With the Yankees being TKO’ed by the Red Sox, the slate is set. The Red Sox play the Astros while the Dodgers play the Brewers. Many Dodger fans didn’t think the Dodgers would be one of the last four teams standing…. but here they are! Think about this: The Dodgers are one of the TOP FOUR TEAMS IN BASEBALL! I think that the Dodgers will be one of the last two standing, but I am not smart enough to know if this series with the Brewers will got four, five, six or seven games. I tend to lean to SIX, but in the end, I think the Dodgers depth will win out wherever and whenever the series ends.
It used to be that you could compare lineups and decide who had the best player at each position, but with the Dodgers, who do you put where?
1B – Bellinger, Muncy or Freese?
2B – Dozier or Hernandez?
3B and SS are easy
LF – Pederson, Kemp or Taylor?
CF – Bellinger, Hernandez or Taylor?
RF – Puig, Hernandez or Kemp?
Here’s the Verdict
I take the Dodgers at every position… but whatever two OF positions Cain and Yelich are playing. The Dodgers take Catcher, 1B, 2B, SS and 3B as well, but it’s closer than you think. One of the biggest issues is defense, and Moustakas, Schoop, Aguilar, and Shaw are all inferior defenders, while the Dodgers infield defense is above average… no matter who plays where. Max Muncy has even been getting better at 1B incrementally to where I would rate him average to above average.
I Call Bull on the Pen
Of course, the Dodgers’ starting pitching is vastly better than Milwaukee’s, and while I know the Milwaukee bullpen is lauded, I really do not believe it is better than the Dodgers bullpen as it is now constructed… and the construction may change. Here’s a little known fact from Ken Gurnick:
“The Dodgers’ bullpen allowed fewer runs per game this year than the Brewers’ relief corps. Milwaukee relievers have allowed more inherited runs and a higher percentage of inherited runners to score than Los Angeles’ relievers. The Brewers have only a slight advantage over the Dodgers in save percentage (66 percent to 64 percent). Milwaukee had 49 saves and 25 blown saves, Los Angeles 48 and 27. When leading after eight innings, the Brewers were 84-3, the Dodgers 80-4.”
That kind of blows up the narrative that everyone has been expounding about the Milwaukee bullpen. Yes, they are good, but they don’t have seven Game Over Gagne’s! I think the Dodger pen will be just as good. The Brewers and Dodgers bullpens finished ranked #1 and #2 in ERA in September, so both units enter the series as a strength of each team. There are rumors that Julio Urias, Ross Stripling and/or Josh Fields may be on the NLCS Roster. Stripling was allegedly tipping his pitches after the All-Star Break, but has allegedly fixed that and Fields has been solid all year… when healthy. Urias could be a secret weapon, but how much can he pitch? I don’t think I would go that route, but I guess FAZ knows more about it than I do.
The final roster will be interesting. It’s possible Chase Utley could make the roster… at Dozier’s expense? Man, there are some hard decisions here. Of course, the Dodgers took the best of seven series with the Brewers this year, 4-3, but this is an all new series.
Arizona Fall League
The only three Dodger players to play were Jared Walker, Ben Holmes and Jordan Sheffield. Both pitchers fared well with Holmes starting the game and pitching three shutout innings and Sheffield pitching one shutout inning in relief. Walker was 1-3 and that hit was a home run! I have high hopes that Sheffield can soon be a “high-leverage reliever,” but Holmes being in the AFL was a mystery to me, however, FAZ may be onto something…. We shall see! Walker hit 25 home runs last year between Great Lakes and Rancho Cucamonga and he’s LH, so there’s that. He can play 1B, 2B and 3B, but 1B is likely his best position. That’s where he played yesterday.
Discussion (76)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Interesting to note that Joc’s partner is expecting their first child next week, and he may miss time due to Paternity Leave.
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I would’ve gone with Walker pitching game 2, and letting Ryu pitch at home.
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I cannot see Wood making the 25.
I just don’t see Doc trusting him in a pressure situation.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/dodgers-were-told-player-sexually-assaulted-a-maid-they-kept-quiet-he-stayed-in-baseball
Anyone read this piece. It should be pretty easy to figure out which player got invited to the AZ Fall League that year and then sent home.
Dodgers going Ryu game 2, Buehler game 3, Hill game 4.
