Changes in Baseball Are Coming!

Let’s not criticize until we see it all play out. I wanted Stanton, but always had in my mind the fear that taking on a player for 10 years, who has an injury history, was in itself a huge risk in spite of the potential upside. Given luxury tax ramifications the overall cost was potentially gong to be about a half Billion dollars, not $295 Million.

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For now the Dodgers still have all of their prospects, and the flexibility to add on significant pieces. Maybe they’re considering a deal for Ozuna or someone like him, and myriad other moves that remain possible given that they’re not committing a large part of their payroll to just one player.

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Maybe when it’s all over I’ll be profoundly disappointed, and maybe not. I still have a lot of faith in FAZ, and know that if they have a plan A, they also have plans stretching a lot deeper into the alphabet. For now I am holding my judgment until I see this thing play out.

This is one time I wish I was wrong. I was actually looking forward to Stanton in the Dodgers lineup. I have not seen the list of prospects but it sounds like the Yankees sent Starling Castro and “good” not top prospects to Miami for Stanton.

More reports of Yankees getting close to deal.

Chris Camello tweeted that the Dodgers are willing to move any prospect not named Buehler. The hang up is getting Miami to accept back salary like Kazmir or McCarthy. The Cardinals were willing to take on $300 million worth of salary. You have to think this gets done at the Winter meetings. I wouldn’t necessarily give them 12 hours to decide but the Dodgers can put together different offers where Kazmir, McCarthy, Gonzalez, and Arruburena are moved. If I were the Marlins I would take McCarthy. They only have to pay him $10 million next year and he can pitch. He also has a $5 million club option for 2019 due to his injuries with the Dodgers. As much as I didn’t like the McCarthy deal he’s worth $15 million over the next two years for a cost cutting team like Miami.

Ohtani picked the Angels, because he thought he had a good bond with the Angels.

It must be because the Angel’s bench coach, speaks Japanese.

I can’t think about any other type of bond the Angels could give Ohtani.

Dodgers are Stanton’s top choice. But they not only have luxury tax issue but could move into debt-service issue. These issues plus knowledge of being top choice would affect any offer.

Per Heyman

https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/report-stanton-trade-list-includes-4-teams/c-263112926

SF & Cards out on Stanton.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffPassan?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Hey, no one mentioned that Scott Barlow was now a KC Royal and that he has a shot at their rotation.

If the Dodgers trade for Stanton, sign Chacin and re-sign Morrow, I would have a Merry Christmas.

Trading Puig, unless he brings back a kings ransom, would be a mistake. There’s a lot to like about Joc Pederson, and just as much to dislike. Sure, Joc has 40 Hr potential, but so does Puig. After his surge in power this past year to 28, I see Puig as having the potential to hit 30-40 bombs. If Puig builds on his 2017 accomplishments as he enters his prime years, I have little doubt that he has a lot more to show us. And to top it off, he’s the best defensive right fielder in the game.

If the Dodgers get Stanton or even another right handed hitting power bat (e.g., Ozuna), then there lineup (with Puig in it) will be extremely formidable. There would be no place to pitch around anyone. In fact, as much as I would like to have Stanton, it could easily turn out that Ozuna is preferable.

And based on the stuff I’ve been reading lately, Mark may well be right about Ohtani.

Iannetta 2 yr for $8.5 million to go back to Colorado.

Not having the DH always seemed to make it an uphill battle for NL teams.

As long as Ohtani did not go the Giants, Padres or D-Bags, I don’t case, He’s not a winner in my opinion anyway.

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Cross that off the list!

Ohtani is signing with Anaheim.

Many Dodger fans have said that the team needs a #2 starting pitcher. I believe the Dodgers already have that #2 in Wood/Hill. What I have said the Dodgers do need is a legit innings eater at a reasonable cost. I do not care if that pitcher is #2 or #5. Maeda and Ryu are currently the #4/#5, but neither one qualifies as a potential innings eater. It is also 4 LHSP and 1 RHSP. That should also be more balanced.

