In doing some research, I was reminded of two trades the Cardinals made this year that did not include Ozuna. In 2014/2015, the Cardinals had two solid OF prospects that they were very high on…Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty. This year they were traded to Toronto and Oakland respectively. In the trade to Toronto, Grichuk netted them a very good RH middle reliever, Dominic Leone. In 70.1 IP in Toronto, he went 3-0 with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He had 81 K’s and 23 BB’s in those 70.1 IP. They also received RHP prospect, Conner Greene who is now #23 in a good Cardinals system.
For Piscotty, the Cardinals netted super utility prospect, Yairo Munoz, and “scrappy” 2B Max Schrock. They are #10 and #11 prospects in the Cardinals system, and both are very near.
While the return was good, the primary reason to make the trade was that Grichuk and Piscotty were blocking two very good OF prospects, Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader, prospects# 4 and 5 in the Cardinals system. Bader should make the 25 man this year, and O’Neill is probably a year away. The Cardinals have never been afraid to make trades as long as they got equal value and if they had a need. In these two cases they got both.
The reason this interested me was because the Dodgers have a similar situation. A couple of years back, Joc Pederson was that highly rated prospect who came up, but now may be blocking two other OF prospects who probably have a higher ceiling; Andrew Toles and Alex Verdugo. Joc is not going to be a regular and if they can net any kind of return similar to what the Cardinals got, they should consider it. His value is not going to be better at the end of the year if he doesn’t play all that much. His WS performance could convince some team that he would help them.
One such possibility is the Orioles. They are very RH heavy in the OF. Their OF depth is Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Joey Rickard, and Austin Hays, all RH hitters. Mancini and Trumbo also serve as the DH. In fact, Chris Davis is arguably the only LH hitter who will be on the 25 man. Joc could play a lot with the O’s and could be a potential 40 HR guy in Camden. With the exception of Boston, the other three teams in the AL East have a largely RH rotation. It would open up the logjam in LF and give both Toles and Verdugo a legit shot at making the roster.
It is possible that the Dodgers could work out a deal with the O’s and Rays that would send Joc and Ryu to the Orioles for prospects the Rays would want, and the Dodgers could add in a couple of other not on the NO TRADE list to the Rays for Chris Archer. I still believe that Archer’s true value is in his contract, not necessarily in his pitching. He is a solid dependable innings eater who strikes out a lot of hitters, and balances out the rotation. Make no mistake, I do not believe that Chris Archer is an Ace. He is a mid rotation guy on the Dodgers, but he would be the most dependable starter they have. The Dodgers would also save money in that scenario. Chris Archer has a $4.25M AAV for the next two years, and has two option years at $8.25M. That is 4 years control at a good value. Ryu and Joc are $8.6M AAV. That would put the Dodgers at more than $20M below the luxury tax, balance the starting rotation, and open up a logjam in LF where the loss would be minimal if any at all. That would free up a lot of cash to go after whatever they need at the trade deadline. I would think that the Dodgers could offer whatever the O’s traded for Joc and Ryu, plus two of Jordan Sheffield, Edwin Rios, Imani Abdullah, Gavin Lux, and Connor Wong. If it needed to be three, then it would still work. All five are in the Dodgers Top 25, and the Dodgers farm system is a top 5 system. Because I truly like his potential, it would hurt me personally, but I would include Jeren Kendall in the equation.
One other scenario that FAZ likes to explore, is to go bargain hunting and uncovering that gem. Justin Masterson and Jair Jurrjens were two such options last year, and neither were needed. Brandon Beachy was a prior year consideration. I still think if the Dodgers can sign Clay Buchholz and or Chris Tillman to minor league deals they would be worth pursuing. Yes, I know they are easy to dismiss. They are no longer top of the rotation pitchers, and a potential waste of money that will get the anti-FAZ crowd going nuts. But maybe they catch lightning in a bottle again. What’s the downside?
Discussion (32)
Disagree, not disagreeable
ppppsssssstttttt!
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That’s your segue, AC!
Christmas Day has arrived!
https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-are-close-to-re-signing-chase-utley/c-266348824
I’m like AC, I do not think the Dodgers were ever in on Darvish and if they wanted another starter, we wouldn’t know about it… unless it was another smokescreen!
There was a report that the Dodgers were looking for starting pitching, after Darvish was signed.
But I think it is probably one of those starters, with a high upside, and low risk.