Mark , i think that we are not disagreeing about the final outcome.
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I wrote above:
“The chart that accompanies the article showed that Dodger relievers got a “post-season bump” in velocity (due to adrenaline, no doubt) but that some of the Brewers’ relievers had velocity decreases in the post-season due to overuse and fatigue. As the series progress, I think that this is where the Dodgers will be able to press their advantage. Their superior starting pitching will keep them in games, they will grind out at bats and the Brewers’ ‘pen will wilt due to overuse.”
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You wrote:
“Finally, factor in how much the Brewers will have to use their pen and in all liklihood, the Dodgers pen will be less exposed. ”
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I think that we agree on this point. I just have a different view of how this occurs. Not all aspects of the Dodgers are a strength. Not all areas of their opponents are weaknesses. The Brewers have had a better ‘pen than the Dodgers all season but the Blue’s superior starting pitching and their ability to grind out at bats will ultimately wear down the advantage that the Brewers have in the ‘pen resulting in a Dodgers victory.
I’m predicting the Dodgers in 3
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I know it’s a 7 game series, but that’s just how confident I am in our guys.
I agree Mark. All I have been hearing and reading the past few days are how incredible the Brewers bullpen is. Thing is, they haven’t faced a team like ours for a full seven game series, 3 of those games which will be played on consecutive nights. How many times over this season have we ragged on Doc for his bulllpen management, but when you hear him in interviews, he said that alot of his moves were because he used a certain guy two nights in a row, or for multiple innings. The Brewers bullpen are going to have a hard time holding this lineup down over 7 games. Another thing to consider, which I hear J Hair and Nomar talk about from time to time is the number of times you see a certain reliever. He might get you the first couple of times, but the hitter(Nomar was big time good at this)will get his own book on the pitcher the next time he faces him. If they use the bullpen as much as everybody talks about, most of our hitters are going to see the Brewers stud relievers multiple times. And you know they will slip up a time or two, and that’s what the Dodger hitters are always looking for. A huge thing is that Doc has so much depth on his bench, he can force the Brewers to burn some of their relievers by playing match up. That is going to be a critical thing for Counsel, can he hang with our long lineup and bench? I don’t think so, but of course that’s why we play the games. If we play the way we have been lately, this thing is over in 5. That’s right, 5. Don’t believe all the hype. We’re good too.
And here I thought Mark’s blog was the only one relevant. After reading your bombastic rant, Scott, now I’m sure Mark’s blog is the only one worth following. You really need to get a life young man.
This is in response to Dodgerrick who said:
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“I expect that the Dodgers will win the NLCS and agree that they generally have a better roster, but really, comparing bullpens and concluding that the Brewers’ ‘pen is not really any better than the Dodgers – it’s not intellectually honest.
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Brewers’ bullpen
Jeffress (closer) – 8 – 1, 1.29 ERA, .991 WHIP, 89 K in 73 IP, 5 HR allowed
Hader – 6 – 1, 2.43 ERA, .811 WHIP, 143 K (!) in 81 IP, 9 HR
Knebel – 4 – 3, 3.58 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 7 HR in 55 IP
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Dodgers don’t have anyone who pitched as well this year as either Jeffress or Hader. The Kenley Jansen of seasons past is their equal, but this year’s version was 1 – 5, 3.01 ERA, .991 WHIP, 82 K in 71 IP, 13 (!) HR allowed, and the Dodgers don’t have any set-up guys as good as Hader or Knebel.”
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If you go back and read what I said, here it is: “while I know the Milwaukee bullpen is lauded, I really do not believe it is better than the Dodgers bullpen as it is now constructed.”
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If you look at the overall bullpen stats, the two teams are close, but as Rick said Jeffress, Hader and Knebel have been lights out… but that’s not entirely true. While Jeffress has been pretty good and consistent all year, the same is not true with Knebel and Hader. Knebel is up and down:
27.00 ERA in April
3.38 ERA in June
5.25 ERA in July
8.64 ERA in August
0.00 ERA in September and October
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Anone want to make book how he might pitch in October?
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Then there is Hader, whose ERA before August was about 1.50. In August it was 4.73 and in September it was 5.11. Look at how many games their bullpen has pitched:
Jeffress – 73
Jennings – 72
Knebel – 57
Williams -56
Hader – 55
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In all their cases, except Knebel, the innings they have pitched this year are career highs and while Knebel pitched more innings last year, his ERA has doubled this year.