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I have previously asked what defines a #2, and who should be targeted by the Dodgers for their #2, and would he be better than Wood/Hill? The only names I can remember seeing are Yu Darvish, Chris Archer, and Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani would be a Dodger if that is what he wants. I am sure the Dodgers put on their best dog and pony show, but Ohtani is going to decide based on HIS criteria. Right now that seems to be either the Mariners or Padres, and not the Dodgers. I am sure that can change, but there isn’t any pot that the Dodgers can sweeten to further persuade Ohtani. The Dodgers will not pay $150M and 6 years for Darvish, and yet somebody will.

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Chris Archer is the other name that continues to surface. I do not believe that Archer is a better pitcher than Wood or Hill, but I do believe he will pitch more innings. Archer has had back to back seasons with an ERA north of 4.00. His career ERA is 3.63 and career WHIP is 1.21. His GO/AO ratio is 1.02. What makes Archer in such high demand is that he dependable and has such a team friendly contract with team control up to 4 years including 2 club options ($6.25M, $7.5M, $8.25M option, $8.25M option).

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And yet when Yardbarkers suggested that the Dodgers may look at Gerrit Cole, that suggestion was not as well received as a potential Chris Archer. Cole and Archer are the same pitcher. They both throw 4 seam fastballs 95-96. Archer has a slightly tighter spin rate, but a slightly higher exit velocity. Cole did pitch 200+ innings but had a disappointing ERA of 4.26, with a previous high of 3.88. He has a career ERA of 3.50, career WHIP of 1.22, and GO/AO ratio of 1.22. He is more of a ground ball pitcher than Archer.

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Cole’s disappointed elevated ERA is undoubtedly due to 31 HR’s allowed. That is a very high number for one year, especially considering that he allowed only 36 in the previous 4 years combined. Contrast that with Archer’s 27 HR’s last year and 76 in his previous 4 years combined. Both pitchers’ best year was 2015.

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Cole 208 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 4.59 SO/W

Archer 212 IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 3.82 SO/W

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Cole is 2 years younger. He has two more arbitration years. 2018 is estimated to be $7.5M. He has a higher ceiling than Archer. Cole is from Orange County and went to school at UCLA, after turning down the Yankees who drafted him in the 1st round 3 years earlier. Both Archer and Cole have impeccable character. It would be fun to watch Cole pitch against his Brother-in-law (Brandon Crawford). There really is not much difference between the two, so if Archer qualifies as a #2, so does Cole. If Cole is not a #2, then neither is Archer. The prospect cost to acquire either pitcher will be untouchable.

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So if not Darvish/Ohtani/Archer/Cole, who can the Dodgers get to be a #2? That pitcher is a year away…Walker Buehler. Julio Urias will probably be a #3 in 2019 making Wood/Hill the new #4/#5. Hill could be replaced by Maeda, Ryu will be gone.

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What top of the rotation pitcher who is both available and a better pitcher than either Wood or Hill that the Dodgers can and will go after?

It looks like the Dodgers holding the Marlins hostage to Stanton isn’t going to work. I wouldn’t be surprised if the don’t acquire either Stanton or Ohtani. I think I would settle for Yelich or Inciarte, a durable RHSP and resigning both Watson and Morrow.

To Dodgers:

Stanton and Yelich.

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To Marlins:

Gonzalez ($21.5 million), Erisbel Arruebarrena ($6.5 million in 2018), Kazmir ($16.7 million in ’18), McCarthy ($10 million in ’18, conditional option of $5 million-$8 million in ’19), Ryu ($7 million in ’18). Verdugo, Toles, Alvarez, Diaz.

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To Angels from Dodgers:

Forsythe

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To Angels from Marlins:

Gonzales plus $16M

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To Dodgers from Angels:

Cron

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To Orioles from Dodgers:

Grandal and Santana

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To Dodgers from Orioles :

Britten.

