No, this is not a course in the “new math.” Five out of four people struggle with math anyway. However, sometimes you can get better by deleting some pieces. You don’t always have to add pieces to get better. These pieces that you subtract may be pieces that most people view as essential, but in reality, they may not be that at all.
Now, I am certain that Andrew Friedman is not done dealing, but even if he were and with all due respect to Kyle Farmer, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Alex Wood, the 2019 Dodgers might be better than the 2018 model… and that even includes the possible likely loss of Yasmani Grandal.
I can cite you a current case whereby a team became better after subtraction, simply because that subtraction allowed other players to flourish. That case is the 2018-2019 Indianapolis Colts, who, before the season started, were picked by many to be the worst team in the NFL. Of course, a lot of things had to happen first:
1. Josh McDaniel, who was to be introduced as head coach, abruptly withdrew on the day he was to be introduced as head coach;
2. Frank Reich, who not one of the five finalists for head coach was quickly hired;
3. With it’s first pick, the team drafted a guard “A guard – what the what? You don’t draft guards that high.” The local media was aghast!
4. They also drafted a unheralded linebacker named Darius Leonard in the second round. The local media ridiculed the pick.
5. Then, on the last days of training camp they cut (YES, CUT) their best defensive player (John Simon). The local media wanted someones’ head. “Cutting your best defensive player, what are they thinking?”
The Colts started out 1-5, but in one of the losses they were in a position to tie the game… but went for the win instead… and failed. That would prove to be a huge turning point. The team knew the coach had their back, and believed in them. The Guard taken in the first round, Quentin Nelson, set the tone for the offensive line and they went from allowing the most sacks in 2017-2018, to allowing the fewest sacks in 2018-2019 in the entire NFL. Of course, it didn’t hurt that Andrew Luck was back after two years and better than ever.
Darius Leonard stepped in as their defensive leader. He is called The Maniac and he led the NFL in tackles… by 19! Both he and Nelson are All-Pros and Leonard is the Defensive Rookie of the Year and should be the Defensive MVP. The Colts proceeded to go 9-1 after the 1-5 start and play Saturday in the first round of the playoffs. They are a team that no one wants to face and in fact, some of the national media are predicting they will play in the Super Bowl.
They were not supposed to be this good, this quick. Of course, I am a big Colts fan, but even I predicted 6 or maybe 7 wins… because I am an optimist. No one saw this coming. No only did they jettison John Simon, but they released or let go most of the team from 2017-2018. They let the youngsters play… and play they did.
Now, I am not saying The Farmer Trade is like this, but even if the Dodgers stay the same, they are young and have plenty of room to grow. There is a great blend of youth and experience on the team. Kaybear Ruiz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo, Will Smith and a plethora of rookie pitchers are nearing ready. Losing Puig and Kemp may be a great blessing. Wood may be a push and Farmer is not a loss.
If nothing else happens, it will still take two or three years to determine the success of the trade… UNLESS the Dodgers make another trade or signing. I’m talking about Alex Castellanos or some such player. Bryce Harper is going back to DC (I told you that a couple of days ago). The Indians want too much for Kluber and the Marlins want too much for JT Realmuto (at least right now), and I can’t see another 2B helping the team.
Let them play. Friedman has confidence in this team. So does Roberts, and they are giving them more tools to play the game starting with RVS and the creation of a new hitting culture. The guys in the Colts front office, led by Chris Ballard sure as heck knew what they were doing and the Dodgers Front Office has even more experience, led by Andrew Friedman.
You can point to all the Kazmirs, McCarthys, Andersons, Oliveras, Reddicks and Grandersons and say “SEE HE’S NOT SO GREAT!” REALLY? In his four years he has rebuilt a lagging farm system, over 70% of the roster were players acquired under his tenure, and taken his team to the World Series the past two years. All without blowing up the team or tanking. NO OTHER TEAM IN ALL OF BASEBALL CAN SAY THAT!
To those of you who dislike Friedman, I suggest you get on the train. He’s driving it and it’s headed the right direction, no matter how you slice or spin it. The Royals, Marlins and Padres are looking for fans. Go for it.
FINAL PARTING SHOT: Don’t bet against the Colts!
Discussion (58)
Disagree, not disagreeable
Maybe the Yankees have decided to eschew the CBT and will blow by it with the signing of Britton, Machado and Ottavino. The Yankees realize they cannot allow the hated Red Sox to win the division again and it appears they are willing to do just about anything to position themselves into at least winning the off season and then the regular season.
Meanwhile at 1000 Vin Scully Way we hear “crickets” but hey we’ve got Quackenbush, Joel Ibarra, Eric Carter, Cameron Perkins, Shane Patterson and Adam McCreery to look forward to seeing what they can do in ST and at OKC.
