With another home run last night the Dodgers improved their record to 62-38 when they hit at least one HR and are 15-26 when they don’t. Now, you can spin that a lot of ways like: “They need to play more small ball,” or the obvious: “They need to hit more home runs.” I suppose both could be true, but it’s hard to play “small ball” when you try and hit home runs. What’s the solution? Well, it’s not simple, but I am going to focus on a few players and what roles I think they should play.
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger was slow to adjust, but he has adjusted and continues to adjust. Most times with two strikes he shortens his swing and just tries to get a base hit. He still hits righties to the tune of .280 and lefties at a .220 clip, but his BAIP of .278 against LHP shows he’s not just a platoon player. He shows the willingness and aptitude to evolve… and the fact that he is doing that on the fly speaks volumes. Cody is hitting .305 with a .348 OB% the past 28 days. This has been a year of adjustments for Cody, who at 23 is still very young. He may not hit 30 HR this year but he will be close. Looking forward, I expect him to be close to a .300 hitter as he continues to adjust and improve against LHP.
Joc Pederson
Let’s compare Cody with another LH batter: Joc Pederson. Pederson is hitting .256 against RHP and .142 against LHP. His BAIP of .159 against LHP screams that he SHOULD NEVER BAT AGAINT A LEFTY! Joc is hitting .152 with a .259 OB% the past 28 days and yet Dave Roberts continues to hit him at leadoff. You may think that is puzzling. I don’t! It is flat-out insane! Joc will be 27 next season and will never hit LHP. He is a platoon player, PERIOD! If I were FAZ, I would try and find a trade partner… one who overvalues him. Joc is a 4th or 5th outfielder. My opinion is that Andrew Toles would fill his spot nicely.
Yasiel Puig
Yasiel continues to tease us with his immense talent, but I am ready for that show to be over. Yes, I know he had a big hit last night, so this is not a knee-jerk reaction. He is eligible for arbitration after this season and I would not offer it if I were the Dodgers. That leaves his trade value very low, so he could likely sign anywhere. He will be 28 and maybe he will bloom somewhere else. It would be wonderful for Miami baseball to have him as an attraction, but I can’t see a trade happening. The past 28 days, Yasiel is hitting .216 with a .267 OB%. For the second year in a row, he has reverse splits. He is hitting .289 against RHP and .208 against LHP, yet Dave Roberts continues to roll him out there against LHP. More insanity!
Yasmani Grandal
I am going to just say right up-front that this is another player I want to move on from. If I were FAZ, I would tell him that they intend to acquire another starting catcher and that he will be the backup in 2019… and then give him the Qualifying Offer. Hopefully, that will motivate him to sign elsewhere (I think he will have several offers) and the Dodgers get another pick. I have been a big champion of Yasmani, but he never has became who I envisioned. Turn the page! Oh, the past 28 days, Yasmani has hit .125. Freaking .125! His OB% of .343 against RHP and .330 against LHP shows he’s really not a platoon player. He’s just not a player I want anymore. I’m done – Goodbye!
Matt Kemp
Matt Kemp is signed for one more year at $21.5 million. Worst case scenario is that he is the 4th outfielder. Everyone knows that he wants to be a Dodger and mopes and is depressed when he is not, so he shoves Twinkies down his piehole and balloons up to 282 pounds when he’s not. No thank you! He will most likely be a Dodgers in 2019 as he has little-to-no trade value. Again, he actually hits RHP better than LHP, so he should not be in a strict platoon. A leftfield combination of Matt Kemp and Andrew Toles would be nice in 2019. You really can’t look at Toles numbers, as he does not have enough history, but he passes the “eye test” with me. Let Matt retire a Dodger.
Chris Taylor
I love CT3, but I don’t love what he has done this year. However, I don’t “hate” it either. Baseball Reference has him at 3.2 WAR this year, while Fangraphs has him at 2.1. Either way, he’s no chump. He’s just not the CT3 of 2017, but he’s not that far off. His OB% is down 33 points, but that’s not crazy! Players have down years and I believe this is one for Chris Taylor, but he also has some work to do. The past 28 days cT3 is hitting .196 but his BAIP of .333 suggest he has been OK. Again, he has reverse splits, hitting RHP better than LHP, but he doesn’t drop to the level of being a reverse platoon player. Chris Taylor needs to take a page from Cody Bellinger’s book and learn to adjust… especially when he has 2 strikes. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts by 25% and if he does, the rest will follow. He’s a bottom-of-the-order hitter, not a top-of-the-order one. He has work to do over the winter. He is an asset in CF and will get better is plays every day there.