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CF Yelich

3B Turner

SS Seager

RF Stanton

1B Bellinger

2B Taylor

LF Pederson

C Barnes

All the sports writers have opinions and none of them know anything. I am not talking about anyone on this site.

Let’s end this thing, Derek Jeter.

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Here’s my final offer. You have 12 hours to take it or leave it:

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The Dodgers send Verdugo, Diaz, Alvarez and Pederson to the Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton. The Marlins also take Kazmir and A-Gon.

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12-hours!

Now being reported that Stanton would accept trades to Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, and Astros, but not the Giants or Cards. Thought the Yankees were supposed to be out of it. Same old story, you don’t know what to believe.

If the Dodgers get Stanton and everyone remains healthy, they would be incredibly formidable. Pitching would also be helped, given the number of runs they would have to work with.

I am all in on an electronic strike zone.

1. I can tell you reason Ohtani should go to any of the teams. I have no idea…

2. JD Martinez will go to the Cardinals.

3. Madden wants Cobb and I would not put it by Theo to sign 2 closers.

4. Martinez is a better deal for the Cards – they keep their prospects. He only costs money.

5. Cutch to SF – I hope so.

6. Britton will not be traded until the Orioles fall out of the race… and they will.

7. It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas.

8. Cole? He scares me.

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Speaking of Christmas, my neighbor two houses down has spent over $100K on Christmas lights:

https://www.facebook.com/LRLights/videos/166543800752275/

Interesting read from YardBarker about possible moves coming at next week’s Winter Meetings.

They have no more insight than we do, but they had fun with their predictions.

1. Ohtani to the Padres – Probably a pretty good prediction. But I wonder what they would have said last week before he nixed NYY. Seattle is looking pretty good here as well.

2. JD Martinez to re-sign with DBacks – Highly unlikely. They need to keep whatever payroll flexibility they have for Pollock next year and Goldschmidt the year after. I think Boston or Toronto are more likely landing spots for JD.

3. Cubs – Will sign Wade Davis, Greg Holland, and Alex Cobb. There is no way they will sign both Davis and Holland. Probably try to re-sign Davis. I can see them going after Alex Cobb who pitched for Joe Maddon in Tampa.

4. Cardinals – Avisail Garcia from the ChiSox. This would be a good move for the Cardinals, and with their surplus of good young pitching the White Sox should get some more young studs in their farm. They are not going to get Stanton. This makes too much sense not to happen.

5. Indians – Andrew McCutcheon. I see the need by Cleveland. They need a RH OF (preferably CF) to replace Austin Jackson. The Pirates believe they have a legit shot at the playoffs, and they have held on to McCutcheon for this long, they might as well ride it out until the trade deadline. It is more likely that the Tribe re-sign Jackson.

6. Astros – Zach Britton – I think this happens. The Stros almost pulled it off last year at the trade deadline. The trade was made, just waiting approval from Angelos who ultimately said no. Learning that they are listening on trade deals for Machado, it sort of sends the message that the O’s may not have the ability to get the starting pitching to compete this year, so getting something in return for Britton makes sense.

7. Stanton to Giants – Now that the Dodgers are engaging in what appears to be serious talks with the Marlins, Stanton is not going to agree to waive his no-trade to SF unless the Dodgers just walk away from it. But I am starting to get the impression that this is going to happen for the Dodgers.

8. Dodgers – Gerrit Cole – This would give the Dodgers a legit #2, but for the same reason that I do not believe McCutcheon will be traded this winter, Cole is not going anywhere without a significant overpay. All bets are off at the trade deadline if the Pirates are out of it. I also think the Dodgers will be happy to keep Hill/Wood at #2/#3 until Buehler and Urias are ready. Cole would only make sense if the Dodgers did not believe they could extend Clayton after the 2018 season (assuming he opts out).

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe that the NL is the only place where the DH is not used, both domestically and internationally, pro and amateur. If it’s what the vast majority of fans want, and it’s what’s they’re most familiar with, then I can’t imagine why baseball wouldn’t adopt it as the defacto standard, everywhere.