Like others I realize this team doesn’t need “sweeping changes” and I don’t want the team to make a move to just make a move, but lets get real for a moment….do we really think Barnes is an everyday ML catcher? Many one year- “stop-gap” catching options have been signed, the team could use LeMahieu at 2B and perhaps some more SP. I’m hoping Friedman is playing poker with someone and a move or two is being worked out.
NYY is signing Zach Britton for 3 years at $39MM plus an option ($14MM). There is an opt out after year 2. But that contract will take NYY over the CBT threshold. That by itself is no big deal, but it sure will make NYY think hard about Machado or Harper. NYY is also in on Ottavino.
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Apparently NYY believes in a lock up bullpen.
OK, this is for Ritchie:
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Marlins trade Realmuto and Castro for May, Barnes, Peters, Alvarez and Carrillo-
… and overpay to keep Verdugo and Ruiz.
Yea, looks like Indy got it together at just the right time.
Danny presents some good points and I would hope that Verdugos changing agents and his working with Reyes signals that he wants a change. I have said that his upside is Tony Gwynn and I really believe he posseses that unique Bat-To-Ball Contact that few players posess. However, his coachs and teammates (who have been reluctant to say much due to his demeanor and status) are very frustrated at him many times.
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I think he is capable of being better than Nick Markakis, and I think his power is higher than we have seen and that does not include what RVS might do with him.
Colts look tough! Hitting on all cylinders, taking good chances.
Houston: You have a problem!
What if we offered to take Castro and his 12MM salary in a trade for Realmuto? Certainly Marlins demand would lessen because we saved them $12MM + Realmuto’s salary whatever that may be in 2019($5MM?) Would that total still keep us under?
So I’m confused…….
If other teams don’t want Verdugo, or he is valued higher by the Dodgers than other teams (something I asked a few days ago), why did the Dodgers trade Puig (one of the best defensive RF’ers in MLB) and essentially tell Verdugo RF is yours to loose.
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And if Verdugo is anything close to Tony Gwinn (Mark) he should be un-touchable from the Dodgers perspective.
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But if Verdugo is the most over rated prospect in baseball (ESPN), there must be two different Verdugo’s everyone is talking about!
The addition by subtraction model works if the players who leave are replaced by better players.
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So we are to believe that :
1 – Verdugo will be better than Puig in RF?
2 – The payroll cleared by the Farmer trade will go to players who will contribute more than Puig, Kemp and Wood.
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No evidence of any of that yet. It may happen but hasn’t yet. And as frustrating has Puig has been at times, he has been the Dodgers best RF since Raul Mondesi and Shawn Green.
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As far as 2B is concerned, all of the defensive ratings are in small sample sizes. Muncy doesn’t pass the eyeball test at 2B. He has a limited range and lacks the body flexibility needed to play well at 2B. Of the 3, Kike plays the best 2B in my opinion. Think about it this way – AC says Muncy is a bad defensive 1B – but he’ll be able to play the tougher position at 2B, a position requiring more speed, agility, better hands and better foot work?
The more I hear random trade suggestions from you ladies and gents on this board the more I’m glad Andrew Friedman is in charge of the Dodgers and not half of us!
1. Okay, I acquiesce regarding Taylor at second. I was thinking that if he had more time there his defense would improve.
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2. I seem to be more right than most everybody else on Puig and Verdugo. MJ was also never all that high on Verdugo either.
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3. Okay again, I have been convinced, Muncy should be the second baseman and Taylor the CFer and Belli the 1st baseman.
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4. If it is true that Friedman likes Joc then I would rather have him in agreement with me than all of the naysayers here.
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5. Great BA article in the last thread and I learned a lot from it. I learn from everybody here as well. But, I still prefer defense up the middle over offense from the catcher position. That position gets banged up and worn out to be a key offensive key. I will take Smith over Ruiz at catcher. Always have, always will.
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6. Ruiz, Barnes, Rios, Alvarez for Realmuto. Realmuto and Smith to start the season for the Dodgers.
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7. Verdugo, Maeda, White, Peters, Santana for Haniger.
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3B Turner
SS Seager
RF Hanager
1B Bellinger
C Realmuto
LF Pederson
CF Taylor
2B Muncy
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Kershaw, Buehler, Ryu, Stripling, Hill with Urias, May, Stewart (yes, put him on the 25)
Both Mark and AC are right about Taylor at second base!
Actually Taylor is a better shortstop then second baseman, and because he has played shortstop so much, he is much more comfortable on the left side of the infield.
I think Taylor is a good centerfielder too, and really, Cody is just a little bit better, if that.