Kike Hernandez
Patience Grasshopper! One more year! He just turned 27 and has shown growth. The last 28 days, he is hitting .327 with a .409 OB%. After being a LHP killer for years he now has reverse splits (but not by much), so he is capable. I always try and visualize what a player can become and I still see growth with Kike. I think he becomes a regular in 2019. A 2B who hits 25+ HR and bats .250 is my picture.
Conclusion
Next season, I would like to see Cody Bellinger play every game at 1B. His Gold Glove there wins games. Max Muncy will be the DH (it’s coming) and the outfield I want to see is Kemp, Toles, Taylor and Verdugo with Alex hitting in the leadoff spot. Assuming Corey Seager can return and play SS, I would start the season with Kike Hernandez at 2B and Cody and JT at the corners. Where I would upgrade is at catcher and it’s no secret I would try and get JT Realmuto. It makes no sense for Florida to hold on to him. Yes, it would take Keibert Ruiz and a couple of others to get him, but if I were the Dodgers, I would buy out the last 2 years of arbitration and give him a 5-year/$60 million dollar deal. The Dodgers then have Diego Cartaya who could understudy him the last year or so.
2019 Lineup:
- Verdugo RF
- Seager SS
- Turner 3B
- Bellinger 1B
- Realmuto C
- Muncy DH
- Kemp/Toles LF
- Hernandez 2B
- Taylor CF
I like that team a lot! Let Dozier and Machado walk unless there is some crazy-good deal available. Farmer, Barnes and a couple of journeymen (maybe Freese is part of that) subs round out the bench. There are some pitchers who might be available, but I would not make any dope-fiend moves. Patrick Corbin would be nice, but at what price? The free agency period all revolves around Clayton. If I had to guess, I would say that he and the Dodgers agree on a two-year extension.
Finally…
I am not sure Turner Ward’s approach is the right approach for this team. Part of his approach is working the count, taking pitches and trying to elevate the pitch count. The problem with that is it is likely that one of the sweetest pitches will be the first or the second pitch. The Dodgers are the best in the game at hitting homeruns and the best in the NL in scoring, but they are not consistent. Yes, when you jump on the first pitch bad or good things can happen, but maybe you have to be selective when you jump on that first pitch. With runners on first and second with no outs, you certainly want to stay out of the double play situation, so flailing away then might not be the right thing, but with a runner on 3rd with one out, may be the right time. Maybe it’s time to move on from Turner Ward. Maybe he goes to Miami with Yasiel.
Back to Now
I’d rather be lucky than good and last night was another quality start and another good win for the Blue. Clayton struggled for a minute but delivered, as did the bullpen by committee. Future Ace Strike Buehler goes tonight. Let’s see if he can adapt to Coors. Floro is developing the guts of a cat burgler. I would not be surprised if most of the pitchers who pitched last night, also pitched tonight. This is playoff baseball. It has to make Maeda more confident to get that save. This team is built for the Post-Season. Can they get there?
Discussion (60)
Disagree, not disagreeable
This looks like a Little League team. Everyone gets to play. I am so upset with Doc.
Lol Laz Diaz may have stock in the electronic strike zone company.
So tomorrow’s lineup is repeated cause that is our lefty killer lineup however Taylor must sit because he hit too well today like Bellinger and Puig has to sit after collecting too many hits. Also Barnes out because it is mandatory we run Grandal into the ground and not risk Barnes seeing too many pitches and moving past the Mendoza line too far. Robert’s Sunday Special:
Dozier
Turner
Machado
Kemp
Freese
Grandal
Puig
Hill
I, just a fan, knowing very little would play this, let the simulation begin:
1 verdugo
2 turner
3 Machado
4 Bellinger
5 Freese
6 Puig
7 Taylor
8 Barnes
9 Hill
A Dodger fans for years and the is the best and most informative I have read on Them. Thank you for sharing
your thoughts and your talents with us.
Doc likes to hit buttons, probably should buy an X Box One or Playstation 4. It’s on the offense, 1 run won’t get it done at Coors. I am hoping to see a better lineup tomorrow that was pretty brutal, so was the Ump!
