Andrew Friedman and the LAD Top 30 Prospects Part 2

There was an interview with Friedman recently and he said that the Dodgers are going to put the best 12 pitchers out there for the playoffs.

So here is what we have for pitching in the post season. I’m an OPS guy both with offense and pitching. My OPS stats for pitching will probably sync up with whatever stat you look at. 650 OPS OR BELOW IS GOOD.

Potential starting pitching for the playoffs, OPS stats:

Ryu 577

Buehler 626

Kershaw 647

Maeda 680

Urias 688

Hill 711

Stripling 715

May 792, small sample size

Gonsolin 879, small sample size

Ferguson 1095, small sample size

Potential relief pitchers for the playoffs, OPS stats:

Kolarek 000, very small sample size and he’s just a loogy

Maeda 000, very small sample size

Gonsolin 467, small sample size

Baez 517

Sadler 536, small sample size

Urias 538

Jansen 648

Floro 673 but he’s just a roogy

Garcia 692

Stripling 745

Kelly 746, the damage was done to him in the first 2 or so months

Chargois 814

Ferguson 887

So we have Ryu, Buehler, Kershaw for starters. Where is our 4th starter?

So we have Baez, Urias, Jansen for relievers and 4 guys with small sample sizes that look good. Plus we have Kelly that the damage was done to him in the first 2 or so months.

On Dodger Talk, the host is saying Joc did not have a good lead at 2b and wasn’t getting an aggressive lead once the pitch was thrown. Hence Hosmer had a chance to throw him out on the ground ball by Verdugo

Agree, absolutely the correct thing to do with Joc going to third. He did the correct thing, except putting his hand up and touching Machado’s glove, might of been safe otherwise.

Richie,

In spite of being thrown out, if Joc does not lead off with a hit, that ground ball to 1B is the 2nd out, and nobody is on base. At least we had runner on, and one less out.

And why shouldn’t Joc go to 3B? How often do you see a throw to 3B after the ball is hit to the right side. Joc did what just about any runner would have done. Give Hosmer credit for a great play.

Gotta give credit where credit is due, Pollock a home run and a double off of righty pitching. Something he has hardly ever done this season against righty pitching.

Bum, please give Joc a sliding lesson. It looked like he had hit a patch of ice coming into third..

Now we know why Bum put Joc in the lead-off spot.

Did anyone around here want Kirby Yates for our pen?

Nice win

You think Buehler could go 1 more inning?

And get rid of Chargois too

Would someone please tell me why Joc is still leading off. He’s now down to .226 and 0 for last 23.

The umpire behind the plate is just another advertisement for an electronic strike zone.

Horrible HP umpire. No idea what is a strike.

This Negron dude has shown some nice skills so far!

The Dodgers are going to need to get some pitching in the off season via free agency or trade. You never have enough pitching, even if May and Gonsolin succeed.

No need to waste assets on position players, we still have a few position players to come from AAA.

How strange ? Yimmi gives up another home run. This guy is going to break the record of home runs given by a reliever !!

If Yimi sniffs a post season roster the Dodgers have some big issues. Maeda definitely needs to be in the BP.

I repeat.

Yimi Garcia is not, or ever will be a MLB quality Pitcher.

That inning turned when Maeda gave up a hit to a pitcher hitting under a .100.

Maybe it’s time to send him to the pen.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

That is why Maeda needs to be in the pen.

He cannot keep focus too long… maybe 2 innings.

Time to move Maeda to Bullpen ??

I think Maeda is ready to go to the bullpen down the stretch. He was great for those first 2 innings

I wrote this about Victor Gonzalez back on July 16, swimming just below the surface.

“The invisible man is left-hander Victor Gonzalez (23) who was signed back in 2013 out of Vera Cruz, Mexico. He lost the 2017 season due to injury. Gonzalez outgrew the California League this year after 8 appearances with the Quakes and has been a versatile member of the Drillers staff over his next 12 appearances, eight of them starts. He is 3-1 with a 2.28 ERA over 43.1 innings pitched with 42 strikeouts and 14 walks. In his last 10 appearances, he has an ERA of 1.89. In his last four starts, he gave up four earned runs in 22 innings. Since then he has been used in long and short relief and given up no runs in 7.2 innings.”