Electronic strike zone? YES, YES, YES. And if fans like offense, then providing the hitter with a greater degree of certainty as to whether a pitch is a strike or a ball, will accomplish that.

I saw that the Jose Abreu might be available. Lack of knowledge about Abreu makes me uncertain that he’s a player they should pursue. However, he is a right-handed power bat, and Cody Bellinger could play left field. I’m not suggesting the Dodgers do this, since I know almost nothing about his defense compared to lefty throwing, G G caliber Cody Bellinger. Just thought that given Bellinger’s versatility, something like this, with Abreu or another player, could be considered.

Of course, if the Dodgers get Stanton, fuhgeddaaboutit.

Dee Gorden reportedly traded to the Mariners.

Add MLB baseball to Portland and Las Vegas (I would like that) and realign teams both at division level and league level. Reduce games played from 162 to 154. Reduce travel miles. Complete the WS in October. Put teams located in western half of US in the NL and eastern half teams in AL.

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Definitely electronically called strikes and DH in both leagues. Reduce time between innings and pitcher substitutions. Max number of pitchers in a game limited to 4 . Stop reviewing plays where a player might have come off the bag for a half a second.

While the Stanton/Ohtani saga continues, the Chicago Cubs signed Tyler Chatwood to be their #4 at 3 years $38M. I think this will turn out to be very good for the Cubs. Chatwood improves the team over John Lackey. Since returning from his second TJ surgery, his metrics away from Coors are significantly better than they were at Coors. For the last two years – Home – 6.07 ERA and 21 HRs; Away – 2.57 ERA and 14 HR’s. With the Cubs, the most he will have to pitch in Colorado will be one game per regular season. The Cubs could look ahead and move the rotation around so he may not have to pitch the 1 game. Chatwood turns 28 next week.

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They still need to replace Arrieta, but with Lester (35), Hendricks (28), Quintana (29), and Chatwood (28), that could be a formidable #1 – #4 if they do not do anything else. They will find a #5, but they still have very little else to fall back on. They do not have anyone in their farm that is ready to make the jump. They always have Montgomery to fall back on.

Chris Camello is reporting that the Dodgers are in discussion with the Marlins about Staton.

I would think Mexico City and Montreal would be the two cities MLB would like to see awarded franchises.

The expansion Las Vegas Knights (hockey) are averaging 17,833 per game in attendance, 99% of capacity. They are supported by the corporate community (casinos) who buy luxury suites for their high rollers and VIPs. The AT&T Arena was privately funded by MGM resorts and sits on their property. It will also work perfectly for basketball.

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The new Raiders Stadium had $750 out of $1.9 B publicly funded but it comes from the room tax fund that also paid for the LVCC (Convention Center) expansion and even a freeway improvement project getting cars into and out of the strip corridor off I-15 Fwy from the south (LA) UNLV football will also share the stadium and it will get a major bowl game each year. It is being built on land behind Mandalay Bay owned by MGM that has Fwy offramps on both sides.

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A new domed stadium for baseball would need to be built, similar to Chase Field in Phoenix. The advantage baseball has is the 81 regular season home games per year instead of 8 for pro football and 6 for college; 41 for the NBA and 38 for hockey. The funding formula used for the Raiders would work for a baseball stadium, casinos are on board, which means the state is on board (gaming taxes, property taxes and sales taxes from resorts account for more than 50% of the state’s budget) I believe it is just a matter of time before Las Vegas has every major sport like Phoenix does. Phoenix is a much bigger market at #5 but does not have the advantage of tourist visits and corporate sponsorship that Las Vegas enjoys or the huge room tax fund. The facilities are also being built close to the strip corridor benefiting both local and tourist access.

An interesting impact on expansion will be by the pushback against publicly funded stadia.