Jajaja Grandal KO watching..Unbelievable
Roberts is ______________ (you fill in the blank).
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Two Words:
Electronic Strike Zone
I have to ask had there ever been a game where there were six pinch hitters in a row? Is this little league, everyone plays, everyone gets a trophy and a ice cream cone? Ac, Mark or Dodgerrick, please explain to me this logic, Robert’s theories have went beyond my scope.
Just got home and fast forwarded through the game…..horrible offense I can see. Barnes and Dozier..meh!
Horrible check swing calls on both Muncy and Joc in the same inning, Not even close. Gotta love that home cookin’, feel like i am in St. Louis, Damn that hurts.
Let’s go guys! Ferris needs some runs and you are in Coors Field! Need to get Freeland out of this game!
Charlie Steiner makes me want to blow my brains out. Can’t we find someone in a homeless camp somewhere to fill in when Joe Davis is out?
Unless they’re punishing Puig for trying to steal second last night… him not being in the lineup tonight makes no sense at all.
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And Cody needs to be in the lineup every game… unless he’s hurt. He has at least one awful looking at bat per game it seems… but overall, he’s made some nice adjustments and has been swinging the bat really well. Not to mention his defense and speed on the bases.
VS. Freeland
Barnes – 0-9 – in lineup
Kemp – .125 – in lineup
Taylor – .167 – in lineup
Bellinger – 2-3 not in lineup
Pederson – 3-4 – not in lineup
Puig – .333 – not in lineup
Roberts is a ^*%$*@! idiot.
Even if they win he’s an idiot. Enough of his stupid lineup choices…fire his ass.
Bunch of wacky trade proposals today. Kind of fits with the wacky lineup Doc trots out. Regardless they are playing for 1st place today and hold that destiny in their hands. I will worry about the minor leagues and hot stove after the season, although it’s a fun diversion. I see signs Doc is playing with more urgency, maybe not who he starts but the in game moves. Putting guys in motion, PH at key moments, even his bullpen usage was good yesterday. Keep it rolling, they get the Rocks best pitcher today but they get ours too.
It appears that Ross Stripling has his mind right for his role in the bullpen:
https://theathletic.com/512218/2018/09/08/i-want-innings-that-matter-in-games-like-this-ross-stripling-returns-to-action-helps-dodgers-top-the-host-rockies/
Chicken Strip’s fastball was 95.4 MPH last night!
Bellinger and Puig carry the offense yesterday both out of the lineup today. Back to the Freese, Kike, Taylor, Barnes, Pitcher lineup.
There seems to be only two types of pitchers anymore:
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1. Ones who have had TJ; and
2. Ones who will have TJ!
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The latest: Othani and Kopech
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I would not touch deGrom or Syndergaard with a `10-foot pole.
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Wheeler and Corbin? OK – at the right price.
What is Ross Stripling?
#3, #5 or Bullpen?
AC mentioned Jesen Therrien and Brock Stewart.
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I forgot about the other JT and AC is quite right about him. He’s the “bridge” and then the “closer.”
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I have been screaming for two years that Brock is not a starter. Quit stretching him out. He’s a bullpen piece. Quit starting him already!
Kemp has shown the league that he’s lost weight and improved speed a bit. Let’s hope he has a couple of more clutch hits in him so they can move him for 50 cents on the dollar.
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I agree with Mark on Toles and Joc. Toles can do what Joc is doing only better.
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The Dodgers didn’t make staying under the luxury tax top priority to do nothing in Free-agency. They will make a run at Machado and/or Harper. Preferably Machado. The Dodgers need a RH bat more than a LH bat and Turner will be gone after 2020.
Verdugo
Turner
Seager
Machado
Bellinger
Puig
Toles
Catcher
Pitcher
If Mark is correct and I hope to God he’s not then slide Muncy in at DH. Kike and Taylor can be the utility players that they are. Realmuto would be nice.
I have no complaints about our starting pitching
Yesterday MT said that a contact of his with minor league knowledge says the Dodgers have 5 RHSP who are mid rotation. Since Michael Grove was specifically mentioned, I am assuming the others are Santana, May, White, and Gonsolin. I have a lot of hope for Grove, but until I see him pitch at the professional level, it is hard to for me to project him to be a MLB mid rotation guy. Other RHSP in the next wave would include, Edwin Uceta, Gerardo Carrillo, Braydon Fisher, and potentially Alfredo Tavarez. That does not include LHSP like Caleb Ferguson, John Rooney, Robinson Ortiz, and Julio Urias.