He moved up to OKC on July 26 and has been impressive. His last three appearances have been one hitter only and in each case he stranded an inherited runner. Looks like he is being groomed for a new role.

Was that Russell Martin, or was it Will Smith in his Russell Martin disguise?

Saw todays batting order and found out Maeda has a higher BA than 5 others in todays lineup. Just saying.

AC/DC/anyone else, what do you know about Victor Gonzales? This snippet is from today’s LA Times:

Friedman said one other minor leaguer, Victor Gonzalez, could pitch his way into the postseason bullpen. A 23-year-old left-hander, Gonzalez has been dominant since recently moving to the bullpen. Featuring a fastball that sits between 94 and 96 mph, the native of Mexico has given up one earned run in 15 2/3 innings as a reliever between double-A Tulsa and triple-A Oklahoma City. He has held left-handed hitters to a .138 batting average and .417 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in 91 plate appearances this season.

” Doc is getting better”???

Isn’t that special!!!!

It’s Aug., it’s time to stretch out, always keeping an eye on pitch count…

P.S. maybe I was blowing smoke… I’d take Verdugo, Kelly and Belli (if we have to)…

It all starts with Joc finding a new home as in club…

Ruiz and his 20% CS… I’ve found that at AAA & AA a significant amount of SB’s are attributed to the pitchers and not the catchers…

Yes, of course I was a catcher for years…

I’d love to see a free agent OF nailed down next year so as to have a set OF…

Buehler had a very good game last night. Doc is getting better at letting the starting pitchers pitch into later innings.

We scored three runs without a HR. Our base running was very good. It was the back end of the line up that did it.

We know the three starting pitchers for the play off. Baez for the 7th, Kelly for the 8th, and Jansen for the 9th. A lot of auditioning going on for the other4-5 spots.

Joc just does not play very well the second half of the season. He is playing himself out of a job. I have more faith in Beaty in LF.

Talking about Greinke for a moment, the Dodgers did offer Zack a huge extension somewhere near $160 million. The Giants made a similar offer, but Greinke liked LA and was going to take the Dodger offer. Then out of nowhere came the DBacks and an absolutely stupid offer of $206 million. The Dodgers mistake was not extending him before the season, which they could have done for a lot less money. They then tried to trade for him once the Arizona management changed, but balked at taking the entire contract only wanting to pick up around $25 million per year. The Dodgers apparently were willing to throw in a couple of good prospects into the deal. But the DBacks wanted to dump the entire contract as a way of saving face. Arizona simply couldn’t absorb a contract of that magnitude and sustain a winning team. I do think Will Smith will hit better than projected. Just a lot more information available once you arrive at Dodger Stadium. Plus players evolve. As to O’Malley years following the 1988 championship, they made a major blunder trading Pedro Martinez and for whatever reason money became a big concern, which prevented the Dodgers from picking up key players who might have helped them win a championship. O’Malley became convinced that he had to have a NFL team for the Dodgers to survive because big corporations were taking over baseball. City politics kept him from building a football stadium at Chavez Ravine and he decided he had to sell the team. It was a misread. Corporations faded and local ownership became the norm. Don’t forget the role Fox had in hurting the team, trading Mike Piazza, who O’Malley could have signed for a lot less than he wanted in his final months with LA. But he was going to sell and didn’t want to stick the new ownership with a 60 million dollar contract. Also, we should never forget Tommy’s short stint as GM and his trade of Paul Konerko. Or the Dodgers letting Adrian Beltre Walk. Bad decisions, poor ownership. But here we are, we own the NL West, made the last two World Series (should have won in 2017), have an incredible farm system and the ownership has been sinking millions of dollars into stadium improvements. Not a bad place to be.

