future.
Back to Kluber – You want to trade Maeda, CT3 and Joc for him, but not Gonsolin, Verdugo and Joc? So, you would trade for him after all. Contradicted in your own words and like I said, you just don’t like my suggestion because Verdugo is in there. Fine, if you can get that deal done, I’m all for it. But, I still don’t mind giving up Gonso, Dugo and Joc for him.
Urias – I totally agree, in fact, I think he can be as good or better than Bueller. But, the Dodgers screwed him by not building him up to 120-130 innings.
You can do a lot worse than a post-season rotation of Bueller, Urias, Kershaw and May. But, Kluber would be a great insurance policy.