1. Fix September rules

2. One foot in batters box

3 no pitch clock-fine repeat offenders

4. Goodbye to God Bless America

5. Less commercials between innings once game goes to extra inning. Sponsors have gotten their money’s worth.

6. AUTOMTED STRIKE ZONE!!!!!

Expansion will increase offense like it always has in the past.

Screw the DH! I could make 5 or 6 suggestions that would help pace of play without screwing with the game. Their proposals will do nothing to increase viewership of baseball just diminish how much real baseball fans enjoy the game. I’m all for Montreal getting the Expos back.

Now, to the real subject. Chris Camello tweeted out that the Dodgers were pushing hard for Stanton now. Trade not imminent but due to how complicated a deal would be due to contracts and players but the Dodgers are in. Camello broke JT’s and Kenley’s signings almost down to the $ about 24 hrs before the talking heads like Rosenthal.

No to the DH!

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I can’t see baseball limiting the number of pitchers who pitch in an inning but can see baseball requiring that a pitcher who has been announced must pitch to at least one batter and that a hitter who has been announced must hit.

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With the expanded use of bullpens, I can see the rosters expanding.

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I can also see a limit on visits to the mound by a catcher or other player.

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Oakland has never really supported the A’s. I can see San Jose (maybe baseball forces the issue), Portland, Las Vegas. I live in the Sacramento area – we have an SMSA population of about 2.5 million, but I don’t think that Sac can support an MLB team.

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As to expansion, there are too many “small market teams” who have trouble scraping together payroll – really Miami wants a payroll of $90 MM? That’s a wealthy city. Who needs another small town team that will have trouble competing?

Population is a tricky thing, Las Vegas is ranked 28th above but that is not including the cities of North Las Vegas and Henderson which are contiguous. Clark County’s metro population is 2.17 million. The city also averages over 3 million tourist visits per month: what better city to take a road trip to see your team? San Diego is ranked at 8th and has always struggled with attendance. San Jose is ranked ahead of both SF and Oakland, maybe that is a good destination for the A’s.

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Purists hate the DH but younger fans love it, who wants to see pitchers hit? It has increased offense, prolonged careers and lets starters pitch deeper. My main problem is different rules for each league and since it’s staying it should be the same in both leagues. I am also not a fan of the double switch.

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Any restriction on relief pitchers should be batters faced, not outs. What if a guy can’t get anyone out and can’t be pulled? Have them face at least 2 or maybe 3 batters. Nothing is worse or takes longer than seeing 3 or more pitching changes in 1 inning.

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I am all for a pitch clock but also a batter clock. I am really tired of batters backing out and going through their rituals. Time to limit mound visits by catchers too, it was out of control by the Cubs and Astros in the post season. I have been to minor league games and it works well and improves the flow of the game.

1. I agree that the DH is coming to the NL. I am generally a baseball purist, but I am also a realist and understand that the DH is not going away. I also agree that both leagues need to play under the same rules. I cannot see it happening before a new CBA, but who knows for sure.

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2. The MLB Union will be pushing for expanded rosters, and will probably make this a key negotiation point in the next CBA. This is where the owners are going to have to be negotiating amongst themselves as the large market teams would have no problem with expansion, but the small market teams do not want another 2 players even at MLB minimum salaries. If you make the change, make it two players. Most teams would love to have a 3rd catcher at the end of the bench, and an additional pitcher for the games ever expanding use of specialists.

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3. The only pitching visit limitation I can see in the foreseeable future is to limit the number of trips from the catcher to the mound. The number of trips McCann made to the mound in the WS was ridiculous. With the ever increasing use of pitching specialists, I cannot see the owners agreeing to make no mid inning pitching changes. And with the expected roster expansions in the pitching ranks, this will become even less likely. I can see a limit to the number of warmup pitches to 5 for incoming pitchers.

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4. At an estimated 2.8 million, Toronto would slide into the number three slot behind Los Angeles. Pittsburgh is right at the St. Paul population, and Cincinnati is even less. Since Cincinnati has supported a professional baseball team since 1869, I think they have proven they will support a MLB team. St. Louis and Pittsburgh both have long standing support (from 1870’s).