I like Chris Archer, but unless the Rays let the Dodgers steal him, I would not do the deal. Here’s why: While the Dodgers’ starters are 4/5 LH, the Lefties all have REVERSE SPLITS against RHP in 2017:
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Kershaw – RH: .213/LH: .248
Hill- RH: .190/LH: .251
Wood- RH: .213/LH: .228
Ryu – RH: .240/LH .328
Maeda – RH: .214/LH: .263
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So , even though the rotation in LH Heavy, what difference does it make if they get righties out better than lefties?
Has anyone listened to the Effectively Wild Dodgers episode?
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https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1174-season-preview-series-dodgers-and-marlins/
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McCullough is on and is great. He speaks about how the front office likes options (they call it optionality.) I don’t think they specifically mention Archer, but McCullough’s point on similar thoughts is? Is it worth giving up an asset for 1 or 2 wins? Isn’t that how much better Archer profiles than Ryu?
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And on the Lefty thing. Is the NL West really that RH dominant? I guess Arizona is with Pollack and Goldschmidt, but….
AC, you did a good job of describing my comments on the last thread. Thank you.
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For the record, I have gone back and forth with my thoughts on Puig. I enjoy watching anybody have fun, Puig has been fun. The Dodgers at this time don’t have anybody ready to replace Puig. I get that. I also get that Puig could have a monster year. If I say I worry that he will have back-to-back years where he doesn’t hit lefties, it is just that, a worry, not a condemnation. The Dodgers are strong against righties and need that same strength against lefties. Puig needs to lead the way against lefties. I do condemn Puig for his need to and tendency to play the outfield like Repko did. Its dangerous. Some want to turn that style of play against Joc. We won’t ever agree on that.
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I have said that I can’t get behind Grandal because, for me, he isn’t fun. Also, I like Joc as everybody knows, and since Mark over hyped Grandal and under hyped Joc, I countered. I have defended Joc but have not predicted great things for him. I cannot do for Joc what he doesn’t do for himself.
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The Dodgfers have great chemistry. Until a new player has played on the team for awhile, we will not know how well they will fit in except for guys that have a long history of being great clubhouse teammates like Forsythe and Utley. Arieta and Harvey have a reputation of not being good teammates. Weber used to fuss at his infielders. Harper had a shoving match with somebody and that somebody was probably at fault. Guerrero had his ear bit off.
I don’t get the fascination with Archer.
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4 of the 5 Dodger pitchers projected to be in the rotation spent time on the DL last year. Ryu’s arm is held together by paper clips. Hill is 38 and last year pitched the 2nd most innings that he has pitched in a season (only 133). Wood and Kershaw both have injury histories. The Dodgers need starting pitching “depth” (not guys on the DL who can’t pitch, like McCarthy or Kazmir but actual pitchers).
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I know that there is talk of stretching Stewart and Stripling out to start, but they can’t be stretched out as starters and pitch out of the pen at the same time, so they either won’t be ready to start, or they will start the season in AAA. Buehler didn’t look ready to me last year. Maybe sometime later this year, but not likely to start the season in the majors. Urias – may never come back. We have no idea what he will be like if he does return but not likely until August or September. (Hersheiser had the same procedure and was never the same, but he was one of the few who actually came back after having the surgery.) Font? Maybe. Who else?
I enjoy reading the many different views on potential trades, some of which I agree and others that make me scratch my head. The front office does things differently. Who on here ever considered the Dodgers making the trade for Kemp? Most, if not all would have considered that trade a possibility. We will soon see how things work out.
I don’t believe the team is looking for more starting pitching at this point and I don’t think they should go after Archer. As for RHP in the rotation Roberts has said they are stretching out Buehler, Stripling and Stewart and there is also Font and Koehler, depending on their roles. Font could be a middle man and spot starter right now, White, Ferguson and others are a year or two away. Koehler is probably slotted for the Morrow role and seems more steady than Baez or Fields. I believe they see what they have, how Maeda, Wood and Ryu hold up, how the kids do in AAA and how Urias recovers before making any moves. Same for the LF situation, they will see what they have before making any moves. Of course injuries can alter the best laid plans but it is nice to see the kids not being blocked by aging vets.
I agree with you on Archer being only a mid-rotation pitcher, and picking up Archer and his remaining team friendly 4-year contract wouldn’t hurt the Dodgers, He would definitely give the Dodgers more innings then Ryu, and that would be his biggest value to the team. This will be Ryu’s second season after his injury and his last season with the Dodgers before his free agency, I think with Buehler almost ready and Urias maybe in August I think the Dodgers should let it play out and see what Ryu brings to the team this year, I think he will do very well.
I think the Dodgers would be best served if they waited until July to make trades.