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Now look at the Dodgers. After struggling for over half the season, Pedro Baez finally figured it out and in his last 30 Games, his ERA is 2.27 with a 0.92 WHIP. As a reliever, Caleb Ferguson has a 2.35 ERA. Dylan Floro has a 1.63 ERA as a Dodger.
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Scott Alexander is inconsistent, but I believe the vets like Maeda, Wood and Madson will pitch out their wazzzzooo for this opportunity.
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Finally, factor in how much the Brewers will have to use their pen and in all liklihood, the Dodgers pen will be less exposed. Finally, Jansen started out the season badly after an injury slowed his work. Then he had a heart scare, medicine that slowed him down and a new baby. That was then. THis is October and he looked to be his old self in his last outing. I think the Dodgers bullpen is not nearly as bad as some may think… AND the Brewers pen may not be what they think. Watch and see!
I’m sorry, but who the F%*@ is Scott Andes??
The Brewers are starting Gio on Friday, and Miley on Saturday, like AC said.
And we haven’t done much against both these pitchers, so I don’t see the Brewers going to their pen early, so Roberts can bring in our leftie hitters, or they wouldn’t be starting these two pitchers.
We can pitch around Cain and Christian Y
They cannot pitch around all our good hitters
The longest line up wins.
I see this series as very tough, the Brewers are a very good team, and they will be ready to play. Kershaw in another big game. Let’s see what happens.
I expect that the Dodgers will win the NLCS and agree that they generally have a better roster, but really, comparing bullpens and concluding that the Brewers’ ‘pen is not really any better than the Dodgers – it’s not intellectually honest.
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Brewers’ bullpen
Jeffress (closer) – 8 – 1, 1.29 ERA, .991 WHIP, 89 K in 73 IP, 5 HR allowed
Hader – 6 – 1, 2.43 ERA, .811 WHIP, 143 K (!) in 81 IP, 9 HR
Knebel – 4 – 3, 3.58 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 7 HR in 55 IP
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Dodgers don’t have anyone who pitched as well this year as either Jeffress or Hader. The Kenley Jansen of seasons past is their equal, but this year’s version was 1 – 5, 3.01 ERA, .991 WHIP, 82 K in 71 IP, 13 (!) HR allowed, and the Dodgers don’t have any set-up guys as good as Hader or Knebel.
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The thing that will be fascinating about this series is that the Dodgers will grind out at bats and do what they can to get the starters out of the game early. This actually plays to the Brewers’ strength, as their relievers are better than their starters. So – strength vs. strength – Dodger HR hitters vs. Brewers’ ‘pen.
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And does bullpen fatigue enter into the analysis? They will be playing 5 games in 6 days, and the Brewers got fewer innings from their starters than any team in the post-season. Will their bullpen wilt? The Athletic had an interesting analysis of bullpen fatigue here:
https://theathletic.com/581214/2018/10/11/dodgers-vs-brewers-determining-the-nlcs-winner-could-be-as-easy-as-one-two-three-numbers/
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The key passage:
“So, maybe it’s no surprise that the top seven relievers on the Brewers were third in fatigue units, a measure that Dr. Mike Sonne created to reflect pitches thrown, days of rest, velocity and time between pitches. You can read more about it here and see how the Brewers ranked among postseason teams here.
Fatigue units were created for an insight into how overuse can lead to injury, but it stands to reason that a fatigued reliever is also at risk for losing velocity and effectiveness.”
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The chart that accompanies the article showed that Dodger relievers got a “post-season bump” in velocity (due to adrenaline, no doubt) but that some of the Brewers’ relievers had velocity decreases in the post-season due to overuse and fatigue. As the series progress, I think that this is where the Dodgers will be able to press their advantage. Their superior starting pitching will keep them in games, they will grind out at bats and the Brewers’ ‘pen will wilt due to overuse.
Thinking about next year is the furthest thing from my mind. No way to know what trades/free agency moves will be made that will ultimately effect who’s on the team and who will play where. And what if Mark is right, and there is a DH in the NL? Lots of alternatives/variables. After all, who would have predicted Kemp last year. And while no one above has Machado on the Dodgers next year, that’s not something that I can rule out. In fact, if Machado comes back I could see a scenario where Seager ends up at 1B. Not predicting it, but I think it’s possible.