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Tampa has to move. They cannot support a ML team. I do not know why they keep fighting it. Tampa/St. Pete, Clearwater, and Bradenton are within a stone’s throw and they have successful Single A franchises which is what the population will support. The Florida State League is a good league and has good organizations. They are also the home to multiple spring training teams. Tampa/St. Pete has always been a Yankee town so it is hard for the Rays to gain a foothold.

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Oakland plays in a horrible stadium surrounded by nothingness. They had a new site set up near Laney College in the East Bay where they hoped to open a 35,000 seat stadium in 2023. Unfortunately this plan, which was early in the design stages, was just shot down by the Peralta Community College District after strong opposition from the faculty and student body. There is no Plan B. There were rumors moving to San Jose (SF Giants said no), and to Fremont which has a ton of environmental issues and just was not a plausible location. IMO the only successful location anywhere in Oakland would be Jack London Square, on the Oakland waterfront with lots of restaurants, hotels, and SF Ferry. Any other choice outside of reincarnating Charles Finley, Oakland will continue to flounder.

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I would not mind seeing the A’s come to Sacramento. I do not know if Sacramento would support a MLB team, but they have supported the River Cats, and very much supported them when they were the A’s AAA affiliate. But Sacramento is very much a Giants town, so an exodus from Northern California seems to be their best option. Their AAA team is now in Nashville, so maybe that is an option.

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Other locations that will be considered are:

Mexico City (MLB will want this to work)

Montreal (They want this to work as well)

San Antonio

Charlotte

Las Vegas

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I will leave the capability of Indianapolis to Mark and Hawkeye. I do not know the Midwest very well.

While I am on a roll— Mark, the population chart that you included in your post distorts the actual situation. It only takes into account the population of the city itself and ignores the surrounding municipalities. For example: compare SF and Indy which are listed as having almost the same population, both in the 800,000 range. Actually, the Giants have a much larger population to draw from than does Indy. Some of those cities have a large metro population and others do not, so to get an accurate picture of the ability to support a baseball team they would have to list the population of the greater metro areas instead of the population of the city itself.

I have long felt that they should change the way they determine wins and losses for pitchers. Whoever gives up the loosing run should get the loss. For example: a starting pitcher gives up two runs and is taken out in the 7th trailing 2-0. The relief pitcher gives up 3 in the top of the 8th, making it 5-0. The home team scores 4 in the bottom of the 8th, but they lose 5-4. The loss should go to the relief pitcher who gave up the 3 runs in one inning rather than the starting pitcher who gave up 2 runs in 7 innings.

A certain way to speed up and shorten the game. Not that I want that, but here’s a suggestion.

When a runner comes into the game to pitch run, he doesn’t get to run down to second base to warm up. When a fielding change is made for defensive purposes, he doesn’t get a few fly balls or grounders hit to him before the game resumes. When a pitch hitter comes up, he doesn’t get a few pitches thrown to him to warm up. So, why does a relief pitcher get a certain amount of pitches to warm up, especially since he already did so in the bullpen?

Make the warm up mound in the bullpen exactly the same as the one on the field. When the relief pitcher comes he ‘s ready to go and maybe gets one warm up pitch. Because of so many pitching changes and the fact that they are trying to speed up the game and make them shorter, this would certainly do both. Much more than the automatic walk.

Just my idea. I love the game the way it is and hope the DH never happens in the National League.

Is a team in Mexico now a dead issue???

In between post op meds, I’ve been catching on the last couple weeks of M.T. & A.C.’s posts and all I can say is great work.

Woulda, coulda, shouda with be our mantra till ST…

I agree with changes have to be made for instance pitchers starting pitchers goes 8 innings in a 0-0 tie a relief pitcher comes in the team scores one run the reliever gets the win the picture received nothing only Innings pitched. It should be the starting pitcher gets the win the relief pitcher gets the save what do you think about this