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It is okay to have a bunch of mid rotation guys, but how many can you keep on your roster? I submit Brock Stewart was kept too long in the organization to where his value in a trade is non-existent. The Dodgers have 2 mid rotation RHSP (Stripling & Maeda), and two mid rotation LHSP (Wood & Hill) already penciled in, with Buehler and Kershaw (I believe he stays with a new contract) at the top of the rotation. That is 6 starters before we even consider the prospects ready for prime time. I agree that Buehler can be an Ace, but I think Kershaw is devolving into that mid rotation status and the Dodgers need that Co-Ace to go with Buehler. But who? I like the Mets top 3, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Wheeler. But Wheeler has 1 year remaining of team control, and deGrom has two. On the other hand Syndergaard has 3. What would it take to get three years of Syndergaard? Considering Jose Quintana cost the Cubs the minor league pitcher of the year, Dylan Cease, and the #2 projected bat in MiLB, Eloy Jimenez, it is going to take a bunch.
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I know Mark is high on Urias, but I am not ready to designate him as Co-Ace. If it works out, then they can have three Co-Aces. It is not that I do not like Santana, May, White, or Gonsolin. Quite the opposite; I do believe they have a great future. But it is just impossible to have all of them on the 25 man in the next two years, and then it will be too late to move them for anything of value.
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IMO the Dodgers biggest weaknesses are (in no order) leadoff hitter, CF, 2B, and relief pitching. I still like Ender Inciarte who fills two of the voids. Do the Dodgers swallow their pride and consider Dee Gordon for 2B and leadoff, which also fills two voids. At $10MM (AAV, not salary) for the next two years, he is more than affordable. His salary is reported to be $13MM and $13.5MM for the next two years (still affordable). I like DJ LeMahieu, but as fast as Lux seems to be coming, a three year deal might take him out of the picture. No on Dozier.
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I am not as worried about relief next year as I think they have a secret weapon (maybe not so secret) in Jesen Therrien. He will be returning from TJ surgery and I believe still has Eric Gagne has his personal coach. He has a two seam fastball with a late sink, that Gagne calls the one of the nastiest pitches he has ever seen, and a “wipe out” slider that puts him at the top of the list for bridge to Kenley. I cannot wait to see him pitch. Cingrani will be back. FAZ always finds good middle relievers. And maybe they can convince Ferguson to become a relief pitcher permanently. It hurts his projected long term earnings as a starting pitcher, but if he takes a look at what has happened to Brock Stewart, maybe the conversation will not be that hard. Maybe they can make a run at Jose Leclerc in the offseason. There are low cost options for relief, inside and outside the organization. But not so much at CF, 2B, or leadoff. Do they use their pitching surplus to get those pieces?
If Dodgers get to the WS Roberts returns. He probably will anyway.
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I package Kemp with Taylor and try to get a reliever. Dodgers can eat some of Kemp’s payroll.
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Puig and ? to the Mets for Wheeler. Both Puig and Wheeler are free agents after 2019. Cespedes is out for most of 2019 and Puig would therefore be a good one year fit.
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Hill and his salary to the Yankees for a reliever.
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Ruiz and White to the Marlins for Realmuto.
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Joc needs to finish strong or he will be traded. An .800+ OPS and 20+ HRs will either make him valuable trade bait or get him another chance to do what he is capable of doing with the Dodgers. He still leads the team in average exit velocity and has kept his Ks down. Can Toles match that? That’s a gamble.
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Rotation choices: Kershaw, Buehler, Maeda, Stripling, Urias, Wood, Ryu if re-signed, Stewart, Santana, Fergusson plus Wheeler if that trade is made.
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Outfield: Pederson, Verdugo, Toles, Hernandez
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Infield: Turner, Seager, Muncy, Bellinger, Hernandez
Joc is a good luck charm, gotta keep him.
Agree about Cody playing first every day, not worth it to have him crashing into walls or Puig and getting injured .
Interesting post, Mark. A lot to chew on. Are we sure non-tendering Puig is a smart baseball move? Shades of Russell Martin maybe . . .
Very important win yesterday. A lot of runners left on base especially Kike (he knows something from roberts, jaja). I like Roberts shows something imaginative instead of computer advisory only