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Right now I’m focused on what the Dodgers do in the here and now. On paper the Dodgers are the better team. But as we all know, the games aren’t played on paper. It can simply come down to who’s hot, and who’s not.
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As for Utley, the final decision will not be made on sentiment, especially since Utley is beginning to show that father time is becoming part of his baggage. As for Dozier, he’s looked a little better at the plate lately, and at this stage he does have more power than Utley, and is certainly far better defensively.
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I don’t have a clue about Stripling, Urias, and Fields. That’s a decision that the Dodgers make based on information they have and we don’t. And any suggestion that Puig be kept off the roster leaves me scratching my head. His bat is capable, and he can turn a game on his defense alone. Even that delayed steal against Atlanta wasn’t as bad as it seems. If anything, it was a good play that was poorly timed. Puig simply should have stayed put until the catcher threw the ball back to the pitcher. I love Verdugo, but unless there’s another way to get him on the roster, there’s no way he’s going to replace Puig. And if he’s on the team next year (something I still have very deep in the recesses of my mind), I can see him in the same lineup with Puig. In fact, Verdugo, Bellinger and Puig in the outfield together would give the Dodgers three super cannons in the outfield. No one would ever run on Dodgers, and a lot of runners could end up stranded at 3rd.
Joc Pederson’s 10-game postseason hitting streak is the 3rd-longest in Dodgers history, behind A.J. Ellis (12 games) & Carl Crawford (11).
Pederson has exactly one hit in every game, the longest streak of consecutive 1-hit games in MLB postseason history–Bleacher Report.
Cubs blog [bleedcubbieblue] making a case for signing Bryce Harper. They estimate his deal could be 10y/$340-370mil].
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Here’s the crazy part: That would only take him through his age 35 season!
Urias will be one of the Top 3 Starters next year.
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I cannot ever see Stewart starting.
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Ferguson needs another plus pitch to be a starter.
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Chicken Strip is very viable. Wood and Maeda could be traded.
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Santana also needs another pitch
Hey, I know we’re not supposed to be thinking about next year yet but there’s an eternity between games and I find myself mulling our rotation options for 2019. Here’s what I’ve come up with:
1. Kershaw [I am assuming he returns–if not, trading Wood seems less likely]
2. Buehler
3. Hill
4. Maeda [I have him assuming Jansen’s closer role in 2022]
5. Wood [Prime trade bait with one year remaining on contract and others below him]
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6. Stripling [We can’t forget his first half; he’s at least a viable candidate]
7. Urias [Could slip into Wood’s spot]
8. Santana
9. Ferguson
10. Stewart [Just to make it an even ten]
It’d be almost too disrespectful to leave Utley off the roster for NLCS. It surely would be to leave him off for the World Series. Not only has he earned the consideration, he’d also be an asset with more experience than any active player. I fear the bad karma to not have him on the roster.
WHAT IF: Puig got left off the roster and Verdugo got put on instead?
Also, I don’t see Utley making the roster [nor Verdugo], but I could see Stripling or Urias take over Wood’s spot. Madson had a solid NLDS so strangely his spot could be secure. I guess I’ll predict Stripling in & Wood out.
This series almost feels too simple: get the Milwaukee starting pitchers out of the game and wear down their bullpen. Even lockdown relievers are only effective in small doses. Pitch counts, appearances, innings pitched . . . these stats will likely tell the story of the postseason. On paper we have a large advantage in our rotation. On offense, I think we need to make sure we don’t let their top guys beat us. I believe we have more depth and length in our lineup and bench.
Dozier really provides no great value to the NLCS roster. Kike has taken over his right handed bat/position. Dozier does play great defense, and could be an asset late in a game after all of our pinch hitting/double switches, but overall, a good left handed bat would be a better asset, or a good bullpen arm who could strike somebody out in the 6th.
I personally don’t know if I’d start Ryu game 2 or Buehler. Ryu piches similar to Kersh, so maybe splitting them up with a fireball rightie is a smart thing; plus Ryu has like a 1ERA at home. I wonder if we really even need to decide until after game 1 is over anyway. Keep them guessing.