Top 3 starters are 11-2, 10-2, and 10-2 and all have lost wins when the bullpen could not hold a lead. Maeda at 7-8 and Stripling at 4-4 and Hill at 4-1 or possibly Urias at 4-2 are the candidates for the #4 starting spot in the playoffs and the weak link. May and Gonsolin getting auditions is no surprise but not likely they lean on them in the playoffs as a starter but you never know. If Hill ramps up and can give 5 playoff innings he would be my choice playing for a contract next year he would be uber motivated. Ryu playing for a contract, Kershaw to remove the stain on his resume and Buehler to prove he can be an ace makes them all hungry to excel. AF may have not done much at the deadline but now they are promoting those prospects and they are not blocked. This off season there could be a lot of movement to address the roster but right now just get the team to gel for a stretch run and fix the bullpen and 4 starter spot internally. With Hill the 4 starter Maeda and Urias fortify the pen. Same with Gonsolin and May. Let’s see what Kolarek has got because the loogie spot has been a problem all season. This bullpen can be fine if they are not exposed too much and the offense performs. It will still come down to a one run lead and can Kelly, Baez and Jansen hold it in some games.

AC, I also love Ferguson but can you please explain to me why Dodgers can’t teach him a third pitch. Like a young Kersh he only has the curve and fastball. It’s when Kersh developed the slider his career took off. Ferguson has to develop a slider or at least a change and I think he could be devestating. Very frustrating! Also you can’t blame AF for 17. That team was plenty good enough to win! Roberts and players blew that series! And enough about Kersh in post season. He isn’t always horrible. In 17 hewas BRILLIANT in games 1 and 7 and he had a bad game 5. He hasn’t always been bad. It’s kind of been a bad and brilliant kind of post season for him where in regular season it’s been brilliant and good!

Bullpen……………………….. who needs a bullpen? Good morning, good afternoon and goodnight.

I love watching Belli play 1st. I’ve always love lanky lefties who can pick it in a rocking chair.

Alex Verdugo had a 12% K rate in the minors. It’s 14% in the majors, so it’s not a substantial difference… and I am loving me some Alex Verdugo right about now. I went back and looked at some video of him last year and he is noticeably faster this year. That’s a story I want to know more about. Was it Gil Reyes? I think Alex should be in CF and Joc and AJ should platoon in LF. That puts Bellinger in RF and Muncy at 1B. I think Gavin Lux era should start soon. However, he played SS again last night. I think if he was coming soon, he would be at 2B.

Great summary of recent Dodger prospects AC! I have often wondered what separates a Gavin Lux from Mitch Hansen or Jeren Kendall? What separates Trevor Oaks from Tony Gonsolin? Is it just ability? Is it how they respond to the player development instruction? I am working on a post that deals with the subject of player development (maybe I in a couple of weeks). It seems to me that there are many talented players who have a very difficult time with the baseball/celebrity lifestyle. Anyway, lot to ponder

Here’s something very interesting.

At AAA, Will Smith hit .269 this year and struck out 49 times in 223 AB’s. That’s a 22% K rate,

Kay bear is hitting .316 in AAA in 38 AB and has struck out just 1 time. One freaking time! That’s nothing short of amazing. That kind of elite bat-to-ball skill is extremely rare. At AA, he struck out 21 times in 276 AB’s – that’s 7.5%.

For his career he has struck out 10% of the time in 1439 AB’s. Will Smith’s minor’s career spans just 1033 AB’s and he struck out 27% of the time.

This is not to tarnish Will Smith’s star, because he has been amazing, but since his call up to the majors, he has a 33% strike-out rate, He is hitting .327 with a .382 OB% and Slugging .816 with a 1.198 OPS.

Maybe he has discovered the Holy Grail of Hitting, but I don’t think so. It’s simply unsustainable. There is nothing to indicate otherwise, It’s pure blind luck. When Cody Bellinger broke out this year, you could see it was sustainable because he dramatically cut down his swing in situations and dropped his strikeout ratio by double digits. Will Smith’s strikeout ratio has actually went up.

I hope I am wrong and I hope he keeps it up, but the metrics say NO – he’s going to crash and burn. I still say he’s a .230 hitter who hits 20 HR with great defense. Don’t delude yourself into thinking that this is Will Smith. But I do love it while it lasts!