But remember Cody played in center much more then Taylor did last year, and Taylor played more in the infield then Cody last year.
And that does make a big difference.
I prefer Cody at first because he is such an athletic first baseman, and because of that, he makes our infield even better.
And I think Cody’s bat might be better if he is playing first regularly too.
I also wonder if Cody can stay in center after he gets a little older, and fills out more.
And like AC pointed out, Muncy had better numbers at second then Taylor and Kike.
And Muncy is not as slow as some think, in fact Muncy is faster then both Joc and Verdugo, and just behind Kike, so his extra weight is deceiving.
I would have Muncy play second, and have someone replace him defensively, in games we have a decent lead.
But really Muncy didn’t hurt us at second much at all last year, even though he didn’t always look as athletic, as some second baseman.
I saw that article in Baseball America too, thanks to Bluto, and I wondered out loud, like some here today too, about Verdugo.
I didn’t see Verdugo on the Taxi club during the post season, and I thought that was odd, unless I just missed him.
But Hawkeye had already said the other big prospect guy from ESPN I believe, said that Verdugo was the most over rated prosect in baseball.
He is so young so I truly don’t know what to think, and I have not seen him play everyday, so I can’t make a fair judgment myself.
But of course, this is not the first I have heard something about Verdugo, when it comes to this stuff.
I did remember AC saying Verdugo was messing with Toles in between innings, when the outfielders throw the ball around, after Toles first came back, after being out.
Maybe the reason Verdugo hasn’t been traded is that other teams don’t want him… not that Friedman won’t trade him. His attitude has always been questioned.
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I know someone who knows his dad and says he’s a piece of … work.
I lost interest with the Colts analogy, it took a lot of words to paint that picture (and yes I read a lot). Then when you turned to the Dodgers you had these two statements:
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Ruiz, Gavin Lux, Alex Verdugo, Will Smith and a plethora of rookie pitchers are nearing ready……
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if nothing else happens, it will take two or three years to determine the success of the trade…
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The two logically don’t go together; nearing ready and two to three years?
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I’m hoping Freidman keeps the Dodger train pointed in the right direction, but I don’t have as high opinion of A. Freidman as some, and I have a somewhat low opinion of the group that owns the Dodger train and gives direction to the driver (Freidman).
Evidently Verdugo’s biggest obstacle is still himself. According to BA:
He stays dialed in at the plate, but an indifferent attitude affects the rest of his game. He has average speed and gets good jumps in right field when he’s focused, but he often isn’t and lets balls drop that shouldn’t. His slow motor also shows up on the bases, frustrating teammates and coaches alike.
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The Future: Verdugo has the potential to be a high-average, moderate power outfielder like Nick Markakis, but only if he improves his effort.
1. Why do people think Taylor is a good 2B? He has very little experience there and his fielding percentage there is bad.
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2. With his arm he may be better in RF. His arm is like Puig.
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3. OK
4. They would like Ruiz but the Dodgers won’t trade him. Alvarez is a head case and White has never been healthy so I doubt Miami would want either as a centerpiece.
5. If you put one more piece in that trade, Seattle might do it. That piece is Pederson.
1. Taylor will play second unless there is a trade or a signing.
2. Bellinger will be either CFer or 1B and no where else.
3. Muncy will be the first baseman unless a new player joins the team and then he might move to 2nd.
4. Ruiz, Alvarez, and White seems to best match up to Miami’s 2021 needs and thus have the best chance to land Realmuto.
5. Verdugo, Rios, and Maeda would help Seattle more than Haniger would alone.
The Dodger site had a link to the fastest player in each team’s organization. Morales was the top Dodger down in Class A. The Nats have made a few trades and signed a couple of free agents and still have a chance to re-sign Harper. They have speed as well:
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Nationals: Victor Robles, OF, (WSH No. 1; MLB No. 4)
Robles’ near elite sprint speed of 29.3 feet per second was the second-best Statcast™ among Nats big leaguers last season, trailing only Trea Turner (30.1). Those wheels make the 21-year-old a true burner out of the right-handed batter’s box as well as in center field, where he has range for days. On the basepaths, Robles is an aggressive but unrefined basestealer with a 74 percent success rate (129 steals in 174 attempts) in five Minor League seasons.
Likely 2019 level: Washington Nationals
Sitting here waiting for the authorities to release us to walk the gangplank. While I am waiting, would you trade Verdugo and Rios for Realmuto?
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That’s a tough one. Would Miami? I doubt it. But Detroit might take that for Castellanos.
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Bellinger might have to play RF in that case. His arm plays well there.
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1. Taylor CF
2. Seager SS
3. Turner 3B
4. Casty LF
5. Belli RF
6. Kike 2B
7. Muncy 1B
8. Barney C