AC – Great write up as usual Comments thus far really good!!!

For some reason I don’t think the club wanted Zack back.. Just my thoughts…

I think AF folded up the poker table after he saw he couldn’t get Vasquez or other RP on his list because the teams he spoke with wanted to bleed him and AF knows when to hold em and when to fold…He had a list of untouchables and they wanted 1 or 2 of them and it was no cigar…

The thing that always bugs me is that I’ll never really know!!!

I know it was the Madres but the Kid made me happy last night and SP is really coming around affording alot of flexibility down the road…

AC, there is no question that AF and the FO manage their prospects and farm very well. I have never questioned or commented negatively on their ability in that area. This is how a team gets built for longevity and relevance and AF has proven it the last 5 years. However, there is a difference between building a team for longevity and building it to win the WS. So far, AF is in the former category with 2 WS losses.

In 1950, Walter O’Malley gained majority control of the team. The Rickey era was over. The Dodgers had never won a WS. They had been founded 61 years before they won their first WS in 1955. I was in Brooklyn watching it on our tiny black and white TV. Brooklyn went nuts. You could hear the shouts of joy from houses and on the streets. I had never witnessed anything like that before. Perhaps some of you can remember that moment or were there. 61 year drought. O’Malley gets control of the team and within 5 years delivers a WS. He moves the team to L.A. in 1958 and the Dodgers win their 2nd WS in 1959! All told, the family wins 6 WS including the 1988 match. His son Peter, wins the last two as Walter died in 1979, I believe.

Since then, 31 years have passed and not a single championship. 29 years passed without winning a pennant! The O’Malley family sold the team in 1998. The shit really hit the fan, then. Rupert Murdoch bought it. And in subsequent years, the ownership, which changed hands a couple of more times before Guggenheim took control, has failed to deliver even a pennant until 2017.

So, we are back to relevance again. That is good, but it is not good enough. It was never good enough in Brooklyn as we had the Yankees rubbing it in our face for 15 years before we finally won in 1955. This is the reason why I conclude that the Dodgers have not been built to win since the O’Malley’s were in control. It’s the ownership. The FO can do an admirable job of running the organization, but the ownership has to mandate them to win it all. I have not seen or felt this to be the case yet. I thought they might have that mentality when they got Greinke in 2013, but then Friedman let him walk the first year of his take over. He wouldn’t give him that extra year and look how it has worked out for Greinke, who is miraculously back in the thick of it with Houston. Do you think there is extra motivation to get his ring, especially if they face the Dodgers? If AF would have kept Greinke, we would have Ryu, CK, Greinke, Hill, and Buehler in the 2017/2018 campaigns. I think our chances would have been better. This was a blunder that had $$ at its root. I’m hoping that the FO had their hands tied by ownership and it wasn’t AF’s decision to not keep Greinke. Can anyone verify that?

The Dodgers are going to have quality position players 1-8, I think DJ Peters is going to eventually be that last piece of the puzzle in the outfield with Verdugo and Bellinger. The infield is going to eventually be Muncy, Lux, Seager, Turner. Catchers Smith and eventually Ruiz.

All those infield and catching prospects are expendable except Kody Hoese who I think will eventually take Turner’s spot. I’d also keep Busch and Mann just in case. But the rest are expendable including Jeter Downs (sell high). I’d say outfielders too but Luis Rodriguez is the only outfield prospect in the top 30, but trade him too.

You never have enough pitching, so if Friedman can make a trade or 2 with all those infielders and catchers in the top 30 prospect list for quality pitching that would be ideal.

Just like you said a quantity over quality deal or 2. Get pitching, pitching, pitching, and more pitching.

Again you never have enough pitching. Ferguson is just 22 years old let him have as much time as it takes in AAA or even get him out of the hitter friendly AAA and put him in AA. Just an idea.

You mentioned the trade value of Yadi Alvarez and Jeren Kendall is negative, I’d add Dennis Santana to that list.

Once again you never have enough pitching.